Matching Items (980)
Description
This dissertation develops a framework for the analysis of fiscal sustainability among U.S. local governments. Fiscal sustainability is defined as a type of fiscal condition that allows a government to continue service provision now and in the future without introducing disruptive revenue or expenditure patterns. An assessment of local fiscal sustainability is based on three types of indicators: pension liability funding, debt burden, and budgetary balance. Three main factors affect a government's long-term financial condition: government structure, financial structure and performance, and local economic base. This dissertation uses a combination of the U.S. Census Bureau Annual Survey of Government Finances and Employment, the U.S. Census Bureau Decennial Census, the Bureau of Labor Statistics data, and the Government Finance Officers Association financial indicators database to study the effects of the three factors on local fiscal sustainability. It is a pioneer effort to use government-wide accounting information from Comprehensive Annual Financial Reports to predict local fiscal sustainability status. The results of econometric models suggest that pension liability funding is most affected by the size of government, debt burden is most strongly associated with the size of local economic base; and budgetary balance is influenced by the degree of local own-source revenue diversification.
ContributorsGorina, Evgenia (Author) / Chapman, Jeffrey I. (Thesis advisor) / Herbst, Chris M. (Committee member) / Miller, Gerald J (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2013
Description
ABSTRACT
This research reveals how governments cut budgets during fiscal crises and what pattern may emerge based on the cuts. It addresses a significant gap in literature by looking into the details of an agency for a full recession period to explain how cutback requirements were met. Through investigating a large Arizona state agency during the 2008 recession in the United States, the research reveals that cutback management is a stage-by-stage process lagging the immediate deterioration of the state’s economy and that patterns found among cuts are more often rational than not.
Cutbacks in this agency proceeded through three stages: the beginning, middle and the end period of cuts. In each stage, the author used descriptive analysis, process map analysis and cause and effect analysis to explore the features of cuts made. These methods of analysis were used to break down an annual budget reduction into original appropriation budget cuts, mid year reductions and the final budget cuts required to end the fiscal year in balance. In addition, the analytical methods permitted more detailed analysis of specific appropriation line items. The information used was secondary data collected from seven fiscal years around the recession and from various sources, including budgetary materials, legislation, accounting materials and many program reports related to budget cuts.
The findings suggested that across-the-board cuts are implemented at the beginning of cutback stage mainly to non-mandatory programs without jeopardizing the core functions of the agency. Later, in the middle period of the recession, selective cuts are made on large programs. Fund transfers and excess balance transfers are also preferred to reduce the budgets of other restricted funds. At the end stage of budget cuts, new revenue sources are established to support programs which had relied on general fund revenues in the past.
Overall, the cutback process observed in this research reflects decremental and rational patterns of decision making, contrasting with the randomness observed in previous research on cutback management. Across the board cuts are decremental; the remainders are rational, even strategic decisions. This investigation reminds researchers to be aware of the context and the level of observation when analyzing cutbacks.
This research reveals how governments cut budgets during fiscal crises and what pattern may emerge based on the cuts. It addresses a significant gap in literature by looking into the details of an agency for a full recession period to explain how cutback requirements were met. Through investigating a large Arizona state agency during the 2008 recession in the United States, the research reveals that cutback management is a stage-by-stage process lagging the immediate deterioration of the state’s economy and that patterns found among cuts are more often rational than not.
Cutbacks in this agency proceeded through three stages: the beginning, middle and the end period of cuts. In each stage, the author used descriptive analysis, process map analysis and cause and effect analysis to explore the features of cuts made. These methods of analysis were used to break down an annual budget reduction into original appropriation budget cuts, mid year reductions and the final budget cuts required to end the fiscal year in balance. In addition, the analytical methods permitted more detailed analysis of specific appropriation line items. The information used was secondary data collected from seven fiscal years around the recession and from various sources, including budgetary materials, legislation, accounting materials and many program reports related to budget cuts.
The findings suggested that across-the-board cuts are implemented at the beginning of cutback stage mainly to non-mandatory programs without jeopardizing the core functions of the agency. Later, in the middle period of the recession, selective cuts are made on large programs. Fund transfers and excess balance transfers are also preferred to reduce the budgets of other restricted funds. At the end stage of budget cuts, new revenue sources are established to support programs which had relied on general fund revenues in the past.
Overall, the cutback process observed in this research reflects decremental and rational patterns of decision making, contrasting with the randomness observed in previous research on cutback management. Across the board cuts are decremental; the remainders are rational, even strategic decisions. This investigation reminds researchers to be aware of the context and the level of observation when analyzing cutbacks.
ContributorsLiu, Xiaoqing (Author) / Miller, Gerald J (Thesis advisor) / Eden, Catherine R (Committee member) / Cayer, N Joseph (Committee member) / Lan, Zhiyong (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2018
Description
This dissertation establishes a national exploration into the subnational fiscal policies of the United States at the county level of government. This dissertation begins a dialog about county fiscal practices and examines budget stabilization policies of county governments across the country and studies how county governments are codifying the action of setting funds aside for use during times of need. The study moves from the descriptive analysis of counties and explore quantitatively the effects of county government general fund balances and reserve practices over time and documents the reserves, revenue and expenditures of 43 counties across the United States over a five-year period, fiscal years 2012-2016 and utilizes a panel data, fixed-effects model taking into account the political, policy and service-bundles of the counties. Finally, the use of cash rather than debt for capital expenditures also known as pay-as-you-go (PAYGO) is explored through a case study of Maricopa County, Arizona. It examines the theoretical question of intergenerational equity in the funding of capital assets. The study examines Maricopa County's technical, administrative and political pillars of PAYGO, analyzing the financial and budget documents as well as presentation materials given in public meetings regarding the economic and financial condition of both the county government and the county.
ContributorsFlick, Angie (Author) / Reilly, Thomas (Thesis advisor) / Miller, Gerald J (Committee member) / Singla, Akheil (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2018
Description
Government revenue forecasting errors have become larger, especially in exceptional times such as the periods surrounding economic recessions. Inaccurate revenue estimates stem from unanticipated revenue increases or decreases from a previous trend. Unfortunately, current forecasting methods relying primarily on trend analysis do not incorporate these kinds of sudden changes easily. When revenue punctuations occur, the revenue forecasting errors increase.
To reduce forecasting errors caused by revenue punctuations in government revenue collections, I argued that analysts must not dismiss outliers as extraneous or useless phenomena. My research revealed an approach to incorporate outliers or punctuations into revenue forecasting. First, this research studied the criterion for judging the appearance of revenue punctuations using state governments’ quarterly collections of the five largest taxes from 1977 to 2016. Second, the research explored the patterns of these revenue punctuations, specifically the relationship between the changes in dollar amount and the amount of time from one revenue punctuation to another.
Inspired by the few statistical techniques for identifying outliers, this research applied the studentized residuals method to detect the revenue punctuations. The result revealed that all five tax categories for each state have revenue punctuations, except Motor Fuels Tax in the state of Tennessee.
Furthermore, this research disclosed that while not all the states and all the tax categories have statistically significant relationships between the depth and length of revenue punctuations, some states still have valid relationships. For the states that have statistically significant relationships, a forecaster, knowing depth, could calculate length and vice versa. Thus, the forecasting errors caused by revenue punctuations could be reduced when the protocols my research identified are used.
To reduce forecasting errors caused by revenue punctuations in government revenue collections, I argued that analysts must not dismiss outliers as extraneous or useless phenomena. My research revealed an approach to incorporate outliers or punctuations into revenue forecasting. First, this research studied the criterion for judging the appearance of revenue punctuations using state governments’ quarterly collections of the five largest taxes from 1977 to 2016. Second, the research explored the patterns of these revenue punctuations, specifically the relationship between the changes in dollar amount and the amount of time from one revenue punctuation to another.
Inspired by the few statistical techniques for identifying outliers, this research applied the studentized residuals method to detect the revenue punctuations. The result revealed that all five tax categories for each state have revenue punctuations, except Motor Fuels Tax in the state of Tennessee.
Furthermore, this research disclosed that while not all the states and all the tax categories have statistically significant relationships between the depth and length of revenue punctuations, some states still have valid relationships. For the states that have statistically significant relationships, a forecaster, knowing depth, could calculate length and vice versa. Thus, the forecasting errors caused by revenue punctuations could be reduced when the protocols my research identified are used.
ContributorsWang, Dan, Ph.D (Author) / Miller, Gerald J (Thesis advisor) / Lan, Gerald, Zhiyong (Committee member) / Wilson, Jeffery R (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2018
Description
With the new independence of adulthood, college students are a group susceptible to adopting unsupported, if not harmful, health practices. A survey of Arizona State University undergraduate students (N=200) was conducted to evaluate supplement use, trust in information sources, and beliefs about supplement regulation. Of those who reported using supplements, college students most frequently received information from friends and family. STEM majors in fields unrelated to health who were taking a supplement were found to be less likely to receive information about the supplement from a medical practitioner than those in health fields or those in non-STEM majors (-26.9%, p=0.018). STEM majors in health-related fields were 15.0% more likely to treat colds and/or cold symptoms with research-supported methods identified from reliable sources, while non-health STEM and non-STEM majors were more likely to take unsupported cold treatments (p=0.010). Surveyed students, regardless of major, also stated they would trust a medical practitioner for supplement advice above other sources (88.0%), and the majority expressed a belief that dietary supplements are approved/regulated by the government (59.8%).
ContributorsPerez, Jacob Tanner (Author) / Hendrickson, Kirstin (Thesis director) / Lefler, Scott (Committee member) / College of Liberal Arts and Sciences (Contributor) / School of Molecular Sciences (Contributor) / Department of Physics (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2018-05
ContributorsChandler, N. Kayla (Author) / Neisewander, Janet (Thesis director) / Sanabria, Federico (Committee member) / Olive, M. Foster (Committee member) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor) / College of Liberal Arts and Sciences (Contributor)
Created2013-05
Description
I propose that norms regulate behaviors that negatively impact an individual's survival and reproduction. But because monitoring and enforcing of norms can be costly, individuals should be selective about which norms they police and under what circumstances they should do so. Two studies tested this idea by experimentally activating fitness-relevant motives and having participants answer questions about the policing of norms. The first study examined a norm prescribing respect for status and another proscribing sexual coercion. Results from Study 1 failed to support the hypotheses; activating a status-seeking motive did not have the predicted effects on policing of the respect-status norm nor did activating a mating motive have the predicted effects on policing of the respect-status norm or anti-coercion norm. Study 2 examined two new norms, one prescribing that people stay home when sick and the other proscribing people from having sex with another person's partners. Study 2 also manipulated whether self or others were the target of the policing. Study 2 failed to provide support; a disease avoidance motive failed to have effects on policing of the stay home when sick norm. Individuals in a relationship under a mating motive wanted less policing of others for violation of the mate poaching norm than those in a baseline condition, opposite of the predicted effects.
ContributorsSmith, M. Kristopher (Author) / Neuberg, L. Steven (Thesis director) / Presson, Clark (Committee member) / Hruschka, J. Daniel (Committee member) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor) / College of Liberal Arts and Sciences (Contributor)
Created2013-05
Description
Literature in public administration emphasizes a growing dissatisfaction with government on the part of residents. Where there tends to be a lack in the literature is in terms of solutions to this problem. We would like to argue that the engagement process itself has the power to foster a profound attitudinal shift on the part of both residents and government. This paper explores the structural and cultural barriers to satisfactory public engagement both from literature and a combination of policy analysis, semi-structured interviews and participatory observation within the City of Tempe. We then provide recommendations to the City of Tempe on how to overcome these barriers and effect authentic public engagement practices. With these new suggested practices and mindsets, we provide a way that people can have the power to create their own community.
ContributorsRiffle, Morgan (Co-author) / Tchida, Celina (Co-author) / Ingram-Waters, Mary (Thesis director) / Grzanka, Patrick (Committee member) / King, Cheryl (Committee member) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor) / College of Liberal Arts and Sciences (Contributor)
Created2013-05
Description
This thesis examines the relationship between unofficial, official, and parallel Islam in Uzbekistan following the end of the Soviet Union. Key touchstone moments in Uzbekistan during the twentieth-century show the history between unofficial and official Islam and the resulting precedents set for Muslims gathering against the government. This historical analysis shows how President Karimov and the Uzbek government view and approach Islam in the country following independence.
ContributorsTieslink, Evan (Author) / Batalden, Stephen (Thesis director) / Kefeli, Agnes (Committee member) / Saikia, Yasmin (Committee member) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor) / College of Liberal Arts and Sciences (Contributor) / School of Politics and Global Studies (Contributor) / School of Historical, Philosophical and Religious Studies (Contributor)
Created2013-05
Description
Through this creative project, I executed a Distracted Driving Awareness Campaign at Arizona State University to raise awareness about the dangers of distracted driving, specifically texting while driving. As an Undergraduate Student Government Senator, my priority is the safety and success of students, both in and out of the classroom. By partnering with State Farm and AT&T, we were able to raise awareness about the dangers of distracted driving and collected over 200 pledges from students to never text and drive.
ContributorsHibbs, Jordan Ashley (Author) / Miller, Clark (Thesis director) / Parmentier, Mary Jane (Committee member) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor) / College of Liberal Arts and Sciences (Contributor) / School of Politics and Global Studies (Contributor) / Department of Psychology (Contributor) / Graduate College (Contributor)
Created2014-05