Ambient air temperatures are expected to increase in the US desert southwest by 1-5 °C mid-century which will strain the electric power grid through increased loads, reduced power capacities, efficiencies, and material lifespans. To better understand and quantify this risk, a power infrastructure failure model is created to estimate changes in outage rates of components for increases in air temperatures in Arizona. Components analyzed include generation, transmission lines, and substations, because their outages can lead to cascading failures and interruptions of other critical infrastructure systems such as water, transportation, and information/communication technology. Preliminary results indicate that components could require maintenance or replacement up to 3 times more often due to mechanical failures, outages could occur up to 30 times more often due to overcurrent tripping, and the probability of cascading failures could increase 30 times as well for a 1 °C increase in ambient air temperature. Preventative measures can include infrastructure upgrades to more thermal resistant parts, installation of cooling systems, smart grid power flow controls, and expanding programs for demand side management and customer energy efficiency.

Climate change could significantly affect consumer demand for energy in buildings, as changing temperatures may alter heating and cooling loads. Warming climates could also lead to the increased adoption and use of cooling technologies in buildings. We assess residential electricity and natural gas demand in Los Angeles, California under multiple climate change projections and investigate the potential for energy efficiency to offset increased demand. We calibrate residential energy use against metered data, accounting for differences in building materials and appliances. Under temperature increases, we find that without policy intervention, residential electricity demand could increase by as much as 41–87% between 2020 and 2060. However, aggressive policies aimed at upgrading heating/cooling systems and appliances could result in electricity use increases as low as 28%, potentially avoiding the installation of new generation capacity. We therefore recommend aggressive energy efficiency, in combination with low-carbon generation sources, to offset projected increases in residential energy demand.