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- Creators: Beethoven, Ludwig van, 1770-1827
ContributorsBeethoven, Ludwig van, 1770-1827 (Composer)
ContributorsBeethoven, Ludwig van, 1770-1827 (Composer)
Description
Before 1990s, the relationship between money supply and inflation was positively correlated, however, from 1990 onwards, the US and other major developed countries entered into a new financial era with a typical belief that hyper money supply coexisted with lower inflation. This phenomenon is called “the paradox of inflation”. Traditional theories cannot provide reasonable explanations of this new phenomenon.
In my study, I have taken the linear filtering techniques which Lucas developed in 1980, and the recursive estimation method, as well as the chow test and F-test, and choose the data of the US, Britain, Japan, Germany, Euro area, BRICKs and some members of ASEAN, from 1960 to 2012, to study the relationship between annual rate of M2 growth and CPI inflation. The results show that in most sample developed and developing countries the positive correlation relationship between money supply and inflation began to weaken since the 1990s, and “the paradox of inflation” is now a common phenomenon.
In my paper, I attempt to provide a new explanation of “the paradox of inflation”. I conjecture that, in the past two decades, some advanced countries were becoming a “relatively wealthy society”, which means that commodity supply as well as money supply is abundant. I state that the US is a “relatively wealthy society” and try to determine what features could mark a “relatively wealthy society”.
I choose the credit growth rate of nonfinancial sectors and the ratio of dividends to investment to represent the production inclination of the business sector, and choose the income per capita and the GINI index to represent the consumption inclination of the resident sector. Then, through a semi parametric varying-coefficient regression model, I found that, in the US, when the credit growth of the business sector is under 5%, the ratio of dividends to investment is over 0.20, the per capita income is more than $30,000, and the GINI index is over 0.45, the country becomes a “relatively wealthy society”.
Base on this new explanation, I can conclude “in the relatively wealthy society, inflation is no longer a monetary phenomenon; it is a wealth allocation phenomenon”.
In my study, I have taken the linear filtering techniques which Lucas developed in 1980, and the recursive estimation method, as well as the chow test and F-test, and choose the data of the US, Britain, Japan, Germany, Euro area, BRICKs and some members of ASEAN, from 1960 to 2012, to study the relationship between annual rate of M2 growth and CPI inflation. The results show that in most sample developed and developing countries the positive correlation relationship between money supply and inflation began to weaken since the 1990s, and “the paradox of inflation” is now a common phenomenon.
In my paper, I attempt to provide a new explanation of “the paradox of inflation”. I conjecture that, in the past two decades, some advanced countries were becoming a “relatively wealthy society”, which means that commodity supply as well as money supply is abundant. I state that the US is a “relatively wealthy society” and try to determine what features could mark a “relatively wealthy society”.
I choose the credit growth rate of nonfinancial sectors and the ratio of dividends to investment to represent the production inclination of the business sector, and choose the income per capita and the GINI index to represent the consumption inclination of the resident sector. Then, through a semi parametric varying-coefficient regression model, I found that, in the US, when the credit growth of the business sector is under 5%, the ratio of dividends to investment is over 0.20, the per capita income is more than $30,000, and the GINI index is over 0.45, the country becomes a “relatively wealthy society”.
Base on this new explanation, I can conclude “in the relatively wealthy society, inflation is no longer a monetary phenomenon; it is a wealth allocation phenomenon”.
ContributorsCao, Tong (Author) / Prescott, Edward C. (Thesis advisor) / Liu, Jun (Thesis advisor) / Chun, Chang (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2015
Description
This study seeks to develop a framework that can help firms in China’s guarantee industry to better identify and prevent risk when they offer guarantee services to small and medium-sized enterprises (SME). With the continuously increasing demands of SME financing, the guarantee industry has developed rapidly in China. Meanwhile, the turmoil in global financial markets and the significant slowdown of global economy have started to have a negative impact on China’s economy, increasing the risk exposure of China’s guarantee industry. In this context, risk identification and prevention becomes the core competence of a guarantee company. Based on a review of the existing research, two in-depth case studies, and the author’s personal experiences in this industry, this paper does not only provide a comprehensive list of the risks that guarantee firms face in China but also measures for risk identification and prevention.
This thesis is organized as follows. First, I provide a brief description about the emergence and development of China’s guarantee industry, as well as its current status. Next, I explain what kinds of risks faced by guarantee firms in China that influence their performance and survival, and summarize the various external and internal risk factors. I also conduct one in-depth case analysis to illustrate how a guarantee firm can better identify the risks it is exposed to. Next, on the basis of another in-depth case analysis, I develop a framework that can help guarantee firms to systematically develop effective measures of risk identification and prevention. I conclude with a discussion of this study’s implications for guarantee firms and the regulatory governmental agencies in China.
This thesis is organized as follows. First, I provide a brief description about the emergence and development of China’s guarantee industry, as well as its current status. Next, I explain what kinds of risks faced by guarantee firms in China that influence their performance and survival, and summarize the various external and internal risk factors. I also conduct one in-depth case analysis to illustrate how a guarantee firm can better identify the risks it is exposed to. Next, on the basis of another in-depth case analysis, I develop a framework that can help guarantee firms to systematically develop effective measures of risk identification and prevention. I conclude with a discussion of this study’s implications for guarantee firms and the regulatory governmental agencies in China.
ContributorsWu, Daorong (Author) / Shen, Wei (Thesis advisor) / Liu, Jun (Thesis advisor) / Chang, Chun (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2016
Description
Informal finance in this paper refers to the financing activities of individuals or households to borrow money through channels other than formal financial institutions such as commercial banks. Using data from China Household Finance Survey (CHFS) conducted by Southwestern University of Finance and Economics (SWUFE) and the People's Bank of China, this paper employs Probit model to analyze the factors that may influence the financing needs of Chinese households and factors that influence their likelihood of obtaining loans from formal financial institutions versus from informal channels. Results show that household wealth, family structure, and household head’s characteristics are the major factors that influence their financing needs. Moreover, the results suggest that (a) richer families are more likely to obtain loans from formal financial channels while poorer families are more likely to do so from informal channels; (b) families with stronger social ties are more likely to obtain loans from formal financial channels, but this relationship is weaker in regions where the financial market is more competitive;and (c) the increase of formal financial services is positively related to the probability of households obtaining formal finance, but has no relationship with the probability of households obtaining informal finance. These findings have important implications for finance policy making.
ContributorsZhang, Linchao (Author) / Shen, Wei (Thesis advisor) / Chen, Xiaoping (Thesis advisor) / Liu, Jun (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2016
Description
This thesis investigates whether mergers and acquisitions (M&As) help increase the competitive advantage and core competency of Chinese securities companies. Although M&As among Chinese securities companies were almost exclusively guided by the Chinese government in the earlier years, they have increasingly become more market-driven in recent years. Many large Chinese securities companies have engaged in horizontal mergers, cross-industry mergers, and cross-border mergers to increase their market positions. However, there is little up-to-date evidence about how these market-driven M&As influence the competitive advantage and core competency of securities companies in China. I seek to fill this gap by conducting a systematic analysis about whether M&As increase the core competency of the acquiring companies using data collected over a five-year window from 2010 to 2014.
On the basis of prior research findings and the current situation of the Chinese securities industry, I first develop a theoretical model about the sources of competitive advantage for Chinese securities companies, and then compile a comprehensive list of observable indicators that can be used to assess a Chinese securities company’s core competency. Next, I conduct a quantitative analysis to assess the core competency and relative market positions of the leading Chinese securities companies using data from 2010 to 2014. Overall, the results suggest that market-driven M&As increases the core competency of the acquiring securities companies. I then conduct four in-depth case analyses to better understand the mechanisms through which M&As can help increase the acquiring firms' core competency. I conclude with a discussion of the findings and their implications for Chinese securities companies and the overseeing governmental agencies.
On the basis of prior research findings and the current situation of the Chinese securities industry, I first develop a theoretical model about the sources of competitive advantage for Chinese securities companies, and then compile a comprehensive list of observable indicators that can be used to assess a Chinese securities company’s core competency. Next, I conduct a quantitative analysis to assess the core competency and relative market positions of the leading Chinese securities companies using data from 2010 to 2014. Overall, the results suggest that market-driven M&As increases the core competency of the acquiring securities companies. I then conduct four in-depth case analyses to better understand the mechanisms through which M&As can help increase the acquiring firms' core competency. I conclude with a discussion of the findings and their implications for Chinese securities companies and the overseeing governmental agencies.
ContributorsWang, Lijuan (Author) / Shen, Wei (Thesis advisor) / Qian, Jun (Thesis advisor) / Liu, Jun (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2016
ContributorsBeethoven, Ludwig van, 1770-1827 (Composer)
ContributorsBeethoven, Ludwig van, 1770-1827 (Composer)
ContributorsBeethoven, Ludwig van, 1770-1827 (Composer)