Matching Items (3)
127901-Thumbnail Image.png
Description

Atmospheric CO2 inversions estimate surface carbon fluxes from an optimal fit to atmospheric CO2 measurements, usually including prior constraints on the flux estimates. Eleven sets of carbon flux estimates are compared, generated by different inversions systems that vary in their inversions methods, choice of atmospheric data, transport model and prior

Atmospheric CO2 inversions estimate surface carbon fluxes from an optimal fit to atmospheric CO2 measurements, usually including prior constraints on the flux estimates. Eleven sets of carbon flux estimates are compared, generated by different inversions systems that vary in their inversions methods, choice of atmospheric data, transport model and prior information. The inversions were run for at least 5 yr in the period between 1990 and 2010. Mean fluxes for 2001–2004, seasonal cycles, interannual variability and trends are compared for the tropics and northern and southern extra-tropics, and separately for land and ocean. Some continental/basin-scale subdivisions are also considered where the atmospheric network is denser. Four-year mean fluxes are reasonably consistent across inversions at global/latitudinal scale, with a large total (land plus ocean) carbon uptake in the north (−3.4 Pg C yr-1 (±0.5 Pg C yr-1 standard deviation), with slightly more uptake over land than over ocean), a significant although more variable source over the tropics (1.6 ± 0.9 Pg C yr-1) and a compensatory sink of similar magnitude in the south (−1.4 ± 0.5 Pg C yr-1) corresponding mainly to an ocean sink. Largest differences across inversions occur in the balance between tropical land sources and southern land sinks. Interannual variability (IAV) in carbon fluxes is larger for land than ocean regions (standard deviation around 1.06 versus 0.33 Pg C yr[superscript −1] for the 1996–2007 period), with much higher consistency among the inversions for the land. While the tropical land explains most of the IAV (standard deviation ~ 0.65 Pg C yr-1), the northern and southern land also contribute (standard deviation ~ 0.39 Pg C yr-1). Most inversions tend to indicate an increase of the northern land carbon uptake from late 1990s to 2008 (around 0.1 Pg C yr-1, predominantly in North Asia. The mean seasonal cycle appears to be well constrained by the atmospheric data over the northern land (at the continental scale), but still highly dependent on the prior flux seasonality over the ocean. Finally we provide recommendations to interpret the regional fluxes, along with the uncertainty estimates.

ContributorsPeylin, P. (Author) / Law, R. M. (Author) / Gurney, Kevin (Author) / Chevallier, F. (Author) / Jacobson, A. R. (Author) / Maki, T. (Author) / Niwa, Y. (Author) / Patra, P. K. (Author) / Peters, W. (Author) / Rayner, P. J. (Author) / Rodenbeck, C. (Author) / van der Laan-Luijkx, I. T. (Author) / Zhang, X. (Author) / College of Liberal Arts and Sciences (Contributor)
Created2013-10-24
Description

High-resolution, global quantification of fossil fuel CO[subscript 2] emissions is emerging as a critical need in carbon cycle science and climate policy. We build upon a previously developed fossil fuel data assimilation system (FFDAS) for estimating global high-resolution fossil fuel CO[subscript 2] emissions. We have improved the underlying observationally based

High-resolution, global quantification of fossil fuel CO[subscript 2] emissions is emerging as a critical need in carbon cycle science and climate policy. We build upon a previously developed fossil fuel data assimilation system (FFDAS) for estimating global high-resolution fossil fuel CO[subscript 2] emissions. We have improved the underlying observationally based data sources, expanded the approach through treatment of separate emitting sectors including a new pointwise database of global power plants, and extended the results to cover a 1997 to 2010 time series at a spatial resolution of 0.1°. Long-term trend analysis of the resulting global emissions shows subnational spatial structure in large active economies such as the United States, China, and India. These three countries, in particular, show different long-term trends and exploration of the trends in nighttime lights, and population reveal a decoupling of population and emissions at the subnational level. Analysis of shorter-term variations reveals the impact of the 2008–2009 global financial crisis with widespread negative emission anomalies across the U.S. and Europe. We have used a center of mass (CM) calculation as a compact metric to express the time evolution of spatial patterns in fossil fuel CO[subscript 2] emissions. The global emission CM has moved toward the east and somewhat south between 1997 and 2010, driven by the increase in emissions in China and South Asia over this time period. Analysis at the level of individual countries reveals per capita CO[subscript 2] emission migration in both Russia and India. The per capita emission CM holds potential as a way to succinctly analyze subnational shifts in carbon intensity over time. Uncertainties are generally lower than the previous version of FFDAS due mainly to an improved nightlight data set.

ContributorsAsefi-Najafabady, Salvi (Author) / Rayner, P. J. (Author) / Gurney, Kevin (Author) / McRobert, A. (Author) / Song, Y. (Author) / Coltin, K. (Author) / Huang, J. (Author) / Elvidge, C. (Author) / Baugh, K. (Author) / College of Liberal Arts and Sciences (Contributor)
Created2014-09-16
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Description

A globally integrated carbon observation and analysis system is needed to improve the fundamental understanding of the global carbon cycle, to improve our ability to project future changes, and to verify the effectiveness of policies aiming to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and increase carbon sequestration. Building an integrated carbon observation

A globally integrated carbon observation and analysis system is needed to improve the fundamental understanding of the global carbon cycle, to improve our ability to project future changes, and to verify the effectiveness of policies aiming to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and increase carbon sequestration. Building an integrated carbon observation system requires transformational advances from the existing sparse, exploratory framework towards a dense, robust, and sustained system in all components: anthropogenic emissions, the atmosphere, the ocean, and the terrestrial biosphere. The paper is addressed to scientists, policymakers, and funding agencies who need to have a global picture of the current state of the (diverse) carbon observations.

We identify the current state of carbon observations, and the needs and notional requirements for a global integrated carbon observation system that can be built in the next decade. A key conclusion is the substantial expansion of the ground-based observation networks required to reach the high spatial resolution for CO2 and CH4 fluxes, and for carbon stocks for addressing policy-relevant objectives, and attributing flux changes to underlying processes in each region. In order to establish flux and stock diagnostics over areas such as the southern oceans, tropical forests, and the Arctic, in situ observations will have to be complemented with remote-sensing measurements. Remote sensing offers the advantage of dense spatial coverage and frequent revisit. A key challenge is to bring remote-sensing measurements to a level of long-term consistency and accuracy so that they can be efficiently combined in models to reduce uncertainties, in synergy with ground-based data.

Bringing tight observational constraints on fossil fuel and land use change emissions will be the biggest challenge for deployment of a policy-relevant integrated carbon observation system. This will require in situ and remotely sensed data at much higher resolution and density than currently achieved for natural fluxes, although over a small land area (cities, industrial sites, power plants), as well as the inclusion of fossil fuel CO2 proxy measurements such as radiocarbon in CO2 and carbon-fuel combustion tracers. Additionally, a policy-relevant carbon monitoring system should also provide mechanisms for reconciling regional top-down (atmosphere-based) and bottom-up (surface-based) flux estimates across the range of spatial and temporal scales relevant to mitigation policies. In addition, uncertainties for each observation data-stream should be assessed. The success of the system will rely on long-term commitments to monitoring, on improved international collaboration to fill gaps in the current observations, on sustained efforts to improve access to the different data streams and make databases interoperable, and on the calibration of each component of the system to agreed-upon international scales.

ContributorsCiais, P. (Author) / Dolman, A. J. (Author) / Bombelli, A. (Author) / Duren, R. (Author) / Peregon, A. (Author) / Rayner, P. J. (Author) / Miller, C. (Author) / Gobron, N. (Author) / Kinderman, G. (Author) / Marland, G. (Author) / Gruber, N. (Author) / Chevallier, F. (Author) / Andres, R. J. (Author) / Balsamo, G. (Author) / Bopp, L. (Author) / Breon, F. -M. (Author) / Broquet, G. (Author) / Dargaville, R. (Author) / Battin, T. J. (Author) / Borges, A. (Author) / Bovensmann, H. (Author) / Buchwitz, M. (Author) / Butler, J. (Author) / Canadell, J. G. (Author) / Cook, R. B. (Author) / DeFries, R. (Author) / Engelen, R. (Author) / Gurney, Kevin (Author) / Heinze, C. (Author) / Heimann, M. (Author) / Held, A. (Author) / Henry, M. (Author) / Law, B. (Author) / Luyssaert, S. (Author) / Miller, J. (Author) / Moriyama, T. (Author) / Moulin, C. (Author) / Myneni, R. (Author) / College of Liberal Arts and Sciences (Contributor)
Created2013-11-30