Matching Items (13)
Description
The main objective of this research is to develop an integrated method to study emergent behavior and consequences of evolution and adaptation in engineered complex adaptive systems (ECASs). A multi-layer conceptual framework and modeling approach including behavioral and structural aspects is provided to describe the structure of a class of engineered complex systems and predict their future adaptive patterns. The approach allows the examination of complexity in the structure and the behavior of components as a result of their connections and in relation to their environment. This research describes and uses the major differences of natural complex adaptive systems (CASs) with artificial/engineered CASs to build a framework and platform for ECAS. While this framework focuses on the critical factors of an engineered system, it also enables one to synthetically employ engineering and mathematical models to analyze and measure complexity in such systems. In this way concepts of complex systems science are adapted to management science and system of systems engineering. In particular an integrated consumer-based optimization and agent-based modeling (ABM) platform is presented that enables managers to predict and partially control patterns of behaviors in ECASs. Demonstrated on the U.S. electricity markets, ABM is integrated with normative and subjective decision behavior recommended by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) and Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC). The approach integrates social networks, social science, complexity theory, and diffusion theory. Furthermore, it has unique and significant contribution in exploring and representing concrete managerial insights for ECASs and offering new optimized actions and modeling paradigms in agent-based simulation.
ContributorsHaghnevis, Moeed (Author) / Askin, Ronald G. (Thesis advisor) / Armbruster, Dieter (Thesis advisor) / Mirchandani, Pitu (Committee member) / Wu, Tong (Committee member) / Hedman, Kory (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2013
Description
Ionizing radiation used in the patient diagnosis or therapy has negative effects on the patient body in short term and long term depending on the amount of exposure. More than 700,000 examinations are everyday performed on Interventional Radiology modalities [1], however; there is no patient-centric information available to the patient or the Quality Assurance for the amount of organ dose received. In this study, we are exploring the methodologies to systematically reduce the absorbed radiation dose in the Fluoroscopically Guided Interventional Radiology procedures. In the first part of this study, we developed a mathematical model which determines a set of geometry settings for the equipment and a level for the energy during a patient exam. The goal is to minimize the amount of absorbed dose in the critical organs while maintaining image quality required for the diagnosis. The model is a large-scale mixed integer program. We performed polyhedral analysis and derived several sets of strong inequalities to improve the computational speed and quality of the solution. Results present the amount of absorbed dose in the critical organ can be reduced up to 99% for a specific set of angles. In the second part, we apply an approximate gradient method to simultaneously optimize angle and table location while minimizing dose in the critical organs with respect to the image quality. In each iteration, we solve a sub-problem as a MIP to determine the radiation field size and corresponding X-ray tube energy. In the computational experiments, results show further reduction (up to 80%) of the absorbed dose in compare with previous method. Last, there are uncertainties in the medical procedures resulting imprecision of the absorbed dose. We propose a robust formulation to hedge from the worst case absorbed dose while ensuring feasibility. In this part, we investigate a robust approach for the organ motions within a radiology procedure. We minimize the absorbed dose for the critical organs across all input data scenarios which are corresponding to the positioning and size of the organs. The computational results indicate up to 26% increase in the absorbed dose calculated for the robust approach which ensures the feasibility across scenarios.
ContributorsKhodadadegan, Yasaman (Author) / Zhang, Muhong (Thesis advisor) / Pavlicek, William (Thesis advisor) / Fowler, John (Committee member) / Wu, Tong (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2013
Description
A Pairwise Comparison Matrix (PCM) is used to compute for relative priorities of criteria or alternatives and are integral components of widely applied decision making tools: the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and its generalized form, the Analytic Network Process (ANP). However, a PCM suffers from several issues limiting its application to large-scale decision problems, specifically: (1) to the curse of dimensionality, that is, a large number of pairwise comparisons need to be elicited from a decision maker (DM), (2) inconsistent and (3) imprecise preferences maybe obtained due to the limited cognitive power of DMs. This dissertation proposes a PCM Framework for Large-Scale Decisions to address these limitations in three phases as follows. The first phase proposes a binary integer program (BIP) to intelligently decompose a PCM into several mutually exclusive subsets using interdependence scores. As a result, the number of pairwise comparisons is reduced and the consistency of the PCM is improved. Since the subsets are disjoint, the most independent pivot element is identified to connect all subsets. This is done to derive the global weights of the elements from the original PCM. The proposed BIP is applied to both AHP and ANP methodologies. However, it is noted that the optimal number of subsets is provided subjectively by the DM and hence is subject to biases and judgement errors. The second phase proposes a trade-off PCM decomposition methodology to decompose a PCM into a number of optimally identified subsets. A BIP is proposed to balance the: (1) time savings by reducing pairwise comparisons, the level of PCM inconsistency, and (2) the accuracy of the weights. The proposed methodology is applied to the AHP to demonstrate its advantages and is compared to established methodologies. In the third phase, a beta distribution is proposed to generalize a wide variety of imprecise pairwise comparison distributions via a method of moments methodology. A Non-Linear Programming model is then developed that calculates PCM element weights which maximizes the preferences of the DM as well as minimizes the inconsistency simultaneously. Comparison experiments are conducted using datasets collected from literature to validate the proposed methodology.
ContributorsJalao, Eugene Rex Lazaro (Author) / Shunk, Dan L. (Thesis advisor) / Wu, Teresa (Thesis advisor) / Askin, Ronald G. (Committee member) / Goul, Kenneth M (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2013
Description
With the increase in computing power and availability of data, there has never been a greater need to understand data and make decisions from it. Traditional statistical techniques may not be adequate to handle the size of today's data or the complexities of the information hidden within the data. Thus knowledge discovery by machine learning techniques is necessary if we want to better understand information from data. In this dissertation, we explore the topics of asymmetric loss and asymmetric data in machine learning and propose new algorithms as solutions to some of the problems in these topics. We also studied variable selection of matched data sets and proposed a solution when there is non-linearity in the matched data. The research is divided into three parts. The first part addresses the problem of asymmetric loss. A proposed asymmetric support vector machine (aSVM) is used to predict specific classes with high accuracy. aSVM was shown to produce higher precision than a regular SVM. The second part addresses asymmetric data sets where variables are only predictive for a subset of the predictor classes. Asymmetric Random Forest (ARF) was proposed to detect these kinds of variables. The third part explores variable selection for matched data sets. Matched Random Forest (MRF) was proposed to find variables that are able to distinguish case and control without the restrictions that exists in linear models. MRF detects variables that are able to distinguish case and control even in the presence of interaction and qualitative variables.
ContributorsKoh, Derek (Author) / Runger, George C. (Thesis advisor) / Wu, Tong (Committee member) / Pan, Rong (Committee member) / Cesta, John (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2013
Description
To guide the timetabling and vehicle assignment of urban bus systems, a group of optimization models were developed for scenarios from simple to complex. The model took the interaction of prospective passengers and bus companies into consideration to achieve the maximum financial benefit as well as social satisfaction. The model was verified by a series of case studies and simulation from which some interesting conclusions were drawn.
ContributorsHuang, Shiyang (Author) / Askin, Ronald G. (Thesis advisor) / Mirchandani, Pitu (Committee member) / McCarville, Daniel R. (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2014
Description
This research develops heuristics for scheduling electric power production amid uncertainty. Reliability is becoming more difficult to manage due to growing uncertainty from renewable resources. This challenge is compounded by the risk of resource outages, which can occur any time and without warning. Stochastic optimization is a promising tool but remains computationally intractable for large systems. The models used in industry instead schedule for the forecast and withhold generation reserve for scenario response, but they are blind to how this reserve may be constrained by network congestion. This dissertation investigates more effective heuristics to improve economics and reliability in power systems where congestion is a concern.
Two general approaches are developed. Both approximate the effects of recourse decisions without actually solving a stochastic model. The first approach procures more reserve whenever approximate recourse policies stress the transmission network. The second approach procures reserve at prime locations by generalizing the existing practice of reserve disqualification. The latter approach is applied for feasibility and is later extended to limit scenario costs. Testing demonstrates expected cost improvements around 0.5%-1.0% for the IEEE 73-bus test case, which can translate to millions of dollars per year even for modest systems. The heuristics developed in this dissertation perform somewhere between established deterministic and stochastic models: providing an economic benefit over current practices without substantially increasing computational times.
Two general approaches are developed. Both approximate the effects of recourse decisions without actually solving a stochastic model. The first approach procures more reserve whenever approximate recourse policies stress the transmission network. The second approach procures reserve at prime locations by generalizing the existing practice of reserve disqualification. The latter approach is applied for feasibility and is later extended to limit scenario costs. Testing demonstrates expected cost improvements around 0.5%-1.0% for the IEEE 73-bus test case, which can translate to millions of dollars per year even for modest systems. The heuristics developed in this dissertation perform somewhere between established deterministic and stochastic models: providing an economic benefit over current practices without substantially increasing computational times.
ContributorsLyon, Joshua Daniel (Author) / Zhang, Muhong (Thesis advisor) / Hedman, Kory W (Thesis advisor) / Askin, Ronald G. (Committee member) / Mirchandani, Pitu (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2015
Description
A good production schedule in a semiconductor back-end facility is critical for the on time delivery of customer orders. Compared to the front-end process that is dominated by re-entrant product flows, the back-end process is linear and therefore more suitable for scheduling. However, the production scheduling of the back-end process is still very difficult due to the wide product mix, large number of parallel machines, product family related setups, machine-product qualification, and weekly demand consisting of thousands of lots. In this research, a novel mixed-integer-linear-programming (MILP) model is proposed for the batch production scheduling of a semiconductor back-end facility. In the MILP formulation, the manufacturing process is modeled as a flexible flow line with bottleneck stages, unrelated parallel machines, product family related sequence-independent setups, and product-machine qualification considerations. However, this MILP formulation is difficult to solve for real size problem instances. In a semiconductor back-end facility, production scheduling usually needs to be done every day while considering updated demand forecast for a medium term planning horizon. Due to the limitation on the solvable size of the MILP model, a deterministic scheduling system (DSS), consisting of an optimizer and a scheduler, is proposed to provide sub-optimal solutions in a short time for real size problem instances. The optimizer generates a tentative production plan. Then the scheduler sequences each lot on each individual machine according to the tentative production plan and scheduling rules. Customized factory rules and additional resource constraints are included in the DSS, such as preventive maintenance schedule, setup crew availability, and carrier limitations. Small problem instances are randomly generated to compare the performances of the MILP model and the deterministic scheduling system. Then experimental design is applied to understand the behavior of the DSS and identify the best configuration of the DSS under different demand scenarios. Product-machine qualification decisions have long-term and significant impact on production scheduling. A robust product-machine qualification matrix is critical for meeting demand when demand quantity or mix varies. In the second part of this research, a stochastic mixed integer programming model is proposed to balance the tradeoff between current machine qualification costs and future backorder costs with uncertain demand. The L-shaped method and acceleration techniques are proposed to solve the stochastic model. Computational results are provided to compare the performance of different solution methods.
ContributorsFu, Mengying (Author) / Askin, Ronald G. (Thesis advisor) / Zhang, Muhong (Thesis advisor) / Fowler, John W (Committee member) / Pan, Rong (Committee member) / Sen, Arunabha (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2011
Description
In recent years, service oriented computing (SOC) has become a widely accepted paradigm for the development of distributed applications such as web services, grid computing and cloud computing systems. In service-based systems (SBS), multiple service requests with specific performance requirements make services compete for system resources. IT service providers need to allocate resources to services so the performance requirements of customers can be satisfied. Workload and performance models are required for efficient resource management and service performance assurance in SBS. This dissertation develops two methods to understand and model the cause-effect relations of service-related activities with resources workload and service performance. Part one presents an empirical method that requires the collection of system dynamics data and the application of statistical analyses. The results show that the method is capable to: 1) uncover the impacts of services on resource workload and service performance, 2) identify interaction effects of multiple services running concurrently, 3) gain insights about resource and performance tradeoffs of services, and 4) build service workload and performance models. In part two, the empirical method is used to investigate the impacts of services, security mechanisms and cyber attacks on resources workload and service performance. The information obtained is used to: 1) uncover interaction effects of services, security mechanisms and cyber attacks, 2) identify tradeoffs within limits of system resources, and 3) develop general/specific strategies for system survivability. Finally, part three presents a framework based on the usage profiles of services competing for resources and the resource-sharing schemes. The framework is used to: 1) uncover the impacts of service parameters (e.g. arrival distribution, execution time distribution, priority, workload intensity, scheduling algorithm) on workload and performance, and 2) build service workload and performance models at individual resources. The estimates obtained from service workload and performance models at individual resources can be aggregated to obtain overall estimates of services through multiple system resources. The workload and performance models of services obtained through both methods can be used for the efficient resource management and service performance assurance in SBS.
ContributorsMartinez Aranda, Billibaldo (Author) / Ye, Nong (Thesis advisor) / Wu, Tong (Committee member) / Sarjoughian, Hessam S. (Committee member) / Pan, Rong (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2012
Description
In the entire supply chain, demand planning is one of the crucial aspects of the production planning process. If the demand is not estimated accurately, then it causes revenue loss. Past research has shown forecasting can be used to help the demand planning process for production. However, accurate forecasting from historical data is difficult in today's complex volatile market. Also it is not the only factor that influences the demand planning. Factors, namely, Consumer's shifting interest and buying power also influence the future demand. Hence, this research study focuses on Just-In-Time (JIT) philosophy using a pull control strategy implemented with a Kanban control system to control the inventory flow. Two different product structures, serial product structure and assembly product structure, are considered for this research. Three different methods: the Toyota Production System model, a histogram model and a cost minimization model, have been used to find the number of kanbans that was used in a computer simulated Just-In-Time Kanban System. The simulation model was built to execute the designed scenarios for both the serial and assembly product structure. A test was performed to check the significance effects of various factors on system performance. Results of all three methods were collected and compared to indicate which method provides the most effective way to determine number of kanbans at various conditions. It was inferred that histogram model and cost minimization models are more accurate in calculating the required kanbans for various manufacturing conditions. Method-1 fails to adjust the kanbans when the backordered cost increases or when product structure changes. Among the product structures, serial product structures proved to be effective when Method-2 or Method-3 is used to calculate the kanban numbers for the system. The experimental result data also indicated that the lower container capacity collects more backorders in the system, which increases the inventory cost, than the high container capacity for both serial and assembly product structures.
ContributorsSahu, Pranati (Author) / Askin, Ronald G. (Thesis advisor) / Shunk, Dan L. (Thesis advisor) / Fowler, John (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2012
Description
Alzheimer's Disease (AD) is the most common form of dementia observed in elderly patients and has significant social-economic impact. There are many initiatives which aim to capture leading causes of AD. Several genetic, imaging, and biochemical markers are being explored to monitor progression of AD and explore treatment and detection options. The primary focus of this thesis is to identify key biomarkers to understand the pathogenesis and prognosis of Alzheimer's Disease. Feature selection is the process of finding a subset of relevant features to develop efficient and robust learning models. It is an active research topic in diverse areas such as computer vision, bioinformatics, information retrieval, chemical informatics, and computational finance. In this work, state of the art feature selection algorithms, such as Student's t-test, Relief-F, Information Gain, Gini Index, Chi-Square, Fisher Kernel Score, Kruskal-Wallis, Minimum Redundancy Maximum Relevance, and Sparse Logistic regression with Stability Selection have been extensively exploited to identify informative features for AD using data from Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI). An integrative approach which uses blood plasma protein, Magnetic Resonance Imaging, and psychometric assessment scores biomarkers has been explored. This work also analyzes the techniques to handle unbalanced data and evaluate the efficacy of sampling techniques. Performance of feature selection algorithm is evaluated using the relevance of derived features and the predictive power of the algorithm using Random Forest and Support Vector Machine classifiers. Performance metrics such as Accuracy, Sensitivity and Specificity, and area under the Receiver Operating Characteristic curve (AUC) have been used for evaluation. The feature selection algorithms best suited to analyze AD proteomics data have been proposed. The key biomarkers distinguishing healthy and AD patients, Mild Cognitive Impairment (MCI) converters and non-converters, and healthy and MCI patients have been identified.
ContributorsDubey, Rashmi (Author) / Ye, Jieping (Thesis advisor) / Wang, Yalin (Committee member) / Wu, Tong (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2012