Matching Items (38)
Description
The main objective of this research is to develop an integrated method to study emergent behavior and consequences of evolution and adaptation in engineered complex adaptive systems (ECASs). A multi-layer conceptual framework and modeling approach including behavioral and structural aspects is provided to describe the structure of a class of engineered complex systems and predict their future adaptive patterns. The approach allows the examination of complexity in the structure and the behavior of components as a result of their connections and in relation to their environment. This research describes and uses the major differences of natural complex adaptive systems (CASs) with artificial/engineered CASs to build a framework and platform for ECAS. While this framework focuses on the critical factors of an engineered system, it also enables one to synthetically employ engineering and mathematical models to analyze and measure complexity in such systems. In this way concepts of complex systems science are adapted to management science and system of systems engineering. In particular an integrated consumer-based optimization and agent-based modeling (ABM) platform is presented that enables managers to predict and partially control patterns of behaviors in ECASs. Demonstrated on the U.S. electricity markets, ABM is integrated with normative and subjective decision behavior recommended by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) and Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC). The approach integrates social networks, social science, complexity theory, and diffusion theory. Furthermore, it has unique and significant contribution in exploring and representing concrete managerial insights for ECASs and offering new optimized actions and modeling paradigms in agent-based simulation.
ContributorsHaghnevis, Moeed (Author) / Askin, Ronald G. (Thesis advisor) / Armbruster, Dieter (Thesis advisor) / Mirchandani, Pitu (Committee member) / Wu, Tong (Committee member) / Hedman, Kory (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2013
Description
This thesis presents a model for the buying behavior of consumers in a technology market. In this model, a potential consumer is not perfectly rational, but exhibits bounded rationality following the axioms of prospect theory: reference dependence, diminishing returns and loss sensitivity. To evaluate the products on different criteria, the analytic hierarchy process is used, which allows for relative comparisons. The analytic hierarchy process proposes that when making a choice between several alternatives, one should measure the products by comparing them relative to each other. This allows the user to put numbers to subjective criteria. Additionally, evidence suggests that a consumer will often consider not only their own evaluation of a product, but also the choices of other consumers. Thus, the model in this paper applies prospect theory to products with multiple attributes using word of mouth as a criteria in the evaluation.
ContributorsElkholy, Alexander (Author) / Armbruster, Dieter (Thesis advisor) / Kempf, Karl (Committee member) / Li, Hongmin (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2014
Description
Pre-Exposure Prophylaxis (PrEP) is any medical or public health procedure used before exposure to the disease causing agent, its purpose is to prevent, rather than treat or cure a disease. Most commonly, PrEP refers to an experimental HIV-prevention strategy that would use antiretrovirals to protect HIV-negative people from HIV infection. A deterministic mathematical model of HIV transmission is developed to evaluate the public-health impact of oral PrEP interventions, and to compare PrEP effectiveness with respect to different evaluation methods. The effects of demographic, behavioral, and epidemic parameters on the PrEP impact are studied in a multivariate sensitivity analysis. Most of the published models on HIV intervention impact assume that the number of individuals joining the sexually active population per year is constant or proportional to the total population. In the second part of this study, three models are presented and analyzed to study the PrEP intervention, with constant, linear, and logistic recruitment rates. How different demographic assumptions can affect the evaluation of PrEP is studied. When provided with data, often least square fitting or similar approaches can be used to determine a single set of approximated parameter values that make the model fit the data best. However, least square fitting only provides point estimates and does not provide information on how strongly the data supports these particular estimates. Therefore, in the third part of this study, Bayesian parameter estimation is applied on fitting ODE model to the related HIV data. Starting with a set of prior distributions for the parameters as initial guess, Bayes' formula can be applied to obtain a set of posterior distributions for the parameters which makes the model fit the observed data best. Evaluating the posterior distribution often requires the integration of high-dimensional functions, which is usually difficult to calculate numerically. Therefore, the Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method is used to approximate the posterior distribution.
ContributorsZhao, Yuqin (Author) / Kuang, Yang (Thesis advisor) / Taylor, Jesse (Committee member) / Armbruster, Dieter (Committee member) / Tang, Wenbo (Committee member) / Kang, Yun (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2014
Description
Bacteriophage (phage) are viruses that infect bacteria. Typical laboratory experiments show that in a chemostat containing phage and susceptible bacteria species, a mutant bacteria species will evolve. This mutant species is usually resistant to the phage infection and less competitive compared to the susceptible bacteria species. In some experiments, both susceptible and resistant bacteria species, as well as phage, can coexist at an equilibrium for hundreds of hours. The current research is inspired by these observations, and the goal is to establish a mathematical model and explore sufficient and necessary conditions for the coexistence. In this dissertation a model with infinite distributed delay terms based on some existing work is established. A rigorous analysis of the well-posedness of this model is provided, and it is proved that the susceptible bacteria persist. To study the persistence of phage species, a "Phage Reproduction Number" (PRN) is defined. The mathematical analysis shows phage persist if PRN > 1 and vanish if PRN < 1. A sufficient condition and a necessary condition for persistence of resistant bacteria are given. The persistence of the phage is essential for the persistence of resistant bacteria. Also, the resistant bacteria persist if its fitness is the same as the susceptible bacteria and if PRN > 1. A special case of the general model leads to a system of ordinary differential equations, for which numerical simulation results are presented.
ContributorsHan, Zhun (Author) / Smith, Hal (Thesis advisor) / Armbruster, Dieter (Committee member) / Kawski, Matthias (Committee member) / Kuang, Yang (Committee member) / Thieme, Horst (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2012
Description
Modern measurement schemes for linear dynamical systems are typically designed so that different sensors can be scheduled to be used at each time step. To determine which sensors to use, various metrics have been suggested. One possible such metric is the observability of the system. Observability is a binary condition determining whether a finite number of measurements suffice to recover the initial state. However to employ observability for sensor scheduling, the binary definition needs to be expanded so that one can measure how observable a system is with a particular measurement scheme, i.e. one needs a metric of observability. Most methods utilizing an observability metric are about sensor selection and not for sensor scheduling. In this dissertation we present a new approach to utilize the observability for sensor scheduling by employing the condition number of the observability matrix as the metric and using column subset selection to create an algorithm to choose which sensors to use at each time step. To this end we use a rank revealing QR factorization algorithm to select sensors. Several numerical experiments are used to demonstrate the performance of the proposed scheme.
ContributorsIlkturk, Utku (Author) / Gelb, Anne (Thesis advisor) / Platte, Rodrigo (Thesis advisor) / Cochran, Douglas (Committee member) / Renaut, Rosemary (Committee member) / Armbruster, Dieter (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2015
Description
Factory production is stochastic in nature with time varying input and output processes that are non-stationary stochastic processes. Hence, the principle quantities of interest are random variables. Typical modeling of such behavior involves numerical simulation and statistical analysis. A deterministic closure model leading to a second order model for the product density and product speed has previously been proposed. The resulting partial differential equations (PDE) are compared to discrete event simulations (DES) that simulate factory production as a time dependent M/M/1 queuing system. Three fundamental scenarios for the time dependent influx are studied: An instant step up/down of the mean arrival rate; an exponential step up/down of the mean arrival rate; and periodic variation of the mean arrival rate. It is shown that the second order model, in general, yields significant improvement over current first order models. Specifically, the agreement between the DES and the PDE for the step up and for periodic forcing that is not too rapid is very good. Adding diffusion to the PDE further improves the agreement. The analysis also points to fundamental open issues regarding the deterministic modeling of low signal-to-noise ratio for some stochastic processes and the possibility of resonance in deterministic models that is not present in the original stochastic process.
ContributorsWienke, Matthew (Author) / Armbruster, Dieter (Thesis advisor) / Jones, Donald (Committee member) / Platte, Rodrigo (Committee member) / Gardner, Carl (Committee member) / Ringhofer, Christian (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2015
Description
The Kuramoto model is an archetypal model for studying synchronization in groups
of nonidentical oscillators where oscillators are imbued with their own frequency and
coupled with other oscillators though a network of interactions. As the coupling
strength increases, there is a bifurcation to complete synchronization where all oscillators
move with the same frequency and show a collective rhythm. Kuramoto-like
dynamics are considered a relevant model for instabilities of the AC-power grid which
operates in synchrony under standard conditions but exhibits, in a state of failure,
segmentation of the grid into desynchronized clusters.
In this dissertation the minimum coupling strength required to ensure total frequency
synchronization in a Kuramoto system, called the critical coupling, is investigated.
For coupling strength below the critical coupling, clusters of oscillators form
where oscillators within a cluster are on average oscillating with the same long-term
frequency. A unified order parameter based approach is developed to create approximations
of the critical coupling. Some of the new approximations provide strict lower
bounds for the critical coupling. In addition, these approximations allow for predictions
of the partially synchronized clusters that emerge in the bifurcation from the
synchronized state.
Merging the order parameter approach with graph theoretical concepts leads to a
characterization of this bifurcation as a weighted graph partitioning problem on an
arbitrary networks which then leads to an optimization problem that can efficiently
estimate the partially synchronized clusters. Numerical experiments on random Kuramoto
systems show the high accuracy of these methods. An interpretation of the
methods in the context of power systems is provided.
of nonidentical oscillators where oscillators are imbued with their own frequency and
coupled with other oscillators though a network of interactions. As the coupling
strength increases, there is a bifurcation to complete synchronization where all oscillators
move with the same frequency and show a collective rhythm. Kuramoto-like
dynamics are considered a relevant model for instabilities of the AC-power grid which
operates in synchrony under standard conditions but exhibits, in a state of failure,
segmentation of the grid into desynchronized clusters.
In this dissertation the minimum coupling strength required to ensure total frequency
synchronization in a Kuramoto system, called the critical coupling, is investigated.
For coupling strength below the critical coupling, clusters of oscillators form
where oscillators within a cluster are on average oscillating with the same long-term
frequency. A unified order parameter based approach is developed to create approximations
of the critical coupling. Some of the new approximations provide strict lower
bounds for the critical coupling. In addition, these approximations allow for predictions
of the partially synchronized clusters that emerge in the bifurcation from the
synchronized state.
Merging the order parameter approach with graph theoretical concepts leads to a
characterization of this bifurcation as a weighted graph partitioning problem on an
arbitrary networks which then leads to an optimization problem that can efficiently
estimate the partially synchronized clusters. Numerical experiments on random Kuramoto
systems show the high accuracy of these methods. An interpretation of the
methods in the context of power systems is provided.
ContributorsGilg, Brady (Author) / Armbruster, Dieter (Thesis advisor) / Mittelmann, Hans (Committee member) / Scaglione, Anna (Committee member) / Strogatz, Steven (Committee member) / Welfert, Bruno (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2018
Description
Need-based transfers (NBTs) are a form of risk-pooling in which binary welfare exchanges
occur to preserve the viable participation of individuals in an economy, e.g. reciprocal gifting
of cattle among East African herders or food sharing among vampire bats. With the
broad goal of better understanding the mathematics of such binary welfare and risk pooling,
agent-based simulations are conducted to explore socially optimal transfer policies
and sharing network structures, kinetic exchange models that utilize tools from the kinetic
theory of gas dynamics are utilized to characterize the wealth distribution of an NBT economy,
and a variant of repeated prisoner’s dilemma is analyzed to determine whether and
why individuals would participate in such a system of reciprocal altruism.
From agent-based simulation and kinetic exchange models, it is found that regressive
NBT wealth redistribution acts as a cutting stock optimization heuristic that most efficiently
matches deficits to surpluses to improve short-term survival; however, progressive
redistribution leads to a wealth distribution that is more stable in volatile environments and
therefore is optimal for long-term survival. Homogeneous sharing networks with low variance
in degree are found to be ideal for maintaining community viability as the burden and
benefit of NBTs is equally shared. Also, phrasing NBTs as a survivor’s dilemma reveals
parameter regions where the repeated game becomes equivalent to a stag hunt or harmony
game, and thus where cooperation is evolutionarily stable.
occur to preserve the viable participation of individuals in an economy, e.g. reciprocal gifting
of cattle among East African herders or food sharing among vampire bats. With the
broad goal of better understanding the mathematics of such binary welfare and risk pooling,
agent-based simulations are conducted to explore socially optimal transfer policies
and sharing network structures, kinetic exchange models that utilize tools from the kinetic
theory of gas dynamics are utilized to characterize the wealth distribution of an NBT economy,
and a variant of repeated prisoner’s dilemma is analyzed to determine whether and
why individuals would participate in such a system of reciprocal altruism.
From agent-based simulation and kinetic exchange models, it is found that regressive
NBT wealth redistribution acts as a cutting stock optimization heuristic that most efficiently
matches deficits to surpluses to improve short-term survival; however, progressive
redistribution leads to a wealth distribution that is more stable in volatile environments and
therefore is optimal for long-term survival. Homogeneous sharing networks with low variance
in degree are found to be ideal for maintaining community viability as the burden and
benefit of NBTs is equally shared. Also, phrasing NBTs as a survivor’s dilemma reveals
parameter regions where the repeated game becomes equivalent to a stag hunt or harmony
game, and thus where cooperation is evolutionarily stable.
ContributorsKayser, Kirk (Author) / Armbruster, Dieter (Thesis advisor) / Lampert, Adam (Committee member) / Ringhofer, Christian (Committee member) / Motsch, Sebastien (Committee member) / Gardner, Carl (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2018
Description
This dissertation investigates the classification of systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) in the presence of non-SLE alternatives, while developing novel curve classification methodologies with wide ranging applications. Functional data representations of plasma thermogram measurements and the corresponding derivative curves provide predictors yet to be investigated for SLE identification. Functional nonparametric classifiers form a methodological basis, which is used herein to develop a) the family of ESFuNC segment-wise curve classification algorithms and b) per-pixel ensembles based on logistic regression and fused-LASSO. The proposed methods achieve test set accuracy rates as high as 94.3%, while returning information about regions of the temperature domain that are critical for population discrimination. The undertaken analyses suggest that derivate-based information contributes significantly in improved classification performance relative to recently published studies on SLE plasma thermograms.
ContributorsBuscaglia, Robert, Ph.D (Author) / Kamarianakis, Yiannis (Thesis advisor) / Armbruster, Dieter (Committee member) / Lanchier, Nicholas (Committee member) / McCulloch, Robert (Committee member) / Reiser, Mark R. (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2018
Description
This paper comes from a consulting project that the consulting firm, New Venture Group (NVG), did for a hospital in the southwest United States. The name of the hospital as well as the names of the hospitalists and units for the hospital will be withheld for confidentiality reasons. The hospital will be referred to as the ‘client’ throughout this paper. New Venture Group is a management consulting firm associated with Arizona State University (ASU), W.P. Carey School of Business and The Barrett Honors College. NVG recruits their consultants directly from the upper-class student body. NVG takes on projects from a wide variety of clients to provide real-world solutions comparable to that of other management consulting firms in the industry.
The client wanted to look into ways to improve patient satisfaction. To improve patient satisfaction the consulting team performed research and held a data collection. The team researched literature for possible improvements in technology, management procedures, and hospital operations protocols. The team then provided the findings and possible implementations to the client. Another item the team looked into was communication between night shift hospitalists and nurses, and possible ways to improve their communication. In the winter of 2010 a data collection was held at the client hospital that measured several different metrics of hospitalist
urse communication. In early 2011 a NVG team provided a descriptive statistics analysis of the results to the client. After the team’s first presentation I joined NVG and the team with this client. The client wanted to dig deeper into the data to find any patterns that were inherent in the data that were not immediately obvious from descriptive statistics. To do this I built over a 150 different regressions to dig from the data as many different patterns that could be found. Most of these regressions found many non-interesting results and a few did find significant interesting results. A report was sent to the client with all the results found. This paper is structured differently than the one delivered to the client in that only the significant interesting results are included and terminology will used for an audience who is familiar with statistics and mathematics. The work in this paper is the combined result of the whole team. My most specific input in this project is the quantitative analysis section. The other parts of this paper are also included so that the reader can see the full results of this consulting project.
The client wanted to look into ways to improve patient satisfaction. To improve patient satisfaction the consulting team performed research and held a data collection. The team researched literature for possible improvements in technology, management procedures, and hospital operations protocols. The team then provided the findings and possible implementations to the client. Another item the team looked into was communication between night shift hospitalists and nurses, and possible ways to improve their communication. In the winter of 2010 a data collection was held at the client hospital that measured several different metrics of hospitalist
urse communication. In early 2011 a NVG team provided a descriptive statistics analysis of the results to the client. After the team’s first presentation I joined NVG and the team with this client. The client wanted to dig deeper into the data to find any patterns that were inherent in the data that were not immediately obvious from descriptive statistics. To do this I built over a 150 different regressions to dig from the data as many different patterns that could be found. Most of these regressions found many non-interesting results and a few did find significant interesting results. A report was sent to the client with all the results found. This paper is structured differently than the one delivered to the client in that only the significant interesting results are included and terminology will used for an audience who is familiar with statistics and mathematics. The work in this paper is the combined result of the whole team. My most specific input in this project is the quantitative analysis section. The other parts of this paper are also included so that the reader can see the full results of this consulting project.
ContributorsGuggisberg, Michael (Author) / Ahn, Seung (Thesis director) / Brooks, Daniel (Committee member) / Werner, Kathleen (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2012-05