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- Genre: Masters Thesis
- Creators: Davulcu, Hasan
- Member of: ASU Electronic Theses and Dissertations
Description
There have been extensive research in how news and twitter feeds can affect the outcome of a given stock. However, a majority of this research has studied the short term effects of sentiment with a given stock price. Within this research, I studied the long-term effects of a given stock price using fundamental analysis techniques. Within this research, I collected both sentiment data and fundamental data for Apple Inc., Microsoft Corp., and Peabody Energy Corp. Using a neural network algorithm, I found that sentiment does have an effect on the annual growth of these companies but the fundamentals are more relevant when determining overall growth. The stocks which show more consistent growth hold more importance on the previous year’s stock price but companies which have less consistency in their growth showed more reliance on the revenue growth and sentiment on the overall company and CEO. I discuss how I collected my research data and used a multi-layered perceptron to predict a threshold growth of a given stock. The threshold used for this particular research was 10%. I then showed the prediction of this threshold using my perceptron and afterwards, perform an f anova test on my choice of features. The results showed the fundamentals being the better predictor of stock information but fundamentals came in a close second in several cases, proving sentiment does hold an effect over long term growth.
ContributorsReeves, Tyler Joseph (Author) / Davulcu, Hasan (Thesis advisor) / Baral, Chitta (Committee member) / Cesta, John (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2016
Description
Bank institutions employ several marketing strategies to maximize new customer acquisition as well as current customer retention. Telemarketing is one such approach taken where individual customers are contacted by bank representatives with offers. These telemarketing strategies can be improved in combination with data mining techniques that allow predictability of customer information and interests. In this thesis, bank telemarketing data from a Portuguese banking institution were analyzed to determine predictability of several client demographic and financial attributes and find most contributing factors in each. Data were preprocessed to ensure quality, and then data mining models were generated for the attributes with logistic regression, support vector machine (SVM) and random forest using Orange as the data mining tool. Results were analyzed using precision, recall and F1 score.
ContributorsEjaz, Samira (Author) / Davulcu, Hasan (Thesis advisor) / Balasooriya, Janaka (Committee member) / Candan, Kasim (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2016
Description
Proliferation of social media websites and discussion forums in the last decade has resulted in social media mining emerging as an effective mechanism to extract consumer patterns. Most research on social media and pharmacovigilance have concentrated on
Adverse Drug Reaction (ADR) identification. Such methods employ a step of drug search followed by classification of the associated text as consisting an ADR or not. Although this method works efficiently for ADR classifications, if ADR evidence is present in users posts over time, drug mentions fail to capture such ADRs. It also fails to record additional user information which may provide an opportunity to perform an in-depth analysis for lifestyle habits and possible reasons for any medical problems.
Pre-market clinical trials for drugs generally do not include pregnant women, and so their effects on pregnancy outcomes are not discovered early. This thesis presents a thorough, alternative strategy for assessing the safety profiles of drugs during pregnancy by utilizing user timelines from social media. I explore the use of a variety of state-of-the-art social media mining techniques, including rule-based and machine learning techniques, to identify pregnant women, monitor their drug usage patterns, categorize their birth outcomes, and attempt to discover associations between drugs and bad birth outcomes.
The technique used models user timelines as longitudinal patient networks, which provide us with a variety of key information about pregnancy, drug usage, and post-
birth reactions. I evaluate the distinct parts of the pipeline separately, validating the usefulness of each step. The approach to use user timelines in this fashion has produced very encouraging results, and can be employed for a range of other important tasks where users/patients are required to be followed over time to derive population-based measures.
Adverse Drug Reaction (ADR) identification. Such methods employ a step of drug search followed by classification of the associated text as consisting an ADR or not. Although this method works efficiently for ADR classifications, if ADR evidence is present in users posts over time, drug mentions fail to capture such ADRs. It also fails to record additional user information which may provide an opportunity to perform an in-depth analysis for lifestyle habits and possible reasons for any medical problems.
Pre-market clinical trials for drugs generally do not include pregnant women, and so their effects on pregnancy outcomes are not discovered early. This thesis presents a thorough, alternative strategy for assessing the safety profiles of drugs during pregnancy by utilizing user timelines from social media. I explore the use of a variety of state-of-the-art social media mining techniques, including rule-based and machine learning techniques, to identify pregnant women, monitor their drug usage patterns, categorize their birth outcomes, and attempt to discover associations between drugs and bad birth outcomes.
The technique used models user timelines as longitudinal patient networks, which provide us with a variety of key information about pregnancy, drug usage, and post-
birth reactions. I evaluate the distinct parts of the pipeline separately, validating the usefulness of each step. The approach to use user timelines in this fashion has produced very encouraging results, and can be employed for a range of other important tasks where users/patients are required to be followed over time to derive population-based measures.
ContributorsChandrashekar, Pramod Bharadwaj (Author) / Davulcu, Hasan (Thesis advisor) / Gonzalez, Graciela (Thesis advisor) / Hsiao, Sharon (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2016
Description
Predicting when an individual will adopt a new behavior is an important problem in application domains such as marketing and public health. This thesis examines the performance of a wide variety of social network based measurements proposed in the literature - which have not been previously compared directly. This research studies the probability of an individual becoming influenced based on measurements derived from neighborhood (i.e. number of influencers, personal network exposure), structural diversity, locality, temporal measures, cascade measures, and metadata. It also examines the ability to predict influence based on choice of the classifier and how the ratio of positive to negative samples in both training and testing affect prediction results - further enabling practical use of these concepts for social influence applications.
ContributorsNanda Kumar, Nikhil (Author) / Shakarian, Paulo (Thesis advisor) / Sen, Arunabha (Committee member) / Davulcu, Hasan (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2016
Description
Computational visual aesthetics has recently become an active research area. Existing state-of-art methods formulate this as a binary classification task where a given image is predicted to be beautiful or not. In many applications such as image retrieval and enhancement, it is more important to rank images based on their aesthetic quality instead of binary-categorizing them. Furthermore, in such applications, it may be possible that all images belong to the same category. Hence determining the aesthetic ranking of the images is more appropriate. To this end, a novel problem of ranking images with respect to their aesthetic quality is formulated in this work. A new data-set of image pairs with relative labels is constructed by carefully selecting images from the popular AVA data-set. Unlike in aesthetics classification, there is no single threshold which would determine the ranking order of the images across the entire data-set.
This problem is attempted using a deep neural network based approach that is trained on image pairs by incorporating principles from relative learning. Results show that such relative training procedure allows the network to rank the images with a higher accuracy than a state-of-art network trained on the same set of images using binary labels. Further analyzing the results show that training a model using the image pairs learnt better aesthetic features than training on same number of individual binary labelled images.
Additionally, an attempt is made at enhancing the performance of the system by incorporating saliency related information. Given an image, humans might fixate their vision on particular parts of the image, which they might be subconsciously intrigued to. I therefore tried to utilize the saliency information both stand-alone as well as in combination with the global and local aesthetic features by performing two separate sets of experiments. In both the cases, a standard saliency model is chosen and the generated saliency maps are convoluted with the images prior to passing them to the network, thus giving higher importance to the salient regions as compared to the remaining. Thus generated saliency-images are either used independently or along with the global and the local features to train the network. Empirical results show that the saliency related aesthetic features might already be learnt by the network as a sub-set of the global features from automatic feature extraction, thus proving the redundancy of the additional saliency module.
This problem is attempted using a deep neural network based approach that is trained on image pairs by incorporating principles from relative learning. Results show that such relative training procedure allows the network to rank the images with a higher accuracy than a state-of-art network trained on the same set of images using binary labels. Further analyzing the results show that training a model using the image pairs learnt better aesthetic features than training on same number of individual binary labelled images.
Additionally, an attempt is made at enhancing the performance of the system by incorporating saliency related information. Given an image, humans might fixate their vision on particular parts of the image, which they might be subconsciously intrigued to. I therefore tried to utilize the saliency information both stand-alone as well as in combination with the global and local aesthetic features by performing two separate sets of experiments. In both the cases, a standard saliency model is chosen and the generated saliency maps are convoluted with the images prior to passing them to the network, thus giving higher importance to the salient regions as compared to the remaining. Thus generated saliency-images are either used independently or along with the global and the local features to train the network. Empirical results show that the saliency related aesthetic features might already be learnt by the network as a sub-set of the global features from automatic feature extraction, thus proving the redundancy of the additional saliency module.
ContributorsGattupalli, Jaya Vijetha (Author) / Li, Baoxin (Thesis advisor) / Davulcu, Hasan (Committee member) / Liang, Jianming (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2016
Description
In this thesis multiple approaches are explored to enhance sentiment analysis of tweets. A standard sentiment analysis model with customized features is first trained and tested to establish a baseline. This is compared to an existing topic based mixture model and a new proposed topic based vector model both of which use Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA) for topic modeling. The proposed topic based vector model has higher accuracies in terms of averaged F scores than the other two models.
ContributorsBaskaran, Swetha (Author) / Davulcu, Hasan (Thesis advisor) / Sen, Arunabha (Committee member) / Hsiao, Ihan (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2016
Description
In supervised learning, machine learning techniques can be applied to learn a model on
a small set of labeled documents which can be used to classify a larger set of unknown
documents. Machine learning techniques can be used to analyze a political scenario
in a given society. A lot of research has been going on in this field to understand
the interactions of various people in the society in response to actions taken by their
organizations.
This paper talks about understanding the Russian influence on people in Latvia.
This is done by building an eeffective model learnt on initial set of documents
containing a combination of official party web-pages, important political leaders' social
networking sites. Since twitter is a micro-blogging site which allows people to post
their opinions on any topic, the model built is used for estimating the tweets sup-
porting the Russian and Latvian political organizations in Latvia. All the documents
collected for analysis are in Latvian and Russian languages which are rich in vocabulary resulting into huge number of features. Hence, feature selection techniques can
be used to reduce the vocabulary set relevant to the classification model. This thesis
provides a comparative analysis of traditional feature selection techniques and implementation of a new iterative feature selection method using EM and cross-domain
training along with supportive visualization tool. This method out performed other
feature selection methods by reducing the number of features up-to 50% along with
good model accuracy. The results from the classification are used to interpret user
behavior and their political influence patterns across organizations in Latvia using
interactive dashboard with combination of powerful widgets.
a small set of labeled documents which can be used to classify a larger set of unknown
documents. Machine learning techniques can be used to analyze a political scenario
in a given society. A lot of research has been going on in this field to understand
the interactions of various people in the society in response to actions taken by their
organizations.
This paper talks about understanding the Russian influence on people in Latvia.
This is done by building an eeffective model learnt on initial set of documents
containing a combination of official party web-pages, important political leaders' social
networking sites. Since twitter is a micro-blogging site which allows people to post
their opinions on any topic, the model built is used for estimating the tweets sup-
porting the Russian and Latvian political organizations in Latvia. All the documents
collected for analysis are in Latvian and Russian languages which are rich in vocabulary resulting into huge number of features. Hence, feature selection techniques can
be used to reduce the vocabulary set relevant to the classification model. This thesis
provides a comparative analysis of traditional feature selection techniques and implementation of a new iterative feature selection method using EM and cross-domain
training along with supportive visualization tool. This method out performed other
feature selection methods by reducing the number of features up-to 50% along with
good model accuracy. The results from the classification are used to interpret user
behavior and their political influence patterns across organizations in Latvia using
interactive dashboard with combination of powerful widgets.
ContributorsBollapragada, Lakshmi Gayatri Niharika (Author) / Davulcu, Hasan (Thesis advisor) / Sen, Arunabha (Committee member) / Hsiao, Ihan (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2016
Description
Measuring node centrality is a critical common denominator behind many important graph mining tasks. While the existing literature offers a wealth of different node centrality measures, it remains a daunting task on how to intervene the node centrality in a desired way. In this thesis, we study the problem of minimizing the centrality of one or more target nodes by edge operation. The heart of the proposed method is an accurate and efficient algorithm to estimate the impact of edge deletion on the spectrum of the underlying network, based on the observation that the edge deletion is essentially a local, sparse perturbation to the original network. Extensive experiments are conducted on a diverse set of real networks to demonstrate the effectiveness, efficiency and scalability of our approach. In particular, it is average of 260.95%, in terms of minimizing eigen-centrality, better than the standard matrix-perturbation based algorithm, with lower time complexity.
ContributorsPeng, Ruiyue (Author) / Tong, Hanghang (Thesis advisor) / He, Jingrui (Committee member) / Davulcu, Hasan (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2016
Description
With the rise of Online Social Networks (OSN) in the last decade, social network analysis has become a crucial research topic. The OSN graphs have unique properties that distinguish them from other types of graphs. In this thesis, five month Tweet corpus collected from Bangladesh - between June 2016 and October 2016 is analyzed, in order to detect accounts that belong to groups. These groups consist of official and non-official twitter handles of political organizations and NGOs in Bangladesh. A set of network, temporal, spatial and behavioral features are proposed to discriminate between accounts belonging to individual twitter users, news, groups and organization leaders. Finally, the experimental results are presented and a subset of relevant features is identified that lead to a generalizable model. Detection of tiny number of groups from large network is achieved with 0.8 precision, 0.75 recall and 0.77 F1 score. The domain independent network and behavioral features and models developed here are suitable for solving twitter account classification problem in any context.
ContributorsGore, Chinmay Chandrashekhar (Author) / Davulcu, Hasan (Thesis advisor) / Hsiao, Ihan (Committee member) / Li, Baoxin (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2017
Description
The game held by National Basketball Association (NBA) is the most popular basketball event on earth. Each year, tons of statistical data are generated from this industry. Meanwhile, managing teams, sports media, and scientists are digging deep into the data ocean. Recent research literature is reviewed with respect to whether NBA teams could be analyzed as connected networks. However, it becomes very time-consuming, if not impossible, for human labor to capture every detail of game events on court of large amount. In this study, an alternative method is proposed to parse public resources from NBA related websites to build degenerated game-wise flow graphs. Then, three different statistical techniques are tested to observe the network properties of such offensive strategy in terms of Home-Away team manner. In addition, a new algorithm is developed to infer real game ball distribution networks at the player level under low-rank constraints. The ball-passing degree matrix of one game is recovered to the optimal solution of low-rank ball transition network by constructing a convex operator. The experimental results on real NBA data demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed algorithm.
ContributorsZhang, Xiaoyu (Author) / Tong, Hanghang (Thesis advisor) / He, Jingrui (Committee member) / Davulcu, Hasan (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2017