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- Genre: Masters Thesis
Description
Climate and land use change are projected to threaten biodiversity over the coming century. However, the combined effects of these threats on biodiversity and the capacity of current conservation networks to protect species' habitat are not well understood. The goals of this study were to evaluate the effect of climate change and urban development on vegetation distribution in a Mediterranean-type ecosystem; to identify the primary source of uncertainty in suitable habitat predictions; and to evaluate how well conservation areas protect future habitat in the Southwest ecoregion of the California Floristic Province. I used a consensus-based modeling approach combining three different species distribution models to predict current and future suitable habitat for 19 plant species representing different plant functional types (PFT) defined by fire-response (obligate seeders, resprouting shrubs), and life forms (herbs, subshurbs). I also examined the response of species grouped by range sizes (large, small). I used two climate models, two emission scenarios, two thresholds, and high-resolution (90m resolution) environmental data to create a range of potential scenarios. I evaluated the effectiveness of an existing conservation network to protect suitable habitat for rare species in light of climate and land use change. The results indicate that the area of suitable habitat for each species varied depending on the climate model, emission scenario, and threshold combination. The suitable habitat for up to four species could disappear from the ecoregion, while suitable habitat for up to 15 other species could decrease under climate change conditions. The centroid of the species' suitable environmental conditions could shift up to 440 km. Large net gains in suitable habitat were predicted for a few species. The suitable habitat area for herbs has a small response to climate change, while obligate seeders could be the most affected PFT. The results indicate that the other two PFTs gain a considerable amount of suitable habitat area. Several rare species could lose suitable habitat area inside designated conservation areas while gaining suitable habitat area outside. Climate change is predicted to be more important than urban development as a driver of habitat loss for vegetation in this region in the coming century. These results indicate that regional analyses of this type are useful and necessary to understand the dynamics of drivers of change at the regional scale and to inform decision making at this scale.
ContributorsBeltrán Villarreal, Bray de Jesús (Author) / Franklin, Janet (Thesis advisor) / Fenichel, Eli P (Committee member) / Kinzig, Ann P (Committee member) / Collins, James P. (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2012
Description
Novel resource inputs represent an increasingly common phenomenon in ecological systems as global change alters environmental factors and species distributions. In semiarid riparian areas, hydric pioneer tree species are being replaced by drought-tolerant species as water availability decreases. Additionally, introduced omnivorous crayfish, which feed upon primary producers, allochthonous detritus, and benthic invertebrates, can impact communities at multiple levels through both direct and indirect effects. In arid and semiarid systems of the American Southwest, crayfish may be especially important as detrital processors due to the lack of specialized detritivores. I tested the impact of virile crayfish (Orconectes virilis) on benthic invertebrates and detrital resources across a gradient of riparian vegetation drought-tolerance using field cages with leaf litter bags in the San Pedro River in Southeastern Arizona. Virile crayfish increased breakdown rate of drought-tolerant saltcedar (Tamarix ramosissima), but did not impact breakdown of Fremont cottonwood (Populus fremontii), Gooding's willow (Salix goodingii), or seepwillow (Baccharis salicifolia). The density and composition of the invertebrate community colonizing leaf litter bags were both heavily influenced by litter species but not directly by crayfish presence. As drought-tolerant species become more abundant in riparian zones, their litter will become a larger component of the organic matter budget of desert streams. By increasing breakdown rates of saltcedar, crayfish shift the composition of leaf litter in streams, which in turn may affect the composition and biomass of colonizing invertebrate communities. More research is needed to determine the full extent to which these alterations change community composition over time.
ContributorsMoody, Eric Kellan (Author) / Sabo, John L (Thesis advisor) / Collins, James P. (Committee member) / Stromberg, Juliet C. (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2012
Description
Emerging infectious diseases (EIDs) in vulnerable populations are a proposed cause of reduced global biodiversity due to local and regional extinctions. Chytridiomycosis, a fungal disease caused by Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd), is affecting amphibian populations worldwide.
Chapter 1 of this thesis reports using lab-raised larval tiger salamanders (Ambystoma tigrinum nebulosum), collected as eggs, to test if Bd infects them. Bd infects metamorphosed tiger salamanders; however, it is currently unknown if larvae can be infected by Bd. Adult frogs tend to host Bd on ventral surfaces and hind legs while tadpoles host Bd in keratinized mouthparts. No research has considered differences in infection between life stages of salamanders. It was hypothesized that Bd can colonize larvae in the same manner as metamorphosed animals. Larval salamanders were inoculated to test if Bd concentrations differ among body regions in larvae compared to metamorphosed salamanders. Larvae can carry Bd with the concentration of Bd varying between body region.
Chapter 2 report using native tiger salamanders (Ambystoma tigrinum nebulosum), from northern Arizona and Bd as a study system to test if Bd is native or introduced to Arizona. It was hypothesized that Bd is not endemic to Arizona, but is introduced. There are multiple hypotheses regarding potential routes Bd may have traveled through Arizona and into Mexico. These hypotheses were tested using the Kaibab Plateau in Coconino County, Arizona, as a study site. The plateau is isolated from surrounding areas by the Grand Canyon to the south and the Vermillion Cliffs to the north serving as major biogeographical barriers. It is hypothesized that tiger salamanders are not dispersing into or out of the Kaibab Plateau due to geological restrictions. Bd, therefore, should not be present on salamanders on the Kaibab Plateau due to geological restriction. Tiger salamanders in stock tanks located on the Kaibab as well as preserved museum specimens housed in the Arizona State University Natural History Collection were sampled. The results indicate that Bd occurs at low levels on Kaibab Plateau tiger salamanders.
Chapter 1 of this thesis reports using lab-raised larval tiger salamanders (Ambystoma tigrinum nebulosum), collected as eggs, to test if Bd infects them. Bd infects metamorphosed tiger salamanders; however, it is currently unknown if larvae can be infected by Bd. Adult frogs tend to host Bd on ventral surfaces and hind legs while tadpoles host Bd in keratinized mouthparts. No research has considered differences in infection between life stages of salamanders. It was hypothesized that Bd can colonize larvae in the same manner as metamorphosed animals. Larval salamanders were inoculated to test if Bd concentrations differ among body regions in larvae compared to metamorphosed salamanders. Larvae can carry Bd with the concentration of Bd varying between body region.
Chapter 2 report using native tiger salamanders (Ambystoma tigrinum nebulosum), from northern Arizona and Bd as a study system to test if Bd is native or introduced to Arizona. It was hypothesized that Bd is not endemic to Arizona, but is introduced. There are multiple hypotheses regarding potential routes Bd may have traveled through Arizona and into Mexico. These hypotheses were tested using the Kaibab Plateau in Coconino County, Arizona, as a study site. The plateau is isolated from surrounding areas by the Grand Canyon to the south and the Vermillion Cliffs to the north serving as major biogeographical barriers. It is hypothesized that tiger salamanders are not dispersing into or out of the Kaibab Plateau due to geological restrictions. Bd, therefore, should not be present on salamanders on the Kaibab Plateau due to geological restriction. Tiger salamanders in stock tanks located on the Kaibab as well as preserved museum specimens housed in the Arizona State University Natural History Collection were sampled. The results indicate that Bd occurs at low levels on Kaibab Plateau tiger salamanders.
ContributorsOtsuru, Shinji Author (Author) / Collins, James P. (Thesis advisor) / Davidson, Elizabeth (Committee member) / Pratt, Stephen (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2019