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Assessment of global model simulations of present and future climate

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Climate change has been one of the major issues of global economic and social concerns in the past decade. To quantitatively predict global climate change, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) of the United Nations have organized a multi-national

Climate change has been one of the major issues of global economic and social concerns in the past decade. To quantitatively predict global climate change, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) of the United Nations have organized a multi-national effort to use global atmosphere-ocean models to project anthropogenically induced climate changes in the 21st century. The computer simulations performed with those models and archived by the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project - Phase 5 (CMIP5) form the most comprehensive quantitative basis for the prediction of global environmental changes on decadal-to-centennial time scales. While the CMIP5 archives have been widely used for policy making, the inherent biases in the models have not been systematically examined. The main objective of this study is to validate the CMIP5 simulations of the 20th century climate with observations to quantify the biases and uncertainties in state-of-the-art climate models. Specifically, this work focuses on three major features in the atmosphere: the jet streams over the North Pacific and Atlantic Oceans and the low level jet (LLJ) stream over central North America which affects the weather in the United States, and the near-surface wind field over North America which is relevant to energy applications. The errors in the model simulations of those features are systematically quantified and the uncertainties in future predictions are assessed for stakeholders to use in climate applications. Additional atmospheric model simulations are performed to determine the sources of the errors in climate models. The results reject a popular idea that the errors in the sea surface temperature due to an inaccurate ocean circulation contributes to the errors in major atmospheric jet streams.

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Date Created
2014

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Parametric analysis of a hypersonic inlet using computational fluid dynamics

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For CFD validation, hypersonic flow fields are simulated and compared with experimental data specifically designed to recreate conditions found by hypersonic vehicles. Simulated flow fields on a cone-ogive with flare at Mach 7.2 are compared with experimental data from NASA

For CFD validation, hypersonic flow fields are simulated and compared with experimental data specifically designed to recreate conditions found by hypersonic vehicles. Simulated flow fields on a cone-ogive with flare at Mach 7.2 are compared with experimental data from NASA Ames Research Center 3.5" hypersonic wind tunnel. A parametric study of turbulence models is presented and concludes that the k-kl-omega transition and SST transition turbulence model have the best correlation. Downstream of the flare's shockwave, good correlation is found for all boundary layer profiles, with some slight discrepancies of the static temperature near the surface. Simulated flow fields on a blunt cone with flare above Mach 10 are compared with experimental data from CUBRC LENS hypervelocity shock tunnel. Lack of vibrational non-equilibrium calculations causes discrepancies in heat flux near the leading edge. Temperature profiles, where non-equilibrium effects are dominant, are compared with the dissociation of molecules to show the effects of dissociation on static temperature. Following the validation studies is a parametric analysis of a hypersonic inlet from Mach 6 to 20. Compressor performance is investigated for numerous cowl leading edge locations up to speeds of Mach 10. The variable cowl study showed positive trends in compressor performance parameters for a range of Mach numbers that arise from maximizing the intake of compressed flow. An interesting phenomenon due to the change in shock wave formation for different Mach numbers developed inside the cowl that had a negative influence on the total pressure recovery. Investigation of the hypersonic inlet at different altitudes is performed to study the effects of Reynolds number, and consequently, turbulent viscous effects on compressor performance. Turbulent boundary layer separation was noted as the cause for a change in compressor performance parameters due to a change in Reynolds number. This effect would not be noticeable if laminar flow was assumed. Mach numbers up to 20 are investigated to study the effects of vibrational and chemical non-equilibrium on compressor performance. A direct impact on the trends on the kinetic energy efficiency and compressor efficiency was found due to dissociation.

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2013

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The shift of precipitation maxima on the annual maximum series using regional climate model precipitation data

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Ten regional climate models (RCMs) and atmosphere-ocean generalized model parings from the North America Regional Climate Change Assessment Program were used to estimate the shift of extreme precipitation due to climate change using present-day and future-day climate scenarios. RCMs emulate

Ten regional climate models (RCMs) and atmosphere-ocean generalized model parings from the North America Regional Climate Change Assessment Program were used to estimate the shift of extreme precipitation due to climate change using present-day and future-day climate scenarios. RCMs emulate winter storms and one-day duration events at the sub-regional level. Annual maximum series were derived for each model pairing, each modeling period; and for annual and winter seasons. The reliability ensemble average (REA) method was used to qualify each RCM annual maximum series to reproduce historical records and approximate average predictions, because there are no future records. These series determined (a) shifts in extreme precipitation frequencies and magnitudes, and (b) shifts in parameters during modeling periods. The REA method demonstrated that the winter season had lower REA factors than the annual season. For the winter season the RCM pairing of the Hadley regional Model 3 and the Geophysical Fluid-Dynamics Laboratory atmospheric-land generalized model had the lowest REA factors. However, in replicating present-day climate, the pairing of the Abdus Salam International Center for Theoretical Physics' Regional Climate Model Version 3 with the Geophysical Fluid-Dynamics Laboratory atmospheric-land generalized model was superior. Shifts of extreme precipitation in the 24-hour event were measured using precipitation magnitude for each frequency in the annual maximum series, and the difference frequency curve in the generalized extreme-value-function parameters. The average trend of all RCM pairings implied no significant shift in the winter annual maximum series, however the REA-selected models showed an increase in annual-season precipitation extremes: 0.37 inches for the 100-year return period and for the winter season suggested approximately 0.57 inches for the same return period. Shifts of extreme precipitation were estimated using predictions 70 years into the future based on RCMs. Although these models do not provide climate information for the intervening 70 year period, the models provide an assertion on the behavior of future climate. The shift in extreme precipitation may be significant in the frequency distribution function, and will vary depending on each model-pairing condition. The proposed methodology addresses the many uncertainties associated with the current methodologies dealing with extreme precipitation.

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2013

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Compressible flow through a porous medium: choking at pore scale and its implications

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Production from a high pressure gas well at a high production-rate encounters the risk of operating near the choking condition for a compressible flow in porous media. The unbounded gas pressure gradient near the point of choking, which is located

Production from a high pressure gas well at a high production-rate encounters the risk of operating near the choking condition for a compressible flow in porous media. The unbounded gas pressure gradient near the point of choking, which is located near the wellbore, generates an effective tensile stress on the porous rock frame. This tensile stress almost always exceeds the tensile strength of the rock and it causes a tensile failure of the rock, leading to wellbore instability. In a porous rock, not all pores are choked at the same flow rate, and when just one pore is choked, the flow through the entire porous medium should be considered choked as the gas pressure gradient at the point of choking becomes singular. This thesis investigates the choking condition for compressible gas flow in a single microscopic pore. Quasi-one-dimensional analysis and axisymmetric numerical simulations of compressible gas flow in a pore scale varicose tube with a number of bumps are carried out, and the local Mach number and pressure along the tube are computed for the flow near choking condition. The effects of tube length, inlet-to-outlet pressure ratio, the number of bumps and the amplitude of the bumps on the choking condition are obtained. These critical values provide guidance for avoiding the choking condition in practice.

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2013

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Theoretical prediction of Sauter mean diameter for pressure-swirl atomizers through integral conservation methods

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A new theoretical model was developed utilizing energy conservation methods in order to determine the fully-atomized cross-sectional Sauter mean diameters of pressure-swirl atomizers. A detailed boundary-layer assessment led to the development of a new viscous dissipation model for droplets in

A new theoretical model was developed utilizing energy conservation methods in order to determine the fully-atomized cross-sectional Sauter mean diameters of pressure-swirl atomizers. A detailed boundary-layer assessment led to the development of a new viscous dissipation model for droplets in the spray. Integral momentum methods were also used to determine the complete velocity history of the droplets and entrained gas in the spray. The model was extensively validated through comparison with experiment and it was found that the model could predict the correct droplet size with high accuracy for a wide range of operating conditions. Based on detailed analysis, it was found that the energy model has a tendency to overestimate the droplet diameters for very low injection velocities, Weber numbers, and cone angles. A full parametric study was also performed in order to unveil some underlying behavior of pressure-swirl atomizers. It was found that at high injection velocities, the kinetic energy in the spray is significantly larger than the surface tension energy, therefore, efforts into improving atomization quality by changing the liquid's surface tension may not be the most productive. From the parametric studies it was also shown how the Sauter mean diameter and entrained velocities vary with increasing ambient gas density. Overall, the present energy model has the potential to provide quick and reasonably accurate solutions for a wide range of operating conditions enabling the user to determine how different injection parameters affect the spray quality.

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2013

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Turbine inlet analysis of injected water droplet behavior

Description

Gas turbines have become widely used in the generation of power for cities. They are used all over the world and must operate under a wide variety of ambient conditions. Every turbine has a temperature at which it operates at

Gas turbines have become widely used in the generation of power for cities. They are used all over the world and must operate under a wide variety of ambient conditions. Every turbine has a temperature at which it operates at peak capacity. In order to attain this temperature in the hotter months various cooling methods are used such as refrigeration inlet cooling systems, evaporative methods, and thermal energy storage systems. One of the more widely used is the evaporative systems because it is one of the safest and easiest to utilize method. However, the behavior of water droplets within the inlet to the turbine has not been extensively studied or documented. It is important to understand how the droplets behave within the inlet so that water droplets above a critical diameter will not enter the compressor and cause damage to the compressor blades. In order to do this a FLUENT simulation was constructed in order to determine the behavior of the water droplets and if any droplets remain at the exit of the inlet, along with their size. In order to do this several engineering drawings were obtained from SRP and studies in order to obtain the correct dimensions. Then the simulation was set up using data obtained from SRP and Parker-Hannifin, the maker of the spray nozzles. Then several sets of simulations were run in order to see how the water droplets behaved under various conditions. These results were then analyzed and quantified so that they could be easily understood. The results showed that the possible damage to the compressor increased with increasing temperature at a constant relative humidity. This is due in part to the fact that in order to keep a constant relative humidity at varying temperatures the mass fraction of water vapor in the air must be changed. As temperature increases the water vapor mass fraction must increase in order to maintain a constant relative humidity. This in turn makes it slightly increases the evaporation time of the water droplets. This will then lead to more droplets exiting the inlet and at larger diameters.

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2013

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Image processing an experimental analysis of image processing in fluidic process

Description

Image processing in canals, rivers and other bodies of water has been a very important concern. This research using Image Processing was performed to obtain a photographic evidence of the data of the site which helps in monitoring the conditions

Image processing in canals, rivers and other bodies of water has been a very important concern. This research using Image Processing was performed to obtain a photographic evidence of the data of the site which helps in monitoring the conditions of the water body and the surroundings. Images are captured using a digital camera and the images are stored onto a datalogger, these images are retrieved using a cellular/ satellite modem. A MATLAB program was designed to obtain the level of water by just entering the file name into to the program, a curve fit model was created to determine the contrast parameters. The contrast parameters were obtained using the data obtained from the gray scale image mainly the mean and variance of the intensity values. The enhanced images are used to determine the level of water by taking pixel intensity plots along the region of interest. The level of water obtained is accurate to less than 2% of the actual level of water observed from the image. High speed imaging in micro channels have various application in industrial field, medical field etc. In medical field it is tested by using blood samples. The experimental procedure proposed determines the flow duration and the defects observed in these channel using a fluid introduced into the micro channel the fluid being water based dye and whole milk. The viscosity of the fluid shows different types of flow patterns and defects in the micro channel. The defects observed vary from a small effect to the flow pattern to an extreme defect in the channel such as obstruction of flow or deformation in the channel. The sample needs to be further analyzed by SEM to get a better insight on the defects.

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2011

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Role of interactions of boundary conditions and baroclinic vorticity in the instability of thermally stratified spinup in a cylinder

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A numerical study of incremental spin-up and spin-up from rest of a thermally- stratified fluid enclosed within a right circular cylinder with rigid bottom and side walls and stress-free upper surface is presented. Thermally stratified spin-up is a typical example

A numerical study of incremental spin-up and spin-up from rest of a thermally- stratified fluid enclosed within a right circular cylinder with rigid bottom and side walls and stress-free upper surface is presented. Thermally stratified spin-up is a typical example of baroclinity, which is initiated by a sudden increase in rotation rate and the tilting of isotherms gives rise to baroclinic source of vorticity. Research by (Smirnov et al. [2010a]) showed the differences in evolution of instabilities when Dirichlet and Neumann thermal boundary conditions were applied at top and bottom walls. Study of parametric variations carried out in this dissertation confirmed the instability patterns observed by them for given aspect ratio and Rossby number values greater than 0.5. Also results reveal that flow maintained axisymmetry and stability for short aspect ratio containers independent of amount of rotational increment imparted. Investigation on vorticity components provides framework for baroclinic vorticity feedback mechanism which plays important role in delayed rise of instabilities when Dirichlet thermal Boundary Conditions are applied.

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2011

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Impact of grid resolution on atmospheric model simulation of offshore surface wind speed

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This study considered the impact of grid resolution on wind velocity simulated by the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. The period simulated spanned November 2009 through January 2010, for which, multi-resolution nested domains were examined. Basic analysis was performed

This study considered the impact of grid resolution on wind velocity simulated by the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. The period simulated spanned November 2009 through January 2010, for which, multi-resolution nested domains were examined. Basic analysis was performed utilizing the data assimilation tools of NCEP/NCAR (National Center for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research) to determine the ideal location to examine during the simulation was the Pacific Northwest portion of the United States, specifically the border between California and Oregon. The simulated mutli-resolution nested domains in this region indicated an increase in apparent wind speed as the resolution for the domain was increased. These findings were confirmed by statistical analysis which identified a positive bias for wind speed with respect to increased resolution as well as a correlation coefficient indicating the existence of a positive change in wind speed with increased resolution. An analysis of temperature change was performed in order to test the validity of the findings of the WRF simulation model. The statistical analysis performed on temperature change throughout the increased grid resolution did not indicate any change in temperature. In fact the correlation coefficient values between the domains were found in the 0.90 range, indicating the non-sensitivity of temperature across the increased resolutions. These results validate the findings of the WRF simulation: increased wind velocity can be observed at higher grid resolution. The study then considered the difference between wind velocity observed over the entire domains and the wind velocity observed solely over offshore locations. Wind velocity was observed to be significantly higher (an increase of 68.4%) in the offshore locations. The findings of this study suggest simulation tools should be utilized to examine domains at a higher resolution in order to identify potential locations for wind farms. The results go further to suggest the ideal location for these potential wind farms will be at offshore locations.

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2012

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Development of acoustic sensor for flow rate monitoring

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The project is mainly aimed at detecting the gas flow rate in Biosensors and medical health applications by means of an acoustic method using whistle based device. Considering the challenges involved in maintaining particular flow rate and back pressure for

The project is mainly aimed at detecting the gas flow rate in Biosensors and medical health applications by means of an acoustic method using whistle based device. Considering the challenges involved in maintaining particular flow rate and back pressure for detecting certain analytes in breath analysis the proposed system along with a cell phone provides a suitable way to maintain the flow rate without any additional battery driven device. To achieve this, a system-level approach is implemented which involves development of a closed end whistle which is placed inside a tightly fitted constant back pressure tube. By means of experimentation pressure vs. flowrate curve is initially obtained and used for the development of the particular whistle. Finally, by means of an FFT code in a cell phone the flow rate vs. frequency characteristic curve is obtained. When a person respires through the device a whistle sound is generated which is captured by the cellphone microphone and a FFT analysis is performed to determine the frequency and hence the flow rate from the characteristic curve. This approach can be used to detect flow rate as low as low as 1L/min. The concept has been applied for the first time in this work to the development and optimization of a breath analyzer.

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Date Created
2012