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- Genre: Doctoral Dissertation
Description
This dissertation is a collection of two essays relating to the dynamic effects of taxation.
In the first chapter, I focus on a key challenge faced by tax reforms: their short-run
welfare consequences. I examine a consumption-based tax reform that, despite the long-run welfare gains it generates, causes the welfare for some groups such as retirees or the working poor to fall during transition between steady states. Using a life-cycle model with heterogeneous households, I show how to devise a transition path from the current U.S. federal tax system to a consumption-based tax system that improves the welfare of current generations as well as those who are born in the long-run steady state. In a nutshell, all households alive at the time of the policy change can choose when they want to switch to the new tax system, or whether they want to switch at all. I find that implementing a tax reform with this feature improves the welfare of 95% of the population in the short run, compared to less than 25% of population in the conventional case with no choice. It takes about 20 years for half of the population to pay their taxes under the new tax code.
In the second chapter, I study the aggregate consequences of the differential tax treatments of U.S. businesses focusing on the role of legal forms of organization. I develop an industry equilibrium model in which the organizational form is an endogenous choice.
This model incorporates the key trade-off that businesses face when choosing their legal forms: the tax treatment of the business income; the access to external capital, and the potential level and evolution of productivity over time.
The model is matched to the firm dynamic features of U.S. businesses and the contributing share of each legal form in total output. Using the model, I study revenue-neutral tax reforms in which legal forms receive the same tax treatments, and
I find that the incentives induced by tax structure for organizational form and external finance are both large. Relative to the benchmark economy, unifying the tax code for all legal forms, can lead to 8% increase in the aggregate output.
In the first chapter, I focus on a key challenge faced by tax reforms: their short-run
welfare consequences. I examine a consumption-based tax reform that, despite the long-run welfare gains it generates, causes the welfare for some groups such as retirees or the working poor to fall during transition between steady states. Using a life-cycle model with heterogeneous households, I show how to devise a transition path from the current U.S. federal tax system to a consumption-based tax system that improves the welfare of current generations as well as those who are born in the long-run steady state. In a nutshell, all households alive at the time of the policy change can choose when they want to switch to the new tax system, or whether they want to switch at all. I find that implementing a tax reform with this feature improves the welfare of 95% of the population in the short run, compared to less than 25% of population in the conventional case with no choice. It takes about 20 years for half of the population to pay their taxes under the new tax code.
In the second chapter, I study the aggregate consequences of the differential tax treatments of U.S. businesses focusing on the role of legal forms of organization. I develop an industry equilibrium model in which the organizational form is an endogenous choice.
This model incorporates the key trade-off that businesses face when choosing their legal forms: the tax treatment of the business income; the access to external capital, and the potential level and evolution of productivity over time.
The model is matched to the firm dynamic features of U.S. businesses and the contributing share of each legal form in total output. Using the model, I study revenue-neutral tax reforms in which legal forms receive the same tax treatments, and
I find that the incentives induced by tax structure for organizational form and external finance are both large. Relative to the benchmark economy, unifying the tax code for all legal forms, can lead to 8% increase in the aggregate output.
ContributorsRaei, Sepideh (Author) / Ventura, Gustavo (Thesis advisor) / Herrendorf, Berthold (Committee member) / Bick, Alexander (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2018
Description
This dissertation consists of three essays on modern economic growth and structural transformation, in particular touching on the reallocation of labor across industries, occupations, and employment statuses.
The first chapter investigates the quantitative importance of non-employment in the labor market outcomes for the United States. During the last 50 years, production has shifted from goods to services. In terms of occupations, the routine employment share decreased, giving way to increases in manual and abstract ones. These two patterns are related, and lower non-employment had an important role. A labor allocation model where goods, market services, and home services use different tasks as inputs is used for quantitative exercises. These show that non-employment could significantly slow down polarization and structural transformation, and induce significant displacement within the labor force.
The second chapter, coauthored with Bart Hobijn and Todd Schoellman, looks at the demographic structure of structural transformation. More than half of labor reallocation during structural transformation is due to new cohorts disproportionately entering growing industries. This suggests substantial costs to labor reallocation. A model of overlapping generations with life-cycle career choice under switching costs and structural transformation is studied. Switching costs accelerate structural transformation, since forward-looking workers enter growing industries in anticipation of future wage growth. Most of the impact of switching costs shows on relative wages.
The third chapter establishes that job polarization is a global phenomenon. The analysis of polarization is extended from a group of developed countries to a sample of 119 economies. At all levels of development, employment shares in routine occupations have decreased since the 1980s. This suggests that routine occupations are becoming increasingly obsolete throughout the world, rather than being outsourced to developing countries. A development accounting framework with technical change at the \textit{task} level is proposed. This allows to quantify and extrapolate task-specific productivity levels. Recent technological change is biased against routine occupations and in favor of manual occupations. This implies that in the following decades, world polarization will continue: employment in routine occupations will decrease, and the reallocation will happen mostly from routine to manual occupations, rather than to abstract ones.
The first chapter investigates the quantitative importance of non-employment in the labor market outcomes for the United States. During the last 50 years, production has shifted from goods to services. In terms of occupations, the routine employment share decreased, giving way to increases in manual and abstract ones. These two patterns are related, and lower non-employment had an important role. A labor allocation model where goods, market services, and home services use different tasks as inputs is used for quantitative exercises. These show that non-employment could significantly slow down polarization and structural transformation, and induce significant displacement within the labor force.
The second chapter, coauthored with Bart Hobijn and Todd Schoellman, looks at the demographic structure of structural transformation. More than half of labor reallocation during structural transformation is due to new cohorts disproportionately entering growing industries. This suggests substantial costs to labor reallocation. A model of overlapping generations with life-cycle career choice under switching costs and structural transformation is studied. Switching costs accelerate structural transformation, since forward-looking workers enter growing industries in anticipation of future wage growth. Most of the impact of switching costs shows on relative wages.
The third chapter establishes that job polarization is a global phenomenon. The analysis of polarization is extended from a group of developed countries to a sample of 119 economies. At all levels of development, employment shares in routine occupations have decreased since the 1980s. This suggests that routine occupations are becoming increasingly obsolete throughout the world, rather than being outsourced to developing countries. A development accounting framework with technical change at the \textit{task} level is proposed. This allows to quantify and extrapolate task-specific productivity levels. Recent technological change is biased against routine occupations and in favor of manual occupations. This implies that in the following decades, world polarization will continue: employment in routine occupations will decrease, and the reallocation will happen mostly from routine to manual occupations, rather than to abstract ones.
ContributorsVindas Quesada, Alberto José (Author) / Hobijn, Bart (Thesis advisor) / Bick, Alexander (Committee member) / Ventura, Gustavo (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2019
Description
The dissertation consists of three essays that deal with variations in economic growth and development across space and time. The essays in particular explore the importance of differences in occupational structures in various settings.
The first chapter documents that intergenerational occupational persistence is significantly higher in poor countries even after controlling for cross-country differences in occupational structures. Based on this empirical fact, I posit that high occupational persistence in poor countries is symptomatic of underlying talent misallocation. Constraints on education financing force sons to choose fathers' occupations over the occupations of their comparative advantage. A version of Roy (1951) model of occupational choice is developed to quantify the impact of occupational misallocation on aggregate productivity. I find that output per worker reduces to a third of the benchmark US economy for the country with the highest level of occupational persistence.
In the second chapter, I use occupational prestige as a proxy of social status to estimate intergenerational occupational mobility for 50 countries spanning the breadth of world's income distribution for both sons and daughters. I find that although relative mobility varies significantly across countries, the correlation between relative mobility and GDP per capita is only mildly positive for sons and is close to zero for daughters. I also consider two measures of absolute mobility: the propensity to move across quartiles and the propensity to move relative to father's occupational prestige. Similar to relative mobility, the first measure of absolute mobility is uncorrelated with GDP per capita. The second measure, however, is positively correlated with GDP per capita with correlations being significantly higher for sons compared to daughters.
The third chapter analyses to what extent the growth in productivity witnessed by India during 1983--2004 can be explained by a better allocation of workers across occupations. I first document that the propensity to work in high-skilled occupations relative to high-caste men increased manifold for high-caste women, low-caste men and low-caste women during this period. Given that innate talent in these occupations is likely to be independent across groups, the chapter argues that the occupational distribution in the 1980s represented talent misallocation in which workers from many groups faced significant barriers to practice an occupation of their comparative advantage. I find that these barriers can explain 15--21\% of the observed growth in output per worker during the period from 1983--2004.
The first chapter documents that intergenerational occupational persistence is significantly higher in poor countries even after controlling for cross-country differences in occupational structures. Based on this empirical fact, I posit that high occupational persistence in poor countries is symptomatic of underlying talent misallocation. Constraints on education financing force sons to choose fathers' occupations over the occupations of their comparative advantage. A version of Roy (1951) model of occupational choice is developed to quantify the impact of occupational misallocation on aggregate productivity. I find that output per worker reduces to a third of the benchmark US economy for the country with the highest level of occupational persistence.
In the second chapter, I use occupational prestige as a proxy of social status to estimate intergenerational occupational mobility for 50 countries spanning the breadth of world's income distribution for both sons and daughters. I find that although relative mobility varies significantly across countries, the correlation between relative mobility and GDP per capita is only mildly positive for sons and is close to zero for daughters. I also consider two measures of absolute mobility: the propensity to move across quartiles and the propensity to move relative to father's occupational prestige. Similar to relative mobility, the first measure of absolute mobility is uncorrelated with GDP per capita. The second measure, however, is positively correlated with GDP per capita with correlations being significantly higher for sons compared to daughters.
The third chapter analyses to what extent the growth in productivity witnessed by India during 1983--2004 can be explained by a better allocation of workers across occupations. I first document that the propensity to work in high-skilled occupations relative to high-caste men increased manifold for high-caste women, low-caste men and low-caste women during this period. Given that innate talent in these occupations is likely to be independent across groups, the chapter argues that the occupational distribution in the 1980s represented talent misallocation in which workers from many groups faced significant barriers to practice an occupation of their comparative advantage. I find that these barriers can explain 15--21\% of the observed growth in output per worker during the period from 1983--2004.
ContributorsSinha, Rishabh (Author) / Herrendorf, Berthold (Thesis advisor) / Schoellman, Todd (Thesis advisor) / Bick, Alexander (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2015
Description
This dissertation consists of three chapters. The first two explore the impact of government policies on human capital accumulation.
Chapter one makes two novel contributions related to the two workhorse models in the human capital literature: Learning by Doing (LBD) and Ben-Porath (BP).
First, I show that BP is much more consistent with empirical life-cycle patterns related to individual earnings growth rates relative to LBD.
Second, I show that the same model features that generate different life-cycle predictions between models also generate different policy implications. In particular, increasing the top marginal labor tax rate, relative to the current US level, generates much larger reductions in lifetime human capital accumulation in the BP model versus the LBD model.
Chapter two examines reforms to the Social Security taxable earnings cap in the context of a human capital model. Old age Social Security benefits in the US are funded by a 10.6% payroll tax up to a cap of $118,500. There has been little work examining the likely outcomes of such a policy change. I use a life-cycle BP human capital model with heterogeneous individuals to investigate the aggregate and distributional steady state impacts of several policy changes the earnings cap. I find that when I eliminate the cap: (1) aggregate output and consumption fall substantially; (2) the role of endogenous human capital is first order; (3) total federal tax revenues are lower or roughly unchanged; (4) about 1/3 of workers are made worse off.
The final chapter studies the existence and optimality of equilibria in the presence of asymmetric information. I develop an equilibrium concept which corresponds to the presence of mutual insurance organizations for a class of adverse selection economies which includes the Spence (1973) signaling and Rothschild-Stiglitz (1976) insurance environments. The defining features of a mutual insurance organization are that policy holders are also the owners of the organization, and that the organization can write policies for which the terms depend on the experience of the mutual members. In general the equilibrium exists and is weakly Pareto optimal. Further, all equilibria have the same individual type utility vector.
Chapter one makes two novel contributions related to the two workhorse models in the human capital literature: Learning by Doing (LBD) and Ben-Porath (BP).
First, I show that BP is much more consistent with empirical life-cycle patterns related to individual earnings growth rates relative to LBD.
Second, I show that the same model features that generate different life-cycle predictions between models also generate different policy implications. In particular, increasing the top marginal labor tax rate, relative to the current US level, generates much larger reductions in lifetime human capital accumulation in the BP model versus the LBD model.
Chapter two examines reforms to the Social Security taxable earnings cap in the context of a human capital model. Old age Social Security benefits in the US are funded by a 10.6% payroll tax up to a cap of $118,500. There has been little work examining the likely outcomes of such a policy change. I use a life-cycle BP human capital model with heterogeneous individuals to investigate the aggregate and distributional steady state impacts of several policy changes the earnings cap. I find that when I eliminate the cap: (1) aggregate output and consumption fall substantially; (2) the role of endogenous human capital is first order; (3) total federal tax revenues are lower or roughly unchanged; (4) about 1/3 of workers are made worse off.
The final chapter studies the existence and optimality of equilibria in the presence of asymmetric information. I develop an equilibrium concept which corresponds to the presence of mutual insurance organizations for a class of adverse selection economies which includes the Spence (1973) signaling and Rothschild-Stiglitz (1976) insurance environments. The defining features of a mutual insurance organization are that policy holders are also the owners of the organization, and that the organization can write policies for which the terms depend on the experience of the mutual members. In general the equilibrium exists and is weakly Pareto optimal. Further, all equilibria have the same individual type utility vector.
ContributorsBlandin, Adam (Author) / Ventura, Gustavo (Thesis advisor) / Schoellman, Todd (Committee member) / Wiswall, Matthew (Committee member) / Bick, Alexander (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2016
Description
In this dissertation, I study two different sides of inequality. In the first part of this dissertation, I show what the role of unwanted childbirth is on women’s wages and education. I document that on average, mothers whose first childbirth was unwanted have lower levels of education, lower wages, and have their first childbirth at younger ages compared to the rest of the mothers. In the second part of this dissertation, I show how the introduction of a carbon tax affects individuals with different educational attainment. In particular, I show how the carbon tax affects their consumption, but also how the tax reduces air pollution and consequently affects individual mortality. I find that introducing this mortality channel reduces the aggregate welfare cost of a carbon tax by about half. In terms of the distributional effect of the policy, the mortality channel deepens the regressivity of the tax, since the benefits in terms of mortality reductions are similar for all individuals, the valuation of this benefit is higher for more educated individuals.
ContributorsOdriozola, Juan (Author) / Bick, Alexander (Thesis advisor) / Vereshchagina, Galina (Thesis advisor) / Kuminoff, Nicolai (Committee member) / Fried, Stephie (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2022
Description
This collection of essays attempts to address the question: how does recent technological progress shape inequality in the labor market? In the first chapter, I document and investigate life-cycle profiles of skill premiums across cohorts. My empirical analysis shows that younger cohorts have steeper growth in the skill premium before age 40 but flatter growth after 40. I use a human capital investment model to account for the cross-cohort variation in skill premium profiles. The results indicate that the flattened growth after age 40 is caused by the drop in human capital (of high-skill workers) near the end of the life cycle. Besides, the magnitude of life-cycle growth in the skill premium is mainly driven by the relative skill price. In chapter two and three, I study how technology usage affects earnings growth and earnings inequality over the life-cycle. In chapter 2, I construct a novel index to identify technology usage at the individual level using occupations as the proxy. I document technology usage patterns over the life-cycle and investigate its empirical relationship with labor earnings. I find that technology usage accounts for more than one-third of the growth in life-cycle inequality. In chapter 3, I develop a life-cycle model with endogenous human capital investments and technology choices to quantify the relative importance of technology usage. The model features rich interactions between technology and human capital such that workers with high human capital are more likely to work with advanced technologies and vice versa. I find that technology usage contributes 31% of the growth in mean earnings and 46% of the growth in life-cycle inequality. I also evaluate policy implications of non-linear taxation on labor earnings. When tax progressivity on labor earnings is changed from US to European levels, the college attainment rate drops by 7 percentage points, and the growth in mean earnings decreases by 23%.
ContributorsShi, Siyu (Author) / Ventura, Gustavo (Thesis advisor) / Bick, Alexander (Committee member) / Kovrijnykh, Natalia (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2023
Description
The demographic transition from high birth to low birth is a fundamental process that countries undertake. It can create substantial challenges for economic growth and social policy by straining public finance. This dissertation explores the sources of low fertility and examines the effects of government policies that aim to affect fertility behavior.In the first chapter, I use a static model of fertility choices to estimate to what extent different factors contribute to low fertility in South Korea and examine the effects of child-related policies on fertility. In the model, two key factors affect fer- tility choices: the minimum consumption level required to have a child and women’s opportunity cost of raising children. The model is calibrated to match the fertility behavior of Korean women and used to examine the impact of lump-sum transfers and childcare subsidies on their fertility. I find that transfers to households per child are more cost-effective than child care subsidies. Transfers per child can reach the target fertility at a lower cost by targeting women who already have children and whose wage is sufficiently low to choose to have another child rather than work. In the case of child care subsidies, on the other hand, women who are childless or have one child and whose wage is sufficiently high to choose working over having a child are the most responsive to the policy. Thus, transfers can achieve the target fertility most cost-effectively by inducing higher-order fertility among relatively lower-wage women.
In the second chapter, I document the empirical relationships between homeown- ership and fertility in South Korea. First, there is a positive relationship between the home price and fertility among homeowners. A rise in home prices by 7,346,000 KRW, equivalent to 8734.94 USD in 2010, is associated with a 2.95% increase in the mean likelihood of giving birth. Second, for renters, the same increase in the local home price in the prior year is related to a 1.24% decrease in the mean likelihood of giving birth.
ContributorsJeong, Minju (Author) / Bick, Alexander (Thesis advisor) / Vereshchagina, Galina (Thesis advisor) / Ventura, Gustavo (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2022
Description
My dissertation combines the notion of residential sorting from Tiebout (1956) with Grossman’s (1972) concept of a health production function to develop a new empirical framework for investigating what individuals’ residential location choices reveal about their valuation of amenities, the welfare effects of climate change, the forces underlying environmental justice, and the value of a statistical life. Location
choices are affected by age, health, and financial constraints, and by exposure to local amenities that affect people’s health and longevity. Chapter 1 previews how I formalize this idea and investigate its empirical implications in three interrelated essays. Chapter 2 investigates interactions between health, the environment, and income. Seniors tend to move at higher rates after being diagnosed with new chronic medical conditions. While seniors generally tend to move to locations with less polluted air, those who have been diagnosed with respiratory conditions move to relatively more polluted locations. This counterintuitive pattern is reconciled by documenting that new diagnoses bring about increases in medical expenditures, thereby limiting disposable income that can be spent on housing. Relatively cheaper places tend to be more polluted, and higher exposure to pollution leaves seniors more vulnerable to future health shocks. In Chapter 3, I combine information about housing prices with estimates of location-specific effects on mortality to estimate the Value of a Statistical Life (VSL) for seniors - one of the most important statistics used to evaluate policies affecting mortality. Since local amenities correlate with causal mortality effects, but also provide utility independently, the difficulty in controlling for local amenities implies that my VSL estimates are best interpreted as bounds. Chapter 4 builds a new structural framework for evaluating spatially heterogeneous changes to local amenities. I estimate a dynamic model of location choice with a sample of 5.5 million seniors from 2001-2013. Their average annual willingness-to-pay to avoid future climate change in the United States under a “business as usual” scenario ranges from $962 for older, sicker groups who are more vulnerable to climate change’s negative effects on health to -$1,894 for younger, healthier groups, who value warmer winters and are relatively resilient.
choices are affected by age, health, and financial constraints, and by exposure to local amenities that affect people’s health and longevity. Chapter 1 previews how I formalize this idea and investigate its empirical implications in three interrelated essays. Chapter 2 investigates interactions between health, the environment, and income. Seniors tend to move at higher rates after being diagnosed with new chronic medical conditions. While seniors generally tend to move to locations with less polluted air, those who have been diagnosed with respiratory conditions move to relatively more polluted locations. This counterintuitive pattern is reconciled by documenting that new diagnoses bring about increases in medical expenditures, thereby limiting disposable income that can be spent on housing. Relatively cheaper places tend to be more polluted, and higher exposure to pollution leaves seniors more vulnerable to future health shocks. In Chapter 3, I combine information about housing prices with estimates of location-specific effects on mortality to estimate the Value of a Statistical Life (VSL) for seniors - one of the most important statistics used to evaluate policies affecting mortality. Since local amenities correlate with causal mortality effects, but also provide utility independently, the difficulty in controlling for local amenities implies that my VSL estimates are best interpreted as bounds. Chapter 4 builds a new structural framework for evaluating spatially heterogeneous changes to local amenities. I estimate a dynamic model of location choice with a sample of 5.5 million seniors from 2001-2013. Their average annual willingness-to-pay to avoid future climate change in the United States under a “business as usual” scenario ranges from $962 for older, sicker groups who are more vulnerable to climate change’s negative effects on health to -$1,894 for younger, healthier groups, who value warmer winters and are relatively resilient.
ContributorsMathes, Sophie (Author) / Kuminoff, Nicolai V. (Thesis advisor) / Murphy, Alvin D (Thesis advisor) / Bishop, Kelly C. (Committee member) / Ketcham, Jonathan (Committee member) / Bick, Alexander (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2020