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- Genre: Academic theses
Description
The dynamics of urban water use are characterized by spatial and temporal variability that is influenced by associated factors at different scales. Thus it is important to capture the relationship between urban water use and its determinants in a spatio-temporal framework in order to enhance understanding and management of urban water demand. This dissertation aims to contribute to understanding the spatio-temporal relationships between single-family residential (SFR) water use and its determinants in a desert city. The dissertation has three distinct papers to support this goal. In the first paper, I demonstrate that aggregated scale data can be reliably used to study the relationship between SFR water use and its determinants without leading to significant ecological fallacy. The usability of aggregated scale data facilitates scientific inquiry about SFR water use with more available aggregated scale data. The second paper advances understanding of the relationship between SFR water use and its associated factors by accounting for the spatial and temporal dependence in a panel data setting. The third paper of this dissertation studies the historical contingency, spatial heterogeneity, and spatial connectivity in the relationship of SFR water use and its determinants by comparing three different regression models. This dissertation demonstrates the importance and necessity of incorporating spatio-temporal components, such as scale, dependence, and heterogeneity, into SFR water use research. Spatial statistical models should be used to understand the effects of associated factors on water use and test the effectiveness of certain management policies since spatial effects probably will significantly influence the estimates if only non-spatial statistical models are used. Urban water demand management should pay attention to the spatial heterogeneity in predicting the future water demand to achieve more accurate estimates, and spatial statistical models provide a promising method to do this job.
ContributorsOuyang, Yun (Author) / Wentz, Elizabeth (Thesis advisor) / Ruddell, Benjamin (Thesis advisor) / Harlan, Sharon (Committee member) / Janssen, Marcus (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2013
Description
The Hohokam of central Arizona left behind evidence of a culture markedly different from and more complex than the small communities of O'odham farmers first encountered by Europeans in the sixteenth and seventeenth centuries A.D. Archaeologists have worked for well over a century to document Hohokam culture history, but much about Pre-Columbian life in the Sonoran Desert remains poorly understood. In particular, the organization of the Hohokam economy in the Phoenix Basin has been an elusive and complicated subject, despite having been the focus of much previous research. This dissertation provides an assessment of several working hypotheses regarding the organization and evolution of the pottery distribution sector of the Hohokam economy. This was accomplished using an agent-based modeling methodology known as pattern-oriented modeling. The objective of the research was to first identify a variety of economic models that may explain patterns of artifact distribution in the archaeological record. Those models were abstract representations of the real-world system theoretically drawn from different sources, including microeconomics, mathematics (network/graph theory), and economic anthropology. Next, the effort was turned toward implementing those hypotheses as agent-based models, and finally assessing whether or not any of the models were consistent with Hohokam ceramic datasets. The project's pattern-oriented modeling methodology led to the discard of several hypotheses, narrowing the range of plausible models of the organization of the Hohokam economy. The results suggest that for much of the Hohokam sequence a market-based system, perhaps structured around workshop procurement and shopkeeper merchandise, provided the means of distributing pottery from specialist producers to widely distributed consumers. Perhaps unsurprisingly, the results of this project are broadly consistent with earlier researchers' interpretations that the structure of the Hohokam economy evolved through time, growing more complex throughout the Preclassic, and undergoing a major reorganization resulting in a less complicated system at the transition to the Classic Period.
ContributorsWatts, Joshua (Author) / Abbott, David R. (Thesis advisor) / Barton, C Michael (Committee member) / Van Der Leeuw, Sander (Committee member) / Janssen, Marcus (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2013
Description
Cyber threats are growing in number and sophistication making it important to continually study and improve all dimensions of cyber defense. Human teamwork in cyber defense analysis has been overlooked even though it has been identified as an important predictor of cyber defense performance. Also, to detect advanced forms of threats effective information sharing and collaboration between the cyber defense analysts becomes imperative. Therefore, through this dissertation work, I took a cognitive engineering approach to investigate and improve cyber defense teamwork. The approach involved investigating a plausible team-level bias called the information pooling bias in cyber defense analyst teams conducting the detection task that is part of forensics analysis through human-in-the-loop experimentation. The approach also involved developing agent-based models based on the experimental results to explore the cognitive underpinnings of this bias in human analysts. A prototype collaborative visualization tool was developed by considering the plausible cognitive limitations contributing to the bias to investigate whether a cognitive engineering-driven visualization tool can help mitigate the bias in comparison to off-the-shelf tools. It was found that participant teams conducting the collaborative detection tasks as part of forensics analysis, experience the information pooling bias affecting their performance. Results indicate that cognitive friendly visualizations can help mitigate the effect of this bias in cyber defense analysts. Agent-based modeling produced insights on internal cognitive processes that might be contributing to this bias which could be leveraged in building future visualizations. This work has multiple implications including the development of new knowledge about the science of cyber defense teamwork, a demonstration of the advantage of developing tools using a cognitive engineering approach, a demonstration of the advantage of using a hybrid cognitive engineering methodology to study teams in general and finally, a demonstration of the effect of effective teamwork on cyber defense performance.
ContributorsRajivan, Prashanth (Author) / Cooke, Nancy J. (Thesis advisor) / Ahn, Gail-Joon (Committee member) / Janssen, Marcus (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2014