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How fast is evolution? In this dissertation I document a profound change that occurred around the middle of the 20th century in the way that ecologists conceptualized the temporal and spatial scales of adaptive evolution, through the lens of British plant ecologist Anthony David Bradshaw (1926–2008). In the early 1960s,

How fast is evolution? In this dissertation I document a profound change that occurred around the middle of the 20th century in the way that ecologists conceptualized the temporal and spatial scales of adaptive evolution, through the lens of British plant ecologist Anthony David Bradshaw (1926–2008). In the early 1960s, one prominent ecologist distinguished what he called “ecological time”—around ten generations—from “evolutionary time”— around half of a million years. For most ecologists working in the first half of the 20th century, evolution by natural selection was indeed a slow and plodding process, tangible in its products but not in its processes, and inconsequential for explaining most ecological phenomena. During the 1960s, however, many ecologists began to see evolution as potentially rapid and observable. Natural selection moved from the distant past—a remote explanans for both extant biological diversity and paleontological phenomena—to a measurable, quantifiable mechanism molding populations in real time.

The idea that adaptive evolution could be rapid and highly localized was a significant enabling condition for the emergence of ecological genetics in the second half of the 20th century. Most of what historians know about that conceptual shift and the rise of ecological genetics centers on the work of Oxford zoologist E. B. Ford and his students on polymorphism in Lepidotera, especially industrial melanism in Biston betularia. I argue that ecological genetics in Britain was not the brainchild of an infamous patriarch (Ford), but rather the outgrowth of a long tradition of pastureland research at plant breeding stations in Scotland and Wales, part of a discipline known as “genecology” or “experimental taxonomy.” Bradshaw’s investigative activities between 1948 and 1968 were an outgrowth of the specific brand of plant genecology practiced at the Welsh and Scottish Plant Breeding stations. Bradshaw generated evidence that plant populations with negligible reproductive isolation—separated by just a few meters—could diverge and adapt to contrasting environmental conditions in just a few generations. In Bradshaw’s research one can observe the crystallization of a new concept of rapid adaptive evolution, and the methodological and conceptual transformation of genecology into ecological genetics.
ContributorsPeirson, Bruce Richard Erick (Author) / Laubichler, Manfred D (Thesis advisor) / Maienschein, Jane (Thesis advisor) / Creath, Richard (Committee member) / Collins, James (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2015
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Using a simple $SI$ infection model, I uncover the

overall dynamics of the system and how they depend on the incidence

function. I consider both an epidemic and endemic perspective of the

model, but in both cases, three classes of incidence

functions are identified.

In the epidemic form,

power incidences, where the infective portion $I^p$

Using a simple $SI$ infection model, I uncover the

overall dynamics of the system and how they depend on the incidence

function. I consider both an epidemic and endemic perspective of the

model, but in both cases, three classes of incidence

functions are identified.

In the epidemic form,

power incidences, where the infective portion $I^p$ has $p\in(0,1)$,

cause unconditional host extinction,

homogeneous incidences have host extinction for certain parameter constellations and

host survival for others, and upper density-dependent incidences

never cause host extinction. The case of non-extinction in upper

density-dependent

incidences extends to the case where a latent period is included.

Using data from experiments with rhanavirus and salamanders,

maximum likelihood estimates are applied to the data.

With these estimates,

I generate the corrected Akaike information criteria, which

reward a low likelihood and punish the use of more parameters.

This generates the Akaike weight, which is used to fit

parameters to the data, and determine which incidence functions

fit the data the best.

From an endemic perspective, I observe

that power incidences cause initial condition dependent host extinction for

some parameter constellations and global stability for others,

homogeneous incidences have host extinction for certain parameter constellations and

host survival for others, and upper density-dependent incidences

never cause host extinction.

The dynamics when the incidence function is homogeneous are deeply explored.

I expand the endemic considerations in the homogeneous case

by adding a predator into the model.

Using persistence theory, I show the conditions for the persistence of each of the

predator, prey, and parasite species. Potential dynamics of the system include parasite mediated

persistence of the predator, survival of the ecosystem at high initial predator levels and

ecosystem collapse at low initial predator levels, persistence of all three species, and much more.
ContributorsFarrell, Alexander E. (Author) / Thieme, Horst R (Thesis advisor) / Smith, Hal (Committee member) / Kuang, Yang (Committee member) / Tang, Wenbo (Committee member) / Collins, James (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2017