Matching Items (2)
Filtering by

Clear all filters

156637-Thumbnail Image.png
Description
Earth-system models describe the interacting components of the climate system and

technological systems that affect society, such as communication infrastructures. Data

assimilation addresses the challenge of state specification by incorporating system

observations into the model estimates. In this research, a particular data

assimilation technique called the Local Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter (LETKF) is

applied

Earth-system models describe the interacting components of the climate system and

technological systems that affect society, such as communication infrastructures. Data

assimilation addresses the challenge of state specification by incorporating system

observations into the model estimates. In this research, a particular data

assimilation technique called the Local Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter (LETKF) is

applied to the ionosphere, which is a domain of practical interest due to its effects

on infrastructures that depend on satellite communication and remote sensing. This

dissertation consists of three main studies that propose strategies to improve space-

weather specification during ionospheric extreme events, but are generally applicable

to Earth-system models:

Topic I applies the LETKF to estimate ion density with an idealized model of

the ionosphere, given noisy synthetic observations of varying sparsity. Results show

that the LETKF yields accurate estimates of the ion density field and unobserved

components of neutral winds even when the observation density is spatially sparse

(2% of grid points) and there is large levels (40%) of Gaussian observation noise.

Topic II proposes a targeted observing strategy for data assimilation, which uses

the influence matrix diagnostic to target errors in chosen state variables. This

strategy is applied in observing system experiments, in which synthetic electron density

observations are assimilated with the LETKF into the Thermosphere-Ionosphere-

Electrodynamics Global Circulation Model (TIEGCM) during a geomagnetic storm.

Results show that assimilating targeted electron density observations yields on

average about 60%–80% reduction in electron density error within a 600 km radius of

the observed location, compared to 15% reduction obtained with randomly placed

vertical profiles.

Topic III proposes a methodology to account for systematic model bias arising

ifrom errors in parametrized solar and magnetospheric inputs. This strategy is ap-

plied with the TIEGCM during a geomagnetic storm, and is used to estimate the

spatiotemporal variations of bias in electron density predictions during the

transitionary phases of the geomagnetic storm. Results show that this strategy reduces

error in 1-hour predictions of electron density by about 35% and 30% in polar regions

during the main and relaxation phases of the geomagnetic storm, respectively.
ContributorsDurazo, Juan, Ph.D (Author) / Kostelich, Eric J. (Thesis advisor) / Mahalov, Alex (Thesis advisor) / Tang, Wenbo (Committee member) / Moustaoui, Mohamed (Committee member) / Platte, Rodrigo (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2018
158190-Thumbnail Image.png
Description
This dissertation consists of three essays, each examining distinct aspects about public organization adaptation to extreme events using evidence from public transit agencies under the influence of extreme weather in the United States (U.S.). The first essay focuses on predicting organizational adaptive behavior. Building on extant theories on adaptation and

This dissertation consists of three essays, each examining distinct aspects about public organization adaptation to extreme events using evidence from public transit agencies under the influence of extreme weather in the United States (U.S.). The first essay focuses on predicting organizational adaptive behavior. Building on extant theories on adaptation and organizational learning, it develops a theoretical framework to uncover the pathways through which extreme events impact public organizations and identify the key learning mechanisms involved in adaptation. Using a structural equation model on data from a 2016 national survey, the study highlights the critical role of risk perception to translate signals from the external environment to organizational adaptive behavior.

The second essay expands on the first one to incorporate the organizational environment and model the adaptive system. Combining an agent-based model and qualitative interviews with key decision makers, the study investigates how adaptation occurs over time in multiplex contexts consisting of the natural hazards, organizations, institutions and social networks. The study ends with a series of refined propositions about the mechanisms involved in public organization adaptation. Specifically, the analysis suggests that risk perception needs to be examined relative to risk tolerance to determine organizational motivation to adapt, and underscore the criticality of coupling between the motivation and opportunities to enable adaptation. The results further show that the coupling can be enhanced through lowering organizational risk perception decay or synchronizing opportunities with extreme event occurrences to promote adaptation.

The third essay shifts the gaze from adaptation mechanisms to organizational outcomes. It uses a stochastic frontier analysis to quantify the impacts of extreme events on public organization performance and, importantly, the role of organizational adaptive capacity in moderating the impacts. The findings confirm that extreme events negatively affect organizational performance and that organizations with higher adaptive capacity are more able to mitigate those effects, thereby lending support to research efforts in the first two essays dedicated to identifying preconditions and mechanisms involved in the adaptation process. Taken together, this dissertation comprehensively advances understanding about public organization adaptation to extreme events.
ContributorsZhang, Fengxiu (Author) / Welch, Eric (Thesis advisor) / Barton, Michael (Committee member) / Bretschneider, Stuart (Committee member) / Feeney, Mary K. (Committee member) / Maroulis, Spiro (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2020