Matching Items (2)
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- All Subjects: Communicable diseases
- Creators: Perrings, Charles
Description
The spread of dengue worldwide currently places half of the world’s population at risk. In the absence of a dengue vaccine, control of the disease requires control of the mosquito species that transmit the virus. The most important of these is. Advances in research detailing the responsiveness of Aedes aegypti to small changes in climate enable the production of more sophisticated remote sensing and surveillance techniques for monitoring these populations. Close monitoring of global dengue activity and outbreaks likewise enables a greater specificity when determining to which human populations the virus is most likely to spread. There have been no locally acquired cases in Arizona to date, but the high abundance of Aedes aegypti in the Phoenix Metropolitan area raises concern within the Arizona Department of Health Services over the potential transmission of dengue in the city. This study develops a model that combines mosquito abundance, micro-climatic and demographic information to delineate regions in Phoenix that are most support transmission of dengue. The first chapter focuses on the impact that daytime high and low temperatures have on Aedes aegypti’s ability to become infectious with dengue. It argues that NDVI (normal difference vegetative index) imaging of the Phoenix area can be used to plot areas where mosquitoes are most likely to become competent vectors. The second chapter focuses on the areas in the city where mosquitoes are most likely to be exposed to the virus. Based on proximity to Phoenix and the high volume of traffic across the Arizona-Mexico border, I treat the Mexican state of Sonora as the source of infection. I combine these two analyses, micro-climatic and demographic, to produce maps of Phoenix that show the locations with the highest likelihood of transmission overall.
ContributorsHughes, Tyler (Author) / Perrings, Charles (Thesis advisor) / Kinzig, Ann (Committee member) / Hall, Sharon J (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2016
Description
The closer integration of the world economy has yielded many positive benefits including the worldwide diffusion of innovative technologies and efficiency gains following the widening of international markets. However, closer integration also has negative consequences. Specifically, I focus on the ecology and economics of the spread of species and pathogens. I approach the problem using theoretical and applied models in ecology and economics. First, I use a multi-species theoretical network model to evaluate the ability of dispersal to maintain system-level biodiversity and productivity. I then extend this analysis to consider the effects of dispersal in a coupled social-ecological system where people derive benefits from species. Finally, I estimate an empirical model of the foot and mouth disease risks of trade. By combining outbreak and trade data I estimate the disease risks associated with the international trade in live animals while controlling for the biosecurity measures in place in importing countries and the presence of wild reservoirs. I find that the risks associated with the spread and dispersal of species may be positive or negative, but that this relationship depends on the ecological and economic components of the system and the interactions between them.
ContributorsShanafelt, David William (Author) / Perrings, Charles (Thesis advisor) / Fenichel, Eli (Committee member) / Richards, Timorthy (Committee member) / Janssen, Marco (Committee member) / Collins, James (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2016