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Description
The characteristics of the wintertime 500hPa height surface, the level of non-divergence and used for identifying/observing synoptic-scale features (ridges and troughs), and their impact on precipitation are of significance to forecasters, natural resource managers and planners across the southwestern United States. For this study, I evaluated the location of the 500hPa mean Pacific ridge axis over the winter for the period of 1948/49 to 2011/12 and derived the mean ridge axis in terms of location (longitude) and intensity (geopotential meters) from the NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis dataset. After deriving a mean ridge axis climatology and analyzing its behavior over time, I correlated mean location and intensity values to observed wintertime precipitation in select U.S. Climate Divisions in Arizona, Colorado, Nevada, Utah and New Mexico. This resulted in two findings. First specific to the 500hPa ridge behavior, the ridge has been moving eastward and also has been intensifying through time. Second, results involving correlation tests between mean ridge location and intensity indicate precipitation across the selected Southwest Climate Divisions are strongly related to mean ridge intensity slightly more than ridge location. The relationships between mean ridge axis and observed precipitation also are negative, indicating an increase of one of the ridge parameters (i.e. continued eastward movement or intensification) lead to drier winter seasons across the Southwest. Increased understanding of relationships between upper-level ridging and observed wintertime precipitation aids in natural resource planning for an already arid region that relies heavily on winter precipitation.
ContributorsNolte, Jessica Marie (Author) / Cerveny, Randall S. (Thesis advisor) / Selover, Nancy J. (Committee member) / Brazel, Anthony J. (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2013
Description
The implications of a changing climate have a profound impact on human life, society, and policy making. The need for accurate climate prediction becomes increasingly important as we better understand these implications. Currently, the most widely used climate prediction relies on the synthesis of climate model simulations organized by the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP); these simulations are ensemble-averaged to construct projections for the 21st century climate. However, a significant degree of bias and variability in the model simulations for the 20th century climate is well-known at both global and regional scales. Based on that insight, this study provides an alternative approach for constructing climate projections that incorporates knowledge of model bias. This approach is demonstrated to be a viable alternative which can be easily implemented by water resource managers for potentially more accurate projections. Tests of the new approach are provided on a global scale with an emphasis on semiarid regional studies for their particular vulnerability to water resource changes, using both the former CMIP Phase 3 (CMIP3) and current Phase 5 (CMIP5) model archives. This investigation is accompanied by a detailed analysis of the dynamical processes and water budget to understand the behaviors and sources of model biases. Sensitivity studies of selected CMIP5 models are also performed with an atmospheric component model by testing the relationship between climate change forcings and model simulated response. The information derived from each study is used to determine the progressive quality of coupled climate models in simulating the global water cycle by rigorously investigating sources of model bias related to the moisture budget. As such, the conclusions of this project are highly relevant to model development and potentially may be used to further improve climate projections.
ContributorsBaker, Noel C (Author) / Huang, Huei-Ping (Thesis advisor) / Trimble, Steve (Committee member) / Anderson, James (Committee member) / Clarke, Amanda (Committee member) / Calhoun, Ronald (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2013
Description
The partitioning of available solar energy into different fluxes at the Earth's surface is important in determining different physical processes, such as turbulent transport, subsurface hydrology, land-atmospheric interactions, etc. Direct measurements of these turbulent fluxes were carried out using eddy-covariance (EC) towers. However, the distribution of EC towers is sparse due to relatively high cost and practical difficulties in logistics and deployment. As a result, data is temporally and spatially limited and is inadequate to be used for researches at large scales, such as regional and global climate modeling. Besides field measurements, an alternative way is to estimate turbulent fluxes based on the intrinsic relations between surface energy budget components, largely through thermodynamic equilibrium. These relations, referred as relative efficiency, have been included in several models to estimate the magnitude of turbulent fluxes in surface energy budgets such as latent heat and sensible heat. In this study, three theoretical models based on the lumped heat transfer model, the linear stability analysis and the maximum entropy principle respectively, were investigated. Model predictions of relative efficiencies were compared with turbulent flux data over different land covers, viz. lake, grassland and suburban surfaces. Similar results were observed over lake and suburban surface but significant deviation is found over vegetation surface. The relative efficiency of outgoing longwave radiation is found to be orders of magnitude deviated from theoretic predictions. Meanwhile, results show that energy partitioning process is influenced by the surface water availability to a great extent. The study provides insight into what property is determining energy partitioning process over different land covers and gives suggestion for future models.
ContributorsYang, Jiachuan (Author) / Wang, Zhihua (Thesis advisor) / Huang, Huei-Ping (Committee member) / Vivoni, Enrique (Committee member) / Mays, Larry (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2012
Description
This thesis outlines the development of a vector retrieval technique, based on data assimilation, for a coherent Doppler LIDAR (Light Detection and Ranging). A detailed analysis of the Optimal Interpolation (OI) technique for vector retrieval is presented. Through several modifications to the OI technique, it is shown that the modified technique results in significant improvement in velocity retrieval accuracy. These modifications include changes to innovation covariance portioning, covariance binning, and analysis increment calculation. It is observed that the modified technique is able to make retrievals with better accuracy, preserves local information better, and compares well with tower measurements. In order to study the error of representativeness and vector retrieval error, a lidar simulator was constructed. Using the lidar simulator a thorough sensitivity analysis of the lidar measurement process and vector retrieval is carried out. The error of representativeness as a function of scales of motion and sensitivity of vector retrieval to look angle is quantified. Using the modified OI technique, study of nocturnal flow in Owens' Valley, CA was carried out to identify and understand uncharacteristic events on the night of March 27th 2006. Observations from 1030 UTC to 1230 UTC (0230 hr local time to 0430 hr local time) on March 27 2006 are presented. Lidar observations show complex and uncharacteristic flows such as sudden bursts of westerly cross-valley wind mixing with the dominant up-valley wind. Model results from Coupled Ocean/Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System (COAMPS®) and other in-situ instrumentations are used to corroborate and complement these observations. The modified OI technique is used to identify uncharacteristic and extreme flow events at a wind development site. Estimates of turbulence and shear from this technique are compared to tower measurements. A formulation for equivalent wind speed in the presence of variations in wind speed and direction, combined with shear is developed and used to determine wind energy content in presence of turbulence.
ContributorsChoukulkar, Aditya (Author) / Calhoun, Ronald (Thesis advisor) / Mahalov, Alex (Committee member) / Kostelich, Eric (Committee member) / Huang, Huei-Ping (Committee member) / Phelan, Patrick (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2013
Description
The numerical climate models have provided scientists, policy makers and the general public, crucial information for climate projections since mid-20th century. An international effort to compare and validate the simulations of all major climate models is organized by the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP), which has gone through several phases since 1995 with CMIP5 being the state of the art. In parallel, an organized effort to consolidate all observational data in the past century culminates in the creation of several "reanalysis" datasets that are considered the closest representation of the true observation. This study compared the climate variability and trend in the climate model simulations and observations on the timescales ranging from interannual to centennial. The analysis focused on the dynamic climate quantity of zonal-mean zonal wind and global atmospheric angular momentum (AAM), and incorporated multiple datasets from reanalysis and the most recent CMIP3 and CMIP5 archives. For the observation, the validation of AAM by the length-of-day (LOD) and the intercomparison of AAM revealed a good agreement among reanalyses on the interannual and the decadal-to-interdecadal timescales, respectively. But the most significant discrepancies among them are in the long-term mean and long-term trend. For the simulations, the CMIP5 models produced a significantly smaller bias and a narrower ensemble spread of the climatology and trend in the 20th century for AAM compared to CMIP3, while CMIP3 and CMIP5 simulations consistently produced a positive trend for the 20th and 21st century. Both CMIP3 and CMIP5 models produced a wide range of the magnitudes of decadal and interdecadal variability of wind component of AAM (MR) compared to observation. The ensemble means of CMIP3 and CMIP5 are not statistically distinguishable for either the 20th- or 21st-century runs. The in-house atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) simulations forced by the sea surface temperature (SST) taken from the CMIP5 simulations as lower boundary conditions were carried out. The zonal wind and MR in the CMIP5 simulations are well simulated in the AGCM simulations. This confirmed SST as an important mediator in regulating the global atmospheric changes due to GHG effect.
ContributorsPaek, Houk (Author) / Huang, Huei-Ping (Thesis advisor) / Adrian, Ronald (Committee member) / Wang, Zhihua (Committee member) / Anderson, James (Committee member) / Herrmann, Marcus (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2013
Description
Americans spend upwards of 90% of their time indoors, hence indoor air quality (IAQ) and the impact of IAQ on human health is a major public health concern. IAQ can be negatively impacted by outdoor pollution infiltrating indoors, the emission of indoor pollutants, indoor atmospheric chemistry and poor ventilation. Energy saving measures like retrofits to seal the building envelope to prevent the leakage of heated or cooled air will impact IAQ. However, existing studies have been inconclusive as to whether increased energy efficiency is leading to detrimental IAQ. In this work, field campaigns were conducted in apartment homes in Phoenix, Arizona to evaluate IAQ as it relates to particulate matter (PM), carbonyls, and tobacco specific nitrosamines (TSNA).
To investigate the impacts of an energy efficiency retrofit on IAQ, indoor and outdoor air quality sampling was carried out at Sunnyslope Manor, a city-subsidized senior living apartment complex. Measured indoor formaldehyde levels before the building retrofit exceeded reference exposure limits, but in the long term follow-up sampling, indoor formaldehyde decreased for the entire study population by a statistically significant margin. Indoor PM levels were dominated by fine particles and showed a statistically significant decrease in the long term follow-up sampling within certain resident subpopulations (i.e. residents who reported smoking and residents who had lived longer at the apartment complex). Additionally, indoor glyoxal and methylglyoxal exceeded outdoor concentrations, with methylglyoxal being more prevalent pre-retrofit than glyoxal, suggesting different chemical pathways are involved. Indoor concentrations reported are larger than previous studies. TSNAs, specifically N'-nitrosonornicotine (NNN), 4-(methyl-nitrosamino)-4-(3-pyridyl)-butanal (NNA) and 4-(methylnitrosoamino)-1-(3-pyridyl)-1-butanone (NNK) were evaluated post-retrofit at Sunnyslope Manor. Of the units tested, 86% of the smoking units and 46% of the non-smoking units had traces of at least one of the nitrosamines.
To investigate the impacts of an energy efficiency retrofit on IAQ, indoor and outdoor air quality sampling was carried out at Sunnyslope Manor, a city-subsidized senior living apartment complex. Measured indoor formaldehyde levels before the building retrofit exceeded reference exposure limits, but in the long term follow-up sampling, indoor formaldehyde decreased for the entire study population by a statistically significant margin. Indoor PM levels were dominated by fine particles and showed a statistically significant decrease in the long term follow-up sampling within certain resident subpopulations (i.e. residents who reported smoking and residents who had lived longer at the apartment complex). Additionally, indoor glyoxal and methylglyoxal exceeded outdoor concentrations, with methylglyoxal being more prevalent pre-retrofit than glyoxal, suggesting different chemical pathways are involved. Indoor concentrations reported are larger than previous studies. TSNAs, specifically N'-nitrosonornicotine (NNN), 4-(methyl-nitrosamino)-4-(3-pyridyl)-butanal (NNA) and 4-(methylnitrosoamino)-1-(3-pyridyl)-1-butanone (NNK) were evaluated post-retrofit at Sunnyslope Manor. Of the units tested, 86% of the smoking units and 46% of the non-smoking units had traces of at least one of the nitrosamines.
ContributorsFrey, Sarah E (Author) / Herckes, Pierre (Thesis advisor) / Fraser, Matthew P (Thesis advisor) / Destaillats, Hugo (Committee member) / Chizmeshya, Andrew (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2014
Description
The role of environmental factors that influence atmospheric propagation of sound originating from freeway noise sources is studied with a combination of field experiments and numerical simulations. Acoustic propagation models are developed and adapted for refractive index depending upon meteorological conditions. A high-resolution multi-nested environmental forecasting model forced by coarse global analysis is applied to predict real meteorological profiles at fine scales. These profiles are then used as input for the acoustic models. Numerical methods for producing higher resolution acoustic refractive index fields are proposed. These include spatial and temporal nested meteorological simulations with vertical grid refinement. It is shown that vertical nesting can improve the prediction of finer structures in near-ground temperature and velocity profiles, such as morning temperature inversions and low level jet-like features. Accurate representation of these features is shown to be important for modeling sound refraction phenomena and for enabling accurate noise assessment. Comparisons are made using the acoustic model for predictions with profiles derived from meteorological simulations and from field experiment observations in Phoenix, Arizona. The challenges faced in simulating accurate meteorological profiles at high resolution for sound propagation applications are highlighted and areas for possible improvement are discussed.
A detailed evaluation of the environmental forecast is conducted by investigating the Surface Energy Balance (SEB) obtained from observations made with an eddy-covariance flux tower compared with SEB from simulations using several physical parameterizations of urban effects and planetary boundary layer schemes. Diurnal variation in SEB constituent fluxes are examined in relation to surface layer stability and modeled diagnostic variables. Improvement is found when adapting parameterizations for Phoenix with reduced errors in the SEB components. Finer model resolution (to 333 m) is seen to have insignificant ($<1\sigma$) influence on mean absolute percent difference of 30-minute diurnal mean SEB terms. A new method of representing inhomogeneous urban development density derived from observations of impervious surfaces with sub-grid scale resolution is then proposed for mesoscale applications. This method was implemented and evaluated within the environmental modeling framework. Finally, a new semi-implicit scheme based on Leapfrog and a fourth-order implicit time-filter is developed.
A detailed evaluation of the environmental forecast is conducted by investigating the Surface Energy Balance (SEB) obtained from observations made with an eddy-covariance flux tower compared with SEB from simulations using several physical parameterizations of urban effects and planetary boundary layer schemes. Diurnal variation in SEB constituent fluxes are examined in relation to surface layer stability and modeled diagnostic variables. Improvement is found when adapting parameterizations for Phoenix with reduced errors in the SEB components. Finer model resolution (to 333 m) is seen to have insignificant ($<1\sigma$) influence on mean absolute percent difference of 30-minute diurnal mean SEB terms. A new method of representing inhomogeneous urban development density derived from observations of impervious surfaces with sub-grid scale resolution is then proposed for mesoscale applications. This method was implemented and evaluated within the environmental modeling framework. Finally, a new semi-implicit scheme based on Leapfrog and a fourth-order implicit time-filter is developed.
ContributorsShaffer, Stephen R. (Author) / Moustaoui, Mohamed (Thesis advisor) / Mahalov, Alex (Committee member) / Fernando, Harindra J.S. (Committee member) / Ovenden, Nicholas C. (Committee member) / Huang, Huei-Ping (Committee member) / Calhoun, Ronald (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2014
Description
The atmosphere contains a substantial amount of water soluble organic material, yet despite years of efforts, little is known on the structure, composition and properties of this organic matter. Aqueous phase processing by fogs and clouds of the gas and particulate organic material is poorly understood despite the importance for air pollution and climate. On one hand, gas phase species can be processed by fog/cloud droplets to form lower volatility species, which upon droplet evaporation lead to new aerosol mass, while on the other hand larger nonvolatile material can be degraded by in cloud oxidation to smaller molecular weight compounds and eventually CO2.
In this work High Performance Size Exclusion Chromatography coupled with inline organic carbon detection (SEC-DOC), Diffusion-Ordered Nuclear Magnetic Resonance spectroscopy (DOSY-NMR) and Fluorescence Excitation-Emission Matrices (EEM) were used to characterize molecular weight distribution, functionality and optical properties of atmospheric organic matter. Fogs, aerosols and clouds were studied in a variety of environments including Central Valley of California (Fresno, Davis), Pennsylvania (Selinsgrove), British Columbia (Whistler) and three locations in Norway. The molecular weight distributions using SEC-DOC showed smaller molecular sizes for atmospheric organic matter compared to surface waters and a smaller material in fogs and clouds compared to aerosol particles, which is consistent with a substantial fraction of small volatile gases that partition into the aqueous phase. Both, cloud and aerosol samples presented a significant fraction (up to 21% of DOC) of biogenic nanoscale material. The results obtained by SEC-DOC were consistent with DOSY-NMR observations.
Cloud processing of organic matter has also been investigated by combining field observations (sample time series) with laboratory experiments under controlled conditions. Observations revealed no significant effect of aqueous phase chemistry on molecular weight distributions overall although during cloud events, substantial differences were apparent between organic material activated into clouds compared to interstitial material. Optical properties on the other hand showed significant changes including photobleaching and an increased humidification of atmospheric material by photochemical aging. Overall any changes to atmospheric organic matter during cloud processing were small in terms of bulk carbon properties, consistent with recent reports suggesting fogs and clouds are too dilute to substantially impact composition.
In this work High Performance Size Exclusion Chromatography coupled with inline organic carbon detection (SEC-DOC), Diffusion-Ordered Nuclear Magnetic Resonance spectroscopy (DOSY-NMR) and Fluorescence Excitation-Emission Matrices (EEM) were used to characterize molecular weight distribution, functionality and optical properties of atmospheric organic matter. Fogs, aerosols and clouds were studied in a variety of environments including Central Valley of California (Fresno, Davis), Pennsylvania (Selinsgrove), British Columbia (Whistler) and three locations in Norway. The molecular weight distributions using SEC-DOC showed smaller molecular sizes for atmospheric organic matter compared to surface waters and a smaller material in fogs and clouds compared to aerosol particles, which is consistent with a substantial fraction of small volatile gases that partition into the aqueous phase. Both, cloud and aerosol samples presented a significant fraction (up to 21% of DOC) of biogenic nanoscale material. The results obtained by SEC-DOC were consistent with DOSY-NMR observations.
Cloud processing of organic matter has also been investigated by combining field observations (sample time series) with laboratory experiments under controlled conditions. Observations revealed no significant effect of aqueous phase chemistry on molecular weight distributions overall although during cloud events, substantial differences were apparent between organic material activated into clouds compared to interstitial material. Optical properties on the other hand showed significant changes including photobleaching and an increased humidification of atmospheric material by photochemical aging. Overall any changes to atmospheric organic matter during cloud processing were small in terms of bulk carbon properties, consistent with recent reports suggesting fogs and clouds are too dilute to substantially impact composition.
ContributorsWang, Youliang (Author) / Herckes, Pierre (Thesis advisor) / Fraser, Matthew (Committee member) / Anbar, Ariel (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2014
Description
With a ground-based Doppler lidar on the upwind side of a wind farm in the Tehachapi Pass of California, radial wind velocity measurements were collected for repeating sector sweeps, scanning up to 10 kilometers away. This region consisted of complex terrain, with the scans made between mountains. The dataset was utilized for techniques being studied for short-term forecasting of wind power by correlating changes in energy content and of turbulence intensity by tracking spatial variance, in the wind ahead of a wind farm. A ramp event was also captured and its propagation was tracked.
Orthogonal horizontal wind vectors were retrieved from the radial velocity using a sector Velocity Azimuth Display method. Streamlines were plotted to determine the potential sites for a correlation of upstream wind speed with wind speed at downstream locations near the wind farm. A "virtual wind turbine" was "placed" in locations along the streamline by using the time-series velocity data at the location as the input to a modeled wind turbine, to determine the extractable energy content at that location. The relationship between this time-dependent energy content upstream and near the wind farm was studied. By correlating the energy content with each upstream location based on a time shift estimated according to advection at the mean wind speed, several fits were evaluated. A prediction of the downstream energy content was produced by shifting the power output in time and applying the best-fit function. This method made predictions of the power near the wind farm several minutes in advance. Predictions were also made up to an hour in advance for a large ramp event. The Magnitude Absolute Error and Standard Deviation are presented for the predictions based on each selected upstream location.
Orthogonal horizontal wind vectors were retrieved from the radial velocity using a sector Velocity Azimuth Display method. Streamlines were plotted to determine the potential sites for a correlation of upstream wind speed with wind speed at downstream locations near the wind farm. A "virtual wind turbine" was "placed" in locations along the streamline by using the time-series velocity data at the location as the input to a modeled wind turbine, to determine the extractable energy content at that location. The relationship between this time-dependent energy content upstream and near the wind farm was studied. By correlating the energy content with each upstream location based on a time shift estimated according to advection at the mean wind speed, several fits were evaluated. A prediction of the downstream energy content was produced by shifting the power output in time and applying the best-fit function. This method made predictions of the power near the wind farm several minutes in advance. Predictions were also made up to an hour in advance for a large ramp event. The Magnitude Absolute Error and Standard Deviation are presented for the predictions based on each selected upstream location.
ContributorsMagerman, Beth (Author) / Calhoun, Ronald (Thesis advisor) / Peet, Yulia (Committee member) / Huang, Huei-Ping (Committee member) / Krishnamurthy, Raghavendra (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2014
Description
Dust devils have proven to be commonplace on Mars, although their occurrence is unevenly distributed across the surface. They were imaged or inferred by all six successful landed spacecraft: the Viking 1 and 2 Landers (VL-1 and VL-2), Mars Pathfinder Lander, the Mars Exploration Rovers Spirit and Opportunity, and the Phoenix Mars Lander. Comparisons of dust devil parameters were based on results from optical and meteorological (MET) detection campaigns. Spatial variations were determined based on comparisons of their frequency, morphology, and behavior. The Spirit data spanning three consecutive martian years is used as the basis of comparison because it is the most extensive on this topic. Average diameters were between 8 and 115 m for all observed or detected dust devils. The average horizontal speed for all of the studies was roughly 5 m/s. At each site dust devil densities peaked between 09:00 and 17:00 LTST during the spring and summer seasons supporting insolation-driven convection as the primary formation mechanism. Seasonal number frequency averaged ~1 dust devils/ km2/sol and spanned a total of three orders of magnitude. Extrapolated number frequencies determined for optical campaigns at the Pathfinder and Spirit sites accounted for temporal and spatial inconsistencies and averaged ~19 dust devils/km2/sol. Dust fluxes calculated from Pathfinder data (5x10-4 kg/m2/s and 7x10-5 kg/m2/s) were well with in the ranges calculated from Spirit data (4.0x10-9 to 4.6x10-4 kg/m2/s for Season One, 5.2x10-7 to 6.2x10-5 kg/m2/s during Season Two, and 1.5x10-7 to 1.6x10-4 kg/m2/s during Season Three). Based on the results a campaign is written for improvements in dust devil detection at the Mars Science Laboratory's (MSL) site. Of the four remaining candidate MSL sites, the dusty plains of Gale crater may potentially be the site with the highest probability of dust devil activity.
ContributorsWaller, Devin (Author) / Greeley, Ronald (Thesis advisor) / Christensen, Philip R. (Philip Russel) (Committee member) / Cerveny, Randall (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2011