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This dissertation creates models of past potential vegetation in the Southern Levant during most of the Holocene, from the beginnings of farming through the rise of urbanized civilization (12 to 2.5 ka BP). The time scale encompasses the rise and collapse of the earliest agrarian civilizations in this region. The

This dissertation creates models of past potential vegetation in the Southern Levant during most of the Holocene, from the beginnings of farming through the rise of urbanized civilization (12 to 2.5 ka BP). The time scale encompasses the rise and collapse of the earliest agrarian civilizations in this region. The archaeological record suggests that increases in social complexity were linked to climatic episodes (e.g., favorable climatic conditions coincide with intervals of prosperity or marked social development such as the Neolithic Revolution ca. 11.5 ka BP, the Secondary Products Revolution ca. 6 ka BP, and the Middle Bronze Age ca. 4 ka BP). The opposite can be said about periods of climatic deterioration, when settled villages were abandoned as the inhabitants returned to nomadic or semi nomadic lifestyles (e.g., abandonment of the largest Neolithic farming towns after 8 ka BP and collapse of Bronze Age towns and cities after 3.5 ka BP during the Late Bronze Age). This study develops chronologically refined models of past vegetation from 12 to 2.5 ka BP, at 500 year intervals, using GIS, remote sensing and statistical modeling tools (MAXENT) that derive from species distribution modeling. Plants are sensitive to alterations in their environment and respond accordingly. Because of this, they are valuable indicators of landscape change. An extensive database of historical and field gathered observations was created. Using this database as well as environmental variables that include temperature and precipitation surfaces for the whole study period (also at 500 year intervals), the potential vegetation of the region was modeled. Through this means, a continuous chronology of potential vegetation of the Southern Levantwas built. The produced paleo-vegetation models generally agree with the proxy records. They indicate a gradual decline of forests and expansion of steppe and desert throughout the Holocene, interrupted briefly during the Mid Holocene (ca. 4 ka BP, Middle Bronze Age). They also suggest that during the Early Holocene, forest areas were extensive, spreading into the Northern Negev. The two remaining forested areas in the Northern and Southern Plateau Region in Jordan were also connected during this time. The models also show general agreement with the major cultural developments, with forested areas either expanding or remaining stable during prosperous periods (e.g., Pre Pottery Neolithic and Middle Bronze Age), and significantly contracting during moments of instability (e.g., Late Bronze Age).
ContributorsSoto-Berelov, Mariela (Author) / Fall, Patricia L. (Thesis advisor) / Myint, Soe (Committee member) / Turner, Billie L (Committee member) / Falconer, Steven (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2011
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Description
Safe, readily available, and reliable sources of water are an essential component of any municipality’s infrastructure. Phoenix, Arizona, a southwestern city, has among the highest per capita water use in the United States, making it essential to carefully manage its reservoirs. Generally, municipal water bodies are monitored through field sampling.

Safe, readily available, and reliable sources of water are an essential component of any municipality’s infrastructure. Phoenix, Arizona, a southwestern city, has among the highest per capita water use in the United States, making it essential to carefully manage its reservoirs. Generally, municipal water bodies are monitored through field sampling. However, this approach is limited spatially and temporally in addition to being costly. In this study, the application of remotely sensed reflectance data from Landsat 7’s Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus (ETM+) and Landsat 8’s Operational Land Imager (OLI) along with data generated through field-sampling is used to gain a better understanding of the seasonal development of algal communities and levels of suspended particulates in the three main terminal reservoirs supplying water to the Phoenix metro area: Bartlett Lake, Lake Pleasant, and Saguaro Lake. Algal abundances, particularly the abundance of filamentous cyanobacteria, increased with warmer temperatures in all three reservoirs and reached the highest comparative abundance in Bartlett Lake. Prymnesiophytes (the class of algae to which the toxin-producing golden algae belong) tended to peak between June and August, with one notable peak occurring in Saguaro Lake in August 2017 during which time a fish-kill was observed. In the cooler months algal abundance was comparatively lower in all three lakes, with a more even distribution of abundance across algae classes. In-situ data from March 2017 to March 2018 were compared with algal communities sampled approximately ten years ago in each reservoir to understand any possible long-term changes. The findings show that the algal communities in the reservoirs are relatively stable, particularly those of the filamentous cyanobacteria, chlorophytes, and prymnesiophytes with some notable exceptions, such as the abundance of diatoms, which increased in Bartlett Lake and Lake Pleasant. When in-situ data were compared with Landsat-derived reflectance data, two-band combinations were found to be the best-estimators of chlorophyll-a concentration (as a proxy for algal biomass) and total suspended sediment concentration. The ratio of the reflectance value of the red band and the blue band produced reasonable estimates for the in-situ parameters in Bartlett Lake. The ratio of the reflectance value of the green band and the blue band produced reasonable estimates for the in-situ parameters in Saguaro Lake. However, even the best performing two-band algorithm did not produce any significant correlation between reflectance and in-situ data in Lake Pleasant. Overall, remotely-sensed observations can significantly improve our understanding of the water quality as measured by algae abundance and particulate loading in Arizona Reservoirs, especially when applied over long timescales.
ContributorsRussell, Jazmine Barkley (Author) / Neuer, Susanne (Thesis advisor) / Fox, Peter (Committee member) / Myint, Soe (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2018
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Description
The combination of rapid urban growth and climate change places stringent constraints on multisector sustainability of cities. Green infrastructure provides a great potential for mitigating anthropogenic-induced urban environmental problems; nevertheless, studies at city and regional scales are inhibited by the deficiency in modelling the complex transport coupled water and energy

The combination of rapid urban growth and climate change places stringent constraints on multisector sustainability of cities. Green infrastructure provides a great potential for mitigating anthropogenic-induced urban environmental problems; nevertheless, studies at city and regional scales are inhibited by the deficiency in modelling the complex transport coupled water and energy inside urban canopies. This dissertation is devoted to incorporating hydrological processes and urban green infrastructure into an integrated atmosphere-urban modelling system, with the goal to improve the reliability and predictability of existing numerical tools. Based on the enhanced numerical tool, the effects of urban green infrastructure on environmental sustainability of cities are examined.

Findings indicate that the deployment of green roofs will cool the urban environment in daytime and warm it at night, via evapotranspiration and soil insulation. At the annual scale, green roofs are effective in decreasing building energy demands for both summer cooling and winter heating. For cities in arid and semiarid environments, an optimal trade-off between water and energy resources can be achieved via innovative design of smart urban irrigation schemes, enabled by meticulous analysis of the water-energy nexus. Using water-saving plants alleviates water shortage induced by population growth, but comes at the price of an exacerbated urban thermal environment. Realizing the potential water buffering capacity of urban green infrastructure is crucial for the long-term water sustainability and subsequently multisector sustainability of cities. Environmental performance of urban green infrastructure is determined by land-atmosphere interactions, geographic and meteorological conditions, and hence it is recommended that analysis should be conducted on a city-by-city basis before actual implementation of green infrastructure.
ContributorsYang, Jiachuan (Author) / Wang, Zhihua (Thesis advisor) / Kaloush, Kamil (Committee member) / Myint, Soe (Committee member) / Huang, Huei-Ping (Committee member) / Mascaro, Giuseppe (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2016
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Description

Problem: The prospect that urban heat island (UHI) effects and climate change may increase urban temperatures is a problem for cities that actively promote urban redevelopment and higher densities. One possible UHI mitigation strategy is to plant more trees and other irrigated vegetation to prevent daytime heat storage and facilitate

Problem: The prospect that urban heat island (UHI) effects and climate change may increase urban temperatures is a problem for cities that actively promote urban redevelopment and higher densities. One possible UHI mitigation strategy is to plant more trees and other irrigated vegetation to prevent daytime heat storage and facilitate nighttime cooling, but this requires water resources that are limited in a desert city like Phoenix.

Purpose: We investigated the tradeoffs between water use and nighttime cooling inherent in urban form and land use choices.

Methods: We used a Local-Scale Urban Meteorological Parameterization Scheme (LUMPS) model to examine the variation in temperature and evaporation in 10 census tracts in Phoenix's urban core. After validating results with estimates of outdoor water use based on tract-level city water records and satellite imagery, we used the model to simulate the temperature and water use consequences of implementing three different scenarios.

Results and conclusions: We found that increasing irrigated landscaping lowers nighttime temperatures, but this relationship is not linear; the greatest reductions occur in the least vegetated neighborhoods. A ratio of the change in water use to temperature impact reached a threshold beyond which increased outdoor water use did little to ameliorate UHI effects.

Takeaway for practice: There is no one design and landscape plan capable of addressing increasing UHI and climate effects everywhere. Any one strategy will have inconsistent results if applied across all urban landscape features and may lead to an inefficient allocation of scarce water resources.

Research Support: This work was supported by the National Science Foundation (NSF) under Grant SES-0345945 (Decision Center for a Desert City) and by the City of Phoenix Water Services Department. Any opinions, findings, and conclusions or recommendations expressed in this material are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of NSF.

ContributorsGober, Patricia (Author) / Brazel, Anthony J. (Author) / Quay, Ray (Author) / Myint, Soe (Author) / Grossman-Clarke, Susanne (Author) / Miller, Adam (Author) / Rossi, Steve (Author)
Created2010-01-04
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Description

This study addresses a classic sustainability challenge—the tradeoff between water conservation and temperature amelioration in rapidly growing cities, using Phoenix, Arizona and Portland, Oregon as case studies. An urban energy balance model— LUMPS (Local-Scale Urban Meteorological Parameterization Scheme)—is used to represent the tradeoff between outdoor water use and nighttime cooling

This study addresses a classic sustainability challenge—the tradeoff between water conservation and temperature amelioration in rapidly growing cities, using Phoenix, Arizona and Portland, Oregon as case studies. An urban energy balance model— LUMPS (Local-Scale Urban Meteorological Parameterization Scheme)—is used to represent the tradeoff between outdoor water use and nighttime cooling during hot, dry summer months. Tradeoffs were characterized under three scenarios of land use change and three climate-change assumptions. Decreasing vegetation density reduced outdoor water use but sacrificed nighttime cooling. Increasing vegetated surfaces accelerated nighttime cooling, but increased outdoor water use by ~20%. Replacing impervious surfaces with buildings achieved similar improvements in nighttime cooling with minimal increases in outdoor water use; it was the most water-efficient cooling strategy. The fact that nighttime cooling rates and outdoor water use were more sensitive to land use scenarios than climate-change simulations suggested that cities can adapt to a warmer climate by manipulating land use.

ContributorsGober, Patricia (Author) / Middel, Ariane (Author) / Brazel, Anthony J. (Author) / Myint, Soe (Author) / Chang, Heejun (Author) / Duh, Jiunn-Der (Author) / House-Peters, Lily (Author)
Created2013-05-16
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Description
This study uses the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to simulate and predict the changes in local climate attributed to the urbanization for five desert cities. The simulations are performed in the fashion of climate downscaling, constrained by the surface boundary conditions generated from high resolution land-use maps. For

This study uses the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to simulate and predict the changes in local climate attributed to the urbanization for five desert cities. The simulations are performed in the fashion of climate downscaling, constrained by the surface boundary conditions generated from high resolution land-use maps. For each city, the land-use maps of 1985 and 2010 from Landsat satellite observation, and a projected land-use map for 2030, are used to represent the past, present, and future. An additional set of simulations for Las Vegas, the largest of the five cities, uses the NLCD 1992 and 2006 land-use maps and an idealized historical land-use map with no urban coverage for 1900.

The study finds that urbanization in Las Vegas produces a classic urban heat island (UHI) at night but a minor cooling during the day. A further analysis of the surface energy balance shows that the decrease in surface Albedo and increase effective emissivity play an important role in shaping the local climate change over urban areas. The emerging urban structures slow down the diurnal wind circulation over the city due to an increased effective surface roughness. This leads to a secondary modification of temperature due to the interaction between the mechanical and thermodynamic effects of urbanization.

The simulations for the five desert cities for 1985 and 2010 further confirm a common pattern of the climatic effect of urbanization with significant nighttime warming and moderate daytime cooling. This effect is confined to the urban area and is not sensitive to the size of the city or the detail of land cover in the surrounding areas. The pattern of nighttime warming and daytime cooling remains robust in the simulations for the future climate of the five cities using the projected 2030 land-use maps. Inter-city differences among the five urban areas are discussed.
ContributorsKamal, Samy (Author) / Huang, Huei-Ping (Thesis advisor) / Anderson, James (Thesis advisor) / Herrmann, Marcus (Committee member) / Calhoun, Ronald (Committee member) / Myint, Soe (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2015