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Description
This study performs numerical modeling for the climate of semi-arid regions by running a high-resolution atmospheric model constrained by large-scale climatic boundary conditions, a practice commonly called climate downscaling. These investigations focus especially on precipitation and temperature, quantities that are critical to life in semi-arid regions. Using the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model, a non-hydrostatic geophysical fluid dynamical model with a full suite of physical parameterization, a series of numerical sensitivity experiments are conducted to test how the intensity and spatial/temporal distribution of precipitation change with grid resolution, time step size, the resolution of lower boundary topography and surface characteristics. Two regions, Arizona in U.S. and Aral Sea region in Central Asia, are chosen as the test-beds for the numerical experiments: The former for its complex terrain and the latter for the dramatic man-made changes in its lower boundary conditions (the shrinkage of Aral Sea). Sensitivity tests show that the parameterization schemes for rainfall are not resolution-independent, thus a refinement of resolution is no guarantee of a better result. But, simulations (at all resolutions) do capture the inter-annual variability of rainfall over Arizona. Nevertheless, temperature is simulated more accurately with refinement in resolution. Results show that both seasonal mean rainfall and frequency of extreme rainfall events increase with resolution. For Aral Sea, sensitivity tests indicate that while the shrinkage of Aral Sea has a dramatic impact on the precipitation over the confine of (former) Aral Sea itself, its effect on the precipitation over greater Central Asia is not necessarily greater than the inter-annual variability induced by the lateral boundary conditions in the model and large scale warming in the region. The numerical simulations in the study are cross validated with observations to address the realism of the regional climate model. The findings of this sensitivity study are useful for water resource management in semi-arid regions. Such high spatio-temporal resolution gridded-data can be used as an input for hydrological models for regions such as Arizona with complex terrain and sparse observations. Results from simulations of Aral Sea region are expected to contribute to ecosystems management for Central Asia.
ContributorsSharma, Ashish (Author) / Huang, Huei-Ping (Thesis advisor) / Adrian, Ronald (Committee member) / Herrmann, Marcus (Committee member) / Phelan, Patrick E. (Committee member) / Vivoni, Enrique (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2012
Description
Four Souvenirs for Violin and Piano was composed by Paul Schoenfeld (b.1947) in 1990 as a showpiece, spotlighting the virtuosity of both the violin and piano in equal measure. Each movement is a modern interpretation of a folk or popular genre, re- envisioned over intricate jazz harmonies and rhythms. The work was commissioned by violinist Lev Polyakin, who specifically requested some short pieces that could be performed in a local jazz establishment named Night Town in Cleveland, Ohio. The result is a work that is approximately fifteen minutes in length. Schoenfeld is a respected composer in the contemporary classical music community, whose Café Music (1986) for piano trio has recently become a staple of the standard chamber music repertoire. Many of his other works, however, remain in relative obscurity. It is the focus of this document to shed light on at least one other notable composition; Four Souvenirs for Violin and Piano. Among the topics to be discussed regarding this piece are a brief history behind the genesis of this composition, a structural summary of the entire work and each of its movements, and an appended practice guide based on interview and coaching sessions with the composer himself. With this project, I hope to provide a better understanding and appreciation of this work.
ContributorsJanczyk, Kristie Annette (Author) / Ryan, Russell (Thesis advisor) / Campbell, Andrew (Committee member) / Norton, Kay (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2015
Description
Earth-system models describe the interacting components of the climate system and
technological systems that affect society, such as communication infrastructures. Data
assimilation addresses the challenge of state specification by incorporating system
observations into the model estimates. In this research, a particular data
assimilation technique called the Local Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter (LETKF) is
applied to the ionosphere, which is a domain of practical interest due to its effects
on infrastructures that depend on satellite communication and remote sensing. This
dissertation consists of three main studies that propose strategies to improve space-
weather specification during ionospheric extreme events, but are generally applicable
to Earth-system models:
Topic I applies the LETKF to estimate ion density with an idealized model of
the ionosphere, given noisy synthetic observations of varying sparsity. Results show
that the LETKF yields accurate estimates of the ion density field and unobserved
components of neutral winds even when the observation density is spatially sparse
(2% of grid points) and there is large levels (40%) of Gaussian observation noise.
Topic II proposes a targeted observing strategy for data assimilation, which uses
the influence matrix diagnostic to target errors in chosen state variables. This
strategy is applied in observing system experiments, in which synthetic electron density
observations are assimilated with the LETKF into the Thermosphere-Ionosphere-
Electrodynamics Global Circulation Model (TIEGCM) during a geomagnetic storm.
Results show that assimilating targeted electron density observations yields on
average about 60%–80% reduction in electron density error within a 600 km radius of
the observed location, compared to 15% reduction obtained with randomly placed
vertical profiles.
Topic III proposes a methodology to account for systematic model bias arising
ifrom errors in parametrized solar and magnetospheric inputs. This strategy is ap-
plied with the TIEGCM during a geomagnetic storm, and is used to estimate the
spatiotemporal variations of bias in electron density predictions during the
transitionary phases of the geomagnetic storm. Results show that this strategy reduces
error in 1-hour predictions of electron density by about 35% and 30% in polar regions
during the main and relaxation phases of the geomagnetic storm, respectively.
technological systems that affect society, such as communication infrastructures. Data
assimilation addresses the challenge of state specification by incorporating system
observations into the model estimates. In this research, a particular data
assimilation technique called the Local Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter (LETKF) is
applied to the ionosphere, which is a domain of practical interest due to its effects
on infrastructures that depend on satellite communication and remote sensing. This
dissertation consists of three main studies that propose strategies to improve space-
weather specification during ionospheric extreme events, but are generally applicable
to Earth-system models:
Topic I applies the LETKF to estimate ion density with an idealized model of
the ionosphere, given noisy synthetic observations of varying sparsity. Results show
that the LETKF yields accurate estimates of the ion density field and unobserved
components of neutral winds even when the observation density is spatially sparse
(2% of grid points) and there is large levels (40%) of Gaussian observation noise.
Topic II proposes a targeted observing strategy for data assimilation, which uses
the influence matrix diagnostic to target errors in chosen state variables. This
strategy is applied in observing system experiments, in which synthetic electron density
observations are assimilated with the LETKF into the Thermosphere-Ionosphere-
Electrodynamics Global Circulation Model (TIEGCM) during a geomagnetic storm.
Results show that assimilating targeted electron density observations yields on
average about 60%–80% reduction in electron density error within a 600 km radius of
the observed location, compared to 15% reduction obtained with randomly placed
vertical profiles.
Topic III proposes a methodology to account for systematic model bias arising
ifrom errors in parametrized solar and magnetospheric inputs. This strategy is ap-
plied with the TIEGCM during a geomagnetic storm, and is used to estimate the
spatiotemporal variations of bias in electron density predictions during the
transitionary phases of the geomagnetic storm. Results show that this strategy reduces
error in 1-hour predictions of electron density by about 35% and 30% in polar regions
during the main and relaxation phases of the geomagnetic storm, respectively.
ContributorsDurazo, Juan, Ph.D (Author) / Kostelich, Eric J. (Thesis advisor) / Mahalov, Alex (Thesis advisor) / Tang, Wenbo (Committee member) / Moustaoui, Mohamed (Committee member) / Platte, Rodrigo (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2018
Description
Samuel Máynez Prince (1886-1966), was a prolific and important Mexican musician. Prince’s musical style followed the trends of the nineteenth-century salon music genre. His compositions include lullabies, songs, dances, marches, mazurkas, waltzes, and revolutionary anthems. Prince’s social status and performances in the famed Café Colón in Mexico City increased his popularity among high-ranking political figures during the time of the Mexican Revolution as well as his status in the Mexican music scene.
Unfortunately there is virtually no existing scholarship on Prince and even basic information regarding his life and works is not readily available. The lack of organization of the manuscript scores and the absence of dates of his works has further pushed the composer into obscurity. An investigation therefore was necessary in order to explore the neglected aspects of the life and works of Prince as a violinist and composer. This document is the result of such an investigation by including extensive new biographical information, as well as the first musical analysis and edition of the complete recovered works for violin and piano.
In order to fill the gaps present in the limited biographical information regarding Prince’s life, investigative research was conducted in Mexico City. Information was drawn from archives of the composer’s grandchildren, the Palacio de Bellas Artes, the Conservatorio Nacional de Música de México, and the Orquesta Sinfónica Nacional. The surviving relatives provided first-hand details on events in the composer’s life; one also offered the researcher access to their personal archive including, important life documents, photographs, programs from concert performances, and manuscript scores of the compositions. Establishing connections with the relatives also led the researcher to examining the violins owned and used by the late violinist/composer.
This oral history approach led to new and updated information, including the revival of previously unpublished music for violin and piano. These works are here compiled in an edition that will give students, teachers, and music-lovers access to this unknown repertoire. Finally, this research seeks to promote the beauty and nuances of Mexican salon music, and the complete works for violin and piano of Samuel Máynez Prince in particular.
Unfortunately there is virtually no existing scholarship on Prince and even basic information regarding his life and works is not readily available. The lack of organization of the manuscript scores and the absence of dates of his works has further pushed the composer into obscurity. An investigation therefore was necessary in order to explore the neglected aspects of the life and works of Prince as a violinist and composer. This document is the result of such an investigation by including extensive new biographical information, as well as the first musical analysis and edition of the complete recovered works for violin and piano.
In order to fill the gaps present in the limited biographical information regarding Prince’s life, investigative research was conducted in Mexico City. Information was drawn from archives of the composer’s grandchildren, the Palacio de Bellas Artes, the Conservatorio Nacional de Música de México, and the Orquesta Sinfónica Nacional. The surviving relatives provided first-hand details on events in the composer’s life; one also offered the researcher access to their personal archive including, important life documents, photographs, programs from concert performances, and manuscript scores of the compositions. Establishing connections with the relatives also led the researcher to examining the violins owned and used by the late violinist/composer.
This oral history approach led to new and updated information, including the revival of previously unpublished music for violin and piano. These works are here compiled in an edition that will give students, teachers, and music-lovers access to this unknown repertoire. Finally, this research seeks to promote the beauty and nuances of Mexican salon music, and the complete works for violin and piano of Samuel Máynez Prince in particular.
ContributorsEkenes, Spencer Arvin (Author) / McLin, Katherine (Thesis advisor) / Feisst, Sabine (Committee member) / Jiang, Danwen (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2016
Description
This dissertation consists of three essays, each examining distinct aspects about public organization adaptation to extreme events using evidence from public transit agencies under the influence of extreme weather in the United States (U.S.). The first essay focuses on predicting organizational adaptive behavior. Building on extant theories on adaptation and organizational learning, it develops a theoretical framework to uncover the pathways through which extreme events impact public organizations and identify the key learning mechanisms involved in adaptation. Using a structural equation model on data from a 2016 national survey, the study highlights the critical role of risk perception to translate signals from the external environment to organizational adaptive behavior.
The second essay expands on the first one to incorporate the organizational environment and model the adaptive system. Combining an agent-based model and qualitative interviews with key decision makers, the study investigates how adaptation occurs over time in multiplex contexts consisting of the natural hazards, organizations, institutions and social networks. The study ends with a series of refined propositions about the mechanisms involved in public organization adaptation. Specifically, the analysis suggests that risk perception needs to be examined relative to risk tolerance to determine organizational motivation to adapt, and underscore the criticality of coupling between the motivation and opportunities to enable adaptation. The results further show that the coupling can be enhanced through lowering organizational risk perception decay or synchronizing opportunities with extreme event occurrences to promote adaptation.
The third essay shifts the gaze from adaptation mechanisms to organizational outcomes. It uses a stochastic frontier analysis to quantify the impacts of extreme events on public organization performance and, importantly, the role of organizational adaptive capacity in moderating the impacts. The findings confirm that extreme events negatively affect organizational performance and that organizations with higher adaptive capacity are more able to mitigate those effects, thereby lending support to research efforts in the first two essays dedicated to identifying preconditions and mechanisms involved in the adaptation process. Taken together, this dissertation comprehensively advances understanding about public organization adaptation to extreme events.
The second essay expands on the first one to incorporate the organizational environment and model the adaptive system. Combining an agent-based model and qualitative interviews with key decision makers, the study investigates how adaptation occurs over time in multiplex contexts consisting of the natural hazards, organizations, institutions and social networks. The study ends with a series of refined propositions about the mechanisms involved in public organization adaptation. Specifically, the analysis suggests that risk perception needs to be examined relative to risk tolerance to determine organizational motivation to adapt, and underscore the criticality of coupling between the motivation and opportunities to enable adaptation. The results further show that the coupling can be enhanced through lowering organizational risk perception decay or synchronizing opportunities with extreme event occurrences to promote adaptation.
The third essay shifts the gaze from adaptation mechanisms to organizational outcomes. It uses a stochastic frontier analysis to quantify the impacts of extreme events on public organization performance and, importantly, the role of organizational adaptive capacity in moderating the impacts. The findings confirm that extreme events negatively affect organizational performance and that organizations with higher adaptive capacity are more able to mitigate those effects, thereby lending support to research efforts in the first two essays dedicated to identifying preconditions and mechanisms involved in the adaptation process. Taken together, this dissertation comprehensively advances understanding about public organization adaptation to extreme events.
ContributorsZhang, Fengxiu (Author) / Welch, Eric (Thesis advisor) / Barton, Michael (Committee member) / Bretschneider, Stuart (Committee member) / Feeney, Mary K. (Committee member) / Maroulis, Spiro (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2020