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The: behavior study on individual investors in China's bond market

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During the past decade, the Chinese bond market has been rapidly developing. The percentage of bond to total social funding is constantly increasing. The structure and behavior of investors are crucial to the construction of China’s bond market. Due to

During the past decade, the Chinese bond market has been rapidly developing. The percentage of bond to total social funding is constantly increasing. The structure and behavior of investors are crucial to the construction of China’s bond market. Due to specific credit risks, bond market regulation usually involves in rules to control investor adequancy. It is heatedly discussed among academia and regulators about whether individual investors are adequate to directly participate in bond trading. This paper focuses on the comparison between individual and institutional bond investors, especially their returns and risks. Based on the comparison, this paper provides constructive suggestions for China’s bond market development and the bond market investor structure.

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2016

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An Empirical Study on the Short-run Performance before and after the Unlock of Private Placement Stocks in the A-share Market

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Private placement is an important financing tool for listed companies in China, and the lock-up arrangement is its supporting system. The Efficient Market Hypothesis suggests that, if investor expectations are unbiased, there will be no abnormal fluctuations in the stock

Private placement is an important financing tool for listed companies in China, and the lock-up arrangement is its supporting system. The Efficient Market Hypothesis suggests that, if investor expectations are unbiased, there will be no abnormal fluctuations in the stock prices of listed companies before and after the unlocking day. However, around the time of the unlocking of private placement shares, the stock prices generally show a V-shaped pattern.

Through the empirical analysis of the Chinese A-share stocks from May 8th,2006 to December 31st, 2016, I found that from the 40th day before the unlocking day to the 90th day after, the stock price showed an evident first-downward-then upward trend. The lowest price appeared near the unlocking day. Meanwhile, the greater stocks fall before the unlocking day, the greater prices rise after that. The characteristics of the distinctive difference between the stock prices before and after the unlocking day can provide investment opportunities.

By reviewing research on investor behavior, this paper suggests that the V-shaped pattern can be explained by the influence of investors’ psychological factors on their trading behavior. The general performance of the stocks before the unlocking day is negative due to the increasing uncertainty perceived by investors. After the unlocking day, the uncertainty gradually disappears and the stock rebounds. In addition, I found that stock returns during the lock-up period, shareholder background, and the length of lock-up period also had significant impacts on the V-shaped price trend.

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Date Created
2018

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法律职业全球化:国际经验对中国政策的启示

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法律职业全球化作为经济全球化的必然产物,在近二十年来不断受到法律职业社会学者的广泛关注及探讨。中国改革开放四十年中国法律职业得以蓬勃发展,却很少学者研究探讨中国法律职业全球化。在中国企业“走出去”和“一带一路”倡议的背景下,新技术创新特别是人工智能、大数据等浪潮不断冲击着法律职业,给中国法律职业全球化发展带来机遇和挑战。本文拟阐述法律职业发展及其全球化理论,并以比较法视角探索研究不同司法管辖区如美国、英国以及印度等国法律职业全球化经验和启示,考察现有国际律师事务所以及“四大”法律服务全球化的发展历程,并且探新技术的创新是如何改变法律职业、重塑全球法律服务业的格局,通过分析和借鉴法律职业的国际经验、经济学原理和变革趋势探讨中国法律职业改革开放及全球化的模式和路径,并提出相关政策建议

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2019

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我国建筑行业高管激励与企业企业绩效的关系研究 ——基于中国上市建筑业企业数据

Description

在现代企业的运营过程中,构建高效的高管激励机制已经成为提高公司治理水平的关键。但对于我国建筑行业上市公司而言,由于受到宏观经济、政策环境特别是行业性质等内外部因素影响,建筑业企业高管激励与企业绩效传导机制有其特殊性,其有效性还有待检验。从现有研究文献分析看,总体上高管激励机制与公司业绩关系的研究结果并不一致,就建筑行业而言,还鲜有实证研究文献。本文以我国建筑业上市公司为研究对象,对建筑行行业高管激励机制与公司绩效的相关性展开实证研究,具有理论价值与实践意义。

本文依据“规范研究-实证检验-对策分析”的研究路径,主要可以分为三大部分:首先,通过规范性研究,文章梳理了相关理论基础与研究成果,揭示了当前我国建筑行业上市公司高管激励机制的建设水平,构建了高管激励与公司业绩关系研究的理论框架。其次,实证研究方面,文章运用我国110家A股建筑上市公司2013-2018年相关数据进行了描述性统计、相关性检验与多元回归分析。研究结果发现,我国高管短期薪酬激励与企业绩效正相关;建筑企业的高管长期持股激励机制不健全;短期薪酬激励对企业绩效的正影响在国有控股企业比在非国有控股企业更强;短期薪酬激励对企业绩效的正影响在大型企业比在中小型企业更强。实证检验结果与理论假设并不完全一致,可见我国建筑上市公司的高管激励机制尚不能够充分发挥作用;最后,综合考虑理论分析与实证检验的结果,为提高公司业绩,剔除实际控制人,本文认为我国建筑企业应该坚定高管激励可以提高企业绩效的认识,但针对不同业务类型、产权性质和生命周期中不能一概而论,应结合企业实际情况应该采取不同的激励方式。

关键词:高管激励;企业绩效;建筑行业;上市企业;含金量

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Date Created
2020

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A Strategic Management Perspective of Fund Family Competition: Theories and Evidence from America and China

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Since the 2008 financial crisis, the total assets managed by U.S. mutual funds have frequently hit new highs and the industry has become increasingly concentrated. In the meantime, two strategies have emerged in the American mutual fund industry: active and

Since the 2008 financial crisis, the total assets managed by U.S. mutual funds have frequently hit new highs and the industry has become increasingly concentrated. In the meantime, two strategies have emerged in the American mutual fund industry: active and passive management. What factors affect the market shares of firms that adopted these two different strategies?

Building on strategic management theories, I suggest that mutual fund families that adopted active and passive management strategies tend to compete in different dimensions. Active management fund families tend to implement the product differentiation strategy, competing on “product quality” through excess-returns, innovative and differentiated fund products; passively managed fund families focus more on "price competition" by conducting an overall cost leadership strategy.

This research examines the driven factors of fund families’ market share. The results show that: the market share of actively managed fund families is more sensitive to positive impact of fund performance, while passive management firms are more sensitive to negative effect of management fees and total loads; 12b-1 expense improves the competitiveness of active fund families and thus enhance their market shares but it has negative impact on passive fund families. In addition, high turnover decreases the market share of all fund families, especially for passively managed families. The outcome reveals the latest US mutual industry orientation: products differentiation, turnover, management fee have greater impact on market share while the competition of fund performance is diminishing. The Matthew effect in US mutual fund industry is outstanding. Industrial competition dimension expands from performance and products to cost cutting.

Empirical analysis on Chinese mutual fund families is also conducted. Different from the US, there is only small number of mutual fund families targeting passive management products. The results show that the distribution channel has the largest impact on Chinese mutual fund family market share and investors are more willing to chase performance than to consider cost-efficient fund families. This study then analyses reasons behind the difference of Chinese and American mutual fund industries.

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Date Created
2018

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The Impacts of Margin Trading on Rate of Return and Volatility in the Stock Market: A Study using the SVAR Model and Panel Regressions

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Although margin trading has significant impacts on the stock market, extant research has mainly focused on its effect on stock price volatility and has rarely examined its influence on the rate of returns. In addition, little systematic research has examined

Although margin trading has significant impacts on the stock market, extant research has mainly focused on its effect on stock price volatility and has rarely examined its influence on the rate of returns. In addition, little systematic research has examined the differential effects of margin trading under different circumstances. This thesis examines the effects of margin trading in bull market, bear market, balanced market and among stocks included in main board, SMEs(small and medium-sized enterprises) board, GEM(growth enterprises board), as well as large-cap and small-cap in China. I further studied the long-, medium-, and short-term influences of margin trading on the volatility of stock price, return rate, and liquidity of the market by both using the SVAR model and conducting panel data analyses.

The findings show that: a)Volatility. Margin trading can effectively curtail the medium- and short-term volatility of the share price under any market condition but has no prominent influence on long-term volatility. b)Profitability. Margin trading enhances profitability in the bull market with an apparent leverage effect while having no significant effects on short-term profitability in the balanced market and the bear market. c) Individual shares with different attributes. The influences of margin trading on the large-cap and small-cap shares, shares with high vs. low PE ratio, shares included in the main board and SMEs stocks vary in different types of market. d) Liquidity. The influences of margin trading on the fluidity of market are significantly different in the bull, bear, and balanced markets.

Finally, I set up a new trading strategy based on the above conclusions. The result from hypothetical trading demonstrates that the newly-created trading strategy works better than the long-term holding strategy, highlighting the practical implications of this thesis in addition to its implications for research

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Date Created
2018

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公司投融资期限错配、公司债信用利差与公司债投资

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期限错配策略利用滚动短期融资支持长期投资,滚动短期融资本身极易导致资金链紧张,产生流动性风险。利用手工收集的2006-2018年A股上市公司独特数据,本文系统考察了企业投融资期限错配对发行信用债信用利差的影响。本文发现,期限错配越严重的企业,越有可能在发行信用债时被要求更高的信用利差,对于民营上市公司发行信用债尤其如此;利用再融资环境和“钱荒”事件进行的作用机制检验表明,企业投融资期限错配对发行信用债利差的影响主要是因为期限错配蕴含着较高的流动性风险; 利用工具变量、双重差分法和替代性度量等一系列稳健性检验仍能得出一致结论。再者,利用2006-2018 年我国开放式基金年度持股数据,从基金投资组合与持仓调整两个角度,实证检验了期限错配行为对于基金投资行为的影响。研究发现,期限错配产生的财务风险会降低基金对期限错配上市公司发行信用债的投资规模;且在实施期限错配当年,基金对持有的该上市公司的信用债更可能进行减持,由此表明期限错配会影响基金投资策略的形成。进一步的分析显示,基金所在基金管理公司为中外合资时,上述基金投资行为更加明显;同时,当基金持有民营上市公司以及处于紧缩性货币政策环境时,期限错配对于基金投资行为的影响更大。
最后,本文考察了期限错配下基金投资信用债的经济后果,分别从基金业绩、基金收益波动率和基金流量这三个维度进行了检验。实证结果显示,在控制其他可能影响基金收益及收益波动率的因素后,对期限错配上市公司信用债持有比重越小及减持比例越大的基金,当年业绩越好,且收益的波动率越低。再次,对于基金投资者,本文利用净申购率作为基金流量的代理变量,检验发现,基金投资者更热忠于追逐采取减少持有期限错配上市公司信用债这一投资策略的基金,表现为这类基金有更多的资金净流入,而且,相对于个人投资者,上述基金投资者的投资偏好在我国的机构投资者中表现得更加明显。

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2021

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从资源配置角度研究中国商品期货市场有效性

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中国商品期货市场经历30年发展,已初备协调资源分配、对冲经营风险的功能。但受产业自身和期货市场发展的制约,各期货品种市场有效性参差不齐。随着我国经济从增量阶段过渡到存量阶段,期货作为企业的价格管理和风险控制工具的重要性日益凸显,因此研究我国商品期货市场有效性具有非常好的现实意义。

本文开创性的从期货的基本功能——资源配置的角度出发,提出有效市场是指其期货价格能够对本行业社会资源起到合理的调配作用的市场。在内容安排上,本文首先总结了现有国际成熟期货品种的特点并找出能够反映期货对资源配置能力的四个指标假说,分别为期现回归性、利润波动性、库存波动性以及现金流变化,然后通过数学模型证明指标数据和品种成熟度的关联,最后应用该套指标对我国商品市场有效性进行检验。数学方法上,本文先采用Bai-Perron内生多重结构突变模型对时间序列进行突变点检验,然后对断点时间序列分别进行多元回归,并在剔除季节性和周期性后,通过平稳性检验、ARCH效应检验结果来确定相应的Garch模型,并用Garch模型来描述时间序列的波动性。

通过数学验证,我们认为期现回归性、利润波动性、库存波动性以及现金流变化这四个指标可以作为反映期货成熟度的检验指标,用该套方法对国内部分活跃品种检验后发现大连豆粕期货已经具备成熟品种的特征,本文认为豆粕期货市场是有效的;PTA、玉米淀粉期货的四个检验指标在近年来表现出时间序列优化的特点,但因时间较短尚不稳定,可以认为是接近成熟的品种;而螺纹钢和铝期货在多数指标上表现不佳,表明他们对社会资源配置能力较差,因此本文认为螺纹钢和铝期货市场是活跃但非有效的。通过进一步分析,本文认为品种的期现回归性差是制约其资源配置能力发挥的关键因素,而交易标的不明确、

仓单制作难度大、产业参与度低以及期货设计中的其他限制因素又是导致期现回归性差的重要原因。

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2019

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香港IPO中超额配售选择权实际效用的实证研究

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本文采用2010年1月1日至2017年12月31日在香港主板IPO上市的共574家公司作为研究样本,系统采集包括与发行人、承销商、投资人、发行热度、市场每日交易数据等相关的数据近100项,对超额配售选择权在香港IPO中的实际效用进行实证研究,研究发现:1)超额配售选择的确可以起到提高发行价格,降低IPO抑价率的作用,但是同时也是破发的主要原因。2)由超额配售选择权赋予承销商稳价行为中,市场买入量越大,最大回撤越大,市场下跌风险越大同时超额配售选择权还导致了最大回撤日的推后,增大了稳价结束后的市场风险,而这很有可能是由于承销商追求更高利益造成的。3)没有证据显示,超额配售选择权会降低承销商的佣金比例,但是,超额配售选择权却为承销商带来非常高的额外收益,而这个收益与市场下跌幅度和承销商从市场购买股份的比例直接相关。

其中,本文首次对最大回撤率、最大回撤日与承销商市场买入量之间的关系进行实证研究,揭示了承销商市场买入量与承销商收益正相关,与最大回撤率负相关,与最大回撤日正相关的关系,可能是增加市场下跌风险的因素。这与现有理论中及监管机构的预期中,“超额配售选择权具有向上稳定价格的作用”是有一定偏差的。

根据研究结果,本文首先建议发行人要客观对待超额配售选择权提升发行价格的作用,以免引起破发。其次建议市场投资人要客观认识超额配售选择权的作用,不要由于超额配售选择权的存在给与发行过高的认同价格。再次建议发行人要能够认识到超额配售选择权是承销商零成本获得的一个有固定收益保障的看空期权,是承销商在承销IPO时的收益之一,而股价下跌幅度与承销商的收益正相关。因此要对承销商的稳价行为进行一定管控,同时可以因为超额配售选择权的存在而要求更低的承销佣金比例。最后建议承销商要维护市场公平,爱护自己的声誉,尽可能避免因超额配售选择权的使用对市场造成不应有的干扰。

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2019

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信息不对称下,“中药材全产业链服务商”模式对中药材价格的影响研究

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中医药是中华文明的瑰宝,中药材是中医药文化和产业的核心。随着近年来国家相关政策出台,中药材产业的发展备受瞩目。由于中药材产业链条长,层级多,各层级间信息不对称,因而中药材市场普遍具有“假”、“乱”、“杂”的问题。

A公司的中药材全产业链服务商模式,通过对上游各主要专营商的整合,形成一定的平台综合集采能力,并开始得到下游医药厂家、药店认可,在市场逐步形成品牌号召力。本文实证研究A公司商业模式的转型对中药材市场价格的影响,进而分析中药材全产业链服务商模式在中药材行业健康发展中所发挥的积极作用。研究结果表明,上下游产销结合的中药材全产业链服务商模式,只有在形成一定收购规模,对市场价格产生一定影响的时候,才能充分释放药材质量的信号,润滑药材交易市场,提高收购价格,增加市场波动率,发挥价格发现作用。由于中药材市场的信息不对称程度较高,如果产销结合模式仍处于初级开创阶段,产销结合模式释放的药材质量信号则不足以全面改善信息不对称的状况。

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Date Created
2019