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- Creators: Si, Jennie
Description
Animals learn to choose a proper action among alternatives according to the circumstance. Through trial-and-error, animals improve their odds by making correct association between their behavioral choices and external stimuli. While there has been an extensive literature on the theory of learning, it is still unclear how individual neurons and a neural network adapt as learning progresses. In this dissertation, single units in the medial and lateral agranular (AGm and AGl) cortices were recorded as rats learned a directional choice task. The task required the rat to make a left/right side lever press if a light cue appeared on the left/right side of the interface panel. Behavior analysis showed that rat's movement parameters during performance of directional choices became stereotyped very quickly (2-3 days) while learning to solve the directional choice problem took weeks to occur. The entire learning process was further broken down to 3 stages, each having similar number of recording sessions (days). Single unit based firing rate analysis revealed that 1) directional rate modulation was observed in both cortices; 2) the averaged mean rate between left and right trials in the neural ensemble each day did not change significantly among the three learning stages; 3) the rate difference between left and right trials of the ensemble did not change significantly either. Besides, for either left or right trials, the trial-to-trial firing variability of single neurons did not change significantly over the three stages. To explore the spatiotemporal neural pattern of the recorded ensemble, support vector machines (SVMs) were constructed each day to decode the direction of choice in single trials. Improved classification accuracy indicated enhanced discriminability between neural patterns of left and right choices as learning progressed. When using a restricted Boltzmann machine (RBM) model to extract features from neural activity patterns, results further supported the idea that neural firing patterns adapted during the three learning stages to facilitate the neural codes of directional choices. Put together, these findings suggest a spatiotemporal neural coding scheme in a rat AGl and AGm neural ensemble that may be responsible for and contributing to learning the directional choice task.
ContributorsMao, Hongwei (Author) / Si, Jennie (Thesis advisor) / Buneo, Christopher (Committee member) / Cao, Yu (Committee member) / Santello, Marco (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2014
Description
One necessary condition for the two-pass risk premium estimator to be consistent and asymptotically normal is that the rank of the beta matrix in a proposed linear asset pricing model is full column. I first investigate the asymptotic properties of the risk premium estimators and the related t-test and Wald test statistics when the full rank condition fails. I show that the beta risk of useless factors or multiple proxy factors for a true factor are priced more often than they should be at the nominal size in the asset pricing models omitting some true factors. While under the null hypothesis that the risk premiums of the true factors are equal to zero, the beta risk of the true factors are priced less often than the nominal size. The simulation results are consistent with the theoretical findings. Hence, the factor selection in a proposed factor model should not be made solely based on their estimated risk premiums. In response to this problem, I propose an alternative estimation of the underlying factor structure. Specifically, I propose to use the linear combination of factors weighted by the eigenvectors of the inner product of estimated beta matrix. I further propose a new method to estimate the rank of the beta matrix in a factor model. For this method, the idiosyncratic components of asset returns are allowed to be correlated both over different cross-sectional units and over different time periods. The estimator I propose is easy to use because it is computed with the eigenvalues of the inner product of an estimated beta matrix. Simulation results show that the proposed method works well even in small samples. The analysis of US individual stock returns suggests that there are six common risk factors in US individual stock returns among the thirteen factor candidates used. The analysis of portfolio returns reveals that the estimated number of common factors changes depending on how the portfolios are constructed. The number of risk sources found from the analysis of portfolio returns is generally smaller than the number found in individual stock returns.
ContributorsWang, Na (Author) / Ahn, Seung C. (Thesis advisor) / Kallberg, Jarl G. (Committee member) / Liu, Crocker H. (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2011
Description
A systematic top down approach to minimize risk and maximize the profits of an investment over a given period of time is proposed. Macroeconomic factors such as Gross Domestic Product (GDP), Consumer Price Index (CPI), Outstanding Consumer Credit, Industrial Production Index, Money Supply (MS), Unemployment Rate, and Ten-Year Treasury are used to predict/estimate asset (sector ETF`s) returns. Fundamental ratios of individual stocks are used to predict the stock returns. An a priori known cash-flow sequence is assumed available for investment. Given the importance of sector performance on stock performance, sector based Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) for the S&P; and Dow Jones are considered and wealth is allocated. Mean variance optimization with risk and return constraints are used to distribute the wealth in individual sectors among the selected stocks. The results presented should be viewed as providing an outer control/decision loop generating sector target allocations that will ultimately drive an inner control/decision loop focusing on stock selection. Receding horizon control (RHC) ideas are exploited to pose and solve two relevant constrained optimization problems. First, the classic problem of wealth maximization subject to risk constraints (as measured by a metric on the covariance matrices) is considered. Special consideration is given to an optimization problem that attempts to minimize the peak risk over the prediction horizon, while trying to track a wealth objective. It is concluded that this approach may be particularly beneficial during downturns - appreciably limiting downside during downturns while providing most of the upside during upturns. Investment in stocks during upturns and in sector ETF`s during downturns is profitable.
ContributorsChitturi, Divakar (Author) / Rodriguez, Armando (Thesis advisor) / Tsakalis, Konstantinos S (Committee member) / Si, Jennie (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2010
Description
Gas turbine engine for aircraft propulsion represents one of the most physics-complex and safety-critical systems in the world. Its failure diagnostic is challenging due to the complexity of the model system, difficulty involved in practical testing and the infeasibility of creating homogeneous diagnostic performance evaluation criteria for the diverse engine makes.
NASA has designed and publicized a standard benchmark problem for propulsion engine gas path diagnostic that enables comparisons among different engine diagnostic approaches. Some traditional model-based approaches and novel purely data-driven approaches such as machine learning, have been applied to this problem.
This study focuses on a different machine learning approach to the diagnostic problem. Some most common machine learning techniques, such as support vector machine, multi-layer perceptron, and self-organizing map are used to help gain insight into the different engine failure modes from the perspective of big data. They are organically integrated to achieve good performance based on a good understanding of the complex dataset.
The study presents a new hierarchical machine learning structure to enhance classification accuracy in NASA's engine diagnostic benchmark problem. The designed hierarchical structure produces an average diagnostic accuracy of 73.6%, which outperforms comparable studies that were most recently published.
NASA has designed and publicized a standard benchmark problem for propulsion engine gas path diagnostic that enables comparisons among different engine diagnostic approaches. Some traditional model-based approaches and novel purely data-driven approaches such as machine learning, have been applied to this problem.
This study focuses on a different machine learning approach to the diagnostic problem. Some most common machine learning techniques, such as support vector machine, multi-layer perceptron, and self-organizing map are used to help gain insight into the different engine failure modes from the perspective of big data. They are organically integrated to achieve good performance based on a good understanding of the complex dataset.
The study presents a new hierarchical machine learning structure to enhance classification accuracy in NASA's engine diagnostic benchmark problem. The designed hierarchical structure produces an average diagnostic accuracy of 73.6%, which outperforms comparable studies that were most recently published.
ContributorsWu, Qiyu (Author) / Si, Jennie (Thesis advisor) / Wu, Teresa (Committee member) / Tsakalis, Konstantinos (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2015