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Description
There has been important progress in understanding ecological dynamics through the development of the theory of ecological stoichiometry. This fast growing theory provides new constraints and mechanisms that can be formulated into mathematical models. Stoichiometric models incorporate the effects of both food quantity and food quality into a single framework

There has been important progress in understanding ecological dynamics through the development of the theory of ecological stoichiometry. This fast growing theory provides new constraints and mechanisms that can be formulated into mathematical models. Stoichiometric models incorporate the effects of both food quantity and food quality into a single framework that produce rich dynamics. While the effects of nutrient deficiency on consumer growth are well understood, recent discoveries in ecological stoichiometry suggest that consumer dynamics are not only affected by insufficient food nutrient content (low phosphorus (P): carbon (C) ratio) but also by excess food nutrient content (high P:C). This phenomenon, known as the stoichiometric knife edge, in which animal growth is reduced not only by food with low P content but also by food with high P content, needs to be incorporated into mathematical models. Here we present Lotka-Volterra type models to investigate the growth response of Daphnia to algae of varying P:C ratios. Using a nonsmooth system of two ordinary differential equations (ODEs), we formulate the first model to incorporate the phenomenon of the stoichiometric knife edge. We then extend this stoichiometric model by mechanistically deriving and tracking free P in the environment. This resulting full knife edge model is a nonsmooth system of three ODEs. Bifurcation analysis and numerical simulations of the full model, that explicitly tracks phosphorus, leads to quantitatively different predictions than previous models that neglect to track free nutrients. The full model shows that the grazer population is sensitive to excess nutrient concentrations as a dynamical free nutrient pool induces extreme grazer population density changes. These modeling efforts provide insight on the effects of excess nutrient content on grazer dynamics and deepen our understanding of the effects of stoichiometry on the mechanisms governing population dynamics and the interactions between trophic levels.
ContributorsPeace, Angela (Author) / Kuang, Yang (Thesis advisor) / Elser, James J (Committee member) / Baer, Steven (Committee member) / Tang, Wenbo (Committee member) / Kang, Yun (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2014
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Description
Pre-Exposure Prophylaxis (PrEP) is any medical or public health procedure used before exposure to the disease causing agent, its purpose is to prevent, rather than treat or cure a disease. Most commonly, PrEP refers to an experimental HIV-prevention strategy that would use antiretrovirals to protect HIV-negative people from HIV infection.

Pre-Exposure Prophylaxis (PrEP) is any medical or public health procedure used before exposure to the disease causing agent, its purpose is to prevent, rather than treat or cure a disease. Most commonly, PrEP refers to an experimental HIV-prevention strategy that would use antiretrovirals to protect HIV-negative people from HIV infection. A deterministic mathematical model of HIV transmission is developed to evaluate the public-health impact of oral PrEP interventions, and to compare PrEP effectiveness with respect to different evaluation methods. The effects of demographic, behavioral, and epidemic parameters on the PrEP impact are studied in a multivariate sensitivity analysis. Most of the published models on HIV intervention impact assume that the number of individuals joining the sexually active population per year is constant or proportional to the total population. In the second part of this study, three models are presented and analyzed to study the PrEP intervention, with constant, linear, and logistic recruitment rates. How different demographic assumptions can affect the evaluation of PrEP is studied. When provided with data, often least square fitting or similar approaches can be used to determine a single set of approximated parameter values that make the model fit the data best. However, least square fitting only provides point estimates and does not provide information on how strongly the data supports these particular estimates. Therefore, in the third part of this study, Bayesian parameter estimation is applied on fitting ODE model to the related HIV data. Starting with a set of prior distributions for the parameters as initial guess, Bayes' formula can be applied to obtain a set of posterior distributions for the parameters which makes the model fit the observed data best. Evaluating the posterior distribution often requires the integration of high-dimensional functions, which is usually difficult to calculate numerically. Therefore, the Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method is used to approximate the posterior distribution.
ContributorsZhao, Yuqin (Author) / Kuang, Yang (Thesis advisor) / Taylor, Jesse (Committee member) / Armbruster, Dieter (Committee member) / Tang, Wenbo (Committee member) / Kang, Yun (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2014
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Description
Presented is a study on the chemotaxis reaction process and its relation with flow topology. The effect of coherent structures in turbulent flows is characterized by studying nutrient uptake and the advantage that is received from motile bacteria over other non-motile bacteria. Variability is found to be dependent on the

Presented is a study on the chemotaxis reaction process and its relation with flow topology. The effect of coherent structures in turbulent flows is characterized by studying nutrient uptake and the advantage that is received from motile bacteria over other non-motile bacteria. Variability is found to be dependent on the initial location of scalar impurity and can be tied to Lagrangian coherent structures through recent advances in the identification of finite-time transport barriers. Advantage is relatively small for initial nutrient found within high stretching regions of the flow, and nutrient within elliptic structures provide the greatest advantage for motile species. How the flow field and the relevant flow topology lead to such a relation is analyzed.
ContributorsJones, Kimberly (Author) / Tang, Wenbo (Thesis advisor) / Kang, Yun (Committee member) / Jones, Donald (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2015
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Description
The tools developed for the use of investigating dynamical systems have provided critical understanding to a wide range of physical phenomena. Here these tools are used to gain further insight into scalar transport, and how it is affected by mixing. The aim of this research is to investigate the efficiency

The tools developed for the use of investigating dynamical systems have provided critical understanding to a wide range of physical phenomena. Here these tools are used to gain further insight into scalar transport, and how it is affected by mixing. The aim of this research is to investigate the efficiency of several different partitioning methods which demarcate flow fields into dynamically distinct regions, and the correlation of finite-time statistics from the advection-diffusion equation to these regions.

For autonomous systems, invariant manifold theory can be used to separate the system into dynamically distinct regions. Despite there being no equivalent method for nonautonomous systems, a similar analysis can be done. Systems with general time dependencies must resort to using finite-time transport barriers for partitioning; these barriers are the edges of Lagrangian coherent structures (LCS), the analog to the stable and unstable manifolds of invariant manifold theory. Using the coherent structures of a flow to analyze the statistics of trapping, flight, and residence times, the signature of anomalous diffusion are obtained.

This research also investigates the use of linear models for approximating the elements of the covariance matrix of nonlinear flows, and then applying the covariance matrix approximation over coherent regions. The first and second-order moments can be used to fully describe an ensemble evolution in linear systems, however there is no direct method for nonlinear systems. The problem is only compounded by the fact that the moments for nonlinear flows typically don't have analytic representations, therefore direct numerical simulations would be needed to obtain the moments throughout the domain. To circumvent these many computations, the nonlinear system is approximated as many linear systems for which analytic expressions for the moments exist. The parameters introduced in the linear models are obtained locally from the nonlinear deformation tensor.
ContributorsWalker, Phillip (Author) / Tang, Wenbo (Thesis advisor) / Kostelich, Eric (Committee member) / Mahalov, Alex (Committee member) / Moustaoui, Mohamed (Committee member) / Platte, Rodrigo (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2018
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Description
Earth-system models describe the interacting components of the climate system and

technological systems that affect society, such as communication infrastructures. Data

assimilation addresses the challenge of state specification by incorporating system

observations into the model estimates. In this research, a particular data

assimilation technique called the Local Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter (LETKF) is

applied

Earth-system models describe the interacting components of the climate system and

technological systems that affect society, such as communication infrastructures. Data

assimilation addresses the challenge of state specification by incorporating system

observations into the model estimates. In this research, a particular data

assimilation technique called the Local Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter (LETKF) is

applied to the ionosphere, which is a domain of practical interest due to its effects

on infrastructures that depend on satellite communication and remote sensing. This

dissertation consists of three main studies that propose strategies to improve space-

weather specification during ionospheric extreme events, but are generally applicable

to Earth-system models:

Topic I applies the LETKF to estimate ion density with an idealized model of

the ionosphere, given noisy synthetic observations of varying sparsity. Results show

that the LETKF yields accurate estimates of the ion density field and unobserved

components of neutral winds even when the observation density is spatially sparse

(2% of grid points) and there is large levels (40%) of Gaussian observation noise.

Topic II proposes a targeted observing strategy for data assimilation, which uses

the influence matrix diagnostic to target errors in chosen state variables. This

strategy is applied in observing system experiments, in which synthetic electron density

observations are assimilated with the LETKF into the Thermosphere-Ionosphere-

Electrodynamics Global Circulation Model (TIEGCM) during a geomagnetic storm.

Results show that assimilating targeted electron density observations yields on

average about 60%–80% reduction in electron density error within a 600 km radius of

the observed location, compared to 15% reduction obtained with randomly placed

vertical profiles.

Topic III proposes a methodology to account for systematic model bias arising

ifrom errors in parametrized solar and magnetospheric inputs. This strategy is ap-

plied with the TIEGCM during a geomagnetic storm, and is used to estimate the

spatiotemporal variations of bias in electron density predictions during the

transitionary phases of the geomagnetic storm. Results show that this strategy reduces

error in 1-hour predictions of electron density by about 35% and 30% in polar regions

during the main and relaxation phases of the geomagnetic storm, respectively.
ContributorsDurazo, Juan, Ph.D (Author) / Kostelich, Eric J. (Thesis advisor) / Mahalov, Alex (Thesis advisor) / Tang, Wenbo (Committee member) / Moustaoui, Mohamed (Committee member) / Platte, Rodrigo (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2018
Description
A continuously and stably stratified fluid contained in a square cavity subjected to harmonic body forcing is studied numerically by solving the Navier-Stokes equations under the Boussinesq approximation. Complex dynamics are observed near the onset of instability of the basic state, which is a flow configuration that is always an

A continuously and stably stratified fluid contained in a square cavity subjected to harmonic body forcing is studied numerically by solving the Navier-Stokes equations under the Boussinesq approximation. Complex dynamics are observed near the onset of instability of the basic state, which is a flow configuration that is always an exact analytical solution of the governing equations. The instability of the basic state to perturbations is first studied with linear stability analysis (Floquet analysis), revealing a multitude of intersecting synchronous and subharmonic resonance tongues in parameter space. A modal reduction method for determining the locus of basic state instability is also shown, greatly simplifying the computational overhead normally required by a Floquet study. Then, a study of the nonlinear governing equations determines the criticality of the basic state's instability, and ultimately characterizes the dynamics of the lowest order spatial mode by the three discovered codimension-two bifurcation points within the resonance tongue. The rich dynamics include a homoclinic doubling cascade that resembles the logistic map and a multitude of gluing bifurcations.

The numerical techniques and methodologies are first demonstrated on a homogeneous fluid contained within a three-dimensional lid-driven cavity. The edge state technique and linear stability analysis through Arnoldi iteration are used to resolve the complex dynamics of the canonical shear-driven benchmark problem. The techniques here lead to a dynamical description of an instability mechanism, and the work serves as a basis for the remainder of the dissertation.
ContributorsYalim, Jason (Author) / Welfert, Bruno D. (Thesis advisor) / Lopez, Juan M. (Thesis advisor) / Jones, Donald (Committee member) / Tang, Wenbo (Committee member) / Platte, Rodrigo (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2019
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Description
The dynamics of a fluid flow inside 2D square and 3D cubic cavities

under various configurations were simulated and analyzed using a

spectral code I developed.

This code was validated against known studies in the 3D lid-driven

cavity. It was then used to explore the various dynamical behaviors

close to the onset

The dynamics of a fluid flow inside 2D square and 3D cubic cavities

under various configurations were simulated and analyzed using a

spectral code I developed.

This code was validated against known studies in the 3D lid-driven

cavity. It was then used to explore the various dynamical behaviors

close to the onset of instability of the steady-state flow, and explain

in the process the mechanism underlying an intermittent bursting

previously observed. A fairly complete bifurcation picture emerged,

using a combination of computational tools such as selective

frequency damping, edge-state tracking and subspace restriction.

The code was then used to investigate the flow in a 2D square cavity

under stable temperature stratification, an idealized version of a lake

with warmer water at the surface compared to the bottom. The governing

equations are the Navier-Stokes equations under the Boussinesq approximation.

Simulations were done over a wide range of parameters of the problem quantifying

the driving velocity at the top (e.g. wind) and the strength of the stratification.

Particular attention was paid to the mechanisms associated with the onset of

instability of the base steady state, and the complex nontrivial dynamics

occurring beyond onset, where the presence of multiple states leads to a

rich spectrum of states, including homoclinic and heteroclinic chaos.

A third configuration investigates the flow dynamics of a fluid in a rapidly

rotating cube subjected to small amplitude modulations. The responses were

quantified by the global helicity and energy measures, and various peak

responses associated to resonances with intrinsic eigenmodes of the cavity

and/or internal retracing beams were clearly identified for the first time.

A novel approach to compute the eigenmodes is also described, making accessible

a whole catalog of these with various properties and dynamics. When the small

amplitude modulation does not align with the rotation axis (precession) we show

that a new set of eigenmodes are primarily excited as the angular velocity

increases, while triadic resonances may occur once the nonlinear regime kicks in.
ContributorsWu, Ke (Author) / Lopez, Juan (Thesis advisor) / Welfert, Bruno (Thesis advisor) / Tang, Wenbo (Committee member) / Platte, Rodrigo (Committee member) / Herrmann, Marcus (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2019
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Description
Two urban flows are analyzed, one concerned with pollutant transport in a Phoenix, Arizona neighborhood and the other with windshear detection at the Hong Kong International Airport (HKIA).

Lagrangian measures, identified with finite-time Lyapunov exponents, are first used to characterize transport patterns of inertial pollutant particles. Motivated by actual events the

Two urban flows are analyzed, one concerned with pollutant transport in a Phoenix, Arizona neighborhood and the other with windshear detection at the Hong Kong International Airport (HKIA).

Lagrangian measures, identified with finite-time Lyapunov exponents, are first used to characterize transport patterns of inertial pollutant particles. Motivated by actual events the focus is on flows in realistic urban geometry. Both deterministic and stochastic transport patterns are identified, as inertial Lagrangian coherent structures. For the deterministic case, the organizing structures are well defined and are extracted at different hours of a day to reveal the variability of coherent patterns. For the stochastic case, a random displacement model for fluid particles is formulated, and used to derive the governing equations for inertial particles to examine the change in organizing structures due to ``zeroth-order'' random noise. It is found that, (1) the Langevin equation for inertial particles can be reduced to a random displacement model; (2) using random noise based on inhomogeneous turbulence, whose diffusivity is derived from $k$-$\epsilon$ models, major coherent structures survive to organize local flow patterns and weaker structures are smoothed out due to random motion.

A study of three-dimensional Lagrangian coherent structures (LCS) near HKIA is then presented and related to previous developments of two-dimensional (2D) LCS analyses in detecting windshear experienced by landing aircraft. The LCS are contrasted among three independent models and against 2D coherent Doppler light detection and ranging (LIDAR) data. Addition of the velocity information perpendicular to the lidar scanning cone helps solidify flow structures inferred from previous studies; contrast among models reveals the intramodel variability; and comparison with flight data evaluates the performance among models in terms of Lagrangian analyses. It is found that, while the three models and the LIDAR do recover similar features of the windshear experienced by a landing aircraft (along the landing trajectory), their Lagrangian signatures over the entire domain are quite different - a portion of each numerical model captures certain features resembling those LCS extracted from independent 2D LIDAR analyses based on observations. Overall, it was found that the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model provides the best agreement with the LIDAR data.

Finally, the three-dimensional variational (3DVAR) data assimilation scheme in WRF is used to incorporate the LIDAR line of sight velocity observations into the WRF model forecast at HKIA. Using two different days as test cases, it is found that the LIDAR data can be successfully and consistently assimilated into WRF. Using the updated model forecast LCS are extracted along the LIDAR scanning cone and compare to onboard flight data. It is found that the LCS generated from the updated WRF forecasts are generally better correlated with the windshear experienced by landing aircraft as compared to the LIDAR extracted LCS alone, which suggests that such a data assimilation scheme could be used for the prediction of windshear events.
ContributorsKnutson, Brent (Author) / Tang, Wenbo (Thesis advisor) / Calhoun, Ronald (Committee member) / Huang, Huei-Ping (Committee member) / Kostelich, Eric (Committee member) / Mahalov, Alex (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2018
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Description
The retina is the lining in the back of the eye responsible for vision. When light photons hits the retina, the photoreceptors within the retina respond by sending impulses to the optic nerve, which connects to the brain. If there is injury to the eye or heredity retinal problems, this

The retina is the lining in the back of the eye responsible for vision. When light photons hits the retina, the photoreceptors within the retina respond by sending impulses to the optic nerve, which connects to the brain. If there is injury to the eye or heredity retinal problems, this part can become detached. Detachment leads to loss of nutrients, such as oxygen and glucose, to the cells in the eye and causes cell death. Sometimes the retina is able to be surgically reattached. If the photoreceptor cells have not died and the reattachment is successful, then these cells are able to regenerate their outer segments (OS) which are essential for their functionality and vitality. In this work we will explore how the regrowth of the photoreceptor cells in a healthy eye after retinal detachment can lead to a deeper understanding of how eye cells take up nutrients and regenerate. This work uses a mathematical model for a healthy eye in conjunction with data for photoreceptors' regrowth and decay. The parameters for the healthy eye model are estimated from the data and the ranges of these parameter values are centered +/- 10\% away from these values are used for sensitivity analysis. Using parameter estimation and sensitivity analysis we can better understand how certain processes represented by these parameters change within the model as a result of retinal detachment. Having a deeper understanding for any sort of photoreceptor death and growth can be used by the greater scientific community to help with these currently irreversible conditions that lead to blindness, such as retinal detachment. The analysis in this work shows that maximizing the carrying capacity of the trophic pool and the rate of RDCVF, as well as minimizing nutrient withdrawal of the rods and the cones from the trophic pool results in both the most regrowth and least cell death in retinal detachment.
ContributorsGoldman, Miriam Ayla (Author) / Camacho, Erikia (Thesis director) / Wirkus, Stephen (Committee member) / School of Mathematical and Natural Sciences (Contributor, Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2017-05
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Description
A numerical study of chemotaxis in 3D turbulence is presented here. Direct Numerical

Simulation were used to calculate the nutrient uptake for both motile and non-motile bacterial

species and by applying the dynamical systems theory the effect of flow topology on the

variability of chemotaxis is analyzed. It is done

A numerical study of chemotaxis in 3D turbulence is presented here. Direct Numerical

Simulation were used to calculate the nutrient uptake for both motile and non-motile bacterial

species and by applying the dynamical systems theory the effect of flow topology on the

variability of chemotaxis is analyzed. It is done by injecting a highly localized patch of nutrient

in the turbulent flow, and analyzing the evolution of reaction associated with the observed

high and low stretching regions. The Gaussian nutrient patch is released at different locations

and the corresponding nutrient uptake is obtained. The variable stretching characteristics of

the flow is depicted by Lagrangian Coherent Structures and the roles they play in affecting the

uptake are analyzed. The Lagrangian Coherent Structures are quantified by the Finite Time

Lyapunov Exponents which is a measure of the average stretching experienced by the flow in

finite time. It is found that in high stretching regions, the motile bacteria are attracted to the

nutrient patch very quickly, but also dispersed quickly; whereas in low stretching regions the

bacteria respond slower towards the nutrient patch. However the total uptake is intricately

determined by stretching history. These reaction characteristics are reflected in the several

realizations of simulations. This helps in understanding turbulence intensity and how it affects

the uptake of the nutrient.
ContributorsGeorge, Jino (Author) / Tang, Wenbo (Thesis advisor) / Peet, Yulia (Thesis advisor) / Calhoun, Ronald (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2017