Matching Items (9)
Description
The ability to design high performance buildings has acquired great importance in recent years due to numerous federal, societal and environmental initiatives. However, this endeavor is much more demanding in terms of designer expertise and time. It requires a whole new level of synergy between automated performance prediction with the human capabilities to perceive, evaluate and ultimately select a suitable solution. While performance prediction can be highly automated through the use of computers, performance evaluation cannot, unless it is with respect to a single criterion. The need to address multi-criteria requirements makes it more valuable for a designer to know the "latitude" or "degrees of freedom" he has in changing certain design variables while achieving preset criteria such as energy performance, life cycle cost, environmental impacts etc. This requirement can be met by a decision support framework based on near-optimal "satisficing" as opposed to purely optimal decision making techniques. Currently, such a comprehensive design framework is lacking, which is the basis for undertaking this research. The primary objective of this research is to facilitate a complementary relationship between designers and computers for Multi-Criterion Decision Making (MCDM) during high performance building design. It is based on the application of Monte Carlo approaches to create a database of solutions using deterministic whole building energy simulations, along with data mining methods to rank variable importance and reduce the multi-dimensionality of the problem. A novel interactive visualization approach is then proposed which uses regression based models to create dynamic interplays of how varying these important variables affect the multiple criteria, while providing a visual range or band of variation of the different design parameters. The MCDM process has been incorporated into an alternative methodology for high performance building design referred to as Visual Analytics based Decision Support Methodology [VADSM]. VADSM is envisioned to be most useful during the conceptual and early design performance modeling stages by providing a set of potential solutions that can be analyzed further for final design selection. The proposed methodology can be used for new building design synthesis as well as evaluation of retrofits and operational deficiencies in existing buildings.
ContributorsDutta, Ranojoy (Author) / Reddy, T Agami (Thesis advisor) / Runger, George C. (Committee member) / Addison, Marlin S. (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2013
Description
This work presents two complementary studies that propose heuristic methods to capture characteristics of data using the ensemble learning method of random forest. The first study is motivated by the problem in education of determining teacher effectiveness in student achievement. Value-added models (VAMs), constructed as linear mixed models, use students’ test scores as outcome variables and teachers’ contributions as random effects to ascribe changes in student performance to the teachers who have taught them. The VAMs teacher score is the empirical best linear unbiased predictor (EBLUP). This approach is limited by the adequacy of the assumed model specification with respect to the unknown underlying model. In that regard, this study proposes alternative ways to rank teacher effects that are not dependent on a given model by introducing two variable importance measures (VIMs), the node-proportion and the covariate-proportion. These VIMs are novel because they take into account the final configuration of the terminal nodes in the constitutive trees in a random forest. In a simulation study, under a variety of conditions, true rankings of teacher effects are compared with estimated rankings obtained using three sources: the newly proposed VIMs, existing VIMs, and EBLUPs from the assumed linear model specification. The newly proposed VIMs outperform all others in various scenarios where the model was misspecified. The second study develops two novel interaction measures. These measures could be used within but are not restricted to the VAM framework. The distribution-based measure is constructed to identify interactions in a general setting where a model specification is not assumed in advance. In turn, the mean-based measure is built to estimate interactions when the model specification is assumed to be linear. Both measures are unique in their construction; they take into account not only the outcome values, but also the internal structure of the trees in a random forest. In a separate simulation study, under a variety of conditions, the proposed measures are found to identify and estimate second-order interactions.
ContributorsValdivia, Arturo (Author) / Eubank, Randall (Thesis advisor) / Young, Dennis (Committee member) / Reiser, Mark R. (Committee member) / Kao, Ming-Hung (Committee member) / Broatch, Jennifer (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2013
Description
With the increase in computing power and availability of data, there has never been a greater need to understand data and make decisions from it. Traditional statistical techniques may not be adequate to handle the size of today's data or the complexities of the information hidden within the data. Thus knowledge discovery by machine learning techniques is necessary if we want to better understand information from data. In this dissertation, we explore the topics of asymmetric loss and asymmetric data in machine learning and propose new algorithms as solutions to some of the problems in these topics. We also studied variable selection of matched data sets and proposed a solution when there is non-linearity in the matched data. The research is divided into three parts. The first part addresses the problem of asymmetric loss. A proposed asymmetric support vector machine (aSVM) is used to predict specific classes with high accuracy. aSVM was shown to produce higher precision than a regular SVM. The second part addresses asymmetric data sets where variables are only predictive for a subset of the predictor classes. Asymmetric Random Forest (ARF) was proposed to detect these kinds of variables. The third part explores variable selection for matched data sets. Matched Random Forest (MRF) was proposed to find variables that are able to distinguish case and control without the restrictions that exists in linear models. MRF detects variables that are able to distinguish case and control even in the presence of interaction and qualitative variables.
ContributorsKoh, Derek (Author) / Runger, George C. (Thesis advisor) / Wu, Tong (Committee member) / Pan, Rong (Committee member) / Cesta, John (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2013
Description
In a healthcare setting, the Sterile Processing Department (SPD) provides ancillary services to the Operating Room (OR), Emergency Room, Labor & Delivery, and off-site clinics. SPD's function is to reprocess reusable surgical instruments and return them to their home departments. The management of surgical instruments and medical devices can impact patient safety and hospital revenue. Any time instrumentation or devices are not available or are not fit for use, patient safety and revenue can be negatively impacted. One step of the instrument reprocessing cycle is sterilization. Steam sterilization is the sterilization method used for the majority of surgical instruments and is preferred to immediate use steam sterilization (IUSS) because terminally sterilized items can be stored until needed. IUSS Items must be used promptly and cannot be stored for later use. IUSS is intended for emergency situations and not as regular course of action. Unfortunately, IUSS is used to compensate for inadequate inventory levels, scheduling conflicts, and miscommunications. If IUSS is viewed as an adverse event, then monitoring IUSS incidences can help healthcare organizations meet patient safety goals and financial goals along with aiding in process improvement efforts. This work recommends statistical process control methods to IUSS incidents and illustrates the use of control charts for IUSS occurrences through a case study and analysis of the control charts for data from a health care provider. Furthermore, this work considers the application of data mining methods to IUSS occurrences and presents a representative example of data mining to the IUSS occurrences. This extends the application of statistical process control and data mining in healthcare applications.
ContributorsWeart, Gail (Author) / Runger, George C. (Thesis advisor) / Li, Jing (Committee member) / Shunk, Dan (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2014
Description
This dissertation transforms a set of system complexity reduction problems to feature selection problems. Three systems are considered: classification based on association rules, network structure learning, and time series classification. Furthermore, two variable importance measures are proposed to reduce the feature selection bias in tree models. Associative classifiers can achieve high accuracy, but the combination of many rules is difficult to interpret. Rule condition subset selection (RCSS) methods for associative classification are considered. RCSS aims to prune the rule conditions into a subset via feature selection. The subset then can be summarized into rule-based classifiers. Experiments show that classifiers after RCSS can substantially improve the classification interpretability without loss of accuracy. An ensemble feature selection method is proposed to learn Markov blankets for either discrete or continuous networks (without linear, Gaussian assumptions). The method is compared to a Bayesian local structure learning algorithm and to alternative feature selection methods in the causal structure learning problem. Feature selection is also used to enhance the interpretability of time series classification. Existing time series classification algorithms (such as nearest-neighbor with dynamic time warping measures) are accurate but difficult to interpret. This research leverages the time-ordering of the data to extract features, and generates an effective and efficient classifier referred to as a time series forest (TSF). The computational complexity of TSF is only linear in the length of time series, and interpretable features can be extracted. These features can be further reduced, and summarized for even better interpretability. Lastly, two variable importance measures are proposed to reduce the feature selection bias in tree-based ensemble models. It is well known that bias can occur when predictor attributes have different numbers of values. Two methods are proposed to solve the bias problem. One uses an out-of-bag sampling method called OOBForest, and the other, based on the new concept of a partial permutation test, is called a pForest. Experimental results show the existing methods are not always reliable for multi-valued predictors, while the proposed methods have advantages.
ContributorsDeng, Houtao (Author) / Runger, George C. (Thesis advisor) / Lohr, Sharon L (Committee member) / Pan, Rong (Committee member) / Zhang, Muhong (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2011
Description
As threats to Earth's biodiversity continue to evolve, an effective methodology to predict such threats is crucial to ensure the survival of living species. Organizations like the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) monitor the Earth's environmental networks to preserve the sanctity of terrestrial and marine life. The IUCN Red List of Threatened Species informs the conservation activities of governments as a world standard of species' risks of extinction. However, the IUCN's current methodology is, in some ways, inefficient given the immense volume of Earth's species and the laboriousness of its species' risk classification process. IUCN assessors can take years to classify a species' extinction risk, even as that species continues to decline. Therefore, to supplement the IUCN's classification process and thus bolster conservationist efforts for threatened species, a Random Forest model was constructed, trained on a group of fish species previously classified by the IUCN Red List. This Random Forest model both validates the IUCN Red List's classification method and offers a highly efficient, supplemental classification method for species' extinction risk. In addition, this Random Forest model is applicable to species with deficient data, which the IUCN Red List is otherwise unable to classify, thus engendering conservationist efforts for previously obscure species. Although this Random Forest model is built specifically for the trained fish species (Sparidae), the methodology can and should be extended to additional species.
ContributorsWoodyard, Megan (Author) / Broatch, Jennifer (Thesis director) / Polidoro, Beth (Committee member) / Mancenido, Michelle (Committee member) / School of Humanities, Arts, and Cultural Studies (Contributor) / School of Mathematical and Natural Sciences (Contributor) / College of Integrative Sciences and Arts (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2018-05
Description
Bank institutions employ several marketing strategies to maximize new customer acquisition as well as current customer retention. Telemarketing is one such approach taken where individual customers are contacted by bank representatives with offers. These telemarketing strategies can be improved in combination with data mining techniques that allow predictability of customer information and interests. In this thesis, bank telemarketing data from a Portuguese banking institution were analyzed to determine predictability of several client demographic and financial attributes and find most contributing factors in each. Data were preprocessed to ensure quality, and then data mining models were generated for the attributes with logistic regression, support vector machine (SVM) and random forest using Orange as the data mining tool. Results were analyzed using precision, recall and F1 score.
ContributorsEjaz, Samira (Author) / Davulcu, Hasan (Thesis advisor) / Balasooriya, Janaka (Committee member) / Candan, Kasim (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2016
Description
Random forest (RF) is a popular and powerful technique nowadays. It can be used for classification, regression and unsupervised clustering. In its original form introduced by Leo Breiman, RF is used as a predictive model to generate predictions for new observations. Recent researches have proposed several methods based on RF for feature selection and for generating prediction intervals. However, they are limited in their applicability and accuracy. In this dissertation, RF is applied to build a predictive model for a complex dataset, and used as the basis for two novel methods for biomarker discovery and generating prediction interval.
Firstly, a biodosimetry is developed using RF to determine absorbed radiation dose from gene expression measured from blood samples of potentially exposed individuals. To improve the prediction accuracy of the biodosimetry, day-specific models were built to deal with day interaction effect and a technique of nested modeling was proposed. The nested models can fit this complex data of large variability and non-linear relationships.
Secondly, a panel of biomarkers was selected using a data-driven feature selection method as well as handpick, considering prior knowledge and other constraints. To incorporate domain knowledge, a method called Know-GRRF was developed based on guided regularized RF. This method can incorporate domain knowledge as a penalized term to regulate selection of candidate features in RF. It adds more flexibility to data-driven feature selection and can improve the interpretability of models. Know-GRRF showed significant improvement in cross-species prediction when cross-species correlation was used to guide selection of biomarkers. The method can also compete with existing methods using intrinsic data characteristics as alternative of domain knowledge in simulated datasets.
Lastly, a novel non-parametric method, RFerr, was developed to generate prediction interval using RF regression. This method is widely applicable to any predictive models and was shown to have better coverage and precision than existing methods on the real-world radiation dataset, as well as benchmark and simulated datasets.
Firstly, a biodosimetry is developed using RF to determine absorbed radiation dose from gene expression measured from blood samples of potentially exposed individuals. To improve the prediction accuracy of the biodosimetry, day-specific models were built to deal with day interaction effect and a technique of nested modeling was proposed. The nested models can fit this complex data of large variability and non-linear relationships.
Secondly, a panel of biomarkers was selected using a data-driven feature selection method as well as handpick, considering prior knowledge and other constraints. To incorporate domain knowledge, a method called Know-GRRF was developed based on guided regularized RF. This method can incorporate domain knowledge as a penalized term to regulate selection of candidate features in RF. It adds more flexibility to data-driven feature selection and can improve the interpretability of models. Know-GRRF showed significant improvement in cross-species prediction when cross-species correlation was used to guide selection of biomarkers. The method can also compete with existing methods using intrinsic data characteristics as alternative of domain knowledge in simulated datasets.
Lastly, a novel non-parametric method, RFerr, was developed to generate prediction interval using RF regression. This method is widely applicable to any predictive models and was shown to have better coverage and precision than existing methods on the real-world radiation dataset, as well as benchmark and simulated datasets.
ContributorsGuan, Xin (Author) / Liu, Li (Thesis advisor) / Runger, George C. (Thesis advisor) / Dinu, Valentin (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2017
Description
One persisting problem in Massive Open Online Courses (MOOCs) is the issue of student dropout from these courses. The prediction of student dropout from MOOC courses can identify the factors responsible for such an event and it can further initiate intervention before such an event to increase student success in MOOC. There are different approaches and various features available for the prediction of student’s dropout in MOOC courses.In this research, the data derived from the self-paced math course ‘College Algebra and Problem Solving’ offered on the MOOC platform Open edX offered by Arizona State University (ASU) from 2016 to 2020 was considered. This research aims to predict the dropout of students from a MOOC course given a set of features engineered from the learning of students in a day. Machine Learning (ML) model used is Random Forest (RF) and this model is evaluated using the validation metrics like accuracy, precision, recall, F1-score, Area Under the Curve (AUC), Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve. The average rate of student learning progress was found to have more impact than other features. The model developed can predict the dropout or continuation of students on any given day in the MOOC course with an accuracy of 87.5%, AUC of 94.5%, precision of 88%, recall of 87.5%, and F1-score of 87.5% respectively. The contributing features and interactions were explained using Shapely values for the prediction of the model. The features engineered in this research are predictive of student dropout and could be used for similar courses to predict student dropout from the course. This model can also help in making interventions at a critical time to help students succeed in this MOOC course.
ContributorsDominic Ravichandran, Sheran Dass (Author) / Gary, Kevin (Thesis advisor) / Bansal, Ajay (Committee member) / Cunningham, James (Committee member) / Sannier, Adrian (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2021