Matching Items (3)

What Life Tables Can Tell Us about Disease

Description

In this project, we aim to examine the methods used to obtain U.S. mortality rates, as well as the changes in the mortality rate between subgroups of interest within our population due to various diseases.

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  • 2014-05

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Using Generalized Linear Models to Develop Loss Triangles in Reserving

Description

The use of generalized linear models in loss reserving is not new; many statistical models have been developed to fit the loss data gathered by various insurance companies. The most

The use of generalized linear models in loss reserving is not new; many statistical models have been developed to fit the loss data gathered by various insurance companies. The most popular models belong to what Glen Barnett and Ben Zehnwirth in "Best Estimates for Reserves" call the "extended link ratio family (ELRF)," as they are developed from the chain ladder algorithm used by actuaries to estimate unpaid claims. Although these models are intuitive and easy to implement, they are nevertheless flawed because many of the assumptions behind the models do not hold true when fitted with real-world data. Even more problematically, the ELRF cannot account for environmental changes like inflation which are often observed in the status quo. Barnett and Zehnwirth conclude that a new set of models that contain parameters for not only accident year and development period trends but also payment year trends would be a more accurate predictor of loss development. This research applies the paper's ideas to data gathered by Company XYZ. The data was fitted with an adapted version of Barnett and Zehnwirth's new model in R, and a trend selection algorithm was developed to accompany the regression code. The final forecasts were compared to Company XYZ's booked reserves to evaluate the predictive power of the model.

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Created

Date Created
  • 2018-05

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Healthcare Cost Trend Impacts by COVID-19 in the State of Arizona

Description

Actuaries can analyze healthcare trends to determine if rates are reasonable and if reserves are adequate. In this talk, we will provide a framework of methods to analyze the healthcare

Actuaries can analyze healthcare trends to determine if rates are reasonable and if reserves are adequate. In this talk, we will provide a framework of methods to analyze the healthcare trend during the pandemic. COVID-19 may influence future healthcare cost trends in many ways. First, direct COVID-19 costs may increase the amount of total experienced healthcare costs. However, with the implementation of social distancing, the amount of regularly scheduled care may be deferred to a future date. There are also many unknown factors regarding the transmission of the virus. Implementing epidemiology models allows us to predict infections by studying the dynamics of the disease. The correlation between infection amounts and hospitalization occupancies provide a methodology to estimate the amount of deferred and recouped amounts of regularly scheduled healthcare costs. Thus, the combination of the models allows to model the healthcare cost trend impact due to COVID-19.

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Created

Date Created
  • 2021-05