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Description
Climate and land use change are projected to threaten biodiversity over the coming century. However, the combined effects of these threats on biodiversity and the capacity of current conservation networks to protect species' habitat are not well understood. The goals of this study were to evaluate the effect of climate

Climate and land use change are projected to threaten biodiversity over the coming century. However, the combined effects of these threats on biodiversity and the capacity of current conservation networks to protect species' habitat are not well understood. The goals of this study were to evaluate the effect of climate change and urban development on vegetation distribution in a Mediterranean-type ecosystem; to identify the primary source of uncertainty in suitable habitat predictions; and to evaluate how well conservation areas protect future habitat in the Southwest ecoregion of the California Floristic Province. I used a consensus-based modeling approach combining three different species distribution models to predict current and future suitable habitat for 19 plant species representing different plant functional types (PFT) defined by fire-response (obligate seeders, resprouting shrubs), and life forms (herbs, subshurbs). I also examined the response of species grouped by range sizes (large, small). I used two climate models, two emission scenarios, two thresholds, and high-resolution (90m resolution) environmental data to create a range of potential scenarios. I evaluated the effectiveness of an existing conservation network to protect suitable habitat for rare species in light of climate and land use change. The results indicate that the area of suitable habitat for each species varied depending on the climate model, emission scenario, and threshold combination. The suitable habitat for up to four species could disappear from the ecoregion, while suitable habitat for up to 15 other species could decrease under climate change conditions. The centroid of the species' suitable environmental conditions could shift up to 440 km. Large net gains in suitable habitat were predicted for a few species. The suitable habitat area for herbs has a small response to climate change, while obligate seeders could be the most affected PFT. The results indicate that the other two PFTs gain a considerable amount of suitable habitat area. Several rare species could lose suitable habitat area inside designated conservation areas while gaining suitable habitat area outside. Climate change is predicted to be more important than urban development as a driver of habitat loss for vegetation in this region in the coming century. These results indicate that regional analyses of this type are useful and necessary to understand the dynamics of drivers of change at the regional scale and to inform decision making at this scale.
ContributorsBeltrán Villarreal, Bray de Jesús (Author) / Franklin, Janet (Thesis advisor) / Fenichel, Eli P (Committee member) / Kinzig, Ann P (Committee member) / Collins, James P. (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2012
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Description
Stream flow permanence plays a critical role in determining floristic composition, abundance, and diversity in the Sonoran Desert, but questions remain about the effects of stream flow permanence on butterfly composition, abundance, and diversity. Understanding the effects of flow permanence on butterflies and relevant subsets of butterflies (such as butterflies

Stream flow permanence plays a critical role in determining floristic composition, abundance, and diversity in the Sonoran Desert, but questions remain about the effects of stream flow permanence on butterfly composition, abundance, and diversity. Understanding the effects of flow permanence on butterflies and relevant subsets of butterflies (such as butterflies whose host plants are present) and comparing them to these same effects on plants and relevant subsets of plants (such as butterfly nectar plants and larval host plants) provided insight into pollinator and riparian conservation and restoration.

I surveyed four Sonoran desert stream sites, and found significant relationships between flow permanence and plant and butterfly species richness and abundance, as well as strong relationships between plant and butterfly abundance and between plant and butterfly species richness. Most notably, my results pointed to hosted butterflies as a break-out category of butterflies which may more clearly delineate ecological relationships between butterfly and plant abundance and diversity along Sonoran Desert streams; this can inform conservation decisions. Managing for hosted (resident) butterflies will necessarily entail managing for the presence of surface water, nectar forage, varying levels of canopy cover, and plant, nectar plant, and host plant diversity since the relationships between hosted butterfly species richness and/or abundance and all of these variables were significant, both statistically and ecologically.
ContributorsButler, Lane (Author) / Stromberg, Juliet C. (Thesis advisor) / Makings, Elizabeth (Committee member) / Pearson, David L (Committee member) / Boggess, May (Committee member) / Buchmann, Stephen (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2015
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Description
This work investigates the effects of non-random sampling on our understanding of species distributions and their niches. In its most general form, bias is systematic error that can obscure interpretation of analytical results by skewing samples away from the average condition of the system they represent. Here I use species

This work investigates the effects of non-random sampling on our understanding of species distributions and their niches. In its most general form, bias is systematic error that can obscure interpretation of analytical results by skewing samples away from the average condition of the system they represent. Here I use species distribution modelling (SDM), virtual species, and multiscale geographically weighted regression (MGWR) to explore how sampling bias can alter our perception of broad patterns of biodiversity by distorting spatial predictions of habitat, a key characteristic in biogeographic studies. I use three separate case studies to explore: 1) How methods to account for sampling bias in species distribution modeling may alter estimates of species distributions and species-environment relationships, 2) How accounting for sampling bias in fossil data may change our understanding of paleo-distributions and interpretation of niche stability through time (i.e. niche conservation), and 3) How a novel use of MGWR can account for environmental sampling bias to reveal landscape patterns of local niche differences among proximal, but non-overlapping sister taxa. Broadly, my work shows that sampling bias present in commonly used federated global biodiversity observations is more than enough to degrade model performance of spatial predictions and niche characteristics. Measures commonly used to account for this bias can negate much loss, but only in certain conditions, and did not improve the ability to correctly identify explanatory variables or recreate species-environment relationships. Paleo-distributions calibrated on biased fossil records were improved with the use of a novel method to directly estimate the biased sampling distribution, which can be generalized to finer time slices for further paleontological studies. Finally, I show how a novel coupling of SDM and MGWR can illuminate local differences in niche separation that more closely match landscape genotypic variability in the two North American desert tortoise species than does their current taxonomic delineation.
ContributorsInman, Richard (Author) / Franklin, Janet (Thesis advisor) / Fotheringham, A. Stewart (Committee member) / Dorn, Ronald (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2018
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Description
Dissolved organic matter (DOM) is an important part of aquatic foodwebs because it contains carbon, nitrogen, and other elements required by heterotrophic organisms. It has many sources that determine its molecular composition, nutrient content, and biological lability and in turn, influence whether it is retained and processed in the stream

Dissolved organic matter (DOM) is an important part of aquatic foodwebs because it contains carbon, nitrogen, and other elements required by heterotrophic organisms. It has many sources that determine its molecular composition, nutrient content, and biological lability and in turn, influence whether it is retained and processed in the stream reach or exported downstream. I examined the composition of DOM from vascular wetland plants, filamentous algae, and riparian tree leaf litter in Sonoran Desert streams and its decomposition by stream microbes. I used a combination of field observations, in-situ experiments, and a manipulative laboratory incubation to test (1) how dominant primary producers influence DOM chemical composition and ecosystem metabolism at the reach scale and (2) how DOM composition and nitrogen (N) content control microbial decomposition and stream uptake of DOM. I found that differences in streamwater DOM composition between two distinct reaches of Sycamore Creek did not affect in-situ stream respiration and gross primary production rates. Stream sediment microbial respiration rates did not differ significantly when incubated in the laboratory with DOM from wetland plants, algae, and leaf litter, thus all sources were similarly labile. However, whole-stream uptake of DOM increased from leaf to algal to wetland plant leachate. Desert streams have the potential to process DOM from leaf, wetland, and algal sources, though algal and wetland DOM, due to their more labile composition, can be more readily retained and mineralized.
ContributorsKemmitt, Kathrine (Author) / Grimm, Nancy (Thesis advisor) / Hartnett, Hilairy (Committee member) / Throop, Heather (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2018
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Description

An understanding of the formation of spatial heterogeneity is important because spatial heterogeneity leads to functional consequences at the ecosystem scale; however, such an understanding is still limited. Particularly, research simultaneously considering both external variables and internal feedbacks (self-organization) is rare, partly because these two drivers are addressed under different

An understanding of the formation of spatial heterogeneity is important because spatial heterogeneity leads to functional consequences at the ecosystem scale; however, such an understanding is still limited. Particularly, research simultaneously considering both external variables and internal feedbacks (self-organization) is rare, partly because these two drivers are addressed under different methodological frameworks. In this dissertation, I show the prevalence of internal feedbacks and their interaction with heterogeneity in the preexisting template to form spatial pattern. I use a variety of techniques to account for both the top-down template effect and bottom-up self-organization. Spatial patterns of nutrients in stream surface water are influenced by the self-organized patch configuration originating from the internal feedbacks between nutrient concentration, biological patchiness, and the geomorphic template. Clumps of in-stream macrophyte are shaped by the spatial gradient of water permanence and local self-organization. Additionally, significant biological interactions among plant species also influence macrophyte distribution. The relative contributions of these drivers change in time, responding to the larger external environments or internal processes of ecosystem development. Hydrologic regime alters the effect of geomorphic template and self-organization on in-stream macrophyte distribution. The relative importance of niche vs. neutral processes in shaping biodiversity pattern is a function of hydrology: neutral processes are more important in either very high or very low discharge periods. For the spatial pattern of nutrients, as the ecosystem moves toward late succession and nitrogen becomes more limiting, the effect of self-organization intensifies. Changes in relative importance of different drivers directly affect ecosystem macroscopic properties, such as ecosystem resilience. Stronger internal feedbacks in average to wetter years are shown to increase ecosystem resistance to elevated external stress, and make the backward shifts (vegetation loss) much more gradual. But it causes increases in ecosystem hysteresis effect. Finally, I address the question whether functional consequences of spatial heterogeneity feed back to influence the processes from which spatial heterogeneity emerged through a conceptual review. Such feedbacks are not likely. Self-organized spatial patterning is a result of regular biological processes of organisms. Individual organisms do not benefit from such order. It is order for free, and for nothing.

ContributorsDong, Xiaolin (Author) / Grimm, Nancy (Thesis advisor) / Muneepeerakul, Rachata (Thesis advisor) / Franklin, Janet (Committee member) / Heffernan, James B (Committee member) / Sabo, John (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2015