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Catastrophe events occur rather infrequently, but upon their occurrence, can lead to colossal losses for insurance companies. Due to their size and volatility, catastrophe losses are often treated separately from other insurance losses. In fact, many property and casualty insurance companies feature a department or team which focuses solely on

Catastrophe events occur rather infrequently, but upon their occurrence, can lead to colossal losses for insurance companies. Due to their size and volatility, catastrophe losses are often treated separately from other insurance losses. In fact, many property and casualty insurance companies feature a department or team which focuses solely on modeling catastrophes. Setting reserves for catastrophe losses is difficult due to their unpredictable and often long-tailed nature. Determining loss development factors (LDFs) to estimate the ultimate loss amounts for catastrophe events is one method for setting reserves. In an attempt to aid Company XYZ set more accurate reserves, the research conducted focuses on estimating LDFs for catastrophes which have already occurred and have been settled. Furthermore, the research describes the process used to build a linear model in R to estimate LDFs for Company XYZ's closed catastrophe claims from 2001 \u2014 2016. This linear model was used to predict a catastrophe's LDFs based on the age in weeks of the catastrophe during the first year. Back testing was also performed, as was the comparison between the estimated ultimate losses and actual losses. Future research consideration was proposed.
ContributorsSwoverland, Robert Bo (Author) / Milovanovic, Jelena (Thesis director) / Zicarelli, John (Committee member) / School of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2018-05
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Description

This study examined how manipulations of likeability and knowledge affected mock jurors’ perceptions of female and male expert witness credibility (N=290). Our findings extend the person perception literature by demonstrating how warmth and competence overlap with existing conceptions of likeability and credibility in the psycholegal domain. We found experts high

This study examined how manipulations of likeability and knowledge affected mock jurors’ perceptions of female and male expert witness credibility (N=290). Our findings extend the person perception literature by demonstrating how warmth and competence overlap with existing conceptions of likeability and credibility in the psycholegal domain. We found experts high in likeability and/or knowledge were perceived equally positively regardless of gender in a death penalty sentencing context. Gender differences emerged when the expert was low in likeability and/or knowledge; in these conditions the male expert was perceived more positively than the comparable female expert. Although intermediate judgments (e.g., perceptions of credibility) were affected by our manipulations, ultimate decisions (e.g., sentencing) were not. Implications for theory and practice are discussed.

ContributorsNeal, Tess M.S. (Author) / Guadagno, Rosanna E. (Author) / Eno, Cassie A. (Author) / Brodsky, Stanley L. (Author)
Created2012
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Description

Despite advances in the scientific methodology of witness testimony research, no sound measure currently exists to evaluate perceptions of testimony skills. Drawing on self-efficacy and witness preparation research, the present study describes development of the Observed Witness Efficacy Scale (OWES). Factor analyses of a mock jury sample yielded a two-factor

Despite advances in the scientific methodology of witness testimony research, no sound measure currently exists to evaluate perceptions of testimony skills. Drawing on self-efficacy and witness preparation research, the present study describes development of the Observed Witness Efficacy Scale (OWES). Factor analyses of a mock jury sample yielded a two-factor structure (Poise and Communication Style) consistent with previous research on witness self-ratings of testimony delivery skills. OWES subscales showed differential patterns of association with witness credibility, witness believability, agreement with the witness, and verdict decision. Juror gender moderated the impact of Communication Style, but not Poise, on belief of and agreement with the witness. Results are discussed with attention to application of the OWES to witness research and preparation training.

ContributorsCramer, Robert J. (Author) / DeCoster, Jamie (Author) / Neal, Tess M.S. (Author) / Brodsky, Stanley L. (Author)
Created2013
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Description

We conducted an international survey in which forensic examiners who were members of professional associations described their two most recent forensic evaluations (N=434 experts, 868 cases), focusing on the use of structured assessment tools to aid expert judgment. This study describes:

1. The relative frequency of various forensic referrals.
2. What tools

We conducted an international survey in which forensic examiners who were members of professional associations described their two most recent forensic evaluations (N=434 experts, 868 cases), focusing on the use of structured assessment tools to aid expert judgment. This study describes:

1. The relative frequency of various forensic referrals.
2. What tools are used globally.
3. Frequency and type of structured tools used.
4. Practitioners’ rationales for using/not using tools.

We provide general descriptive information for various referrals. We found most evaluations used tools (74.2%) and used several (on average 4). We noted the extreme variety in tools used (286 different tools). We discuss the implications of these findings and provide suggestions for improving the reliability and validity of forensic expert judgment methods. We conclude with a call for an assessment approach that seeks structured decision methods to advance greater efficiency in the use and integration of case-relevant information.

ContributorsNeal, Tess M.S. (Author) / Grisso, Thomas (Author)
Created2014-09-25
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Description

The essential tasks for an expert witness are to be prepared, to be effective and credible on the stand, and to manage well the demands of cross-examinations. Most novice experts are excessively anxious about their testimony. Effective experts are well-oriented to the legal and scientific context of court testimony. This

The essential tasks for an expert witness are to be prepared, to be effective and credible on the stand, and to manage well the demands of cross-examinations. Most novice experts are excessively anxious about their testimony. Effective experts are well-oriented to the legal and scientific context of court testimony. This chapter reviews research-backed tips for preparing for expert testimony.

ContributorsBrodsky, Stanley L. (Author) / Neal, Tess M.S. (Author)
Created2013
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Description

The effect of eye contact on credibility was examined via a 3 (low, medium, high eye contact) x 2 (male, female) between-groups design with 232 undergraduate participants. A trial transcript excerpt about a defendant’s recidivism likelihood was utilized as the experts’ script. A main effect was found: experts with high

The effect of eye contact on credibility was examined via a 3 (low, medium, high eye contact) x 2 (male, female) between-groups design with 232 undergraduate participants. A trial transcript excerpt about a defendant’s recidivism likelihood was utilized as the experts’ script. A main effect was found: experts with high eye contact had higher credibility ratings than in the medium and low conditions. Although a confound precluded comparisons between the genders, results indicated that males with high eye contact were more credible than males with medium or low eye contact. The female experts’ credibility wasn’t significantly different regardless of eye contact. Eye contact may be especially important for males: male experts should maintain eye contact for maximum credibility.

ContributorsNeal, Tess M.S. (Author) / Brodsky, Stanley L. (Author)
Created2008
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Description

Self-Efficacy Theory (SET; Bandura, 1986, 2000) has generated research and practice ramifications across areas of psychology. However, self-efficacy has yet to be assessed in a legal context. The present paper juxtaposes self-efficacy with self-confidence in terms of theoretical foundations and practical implications, with attention to the area of witness testimony.

Self-Efficacy Theory (SET; Bandura, 1986, 2000) has generated research and practice ramifications across areas of psychology. However, self-efficacy has yet to be assessed in a legal context. The present paper juxtaposes self-efficacy with self-confidence in terms of theoretical foundations and practical implications, with attention to the area of witness testimony. It is concluded that the concept of witness self-efficacy possesses thorough theoretical grounding as a potential target for witness preparation. As such, we put forth an integrated model of witness preparation featuring self-efficacy bolstering techniques within an established witness training framework.

ContributorsCramer, Robert J. (Author) / Neal, Tess M.S. (Author) / Brodsky, Stanley L. (Author)
Created2009
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Description

Despite the application of Self-Efficacy Theory (Bandura, 1977, 2000) to many areas of psychology, there is a lack of research on self-efficacy in the ability to testify in court. The present study fills this gap by incrementally developing the construct of Witness Self-Efficacy and establishing its psychometric properties. Study I

Despite the application of Self-Efficacy Theory (Bandura, 1977, 2000) to many areas of psychology, there is a lack of research on self-efficacy in the ability to testify in court. The present study fills this gap by incrementally developing the construct of Witness Self-Efficacy and establishing its psychometric properties. Study I featured exploratory and confirmatory factor analyses yielding a two-factor Witness Self-Efficacy Scale (WSES). The two components are Poise and Communication Style. Study II used a second data collection to show that both WSES domains possess convergent, divergent, and predictive validity relations consistent with those expected using an SET framework. Notably, WSES components predicted perceptions of witness credibility and sentencing outcomes above and beyond witness extraversion, general self-efficacy and general self-confidence. Implications for SET and witness preparation training are discussed.

ContributorsCramer, Robert J. (Author) / Neal, Tess M.S. (Author) / DeCoster, Jamie (Author) / Brodsky, Stanley L. (Author)
Created2010
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Description
AARP estimates that 90% of seniors wish to remain in their homes during retirement. Seniors need assistance as they age, historically they have received assistance from either family members, nursing homes, or Continuing Care Retirement Communities. For seniors not wanting any of these options, there has been very few alternatives.

AARP estimates that 90% of seniors wish to remain in their homes during retirement. Seniors need assistance as they age, historically they have received assistance from either family members, nursing homes, or Continuing Care Retirement Communities. For seniors not wanting any of these options, there has been very few alternatives. Now, the emergence of the continuing care at home program is providing hope for a different method of elder care moving forward. CCaH programs offer services such as: skilled nursing care, care coordination, emergency response systems, aid with personal and health care, and transportation. Such services allow seniors to continue to live in their own home with assistance as their health deteriorates over time. Currently, only 30 CCaH programs exist. With the growth of the elderly population in the coming years, this model seems poised for growth.
ContributorsSturm, Brendan (Author) / Milovanovic, Jelena (Thesis director) / Hassett, Matthew (Committee member) / School of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences (Contributor) / Economics Program in CLAS (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2019-05
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Description

The objective of this study is to build a model using R and RStudio that automates ratemaking procedures for Company XYZ’s actuaries in their commercial general liability pricing department. The purpose and importance of this objective is to allow actuaries to work more efficiently and effectively by using this model

The objective of this study is to build a model using R and RStudio that automates ratemaking procedures for Company XYZ’s actuaries in their commercial general liability pricing department. The purpose and importance of this objective is to allow actuaries to work more efficiently and effectively by using this model that outputs the results they otherwise would have had to code and calculate on their own. Instead of spending time working towards these results, the actuaries can analyze the findings, strategize accordingly, and communicate with business partners. The model was built from R code that was later transformed to Shiny, a package within RStudio that allows for the build-up of interactive web applications. The final result is a Shiny app that first takes in multiple datasets from Company XYZ’s data warehouse and displays different views of the data in order for actuaries to make selections on development and trend methods. The app outputs the re-created ratemaking exhibits showing the resulting developed and trended loss and premium as well as the experience-based indicated rate level change based on prior selections. The ratemaking process and Shiny app functionality will be detailed in this report.

ContributorsGilkey, Gina (Author) / Zicarelli, John (Thesis director) / Milovanovic, Jelena (Committee member) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor) / School of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences (Contributor)
Created2022-05