Matching Items (25)
Description
'Attributional' Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) quantitatively tracks the potential environmental impacts of international value chains, in retrospective, while ensuring that burden shifting is avoided. Despite the growing popularity of LCA as a decision-support tool, there are numerous concerns relating to uncertainty and variability in LCA that affects its reliability and credibility. It is pertinent that some part of future research in LCA be guided towards increasing reliability and credibility for decision-making, while utilizing the LCA framework established by ISO 14040.
In this dissertation, I have synthesized the present state of knowledge and application of uncertainty and variability in ‘attributional’ LCA, and contribute to its quantitative assessment.
Firstly, the present state of addressment of uncertainty and variability in LCA is consolidated and reviewed. It is evident that sources of uncertainty and variability exist in the following areas: ISO standards, supplementary guides, software tools, life cycle inventory (LCI) databases, all four methodological phases of LCA, and use of LCA information. One source of uncertainty and variability, each, is identified, selected, quantified, and its implications discussed.
The use of surrogate LCI data in lieu of missing dataset(s) or data-gaps is a source of uncertainty. Despite the widespread use of surrogate data, there has been no effort to (1) establish any form of guidance for the appropriate selection of surrogate data and, (2) estimate the uncertainty associated with the choice and use of surrogate data. A formal expert elicitation-based methodology to select the most appropriate surrogates and to quantify the associated uncertainty was proposed and implemented.
Product-evolution in a non-uniform manner is a source of temporal variability that is presently not considered in LCA modeling. The resulting use of outdated LCA information will lead to misguided decisions affecting the issue at concern and eventually the environment. In order to demonstrate product-evolution within the scope of ISO 14044, and given that variability cannot be reduced, the sources of product-evolution were identified, generalized, analyzed and their implications (individual and coupled) on LCA results are quantified.
Finally, recommendations were provided for the advancement of robustness of 'attributional' LCA, with respect to uncertainty and variability.
In this dissertation, I have synthesized the present state of knowledge and application of uncertainty and variability in ‘attributional’ LCA, and contribute to its quantitative assessment.
Firstly, the present state of addressment of uncertainty and variability in LCA is consolidated and reviewed. It is evident that sources of uncertainty and variability exist in the following areas: ISO standards, supplementary guides, software tools, life cycle inventory (LCI) databases, all four methodological phases of LCA, and use of LCA information. One source of uncertainty and variability, each, is identified, selected, quantified, and its implications discussed.
The use of surrogate LCI data in lieu of missing dataset(s) or data-gaps is a source of uncertainty. Despite the widespread use of surrogate data, there has been no effort to (1) establish any form of guidance for the appropriate selection of surrogate data and, (2) estimate the uncertainty associated with the choice and use of surrogate data. A formal expert elicitation-based methodology to select the most appropriate surrogates and to quantify the associated uncertainty was proposed and implemented.
Product-evolution in a non-uniform manner is a source of temporal variability that is presently not considered in LCA modeling. The resulting use of outdated LCA information will lead to misguided decisions affecting the issue at concern and eventually the environment. In order to demonstrate product-evolution within the scope of ISO 14044, and given that variability cannot be reduced, the sources of product-evolution were identified, generalized, analyzed and their implications (individual and coupled) on LCA results are quantified.
Finally, recommendations were provided for the advancement of robustness of 'attributional' LCA, with respect to uncertainty and variability.
ContributorsSubramanian, Vairavan (Author) / Golden, Jay S (Thesis advisor) / Chester, Mikhail V (Thesis advisor) / Allenby, Braden R. (Committee member) / Dooley, Kevin J (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2016
Description
The proper quantification and visualization of uncertainty requires a high level of domain knowledge. Despite this, few studies have collected and compared the roles, experiences and opinions of scientists in different types of uncertainty analysis. I address this gap by conducting two types of studies: 1) a domain characterization study with general questions for experts from various fields based on a recent literature review in ensemble analysis and visualization, and; 2) a long-term interview with domain experts focusing on specific problems and challenges in uncertainty analysis. From the domain characterization, I identified the most common metrics applied for uncertainty quantification and discussed the current visualization applications of these methods. Based on the interviews with domain experts, I characterized the background and intents of the experts when performing uncertainty analysis. This enables me to characterize domain needs that are currently underrepresented or unsupported in the literature. Finally, I developed a new framework for visualizing uncertainty in climate ensembles.
ContributorsLiang, Xing (Author) / Maciejewski, Ross (Thesis advisor) / Mascaro, Giuseppe (Committee member) / Sarjoughian, Hessam S. (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2016
Description
This investigation is focused on the consideration of structural uncertainties in nearly-straight pipes conveying fluid and on the effects of these uncertainties on the dynamic response and stability of those pipes. Of interest more specifically are the structural uncertainties which affect directly the fluid flow and its feedback on the structural response, e.g., uncertainties on/variations of the inner cross-section and curvature of the pipe. Owing to the complexity of introducing such uncertainties directly in finite element models, it is desired to proceed directly at the level of modal models by randomizing simultaneously the appropriate mass, stiffness, and damping matrices. The maximum entropy framework is adopted to carry out the stochastic modeling of these matrices with appropriate symmetry constraints guaranteeing that the nature, e.g., divergence or flutter, of the bifurcation is preserved when introducing uncertainty.
To support the formulation of this stochastic ROM, a series of finite element computations are first carried out for pipes with straight centerline but inner radius varying randomly along the pipe. The results of this numerical discovery effort demonstrate that the dominant effects originate from the variations of the exit flow speed, induced by the change in inner cross-section at the pipe end, with the uncertainty on the cross-section at other locations playing a secondary role. Relying on these observations, the stochastic reduced order model is constructed to model separately the uncertainty in inner cross-section at the pipe end and at other locations. Then, the fluid related mass, damping, and stiffness matrices of this stochastic reduced order model (ROM) are all determined from a single random matrix and a random variable. The predictions from this stochastic ROM are found to closely match the corresponding results obtained with the randomized finite element model. It is finally demonstrated that this stochastic ROM can easily be extended to account for the small effects due to uncertainty in pipe curvature.
To support the formulation of this stochastic ROM, a series of finite element computations are first carried out for pipes with straight centerline but inner radius varying randomly along the pipe. The results of this numerical discovery effort demonstrate that the dominant effects originate from the variations of the exit flow speed, induced by the change in inner cross-section at the pipe end, with the uncertainty on the cross-section at other locations playing a secondary role. Relying on these observations, the stochastic reduced order model is constructed to model separately the uncertainty in inner cross-section at the pipe end and at other locations. Then, the fluid related mass, damping, and stiffness matrices of this stochastic reduced order model (ROM) are all determined from a single random matrix and a random variable. The predictions from this stochastic ROM are found to closely match the corresponding results obtained with the randomized finite element model. It is finally demonstrated that this stochastic ROM can easily be extended to account for the small effects due to uncertainty in pipe curvature.
ContributorsShah, Shrinil (Author) / Mignolet, Marc P (Thesis advisor) / Liu, Yongming (Committee member) / Oswald, Jay (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2017
Description
The focus of this investigation is on the development of a surrogate model of hypersonic aerodynamic forces on structures to reduce the computational effort involved in the determination of the structural response. The application is more precisely focused on uncertain structures. Then, following an uncertainty management strategy, the surrogate may exhibit an error with respect to Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) reference data as long as that error does not significantly affect the uncertainty band of the structural response. Moreover, this error will be treated as an epistemic uncertainty introduced in the model thereby generating an uncertain surrogate. Given this second step, the aerodynamic surrogate is limited to those exhibiting simple analytic forms with parameters that can be identified from CFD data.
The first phase of the investigation focuses on the selection of an appropriate form for the surrogate for the 1-dimensional flow over a flat clamped-clamped. Following piston theory, the model search started with purely local models, linear and nonlinear of the local slope. A second set of models was considered that involve also the local displacement, curvature, and integral of displacement and an improvement was observed that can be attributed to a global effect of the pressure distribution. Various ways to involve such a global effect were next investigated eventually leading to a two-level composite model based on the sum of a local component represented as a cubic polynomial of the downwash and a global component represented by an auto-regressive moving average (ARMA) model driven nonlinearly by the local downwash. This composite model is applicable to both steady pressure distributions with the downwash equal to the slope and to unsteady cases with the downwash as partial derivative with time in addition to steady.
The second part of the investigation focused on the introduction of the epistemic uncertainty in the aerodynamic surrogate and it was recognized that it could be achieved by randomizing the coefficients of the local and/or the auto-regressive components of the model. In fact, the combination of the two effects provided an applicable strategy.
The first phase of the investigation focuses on the selection of an appropriate form for the surrogate for the 1-dimensional flow over a flat clamped-clamped. Following piston theory, the model search started with purely local models, linear and nonlinear of the local slope. A second set of models was considered that involve also the local displacement, curvature, and integral of displacement and an improvement was observed that can be attributed to a global effect of the pressure distribution. Various ways to involve such a global effect were next investigated eventually leading to a two-level composite model based on the sum of a local component represented as a cubic polynomial of the downwash and a global component represented by an auto-regressive moving average (ARMA) model driven nonlinearly by the local downwash. This composite model is applicable to both steady pressure distributions with the downwash equal to the slope and to unsteady cases with the downwash as partial derivative with time in addition to steady.
The second part of the investigation focused on the introduction of the epistemic uncertainty in the aerodynamic surrogate and it was recognized that it could be achieved by randomizing the coefficients of the local and/or the auto-regressive components of the model. In fact, the combination of the two effects provided an applicable strategy.
ContributorsSharma, Pulkit (Author) / Mignolet, Marc Paul (Thesis advisor) / Liu, Yongming (Committee member) / McNamara, Jack (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2017
ContributorsHolling, C. S. (Author) / Sundstrom, Shana M. (Author)
Created2015
Description
Traditional infrastructure design approaches were born with industrialization. During this time the relatively stable environments allowed infrastructure systems to reliably provide service with networks designed to precise parameters and organizations fixated on maximizing efficiency. Now, infrastructure systems face the challenge of operating in the Anthropocene, an era of complexity. The environments in which infrastructure systems operate are changing more rapidly than the technologies and governance systems of infrastructure. Infrastructure systems will need to be resilient to navigate stability and instability and avoid obsolescence. This dissertation addresses how infrastructure systems could be designed for the Anthropocene, assessing technologies able to operate with uncertainty, rethinking the principles of technology design, and restructuring infrastructure governance. Resilience, in engineering, has often been defined as resistance to known disturbances with a focus on infrastructure assets. Resilience, more broadly reviewed, includes resistance, adaptation, and transformation across physical and governance domains. This dissertation constructs a foundation for resilient infrastructure through an assessment of resilience paradigms in engineering, complexity and deep uncertainty (Chapter 2), ecology (Chapter 3), and organizational change and leadership (Chapter 4). The second chapter reconciles frameworks of complexity and deep uncertainty to help infrastructure managers navigate the instability infrastructure systems face, with a focus on climate change. The third chapter identifies competencies of resilience in infrastructure theory and practice and compares those competencies with ‘Life’s Principles’ in ecology, presenting opportunities for growth and innovation in infrastructure resilience and highlighting the need for satisficed (to satisfy and suffice) solutions. The fourth chapter navigates pressures of exploitation and exploration that infrastructure institutions face during periods of stability and instability, proposing leadership capabilities to enhance institutional resilience. Finally, the dissertation is concluded with a chapter synthesizing the previous chapters, providing guidance for alternative design approaches for advancing resilient infrastructure. Combined, the work challenges the basic mental models used by engineers when approaching infrastructure design and recommends new ways of doing and thinking for the accelerating and increasingly uncertain conditions of the future.
ContributorsHelmrich, Alysha Marie (Author) / Chester, Mikhail V (Thesis advisor) / Grimm, Nancy B (Committee member) / Garcia, Margaret (Committee member) / Meerow, Sara (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2021
Description
The grand transition of electric grids from conventional fossil fuel resources to intermittent bulk renewable resources and distributed energy resources (DERs) has initiated a paradigm shift in power system operation. Distributed energy resources (i.e. rooftop solar photovoltaic, battery storage, electric vehicles, and demand response), communication infrastructures, and smart measurement devices provide the opportunity for electric utility customers to play an active role in power system operation and even benefit financially from this opportunity. However, new operational challenges have been introduced due to the intrinsic characteristics of DERs such as intermittency of renewable resources, distributed nature of these resources, variety of DERs technologies and human-in-the-loop effect. Demand response (DR) is one of DERs and is highly influenced by human-in-the-loop effect. A data-driven based analysis is implemented to analyze and reveal the customers price responsiveness, and human-in-the-loop effect. The results confirm the critical impact of demographic characteristics of customers on their interaction with smart grid and their quality of service (QoS). The proposed framework is also applicable to other types of DERs. A chance-constraint based second-order-cone programming AC optimal power flow (SOCP-ACOPF) is utilized to dispatch DERs in distribution grid with knowing customers price responsiveness and energy output distribution. The simulation shows that the reliability of distribution gird can be improved by using chance-constraint.
ContributorsHe, Mingyue (Author) / Khorsand, Mojdeh (Thesis advisor) / Vittal, Vijay (Committee member) / Pal, Anamitra (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2019
Description
Uncertainty is intrinsic in Cyber-Physical Systems since they interact with human and work with both analog and digital worlds. Since even minute deviation from the real values can make catastrophe in a safety-critical application, considering uncertainties in CPS behavior is essential. On the other side, time is a foundational aspect of Cyber-Physical Systems (CPS). Correct timing of system events is critical to optimize responsiveness to the environment, in terms of timeliness, accuracy, and precision in the knowledge, measurement, prediction, and control of CPS behavior. In order to design a more resilient and reliable CPS, first and foremost, there should be a way to specify the timing constraints that a constructed Cyber-Physical System must meet with considering existing uncertainties. Only then, we can seek systematic approaches to check if all timing constraints are being met, and develop correct-by-construction methodologies. In this regard, Timestamp Temporal Logic (TTL) is developed to specify the timing constraints on a distributed CPS. By TTL designers can specify the timing requirements that a CPS must satisfy in a succinct and intuitive manner and express the tolerable error as a part of the language. The proposed deduction system on TTL (TTL reasoning system) gives the ability to check the consistency among expresses system specifications and simplify them to be implemented on FPGA for run-time verification. Regarding CPS run-time verification, Timestamp-based Monitoring Approach(TMA) has been designed that can hook up to a CPS and take its timing specifications in TTL and verify if the timing constraints are being met with considering existing uncertainties in the system. TMA does not need to compute whether the constraint is being met at each and every instance of time but it re-evaluates constraint only when there is an event that can affect the outcome. This enables it to perform online timing monitoring of CPS for less computation and resources. Furthermore, the minimum design parameters of the timing CPS that are required to enable testing the timing of CPS are defined in this dissertation
ContributorsMehrabian, Mohammadreza (Author) / Shrivastava, Aviral (Thesis advisor) / Ren, Fengbo (Committee member) / Sarjoughian, Hessam (Committee member) / Derler, Patricia (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2021
Description
The welfare consequences of price versus quantity-based regulation are known to differ when information about marginal benefits or costs of abatement is imperfect. Does uncertainty about demand for the polluting good also matter for welfare of these two approaches to regulation? In chapter 1, I use plant-level survey data and high frequency variation in power consumption to assess the dynamic implications of uncertainty about future demand for the relative welfare consequences of carbon taxes and cap-and-trade regulation. I address this question in the context of the electricity sector where demand risk is particularly salient. I show that the choice between policy instruments depends on how firms and consumers balance unpredictable output volatility (higher with carbon taxes) vs. price volatility (higher with cap-and-trade regulation). Over a wide range of policy-relevant abatement targets, I find carbon taxes outperform cap-and-trade in terms of welfare. Financial incentives like the Production Tax Credit are central initiatives behind wind power as the leading renewable energy source in the U.S. But do institutional design features of energy markets matter for cost-effectiveness of subsidies to wind investments? In chapter 2, I answer this question by investigating how the design of procurement contracts that are typically used by wind developers affects their investment incentives. Using unit-level data from wind farm production and installed capacity, I find that structuring subsidies based on key features of the type of procurement contracts associated to wind projects leads to major reductions in public expenditures in terms of subsidy payments to wind developers without undermining their investment incentives. The U.S. federal government is known to have a history of heavily subsidizing the wind power industry. Subsidies either to output (Production Tax Credit) or investment goods (Investment Tax Credit) have been critical to replace emissions-intensive technologies with wind power. Which type of subsidy is best to incentivize wind investments at the least cost? In chapter 3, I use plant-level data of wind facilities from the Texas electricity market to develop and estimate a model of investment decisions that accounts for productivity shocks at the wind farm level and prudent behavior of developers. I find that subsidizing production can increase average yearly investment rates in wind capacity up to 2.5 percentage points over mean investment rates under alternative subsidies to capital. This is driven by precautionary savings that developers accumulate to smooth out potential future shocks to investment income when adverse weather conditions lead to low subsidy payments.
ContributorsGómez Trejos, Felipe Alberto (Author) / Silverman, Daniel (Thesis advisor) / Fried, Stephie (Committee member) / Ventura, Gustavo (Committee member) / Kuminoff, Nicolai (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2023
Description
Applying the theory of dynamic capabilities, this research explores the procedures and the outcomes of adaptations in disaster relief nonprofit organizations. Using the in-depth interviews and survey data from the managers of disaster relief nonprofit organizations in Arizona, Florida, and New Jersey, this research answers three key questions: 1) How do disaster relief nonprofit organizations apply their dynamic capabilities to make adaptations? 2) What are the impacts of dynamic capabilities, including sensing, learning, integrating, and coordinating capabilities, on the performance of disaster relief nonprofit organizations in service provision, public policy engagement, and community social capital cultivation? 3) Taking the network of Voluntary/Community Organizations Active in Disasters (VOAD/COAD) as an example, can the dynamic capabilities of disaster relief nonprofit organizations explain the variation of network engagement and the gained benefits from the network among the VOAD/COAD members? The results show that the procedures of adaptation in disaster relief nonprofit organizations are associated with a rhizomic rather than a linear approach, which is implied by the theory of dynamic capabilities. Strategic connectivity, temporal simultaneity, and directional flexibility are the three critical features of the rhizome model. Additionally, dynamic capabilities significantly influence organizational performance in service provision, public policy engagement, and social capital cultivation, although sensing, learning, integrating, and coordinating capabilities shape performance differently. Moreover, network engagement, as an uncommon practice for disaster relief nonprofit organizations, is also impacted by the dynamic capabilities of disaster relief nonprofit organizations. The result shows that dynamic capabilities, especially learning capability, can promote the acquired benefits of disaster relief nonprofit organizations by bringing them more support in volunteer management and financial opportunities.
The findings not only advance the current discussion about nonprofit engagement in disaster management but also add knowledge on dynamic capabilities in the third sector. The exploration of adaptations in disaster relief nonprofit organizations and the operation of the VOAD/COAD network provides valuable implications to both nonprofit managers and government officials.
ContributorsLi, Peiyao (Author) / Wang, Lili (Thesis advisor) / Mook, Laurie (Thesis advisor) / Gerber, Brian (Committee member) / Gall, Melanie (Committee member) / Kapucu, Naim (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2023