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Propensity score estimation with random forests

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Random Forests is a statistical learning method which has been proposed for propensity score estimation models that involve complex interactions, nonlinear relationships, or both of the covariates. In this dissertation I conducted a simulation study to examine the effects of three Random Forests model specifications in propensity score analysis. The…

Random Forests is a statistical learning method which has been proposed for propensity score estimation models that involve complex interactions, nonlinear relationships, or both of the covariates. In this dissertation I conducted a simulation study to examine the effects of three Random Forests model specifications in propensity score analysis. The results suggested that, depending on the nature of data, optimal specification of (1) decision rules to select the covariate and its split value in a Classification Tree, (2) the number of covariates randomly sampled for selection, and (3) methods of estimating Random Forests propensity scores could potentially produce an unbiased average treatment effect estimate after propensity scores weighting by the odds adjustment. Compared to the logistic regression estimation model using the true propensity score model, Random Forests had an additional advantage in producing unbiased estimated standard error and correct statistical inference of the average treatment effect. The relationship between the balance on the covariates' means and the bias of average treatment effect estimate was examined both within and between conditions of the simulation. Within conditions, across repeated samples there was no noticeable correlation between the covariates' mean differences and the magnitude of bias of average treatment effect estimate for the covariates that were imbalanced before adjustment. Between conditions, small mean differences of covariates after propensity score adjustment were not sensitive enough to identify the optimal Random Forests model specification for propensity score analysis.
ContributorsCham, Hei Ning (Author) / Tein, Jenn-Yun (Thesis advisor) / Enders, Stephen G (Thesis advisor) / Enders, Craig K. (Committee member) / Mackinnon, David P (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2013
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Nonword item generation: predicting item difficulty in nonword repetition

Description
The current study employs item difficulty modeling procedures to evaluate the feasibility of potential generative item features for nonword repetition. Specifically, the extent to which the manipulated item features affect the theoretical mechanisms that underlie nonword repetition accuracy was estimated. Generative item features were based on the phonological loop component…

The current study employs item difficulty modeling procedures to evaluate the feasibility of potential generative item features for nonword repetition. Specifically, the extent to which the manipulated item features affect the theoretical mechanisms that underlie nonword repetition accuracy was estimated. Generative item features were based on the phonological loop component of Baddelely's model of working memory which addresses phonological short-term memory (Baddeley, 2000, 2003; Baddeley & Hitch, 1974). Using researcher developed software, nonwords were generated to adhere to the phonological constraints of Spanish. Thirty-six nonwords were chosen based on the set item features identified by the proposed cognitive processing model. Using a planned missing data design, two-hundred fifteen Spanish-English bilingual children were administered 24 of the 36 generated nonwords. Multiple regression and explanatory item response modeling techniques (e.g., linear logistic test model, LLTM; Fischer, 1973) were used to estimate the impact of item features on item difficulty. The final LLTM included three item radicals and two item incidentals. Results indicated that the LLTM predicted item difficulties were highly correlated with the Rasch item difficulties (r = .89) and accounted for a substantial amount of the variance in item difficulty (R2 = .79). The findings are discussed in terms of validity evidence in support of using the phonological loop component of Baddeley's model (2000) as a cognitive processing model for nonword repetition items and the feasibility of using the proposed radical structure as an item blueprint for the future generation of nonword repetition items.
ContributorsMorgan, Gareth Philip (Author) / Gorin, Joanna (Thesis advisor) / Levy, Roy (Committee member) / Gray, Shelley (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2011
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The accuracy of accuracy estimates for single form dichotomous classification exams

Description
The use of exams for classification purposes has become prevalent across many fields including professional assessment for employment screening and standards based testing in educational settings. Classification exams assign individuals to performance groups based on the comparison of their observed test scores to a pre-selected criterion (e.g. masters vs. nonmasters…

The use of exams for classification purposes has become prevalent across many fields including professional assessment for employment screening and standards based testing in educational settings. Classification exams assign individuals to performance groups based on the comparison of their observed test scores to a pre-selected criterion (e.g. masters vs. nonmasters in dichotomous classification scenarios). The successful use of exams for classification purposes assumes at least minimal levels of accuracy of these classifications. Classification accuracy is an index that reflects the rate of correct classification of individuals into the same category which contains their true ability score. Traditional methods estimate classification accuracy via methods which assume that true scores follow a four-parameter beta-binomial distribution. Recent research suggests that Item Response Theory may be a preferable alternative framework for estimating examinees' true scores and may return more accurate classifications based on these scores. Researchers hypothesized that test length, the location of the cut score, the distribution of items, and the distribution of examinee ability would impact the recovery of accurate estimates of classification accuracy. The current simulation study manipulated these factors to assess their potential influence on classification accuracy. Observed classification as masters vs. nonmasters, true classification accuracy, estimated classification accuracy, BIAS, and RMSE were analyzed. In addition, Analysis of Variance tests were conducted to determine whether an interrelationship existed between levels of the four manipulated factors. Results showed small values of estimated classification accuracy and increased BIAS in accuracy estimates with few items, mismatched distributions of item difficulty and examinee ability, and extreme cut scores. A significant four-way interaction between manipulated variables was observed. In additional to interpretations of these findings and explanation of potential causes for the recovered values, recommendations that inform practice and avenues of future research are provided.
ContributorsKunze, Katie (Author) / Gorin, Joanna (Thesis advisor) / Levy, Roy (Thesis advisor) / Green, Samuel (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2013