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The main objective of this research is to develop an integrated method to study emergent behavior and consequences of evolution and adaptation in engineered complex adaptive systems (ECASs). A multi-layer conceptual framework and modeling approach including behavioral and structural aspects is provided to describe the structure of a class of

The main objective of this research is to develop an integrated method to study emergent behavior and consequences of evolution and adaptation in engineered complex adaptive systems (ECASs). A multi-layer conceptual framework and modeling approach including behavioral and structural aspects is provided to describe the structure of a class of engineered complex systems and predict their future adaptive patterns. The approach allows the examination of complexity in the structure and the behavior of components as a result of their connections and in relation to their environment. This research describes and uses the major differences of natural complex adaptive systems (CASs) with artificial/engineered CASs to build a framework and platform for ECAS. While this framework focuses on the critical factors of an engineered system, it also enables one to synthetically employ engineering and mathematical models to analyze and measure complexity in such systems. In this way concepts of complex systems science are adapted to management science and system of systems engineering. In particular an integrated consumer-based optimization and agent-based modeling (ABM) platform is presented that enables managers to predict and partially control patterns of behaviors in ECASs. Demonstrated on the U.S. electricity markets, ABM is integrated with normative and subjective decision behavior recommended by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) and Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC). The approach integrates social networks, social science, complexity theory, and diffusion theory. Furthermore, it has unique and significant contribution in exploring and representing concrete managerial insights for ECASs and offering new optimized actions and modeling paradigms in agent-based simulation.
ContributorsHaghnevis, Moeed (Author) / Askin, Ronald G. (Thesis advisor) / Armbruster, Dieter (Thesis advisor) / Mirchandani, Pitu (Committee member) / Wu, Tong (Committee member) / Hedman, Kory (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2013
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Description
This research develops heuristics for scheduling electric power production amid uncertainty. Reliability is becoming more difficult to manage due to growing uncertainty from renewable resources. This challenge is compounded by the risk of resource outages, which can occur any time and without warning. Stochastic optimization is a promising tool but

This research develops heuristics for scheduling electric power production amid uncertainty. Reliability is becoming more difficult to manage due to growing uncertainty from renewable resources. This challenge is compounded by the risk of resource outages, which can occur any time and without warning. Stochastic optimization is a promising tool but remains computationally intractable for large systems. The models used in industry instead schedule for the forecast and withhold generation reserve for scenario response, but they are blind to how this reserve may be constrained by network congestion. This dissertation investigates more effective heuristics to improve economics and reliability in power systems where congestion is a concern.

Two general approaches are developed. Both approximate the effects of recourse decisions without actually solving a stochastic model. The first approach procures more reserve whenever approximate recourse policies stress the transmission network. The second approach procures reserve at prime locations by generalizing the existing practice of reserve disqualification. The latter approach is applied for feasibility and is later extended to limit scenario costs. Testing demonstrates expected cost improvements around 0.5%-1.0% for the IEEE 73-bus test case, which can translate to millions of dollars per year even for modest systems. The heuristics developed in this dissertation perform somewhere between established deterministic and stochastic models: providing an economic benefit over current practices without substantially increasing computational times.
ContributorsLyon, Joshua Daniel (Author) / Zhang, Muhong (Thesis advisor) / Hedman, Kory W (Thesis advisor) / Askin, Ronald G. (Committee member) / Mirchandani, Pitu (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2015
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Description
A good production schedule in a semiconductor back-end facility is critical for the on time delivery of customer orders. Compared to the front-end process that is dominated by re-entrant product flows, the back-end process is linear and therefore more suitable for scheduling. However, the production scheduling of the back-end process

A good production schedule in a semiconductor back-end facility is critical for the on time delivery of customer orders. Compared to the front-end process that is dominated by re-entrant product flows, the back-end process is linear and therefore more suitable for scheduling. However, the production scheduling of the back-end process is still very difficult due to the wide product mix, large number of parallel machines, product family related setups, machine-product qualification, and weekly demand consisting of thousands of lots. In this research, a novel mixed-integer-linear-programming (MILP) model is proposed for the batch production scheduling of a semiconductor back-end facility. In the MILP formulation, the manufacturing process is modeled as a flexible flow line with bottleneck stages, unrelated parallel machines, product family related sequence-independent setups, and product-machine qualification considerations. However, this MILP formulation is difficult to solve for real size problem instances. In a semiconductor back-end facility, production scheduling usually needs to be done every day while considering updated demand forecast for a medium term planning horizon. Due to the limitation on the solvable size of the MILP model, a deterministic scheduling system (DSS), consisting of an optimizer and a scheduler, is proposed to provide sub-optimal solutions in a short time for real size problem instances. The optimizer generates a tentative production plan. Then the scheduler sequences each lot on each individual machine according to the tentative production plan and scheduling rules. Customized factory rules and additional resource constraints are included in the DSS, such as preventive maintenance schedule, setup crew availability, and carrier limitations. Small problem instances are randomly generated to compare the performances of the MILP model and the deterministic scheduling system. Then experimental design is applied to understand the behavior of the DSS and identify the best configuration of the DSS under different demand scenarios. Product-machine qualification decisions have long-term and significant impact on production scheduling. A robust product-machine qualification matrix is critical for meeting demand when demand quantity or mix varies. In the second part of this research, a stochastic mixed integer programming model is proposed to balance the tradeoff between current machine qualification costs and future backorder costs with uncertain demand. The L-shaped method and acceleration techniques are proposed to solve the stochastic model. Computational results are provided to compare the performance of different solution methods.
ContributorsFu, Mengying (Author) / Askin, Ronald G. (Thesis advisor) / Zhang, Muhong (Thesis advisor) / Fowler, John W (Committee member) / Pan, Rong (Committee member) / Sen, Arunabha (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2011
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Description
Surgery is one of the most important functions in a hospital with respect to operational cost, patient flow, and resource utilization. Planning and scheduling the Operating Room (OR) is important for hospitals to improve efficiency and achieve high quality of service. At the same time, it is a complex task

Surgery is one of the most important functions in a hospital with respect to operational cost, patient flow, and resource utilization. Planning and scheduling the Operating Room (OR) is important for hospitals to improve efficiency and achieve high quality of service. At the same time, it is a complex task due to the conflicting objectives and the uncertain nature of surgeries. In this dissertation, three different methodologies are developed to address OR planning and scheduling problem. First, a simulation-based framework is constructed to analyze the factors that affect the utilization of a catheterization lab and provide decision support for improving the efficiency of operations in a hospital with different priorities of patients. Both operational costs and patient satisfaction metrics are considered. Detailed parametric analysis is performed to provide generic recommendations. Overall it is found the 75th percentile of process duration is always on the efficient frontier and is a good compromise of both objectives. Next, the general OR planning and scheduling problem is formulated with a mixed integer program. The objectives include reducing staff overtime, OR idle time and patient waiting time, as well as satisfying surgeon preferences and regulating patient flow from OR to the Post Anesthesia Care Unit (PACU). Exact solutions are obtained using real data. Heuristics and a random keys genetic algorithm (RKGA) are used in the scheduling phase and compared with the optimal solutions. Interacting effects between planning and scheduling are also investigated. Lastly, a multi-objective simulation optimization approach is developed, which relaxes the deterministic assumption in the second study by integrating an optimization module of a RKGA implementation of the Non-dominated Sorting Genetic Algorithm II (NSGA-II) to search for Pareto optimal solutions, and a simulation module to evaluate the performance of a given schedule. It is experimentally shown to be an effective technique for finding Pareto optimal solutions.
ContributorsLi, Qing (Author) / Fowler, John W (Thesis advisor) / Mohan, Srimathy (Thesis advisor) / Gopalakrishnan, Mohan (Committee member) / Askin, Ronald G. (Committee member) / Wu, Teresa (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2010