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- Member of: Theses and Dissertations
Description
Chinese activists came forth in unprecedented numbers to compete as independent candidates in the 2011-12 local people's congress elections throughout China, directly challenging the ruling Chinese Communist Party within the electoral arena. In response, the government threatened, harassed and obstructed the campaigns of these candidates, and as a result only a handful of independent candidates made it onto the official ballots, let alone win the elections. Despite their lack of success, independent candidates have been promoted by media sources as the latest movement with the potential to bring about democratic reform within China. However, independent candidates as a collective have not been sufficiently analyzed in order to determine the extent of these candidates' shared desire for democratic reform or their powers to effect such reform. Therefore, within the theoretical framework of electoral authoritarianism and utilizing a single-case, exploratory case study, this thesis explores the potential of the 2011-12 independent candidate movement to initiate democratic reform in China. Relying upon the statements of the candidates as reported by English-language news media, I create a typology of the movement and examine the candidates' goals and motives, as well as their interactions with the local people's congresses and the Chinese Communist Party, in hopes of revealing a clearer picture of the balance of power between the movement and the current regime. I conclude that due to the inability of independent candidates to win a significant number of seats, the limited power of deputies on local people's congress to effect structural change, and the lack of unity and organization among independent candidates, the 2011-12 independent candidate movement will not immediately result in structural democratic reform in China. Nevertheless, I contend that the increased awareness of electoral rights and democracy in China as a result the independent candidate movement will, in the coming years and decades, compel the ruling Chinese Communist Party to take significant steps to appease the ever-growing demand for political participation in China.
ContributorsFitch, Elizabeth Carol (Author) / El-Meehy, Asya (Thesis advisor) / Murphy-Erphani, Julie (Committee member) / Wang, Ning (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2012
Description
This dissertation seeks to show that the fate of emerging democracies is largely dependent upon the strategic behaviors of political militaries and their coup potential. Given the known issue of democratization's temporarily destabilizing effects, it first examines if such effects makes states vulnerable to coups. It finds clear evidence on democratization's destabilizing effects on coup risk. Such evidence is used to shed new light on the literature about the armed forces and coups in emerging democracies. To explain variation in the military's responses to democratization and consolidation against coup threats, it argues that how the armed forces were organized and controlled during the authoritarian periods influences whether emerging democracies are able to consolidate against coup risk. Second, it explores the declining coup risk and the trilateral relationship between Western democracy promotion, coup risk, and election violence in recently emerging electoral regimes, the so-called "illiberal democracies." It argues that vulnerability to Western leverage, coupled with an emphasis on multiparty elections, creates a political moral hazard problem for incumbents, permitting them to commit electoral violence during the emergence of mass electoral politics.
ContributorsCho, Yong Ouk (Author) / Sheldon, Simon (Thesis advisor) / David, Siroky (Committee member) / Wood, Reed (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2015
Description
Online social media is popular due to its real-time nature, extensive connectivity and a large user base. This motivates users to employ social media for seeking information by reaching out to their large number of social connections. Information seeking can manifest in the form of requests for personal and time-critical information or gathering perspectives on important issues. Social media platforms are not designed for resource seeking and experience large volumes of messages, leading to requests not being fulfilled satisfactorily. Designing frameworks to facilitate efficient information seeking in social media will help users to obtain appropriate assistance for their needs
and help platforms to increase user satisfaction.
Several challenges exist in the way of facilitating information seeking in social media. First, the characteristics affecting the user’s response time for a question are not known, making it hard to identify prompt responders. Second, the social context in which the user has asked the question has to be determined to find personalized responders. Third, users employ rhetorical requests, which are statements having the
syntax of questions, and systems assisting information seeking might be hindered from focusing on genuine questions. Fouth, social media advocates of political campaigns employ nuanced strategies to prevent users from obtaining balanced perspectives on
issues of public importance.
Sociological and linguistic studies on user behavior while making or responding to information seeking requests provides concepts drawing from which we can address these challenges. We propose methods to estimate the response time of the user for a given question to identify prompt responders. We compute the question specific social context an asker shares with his social connections to identify personalized responders. We draw from theories of political mobilization to model the behaviors arising from the strategies of people trying to skew perspectives. We identify rhetorical questions by modeling user motivations to post them.
and help platforms to increase user satisfaction.
Several challenges exist in the way of facilitating information seeking in social media. First, the characteristics affecting the user’s response time for a question are not known, making it hard to identify prompt responders. Second, the social context in which the user has asked the question has to be determined to find personalized responders. Third, users employ rhetorical requests, which are statements having the
syntax of questions, and systems assisting information seeking might be hindered from focusing on genuine questions. Fouth, social media advocates of political campaigns employ nuanced strategies to prevent users from obtaining balanced perspectives on
issues of public importance.
Sociological and linguistic studies on user behavior while making or responding to information seeking requests provides concepts drawing from which we can address these challenges. We propose methods to estimate the response time of the user for a given question to identify prompt responders. We compute the question specific social context an asker shares with his social connections to identify personalized responders. We draw from theories of political mobilization to model the behaviors arising from the strategies of people trying to skew perspectives. We identify rhetorical questions by modeling user motivations to post them.
ContributorsRanganath, Suhas (Author) / Liu, Huan (Thesis advisor) / Lai, Ying-Cheng (Thesis advisor) / Tong, Hanghang (Committee member) / Vaculin, Roman (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2017
Description
Gerrymandering is a central problem for many representative democracies. Formally, gerrymandering is the manipulation of spatial boundaries to provide political advantage to a particular group (Warf, 2006). The term often refers to political district design, where the boundaries of political districts are “unnaturally” manipulated by redistricting officials to generate durable advantages for one group or party. Since free and fair elections are possibly the critical part of representative democracy, it is important for this cresting tide to have scientifically validated tools. This dissertation supports a current wave of reform by developing a general inferential technique to “localize” inferential bias measures, generating a new type of district-level score. The new method relies on the statistical intuition behind jackknife methods to construct relative local indicators. I find that existing statewide indicators of partisan bias can be localized using this technique, providing an estimate of how strongly a district impacts statewide partisan bias over an entire decade. When compared to measures of shape compactness (a common gerrymandering detection statistic), I find that weirdly-shaped districts have no consistent relationship with impact in many states during the 2000 and 2010 redistricting plan. To ensure that this work is valid, I examine existing seats-votes modeling strategies and develop a novel method for constructing seats-votes curves. I find that, while the empirical structure of electoral swing shows significant spatial dependence (even in the face of spatial heterogeneity), existing seats-votes specifications are more robust than anticipated to spatial dependence. Centrally, this dissertation contributes to the much larger social aim to resist electoral manipulation: that individuals & organizations suffer no undue burden on political access from partisan gerrymandering.
ContributorsWolf, Levi (Author) / Rey, Sergio J (Thesis advisor) / Anselin, Luc (Committee member) / Fotheringham, A. Stewart (Committee member) / Tam Cho, Wendy K (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2017
Description
The 2016 election brought to light a political climate change in the United States and showed that questions scholars and pundits alike thought were answered perhaps had not been completely addressed. For some, the main question left unanswered was what would it take for a woman to become President of the United States? For others, the question of fear politics and the effects of social media were raised. Perhaps, the most intriguing was exactly who has influence over US elections? While these, and other, questions were asked in the context of the presidential election, they are also applicable to all political races. This dissertation examines how voter perceptions based on stereotypes and racial threat can affect Latina candidates’ prospects for election. Using an online experiment with 660 subjects and two elite interviews to test four hypotheses in order to determine whether or not racial resentment and stereotypes play a role in voter perceptions of Latina political candidates. The results show that racial resent and gender stereotypes play a role in voter perception of Latina political candidates. The results have theoretical and practical implications.
ContributorsHernandez, Samantha L. (Author) / Herrera, Richard (Thesis advisor) / Navarro, Sharon (Committee member) / Magaña, Lisa (Committee member) / Hoekstra, Valerie (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2018
Description
This project analyzes the tweets from the 2016 US Presidential Candidates' personal Twitter accounts. The goal is to define distinct patterns and differences between candidates and parties use of social media as a platform. The data spans the period of September 2015 to March 2016, which was during the primary races for the Republicans and Democrats. The overall purpose of this project is to contribute to finding new ways of driving value from social media, in particular Twitter.
ContributorsMortimer, Schuyler Kenneth (Author) / Simon, Alan (Thesis director) / Mousavi, Seyedreza (Committee member) / Department of Information Systems (Contributor) / Department of Supply Chain Management (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2016-05
Description
Since the passage of the Federal Election Campaign Act Amendments of 1974 (FECA) up until the most recent election in 2012, presidential campaign funds have risen over five hundred percent. While money has always been an essential and critical part of any political campaign, this rise has been drastic and continues to increase at a higher rate with every election cycle, even when the numbers are adjusted for inflation. The purpose of this paper is to examine this continuous increase in cost of presidential campaigns and to analyze the different pieces that have contributed to this rise. The main pieces include two Supreme Court cases: Buckley v. Valeo and Citizens United v. Federal Elections Commission, the rise and fall of federally regulated public funding and the various pieces of a presidential campaign that have considerably higher ticket prices with each election cycle. This paper first goes through both Buckley and Citizens, describing what each Supreme Court decision did and how they effected how much money can be spent in a presidential campaign and by whom. The paper then examines each presidential election since the passage of FECA in 1974 through the last election with President Barack Obama and Mitt Romney in 2012. Each election cycle is broken down to show how much money was spent by each candidate and the Republican and Democratic National Committees, whether or not the money was received through public funds or raised privately, and subsequently the percentages of where the money was spent. While the examination of the Court cases helps to understand why so much money can be donated and contributed directly to campaigns or spent on behalf of a presidential candidate, the breakdown of where the money is spent including advertising, travel, staff salaries etc. helps to show why a presidential campaign costs over five hundred percent more today than it did forty years ago. By understanding this increase, how it was caused and where the money is going, it is more feasible to comprehend whether or not campaign finance reform should be proposed and if so, how it should be brought about.
ContributorsColby, Mikaela Nicole (Author) / Critchlow, Donald (Thesis director) / Shair-Rosenfield, Sarah (Committee member) / School of Historical, Philosophical and Religious Studies (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2016-05
Description
Although smaller and more local elections could have implications more dramatic to an individual than larger district-, state-, and nation-wide elections do, very few citizens vote in them. Moreover, citizens are limited in procuring further information on candidates, issues, and the overall election when there are fewer sources of such information across various mediums. While existing literature on political communication and voter participation does not yet extend far enough to sufficiently address the most local aspects of media effects on elections, the political science field’s dominating frameworks would suggest that an increase in news media, social media, and ground mobilization tactics would increase civic engagement and voter participation. My research, which focuses on hyperlocal elections, both supports andrefutes certain elements of that suggestion. Based on surveys of potential voters in a university’s student government election and a school board election, interviews with two student government presidential candidates, and an analysis of social media engagement, my research compares three mass media platforms and two elections to characterize the effects of media on hyperlocal elections—that certain tactics have drastically different results on different populations. My research expands the body of media and politics knowledge to include hyperlocal elections, suggesting that civic engagement on the local levels require increased further study.
ContributorsRomanov, Andrew Samuilovich (Author) / Wells, David (Thesis director) / Brodie, Mark (Committee member) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor) / School of International Letters and Cultures (Contributor) / Department of English (Contributor) / Walter Cronkite School of Journalism and Mass Communication (Contributor) / School of Politics and Global Studies (Contributor)
Created2015-05
Description
In the 2016 Presidential Election, Republican candidate, Donald Trump, used a communication strategy in which he labeled his opponents and naysayers with negative nicknames. Throughout his campaign he labeled opponents as "Crazy Bernie," "Crooked Hillary," "Little Marco," "Lyin' Ted," "Low Energy Jeb" and "Goofy Elizabeth Warren." Donald Trump repeated these nicknames at rallies and over his social media platforms. Donald Trump was elected President in November 2016 and took office the following January. Did these nicknames that Donald Trump used resonate with voters? And if so, who did they resonate with the most? In order to research these questions, the U.S. eligible voting population was given the opportunity to complete a survey asking them a series of questions about choosing the word that best describes these politicians that Trump has labeled. They were also asked questions regarding what political party they are registered to and who they voted for in the 2016 Presidential Election. Results indicated that Trump voting respondents and registered Republican respondents felt the words Donald Trump used to label his opponents described those politicians best, in comparison to other groups and demographics. These findings demonstrate that the nicknames Donald Trump used during his campaign did resonate with certain groups of voters.
ContributorsBrewer, Jennifer Marie (Author) / Renzulli, Virgil (Thesis director) / Bovio, Sonia (Committee member) / Walter Cronkite School of Journalism and Mass Communication (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2018-05
Description
Political scientists have long recognized the importance of representation as being critical to the American form of government. This paper begins by establishing the theoretical basis for representational studies in political science. It then turns to the empirical question of measuring the degree to which legislators represent their constituents. While there have been comprehensive studies of representation among members of Congress, several practical difficulties have prevented similar studies at the state legislature level. Underlying measures of representation are the preferences of constituents and the representational behavior of legislators. This paper proposes two metrics, a modified Partisan Voting Index and the American Conservative Union State Legislative Ratings, to compare the district-level preferences with roll call voting behavior (a form of substantive representation) of the corresponding legislators. This methodology is then tested against data collected from the Arizona legislature, specifically incorporating election returns from 2012, 2014, and 2016, and votes taken during the 2017 and 2018 sessions of the legislature. The findings suggest a strong relationship between the partisan and ideological leaning of a state legislative district and how conservative or liberal a legislator’s voting record is, even when controlling for political party. Two special cases are also examined in the context of this data. First, the three legislative districts with a split delegation are analyzed and determined to have a moderating effect on representative behavior. Second, five mid-term vacancies are examined along with the process for filling a vacancy. The paper concludes with a discussion of how this line of research can better inform legislators and help constituents hold their elected officials to account.
ContributorsFairbanks, Austin Kyle (Author) / Herrera, Richard (Thesis director) / Thomson, Henry (Committee member) / School of Politics and Global Studies (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2019-05