Matching Items (14)
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- All Subjects: Industrial Engineering
- Creators: Sefair, Jorge
Description
The main objective of this research is to develop an integrated method to study emergent behavior and consequences of evolution and adaptation in engineered complex adaptive systems (ECASs). A multi-layer conceptual framework and modeling approach including behavioral and structural aspects is provided to describe the structure of a class of engineered complex systems and predict their future adaptive patterns. The approach allows the examination of complexity in the structure and the behavior of components as a result of their connections and in relation to their environment. This research describes and uses the major differences of natural complex adaptive systems (CASs) with artificial/engineered CASs to build a framework and platform for ECAS. While this framework focuses on the critical factors of an engineered system, it also enables one to synthetically employ engineering and mathematical models to analyze and measure complexity in such systems. In this way concepts of complex systems science are adapted to management science and system of systems engineering. In particular an integrated consumer-based optimization and agent-based modeling (ABM) platform is presented that enables managers to predict and partially control patterns of behaviors in ECASs. Demonstrated on the U.S. electricity markets, ABM is integrated with normative and subjective decision behavior recommended by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) and Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC). The approach integrates social networks, social science, complexity theory, and diffusion theory. Furthermore, it has unique and significant contribution in exploring and representing concrete managerial insights for ECASs and offering new optimized actions and modeling paradigms in agent-based simulation.
ContributorsHaghnevis, Moeed (Author) / Askin, Ronald G. (Thesis advisor) / Armbruster, Dieter (Thesis advisor) / Mirchandani, Pitu (Committee member) / Wu, Tong (Committee member) / Hedman, Kory (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2013
Description
Modern measurement schemes for linear dynamical systems are typically designed so that different sensors can be scheduled to be used at each time step. To determine which sensors to use, various metrics have been suggested. One possible such metric is the observability of the system. Observability is a binary condition determining whether a finite number of measurements suffice to recover the initial state. However to employ observability for sensor scheduling, the binary definition needs to be expanded so that one can measure how observable a system is with a particular measurement scheme, i.e. one needs a metric of observability. Most methods utilizing an observability metric are about sensor selection and not for sensor scheduling. In this dissertation we present a new approach to utilize the observability for sensor scheduling by employing the condition number of the observability matrix as the metric and using column subset selection to create an algorithm to choose which sensors to use at each time step. To this end we use a rank revealing QR factorization algorithm to select sensors. Several numerical experiments are used to demonstrate the performance of the proposed scheme.
ContributorsIlkturk, Utku (Author) / Gelb, Anne (Thesis advisor) / Platte, Rodrigo (Thesis advisor) / Cochran, Douglas (Committee member) / Renaut, Rosemary (Committee member) / Armbruster, Dieter (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2015
Description
Factory production is stochastic in nature with time varying input and output processes that are non-stationary stochastic processes. Hence, the principle quantities of interest are random variables. Typical modeling of such behavior involves numerical simulation and statistical analysis. A deterministic closure model leading to a second order model for the product density and product speed has previously been proposed. The resulting partial differential equations (PDE) are compared to discrete event simulations (DES) that simulate factory production as a time dependent M/M/1 queuing system. Three fundamental scenarios for the time dependent influx are studied: An instant step up/down of the mean arrival rate; an exponential step up/down of the mean arrival rate; and periodic variation of the mean arrival rate. It is shown that the second order model, in general, yields significant improvement over current first order models. Specifically, the agreement between the DES and the PDE for the step up and for periodic forcing that is not too rapid is very good. Adding diffusion to the PDE further improves the agreement. The analysis also points to fundamental open issues regarding the deterministic modeling of low signal-to-noise ratio for some stochastic processes and the possibility of resonance in deterministic models that is not present in the original stochastic process.
ContributorsWienke, Matthew (Author) / Armbruster, Dieter (Thesis advisor) / Jones, Donald (Committee member) / Platte, Rodrigo (Committee member) / Gardner, Carl (Committee member) / Ringhofer, Christian (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2015
Description
Project portfolio selection (PPS) is a significant problem faced by most organizations. How to best select the many innovative ideas that a company has developed to deploy in a proper and sustained manner with a balanced allocation of its resources over multiple time periods is one of vital importance to a company's goals. This dissertation details the steps involved in deploying a more intuitive portfolio selection framework that facilitates bringing analysts and management to a consensus on ongoing company efforts and buy into final decisions. A binary integer programming selection model that constructs an efficient frontier allows the evaluation of portfolios on many different criteria and allows decision makers (DM) to bring their experience and insight to the table when making a decision is discussed. A binary fractional integer program provides additional choices by optimizing portfolios on cost-benefit ratios over multiple time periods is also presented. By combining this framework with an `elimination by aspects' model of decision making, DMs evaluate portfolios on various objectives and ensure the selection of a portfolio most in line with their goals. By presenting a modeling framework to easily model a large number of project inter-dependencies and an evolutionary algorithm that is intelligently guided in the search for attractive portfolios by a beam search heuristic, practitioners are given a ready recipe to solve big problem instances to generate attractive project portfolios for their organizations. Finally, this dissertation attempts to address the problem of risk and uncertainty in project portfolio selection. After exploring the selection of portfolios based on trade-offs between a primary benefit and a primary cost, the third important dimension of uncertainty of outcome and the risk a decision maker is willing to take on in their quest to select the best portfolio for their organization is examined.
ContributorsSampath, Siddhartha (Author) / Gel, Esma (Thesis advisor) / Fowler, Jown W (Thesis advisor) / Kempf, Karl G. (Committee member) / Pan, Rong (Committee member) / Sefair, Jorge (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2018
Description
The shift in focus of manufacturing systems to high-mix and low-volume production poses a challenge to both efficient scheduling of manufacturing operations and effective assessment of production capacity. This thesis considers the problem of scheduling a set of jobs that require machine and worker resources to complete their manufacturing operations. Although planners in manufacturing contexts typically focus solely on machines, schedules that only consider machining requirements may be problematic during implementation because machines need skilled workers and cannot run unsupervised. The model used in this research will be beneficial to these environments as planners would be able to determine more realistic assignments and operation sequences to minimize the total time required to complete all jobs. This thesis presents a mathematical formulation for concurrent scheduling of machines and workers that can optimally schedule a set of jobs while accounting for changeover times between operations. The mathematical formulation is based on disjunctive constraints that capture the conflict between operations when trying to schedule them to be performed by the same machine or worker. An additional formulation extends the previous one to consider how cross-training may impact the production capacity and, for a given budget, provide training recommendations for specific workers and operations to reduce the makespan. If training a worker is advantageous to increase production capacity, the model recommends the best time window to complete it such that overlaps with work assignments are avoided. It is assumed that workers can perform tasks involving the recently acquired skills as soon as training is complete. As an alternative to the mixed-integer programming formulations, this thesis provides a math-heuristic approach that fixes the order of some operations based on Largest Processing Time (LPT) and Shortest Processing Time (SPT) procedures, while allowing the exact formulation to find the optimal schedule for the remaining operations. Computational experiments include the use of the solution for the no-training problem as a starting feasible solution to the training problem. Although the models provided are general, the manufacturing of Printed Circuit Boards are used as a case study.
ContributorsAdams, Katherine Bahia (Author) / Sefair, Jorge (Thesis advisor) / Askin, Ronald (Thesis advisor) / Webster, Scott (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2019
Description
Every year, millions of guests visit theme parks internationally. Within that massive population, accidents and emergencies are bound to occur. Choosing the correct location for emergency responders inside of the park could mean the difference between life and death. In an effort to provide the utmost safety for the guests of a park, it is important to make the best decision when selecting the location for emergency response crews. A theme park is different from a regular residential or commercial area because the crowds and shows block certain routes, and they change throughout the day. We propose an optimization model that selects staging locations for emergency medical responders in a theme park to maximize the number of responses that can occur within a pre-specified time. The staging areas are selected from a candidate set of restricted access locations where the responders can store their equipment. Our solution approach considers all routes to access any park location, including areas that are unavailable to a regular guest. Theme parks are a highly dynamic environment. Because special events occurring in the park at certain hours (e.g., parades) might impact the responders' travel times, our model's decisions also include the time dimension in the location and re-location of the responders. Our solution provides the optimal location of the responders for each time partition, including backup responders. When an optimal solution is found, the model is also designed to consider alternate optimal solutions that provide a more balanced workload for the crews.
ContributorsLivingston, Noah Russell (Author) / Sefair, Jorge (Thesis director) / Askin, Ronald (Committee member) / Industrial, Systems and Operations Engineering Program (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2017-12
Description
Commuting is a significant cost in time and in travel expenses for working individuals and a major contributor to emissions in the United States. This project focuses on increasing the efficiency of an intersection through the use of "light metering." Light metering involves a series of lights leading up to an intersection forcing cars to stop further away from the final intersection in smaller queues instead of congregating in a large queue before the final intersection. The simulation software package AnyLogic was used to model a simple two-lane intersection with and without light metering. It was found that light metering almost eliminates start-up delay by preventing a long queue to form in front of the modeled intersection. Shorter queue lengths and reduction in the start-up delays prevents cycle failure and significantly reduces the overall delay for the intersection. However, frequent deceleration and acceleration for a few of the cars occurs before each light meter. This solution significantly reduces the traffic density before the intersection and the overall delay but does not appear to be a better emission alternative due to an increase in acceleration. Further research would need to quantify the difference in emissions for this model compared to a standard intersection.
ContributorsGlavin, Erin (Author) / Pavlic, Theodore (Thesis director) / Sefair, Jorge (Committee member) / Industrial, Systems and Operations Engineering Program (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2018-05
Description
Assembly lines are low-cost production systems that manufacture similar finished units in large quantities. Manufacturers utilize mixed-model assembly lines to produce customized items that are not identical but share some general features in response to consumer needs. To maintain efficiency, the aim is to find the best feasible option to balance the lines efficiently; allocating each task to a workstation to satisfy all restrictions and fulfill all operational requirements in such a way that the line has the highest performance and maximum throughput. The work to be done at each workstation and line depends on the precise product configuration and is not constant across all models. This research seeks to enhance the subject of assembly line balancing by establishing a model for creating the most efficient assembly system. Several realistic characteristics are included into efficient optimization techniques and mathematical models to provide a more comprehensive model for building assembly systems. This involves analyzing the learning growth by task, employing parallel line designs, and configuring mixed models structure under particular constraints and criteria. This dissertation covers a gap in the literature by utilizing some exact and approximation modeling approaches. These methods are based on mathematical programming techniques, including integer and mixed integer models and heuristics. In this dissertation, heuristic approximations are employed to address problem-solving challenges caused by the problem's combinatorial complexity. This study proposes a model that considers learning curve effects and dynamic demand. This is exemplified in instances of a new assembly line, new employees, introducing new products or simply implementing engineering change orders. To achieve a cost-based optimal solution, an integer mathematical formulation is proposed to minimize the production line's total cost under the impact of learning and demand fulfillment. The research further creates approaches to obtain a comprehensive model in the case of single and mixed models for parallel lines systems. Optimization models and heuristics are developed under various aspects, such as cycle times by line and tooling considerations. Numerous extensions are explored effectively to analyze the cost impact under certain constraints and implications. The implementation results demonstrate that the proposed models and heuristics provide valuable insights.
ContributorsAlhomaidi, Esam (Author) / Askin, Ronald G (Thesis advisor) / Yan, Hao (Committee member) / Iquebal, Ashif (Committee member) / Sefair, Jorge (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2023
Description
The rank aggregation problem has ubiquitous applications in operations research, artificial intelligence, computational social choice, and various other fields. Generally, rank aggregation is utilized whenever a set of judges (human or non-human) express their preferences over a set of items, and it is necessary to find a consensus ranking that best represents these preferences collectively. Many real-world instances of this problem involve a very large number of items, include ties, and/or contain partial information, which brings a challenge to decision-makers. This work makes several contributions to overcoming these challenges. Most attention on this problem has focused on an NP-hard distance-based variant known as Kemeny aggregation, for which solution approaches with provable guarantees that can handle difficult large-scale instances remain elusive. Firstly, this work introduces exact and approximate methodologies inspired by the social choice foundations of the problem, namely the Condorcet criterion, to decompose the problem. To deal with instances where exact partitioning does not yield many subsets, it proposes Approximate Condorcet Partitioning, which is a scalable solution technique capable of handling large-scale instances while providing provable guarantees. Secondly, this work delves into the rank aggregation problem under the generalized Kendall-tau distance, which contains Kemeny aggregation as a special case. This new problem provides a robust and highly-flexible framework for handling ties. First, it derives exact and heuristic solution methods for the generalized problem. Second, it introduces a novel social choice property that encloses existing variations of the Condorcet criterion as special cases. Thirdly, this work focuses on top-k list aggregation. Top-k lists are a special form of item orderings wherein out of n total items only a small number of them, k, are explicitly ordered. Top-k lists are being increasingly utilized in various fields including recommendation systems, information retrieval, and machine learning. This work introduces exact and inexact methods for consolidating a collection of heterogeneous top- lists. Furthermore, the strength of the proposed exact formulations is analyzed from a polyhedral point of view. Finally, this work identifies the top-100 U.S. universities by consolidating four prominent university rankings to assess the computational implications of this problem.
ContributorsAkbari, Sina (Author) / Escobedo, Adolfo (Thesis advisor) / Byeon, Geunyeong (Committee member) / Sefair, Jorge (Committee member) / Wu, Shin-Yi (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2022
Description
The stable and efficient operation of the transmission network is fundamental to the power system’s ability to deliver electricity reliably and cheaply. As average temperatures continue to rise, the ability of the transmission network to meet demand is diminished. Higher temperatures lead to congestion by reducing thermal limits of lines while simultaneously reducing generation potential. Furthermore, they contribute to the growing frequency and ferocity of devasting weather events. Due to prohibitive costs and limited real estate for building new lines, it is necessary to consider flexible investment options (e.g., transmission switching, capacity expansion, etc.) to improve the functionality and efficiency of the grid. Increased flexibility, however, requires many discrete choices, rendering fully accurate models intractable. This dissertation derives several classes of structural valid inequalities and employs them to accelerate the solution process for each of the proposed expansion planning problems. The valid inequalities leverage the variability of the cumulative capacity-reactance products of parallel simple paths in networks with flexible topology, such as those found in transmission expansion planning problems. Ongoing changes to the climate and weather will have vastly differing impacts a regional and local scale, yet these effects are difficult to predict. This dissertation models the long-term and short-term uncertainty of rising temperatures and severe weather events on transmission network components in both stochastic and robust mixed-integer linear programming frameworks. It develops a novel test case constructed from publicly available data on the Arizona transmission network. The models and test case are used to test the impacts of climate and weather on regional expansion decisions.
ContributorsSkolfield, Joshua Kyle (Author) / Escobedo, Adolfo R (Thesis advisor) / Sefair, Jorge (Committee member) / Mirchandani, Pitu (Committee member) / Hedman, Mojdeh (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2022