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Mathematics of climate change and mosquito-borne disease dynamics

Description
The role of climate change, as measured in terms of changes in the climatology of geophysical variables (such as temperature and rainfall), on the global distribution and burden of vector-borne diseases (VBDs) remains a subject of considerable debate. This dissertation attempts to contribute to this debate via the use of…

The role of climate change, as measured in terms of changes in the climatology of geophysical variables (such as temperature and rainfall), on the global distribution and burden of vector-borne diseases (VBDs) remains a subject of considerable debate. This dissertation attempts to contribute to this debate via the use of mathematical (compartmental) modeling and statistical data analysis. In particular, the objective is to find suitable values and/or ranges of the climate variables considered (typically temperature and rainfall) for maximum vector abundance and consequently, maximum transmission intensity of the disease(s) they cause.

Motivated by the fact that understanding the dynamics of disease vector is crucial to understanding the transmission and control of the VBDs they cause, a novel weather-driven deterministic model for the population biology of the mosquito is formulated and rigorously analyzed. Numerical simulations, using relevant weather and entomological data for Anopheles mosquito (the vector for malaria), show that maximum mosquito abundance occurs when temperature and rainfall values lie in the range [20-25]C and [105-115] mm, respectively.

The Anopheles mosquito ecology model is extended to incorporate human dynamics. The resulting weather-driven malaria transmission model, which includes many of the key aspects of malaria (such as disease transmission by asymptomatically-infectious humans, and enhanced malaria immunity due to repeated exposure), was rigorously analyzed. The model which also incorporates the effect of diurnal temperature range (DTR) on malaria transmission dynamics shows that increasing DTR shifts the peak temperature value for malaria transmission from 29C (when DTR is 0C) to about 25C (when DTR is 15C).

Finally, the malaria model is adapted and used to study the transmission dynamics of chikungunya, dengue and Zika, three diseases co-circulating in the Americas caused by the same vector (Aedes aegypti). The resulting model, which is fitted using data from Mexico, is used to assess a few hypotheses (such as those associated with the possible impact the newly-released dengue vaccine will have on Zika) and the impact of variability in climate variables on the dynamics of the three diseases. Suitable temperature and rainfall ranges for the maximum transmission intensity of the three diseases are obtained.
ContributorsOkuneye, Kamaldeen O (Author) / Gumel, Abba B (Thesis advisor) / Kuang, Yang (Committee member) / Smith, Hal (Committee member) / Thieme, Horst (Committee member) / Nagy, John (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2018
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Flight Performance Under Temperature Extremes of Thermally Evolved Drosophila Melanogaster

Description
Species survive by adapting to what is demanded by their environment. In constant and fluctuating environments, specialist and generalists should be favored, respectively. However, the costs and benefits of adaptation can depend on a variety of factors that alter the intensity of the specialist-generalist trade-off. We examined flight performance to…

Species survive by adapting to what is demanded by their environment. In constant and fluctuating environments, specialist and generalists should be favored, respectively. However, the costs and benefits of adaptation can depend on a variety of factors that alter the intensity of the specialist-generalist trade-off. We examined flight performance to determine how well flies that evolved in constant and fluctuating temperatures acclimated to hot and cold temperatures. We predicted that flies would perform best at temperatures most similar to the ones the flies evolved at. Best performance was found when rearing and testing temperatures aligned with the temperature at which a genotype had evolved, with the generalist sharing the best and worst performance combination with the constant thermally evolved flies. Interestingly, evolved and reared temperatures had equal impact on flight performance. It was also observed that rearing at 25°C resulted in flies with the best fitness. These results contribute to the specialist-generalist theory and the idea that long term cold development is restricting in terms of range for thermal performance.
ContributorsLe Vinh Thuy, Jacqueline (Author) / Angilletta, Michael (Thesis director) / VandenBrooks, John (Committee member) / Czarnoleski, Marcin (Committee member) / School of Molecular Sciences (Contributor) / Economics Program in CLAS (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2016-05

Flight performance and thermal tolerance of flies acclimated to hypoxia or hyperoxia

Description
Animals are thought to die at high temperatures because proteins and cell membranes lose their structural integrity. Alternatively, a newer hypothesis (the oxygen and capacity limitation of thermal tolerance, or OCLTT) states that death occurs because oxygen supply becomes limited at high temperatures. Consequently, animals exposed to hypoxia are more…

Animals are thought to die at high temperatures because proteins and cell membranes lose their structural integrity. Alternatively, a newer hypothesis (the oxygen and capacity limitation of thermal tolerance, or OCLTT) states that death occurs because oxygen supply becomes limited at high temperatures. Consequently, animals exposed to hypoxia are more sensitive to heating than those exposed to normoxia or hyperoxia. We hypothesized that animals raised in hypoxia would acclimate to the low oxygen supply, thereby making them less sensitive to heating. Such acclimation would be expressed as greater heat tolerance and better flight performance in individuals raised at lower oxygen concentrations. We raised flies (Drosophila melanogaster) from eggs to adults under oxygen concentrations ranging from 10% to 31% and measured two aspects of thermal tolerance: 1) the time required for flies to lose motor function at 39.5°C at normoxia (21%), referred to as knock-down time, and 2) flight performance at 37°, 39°, or 41°C and 12%, 21%, or 31% oxygen. Contrary to our prediction, flies from all treatments had the same knock-down time. However, flight performance at hypoxia was greatest for flies raised in hypoxia, but flight performance at normoxia and hyperoxia was greatest for flies raised at hyperoxia. Thus, flight performance acclimated to oxygen supply during development, but heat tolerance did not. Our data does not support the OCLTT hypothesis, but instead supports the beneficial acclimation hypothesis, which proposes that acclimation improves the function of an organism during environmental change.
ContributorsShiehzadegan, Shayan (Co-author) / VadenBrooks, John (Co-author) / Le, Jackie (Co-author) / Smith, Colton (Co-author) / Shiehzadegan, Shima (Co-author) / Angilletta, Michael (Co-author, Thesis director) / VandenBrooks, John (Committee member) / Klok, C. J. (Committee member) / School of Life Sciences (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2016-05
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Using Lactate as a Measure of Developmental Metabolism in Drosophila melanogaster

Description

Lactate is a commonly known biochemical that is usually produced under anaerobic conditions. This makes it a useful marker for examining the possibility that Drosophila melanogaster undergoes natural hypoxic states during development due to the rate of growth. To analyze this observation and its potential for explaining developmental changes, a…

Lactate is a commonly known biochemical that is usually produced under anaerobic conditions. This makes it a useful marker for examining the possibility that Drosophila melanogaster undergoes natural hypoxic states during development due to the rate of growth. To analyze this observation and its potential for explaining developmental changes, a lactate assay was used to quantify lactate produced across time points in the third larval instar and across early adulthood. Lactate assay results showed near-zero lactate levels for both larvae and adults. There were confounding factors present in larval lactate assays which made analysis difficult. However, the results of the adult lactate assays seem to indicate an inability to produce large amounts of lactate regardless of time point in adulthood, suggesting that adults do not naturally experience hypoxia during or after eclosion.
ContributorsWiertek, Marcellina Emilia (Author) / Harrison, Jon (Thesis director) / Angilletta, Michael (Committee member) / Talal, Stav (Committee member) / Historical, Philosophical & Religious Studies (Contributor) / Historical, Philosophical & Religious Studies, Sch (Contributor) / School of Life Sciences (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2021-05
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Plasmodium Cost of Resistance and Life Stage Development within the Mosquito Vector

Description

Hundreds of thousands of people die annually from malaria; a protozoan of the genus Plasmodium is responsible for this mortality. The Plasmodium parasite undergoes several life stages within the mosquito vector, the transition between which require passage across the lumen of the mosquito midgut. It has been observed that in…

Hundreds of thousands of people die annually from malaria; a protozoan of the genus Plasmodium is responsible for this mortality. The Plasmodium parasite undergoes several life stages within the mosquito vector, the transition between which require passage across the lumen of the mosquito midgut. It has been observed that in about 15% of parasites that develop ookinetes in the mosquito abdomen, sporozoites never develop in the salivary glands, indicating that passage across the midgut lumen is a significant barrier in parasite development (Gamage-Mendis et al., 1993). We aim to investigate a possible correlation between passage through the midgut lumen and drug-resistance trends in Plasmodium falciparum parasites. This study contains a total of 1024 Anopheles mosquitoes: 187 Anopheles gambiae and 837 Anopheles funestus samples collected in high malaria transmission areas of Mozambique between March and June of 2016. Sanger sequencing will be used to determine the prevalence of known resistance alleles for anti-malarial drugs: chloroquine resistance transporter (pfcrt), multidrug resistance (pfmdr1) gene, dihydropteroate synthase (pfdhps) and dihydrofolate reductase (pfdhfr). We compare prevalence of resistance between abdomen and head/thorax in order to determine whether drug resistant parasites are disproportionately hindered during their passage through the midgut lumen. A statistically significant difference between resistance alleles in the two studied body sections supports the efficacy of new anti-malarial gene surveillance strategies in areas of high malaria transmission.
ContributorsPhillips, Keeley Isabella (Author) / Huijben, Silvie (Thesis director) / Gile, Gillian (Committee member) / Young, Steven (Committee member) / School of Life Sciences (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2021-05
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Aedes aegypti Thermal Choice Experiment

Description
The non-native mosquito Aedes aegypti has become a common nuisance in Maricopa county. Associated with human settlement, Ae. aegypti is known to reproduce in standing water sources both indoors and outdoors, within vessels such as tires, flowerpots, and neglected swimming pools (Jansen & Beebe, 2010). Ae. aegypti and the related…

The non-native mosquito Aedes aegypti has become a common nuisance in Maricopa county. Associated with human settlement, Ae. aegypti is known to reproduce in standing water sources both indoors and outdoors, within vessels such as tires, flowerpots, and neglected swimming pools (Jansen & Beebe, 2010). Ae. aegypti and the related Ae. albopictus are the primary vectors of the arboviral diseases chikungunya, Zika, yellow fever and dengue. Ae. aegypti tends to blood feed multiple times per gonotrophic cycle (cycle of feeding and egg laying) which, alongside a preference for human blood and close association with human habitation, contributes to an increased risk of Ae. aegypti borne virus transmission (Scott & Takken, 2012). Between 2010-2017, 153 travel-associated cases of dengue were reported in the whole of Arizona (Rivera et al., 2020); while there have been no documented locally transmitted cases of Aedes borne diseases in Maricopa county, there are no apparent reasons why local transmission can’t occur in the future via local Aedes aegypti mosquitoes infected after feeding from travelling viremic hosts. Incidents of local dengue transmission in New York (Rivera et al., 2020) and Barcelona (European Center for Disease Control [ECDC], 2019) suggest that outbreaks of Aedes borne arbovirus’ can occur in regions more temperate than the current endemic range of Aedes borne diseases. Further, while the fact that Ae. aegypti eggs have a high mortality rate when exposed to cold temperatures limits the ability for Ae aegypti to establish stable breeding populations in temperate climates (Thomas, Obermayr, Fischer, Kreyling, & Beierkuhnlein, 2012), global increases in temperature will expand the possible ranges of Ae aegypti and Aedes borne diseases.
ContributorsHon, Ruiheng (Author) / Paaijmans, Krijn (Thesis director) / Bond, Angela (Committee member) / Angilletta, Michael (Committee member) / School of Molecular Sciences (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2020-05