Matching Items (19)

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Probabilistic Voting: An Addition to theDowns Two Party Voting Model

Description

This paper proposes that voter decision making is determined by more than just the policy positions adopted by the candidates in the election as proposed by Antony Downs (1957). Using a vector valued voting model proposed by William Foster (2014),

This paper proposes that voter decision making is determined by more than just the policy positions adopted by the candidates in the election as proposed by Antony Downs (1957). Using a vector valued voting model proposed by William Foster (2014), voter behavior can be described by a mathematical model. Voters assign scores to candidates based on both policy and non-policy considerations, then voters then decide which candidate they support based on which has a higher candidate score. The traditional assumption that most of the population will vote is replaced by a function describing the probability of voting based on candidate scores assigned by individual voters. If the voter's likelihood of voting is not certain, but rather modelled by a sigmoid curve, it has radical implications on party decisions and actions taken during an election cycle. The model also includes a significant interaction term between the candidate scores and the differential between the scores which enhances the Downsian model. The thesis is proposed in a similar manner to Downs' original presentation, including several allegorical and hypothetical examples of the model in action. The results of the model reveal that single issue voters can have a significant impact on election outcomes, and that the weight of non-policy considerations is high enough that political parties would spend large sums of money on campaigning. Future research will include creating an experiment to verify the interaction terms, as well as adjusting the model for individual costs so that more empirical analysis may be completed.

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Date Created
2019-05

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Distributed Internet Voting with Authentication

Description

This project involves developing a cybersecure Internet voting framework that can be used to allow active duty military personnel to vote during a general election. This framework was developed with security at the forefront in an attempt to solve the

This project involves developing a cybersecure Internet voting framework that can be used to allow active duty military personnel to vote during a general election. This framework was developed with security at the forefront in an attempt to solve the most common issues that Internet voting solutions face. During the course of this project the registration phase of the framework was addressed and a solution was developed. The Distributed Internet Voting with Authentication system (DIVA) is designed to use a web based application to collect data from a registering user and store it in a secure database. This data is then written onto to JavaCard for later use in authentication. This system allows for a user to become registered in the DIVA database for Internet voting.

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Date Created
2018-05

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In Defense of the Electoral College

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In this paper, I defend the Electoral College system used to elect the President of the United States against criticisms that the system should be more democratic. I first take a look at federal republican theory and the contemporary issues

In this paper, I defend the Electoral College system used to elect the President of the United States against criticisms that the system should be more democratic. I first take a look at federal republican theory and the contemporary issues which influenced and persuaded the Founding Fathers to adopt this theory \u2014 not only as the foundation of the presidential election system, but also as the foundation of the United States Constitution. I describe that the purpose of federal republicanism is to ensure that power is distributed such that no group of people is too powerful to oppress others. I then provide a basic description of the Electoral College and demonstrate how the system is not purely democratic. From here, I defend the Electoral College's partially undemocratic nature on the grounds that state representation is a fundamental part of federal republicanism. I subsequently address four issues alleged by critics concerning the Electoral College: discouraged voter participation, unrepresented state minorities, the creation of battleground states and safe states, and the entrenchment of the two-party system. With respect to discouraged voter participation, I argue that the issue is not unique to the Electoral College system. With respect to unrepresented state minorities, I argue that if states distribute College electors proportionally to give state minorities representation, it would strengthen national interests at the expense of state interests and hurt the federal system of government. With respect to battleground states and safe states, I argue that they do not cause presidential candidates to ignore voters any more than under a national popular vote system. And, with respect to the two- party system, I argue that it does little harm to representation because the Democratic and Republican parties are internally diverse. Finally, I use federal republican theory to challenge the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact (NPVIC) \u2014 a purely democratic solution to reform the Electoral College without Constitutional amendment \u2014 on the grounds that it would throw away state representation, eliminate the federal aspect of the election system, and face legal controversy.

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Date Created
2018-05

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An Analysis of the Motivations Behind Third Party Voting

Description

In this work we analyze just what makes the topic of third party voting so intriguing to voters and why it is different than voting for one of the major parties in American politics. First, we will discuss briefly the

In this work we analyze just what makes the topic of third party voting so intriguing to voters and why it is different than voting for one of the major parties in American politics. First, we will discuss briefly the history of politics in America and what makes it exciting. Next, we will outline some of the works by other political and economic professionals such as Hotelling, Lichtman and Rietz. Finally, using the framework described beforehand this paper will analyze the different stances that voters, candidates, and others involved in the political process of voting have regarding the topic of third party voting.

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Date Created
2017-05

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Situating Millennials' Political Attitudes and Low Electoral Participation: An Analysis of Young Americans' Civic Engagement and Voter Turnout

Description

Millennials turn out to vote at significantly lower rates than the rest of the population, sparking commentary on their apathy and lack of contributions to American society. This thesis attempts to paint an accurate description of why these trends have

Millennials turn out to vote at significantly lower rates than the rest of the population, sparking commentary on their apathy and lack of contributions to American society. This thesis attempts to paint an accurate description of why these trends have persisted in the past, and finds that there are many complex reasons that serve as explanations. Many of these reasons can be explained by an analysis of Millennials' characteristics and political attitudes, which research has found includes a prioritization of achievement and Independent political ideologies. Additionally, by differentiating between civic engagement and political engagement, data and research find that Millennials choose forms of civic participation over political participation as an active choice and alternative avenue for electoral participation. Ultimately, Millennials are disillusioned with the politically polarized landscape and are unable to navigate the saturated information environment to make confident voting decisions. The rest of the thesis explores organizations, campaigns, and potential reforms that attempt to turn out Millennials. A thorough evaluation of campaigns' and nonpartisan organizations' efforts reveal the best practices for reaching Millennials, which include prioritizing substantive policy discussions, implementing grassroots and bottom-up organizational strategies, and avoiding flashiness and pandering. Another clear area for potential reform is civic education, which is currently not prioritized in the public education system. Some education reforms that would be particularly effective at reversing these negative trends include allowing for political debate within the classroom, teaching civics through more vibrant and hands-on curriculum and directly highlighting and perpetuating the importance of voting in the classroom. This thesis evaluates these and many other potential policy reforms that will encourage Millennials' political engagement as they further enter into adulthood.

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Created

Date Created
2017-05

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The Demographics of Polling Places

Description

Elections in the United States are highly decentralized with vast powers given to the states to control laws surrounding voter registration, primary procedures, and polling places even in elections of federal officials. There are many individual factors that predict a

Elections in the United States are highly decentralized with vast powers given to the states to control laws surrounding voter registration, primary procedures, and polling places even in elections of federal officials. There are many individual factors that predict a person's likelihood of voting including race, education, and age. Historically disenfranchised groups are still disproportionately affected by restrictive voter registration and ID laws which can suppress their turnout. Less understood is how election-day polling place accessibility affects turnout. Absentee and early voting increase accessibility for all voters, but 47 states still rely on election-day polling places. I study how the geographic allocation of polling places and the number of voters assigned to each (polling place load) in Maricopa County, Arizona has affected turnout in primary and general elections between 2006 and 2016 while controlling for the demographics of voting precincts. This represents a significant data problem; voting precincts changed three times during the time studied and polling places themselves can change every election. To aid in analysis, I created a visualization that allows for the exploration of polling place load, precinct demographics, and polling place accessibility metrics in a map view of the county. I find through a spatial regression model that increasing the load on a polling place can decrease the election-day turnout and prohibitively large distances to the polling place have a similar effect. The effect is more pronounced during general elections and is present at varying levels during each of the 12 elections studied. Finally, I discuss how early voting options appear to have little positive effect on overall turnout and may in fact decrease it.

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Created

Date Created
2017-12

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The Effort to Mobilize Hispanic/ Latino Voters in Arizona Elections

Description

The shift in the cultural makeup of the U.S. population has peaked general curiosity on how growing minorities are going to influence society in the future. The Latino community is perhaps the most prevailing among these groups; however, the voter

The shift in the cultural makeup of the U.S. population has peaked general curiosity on how growing minorities are going to influence society in the future. The Latino community is perhaps the most prevailing among these groups; however, the voter turnout of this community had remained at constant rate for the previous elections. This research project examined to what extent Hispanic/Latino voter turnout and voting behavior in Arizona's Elections has been influenced by efforts of grassroots campaigns . The hypothesis is that if social campaigns are effective IN raising awareness and reaching out to the Latino community, then the voters will be more likely to cast their vote. Today, diversity is expected, and it is a given that all groups should be represented. However, despite the long way minority groups have come in U.S. politics, there is still a long road ahead to achieve the goal of having more minorities in positions of influence to impact policies and society as a whole.

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Date Created
2015-05

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Millennials' Voting Behavior: The Impact of Social Media

Description

Young voters are the future of the country, yet are disengaged and disinterested in politics, leading to low turnout rates. This paper focuses on the Millennial generation, which consists of adults ages 18 to 33, and at times, narrowly focuses

Young voters are the future of the country, yet are disengaged and disinterested in politics, leading to low turnout rates. This paper focuses on the Millennial generation, which consists of adults ages 18 to 33, and at times, narrowly focuses on the subset of college students. Since individuals should learn about the presidential candidates and the election before casting a vote, I analyze the similarities and differences between receiving election content through television news, a traditional source, compared to social media. Next, I examine the importance of political expression and political discussion, along with how millennials engaging in such activity on social media allows for a deeper level of engagement in elections than what was possible before the birth of social media. Thus, as opposed to focusing on the reasons milllennials shy away from politics, the purpose of the first three chapters is to highlight the potential benefits for using social media during presidential elections. Lastly, I analyze millennials' voting behaviors, particularly the generation's preference for liberal social values. Since we are currently in the 2016 U.S. presidential election season, the purpose of this chapter is to highlight current research regarding millennials' voting patterns, which should then be compared to the future 2016 general election studies. By analyzing consistent and divergent trends, researchers can further add to the discussion of millennials' political behavior. Although I dedicate a brief part to the 2016 presidential election in Chapters 2 through 4 to discuss how trends are similar or different from current research, the overall purpose of this paper is to inform readers about how millennials learn, engage, and participate in presidential elections.

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Date Created
2016-05

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Turning Non-Voters into Voters: A New Political Survey

Description

This paper puts forth an argument for a new form of political survey that is aimed towards those who have the ability to vote, but choose not to. First, I will explain the importance of voting. Second, I will outline

This paper puts forth an argument for a new form of political survey that is aimed towards those who have the ability to vote, but choose not to. First, I will explain the importance of voting. Second, I will outline the structure of the survey. Third, I will explain how current surveys are inadequate. I will go into detail on the methods by which people make the decision whether or not to vote, and will discuss some issues of pragmatism that will need to be answered for this survey to find success.

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Created

Date Created
2021-05

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The College Voting Experience: How Voter Suppression and Political Engagement Affects Student Turnout at Arizona State University

Description

The thesis analyzes the apathetic youth turnout myth and researches to see if voter suppression can explain the reason behind low youth turnout. This thesis is a study done with Arizona State University students to assess their level of voter

The thesis analyzes the apathetic youth turnout myth and researches to see if voter suppression can explain the reason behind low youth turnout. This thesis is a study done with Arizona State University students to assess their level of voter turnout, their levels of political engagement, and if they have experienced voter suppression. Respondents were also asked about the support given by ASU in terms of helping with the voting process. Results indicate that Arizona State students have high levels of political engagement, and that 1 in 5 ASU students have experienced voter suppression. Furthermore, ASU students on a whole are uncertain about the role ASU should play in supporting students with the voting process.

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Created

Date Created
2021-05