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- Creators: Barrett, The Honors College
Description
This paper investigates the effect of the mismatch between workers' skills and the job requirements on the aggregate output and the earnings distribution. It develops a labor market model in which workers of different skills are allocated across jobs with different skill requirements, and this allocation is distorted by various government regulations. The model is calibrated to match the features of the earnings distribution and the extent of the skill mismatch reported by The Organization for Economic Co-Operation and Development (OECD) for 2015. The model is then used to evaluate the economic outcomes of eliminating government regulations leading to skill mismatch. I find that such a change, despite an almost negligible effect on aggregate output, has quite a significant impact on the distribution of earnings. More formally, output increase by merely 0.045%, while wages allocated to routine workers increases by 1.77% and wages allocated to specialized workers reduced by 10.52%.
ContributorsHerring, Elizabeth Jan (Author) / Vereshchagina, Galina (Thesis director) / Douglas, Kacey (Committee member) / Department of Economics (Contributor) / W.P. Carey School of Business (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2018-05
Description
Yearly changes in the consumer price index are used to adjust social security benefits in order to keep the purchasing power of social security beneficiaries the same. Currently, social security benefits are adjusted using a fixed-weighted price index that reflects the purchasing patterns of workers. However, some believe that a price index that captures the spending habits of the elderly should adjust monthly social security benefits, while others argue that a chain-weighted price index is a more accurate indexation technique. This report finds that if an elderly or chain-weighted price index were implemented this year, there would not be a significant change in the projected insolvency of the social security trust fund, but there could be a substantial decrease in the social security trust fund's yearly cash-flow deficit. Therefore, changing the indexation of social security benefits should not be seen as a short-term solvency fix. Instead, adjusting monthly social security benefits should be about keeping the purchasing power of beneficiaries relatively the same.
ContributorsScobas, Peter Jonathan (Author) / Hobijn, Bart (Thesis director) / Smith, Kerry (Committee member) / Economics Program in CLAS (Contributor) / School of Sustainability (Contributor) / School of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2017-05
Description
Is there a rules-based explanation for the low interest rates and quantitative easing undertaken by the Federal Reserve following the Global Financial Crisis? The question is important as it pertains to the ongoing debate between rules-based and discretionary monetary policy. It is also important in the search for a Taylor Rule modification that can fill in the gap left by the breakdown of the original rule following the GFC. This paper examines a recent Taylor Rule modification proposed from James Bullard, President of the St. Louis Federal Reserve, to see if this modification can explain Fed actions following the GFC. The modification is analyzed in the same two ways that the original Taylor Rule was evaluated. Namely, this paper tests the economic logic of the modification as well as examines how well the rule's policy rate prescription has fit the actual federal funds rate over time. The economic logic of the modification is examined during recessions. The fit between the rule's policy rate prescription and the actual federal funds rate is examined using r-squared. I conclude that by changing the neutral rate in a Taylor-type rule, Bullard provides a credible policy rule that helps explain Fed behavior following the GFC.
ContributorsCowan, Daniel Jonathan (Author) / McDowell, John (Thesis director) / Templeton, Len (Committee member) / McDaniel, Cara (Committee member) / Department of Finance (Contributor) / Department of Economics (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2018-05
Description
This paper, titled “Factors of Economic Development and Implications for the Future” focuses on identifying historical factors that have impacted economic development and analyzing what changes may be important for the future. It uses studies done across the world in energy economics, economic development, economic policy, and more to identify important considerations for evaluating historical growth, as well as concerns for the future, particularly given the threat of climate change. Historically important papers, as well as newer insights both feature heavily. This literary review resulted in the finding that education, energy, trade, policy, institutions, endowments, and culture are all important factors for economic development. Endowments and institutions that arise from them are found to be the most important factor in explaining historical development. The paper also analyzes policy that the existing literature suggests could be beneficial for growth. Next, an analysis of factors that the literature identified as important for growth is carried out to assess which countries may have the highest potentials for future growth. The countries are ranked based upon a composite scoring system created from those factors. Countries in Central Asia feature heavily in the top ten entries, while many African countries narrowly miss out on the top ten but still rank relatively high. Together, the findings of both sections are used to discuss how economies have historically developed as well as possible policies to encourage future sustainable development. Both the literature and statistical findings suggest that for future growth promotion of strong institutions that promote property rights and economic growth will be important. They also suggest that coordinated energy policy to increase green technologies and decouple growth from emissions will be essential.
ContributorsJohnson, Evan Reeve (Author) / Hill, John (Thesis director) / Fried, Stephie (Committee member) / Economics Program in CLAS (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2020-05