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Description
The present essay addresses the epistemic difficulties involved in achieving consensus with respect to the Hayek-Keynes debate. In particular, it is argued that the debate cannot be settled on the basis of the observable evidence; or, more precisely, that the empirical implications of the theories of Hayek and Keynes are such that, regardless of what is observed, both of the theories can be interpreted as true, or at least, not falsified. Regardless of the evidence, both Hayek and Keynes can be interpreted as right. The underdetermination of theories by evidence is an old and ubiquitous problem in science. The present essay makes explicit the respects in which the empirical evidence underdetermines the choice between the theories of Hayek and Keynes. In particular, it is argued both that there are convenient responses one can offer that protect each theory from what appears to be threatening evidence (i.e., that the choice between the two theories is underdetermined in the holist sense) and that, for particular kinds of evidence, the two theories are empirically equivalent (i.e., with respect to certain kinds of evidence, the choice between the two theories is underdetermined in the contrastive sense).
ContributorsScheall, Scott (Author) / Creath, Richard (Thesis advisor) / Armendt, Brad (Committee member) / French, Peter (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2012
ContributorsDaval, Charles (Performer) / ASU Library. Music Library (Publisher)
Created2018-03-26
DescriptionThe purpose of this project is to explore the influence of folk music in guitar compositions by Manuel Ponce from 1923 to 1932. It focuses on his Tres canciones populares mexicanas and Tropico and Rumba.
ContributorsGarcia Santos, Arnoldo (Author) / Koonce, Frank (Thesis advisor) / Rogers, Rodney (Committee member) / Rotaru, Catalin (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2014
Description
This dissertation is a collection of two essays relating to the dynamic effects of taxation.
In the first chapter, I focus on a key challenge faced by tax reforms: their short-run
welfare consequences. I examine a consumption-based tax reform that, despite the long-run welfare gains it generates, causes the welfare for some groups such as retirees or the working poor to fall during transition between steady states. Using a life-cycle model with heterogeneous households, I show how to devise a transition path from the current U.S. federal tax system to a consumption-based tax system that improves the welfare of current generations as well as those who are born in the long-run steady state. In a nutshell, all households alive at the time of the policy change can choose when they want to switch to the new tax system, or whether they want to switch at all. I find that implementing a tax reform with this feature improves the welfare of 95% of the population in the short run, compared to less than 25% of population in the conventional case with no choice. It takes about 20 years for half of the population to pay their taxes under the new tax code.
In the second chapter, I study the aggregate consequences of the differential tax treatments of U.S. businesses focusing on the role of legal forms of organization. I develop an industry equilibrium model in which the organizational form is an endogenous choice.
This model incorporates the key trade-off that businesses face when choosing their legal forms: the tax treatment of the business income; the access to external capital, and the potential level and evolution of productivity over time.
The model is matched to the firm dynamic features of U.S. businesses and the contributing share of each legal form in total output. Using the model, I study revenue-neutral tax reforms in which legal forms receive the same tax treatments, and
I find that the incentives induced by tax structure for organizational form and external finance are both large. Relative to the benchmark economy, unifying the tax code for all legal forms, can lead to 8% increase in the aggregate output.
In the first chapter, I focus on a key challenge faced by tax reforms: their short-run
welfare consequences. I examine a consumption-based tax reform that, despite the long-run welfare gains it generates, causes the welfare for some groups such as retirees or the working poor to fall during transition between steady states. Using a life-cycle model with heterogeneous households, I show how to devise a transition path from the current U.S. federal tax system to a consumption-based tax system that improves the welfare of current generations as well as those who are born in the long-run steady state. In a nutshell, all households alive at the time of the policy change can choose when they want to switch to the new tax system, or whether they want to switch at all. I find that implementing a tax reform with this feature improves the welfare of 95% of the population in the short run, compared to less than 25% of population in the conventional case with no choice. It takes about 20 years for half of the population to pay their taxes under the new tax code.
In the second chapter, I study the aggregate consequences of the differential tax treatments of U.S. businesses focusing on the role of legal forms of organization. I develop an industry equilibrium model in which the organizational form is an endogenous choice.
This model incorporates the key trade-off that businesses face when choosing their legal forms: the tax treatment of the business income; the access to external capital, and the potential level and evolution of productivity over time.
The model is matched to the firm dynamic features of U.S. businesses and the contributing share of each legal form in total output. Using the model, I study revenue-neutral tax reforms in which legal forms receive the same tax treatments, and
I find that the incentives induced by tax structure for organizational form and external finance are both large. Relative to the benchmark economy, unifying the tax code for all legal forms, can lead to 8% increase in the aggregate output.
ContributorsRaei, Sepideh (Author) / Ventura, Gustavo (Thesis advisor) / Herrendorf, Berthold (Committee member) / Bick, Alexander (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2018
ContributorsKotronakis, Dimitris (Performer) / ASU Library. Music Library (Publisher)
Created2018-03-01
Description
This dissertation consists of two essays with a macroeconomic approach to economic development. These essays explore specific barriers that prevent economic agents from exploiting opportunities across regions or sectors in developing countries, and to what extent the observed allocations are inefficient outcomes or just an efficient response to economic fundamentals and technological constraints.
The first chapter is motivated by the fact that a prominent feature of cities in developing countries is the existence of slums: locations with low housing-quality and informal property rights. This paper focuses on the allocation of land across slums and formal housing, and emphasizes the role of living in central urban areas for the formation of slums. I build a quantitative spatial general equilibrium model to study the aggregate effects of anti-slum policies and use microdata from India for the quantitative implementation. According to my findings, demolishing slums in central urban areas leads to a decrease in welfare, aggregate labor productivity, and urban population. In contrast, decreasing formal housing distortions in India to the U.S. level increases the urban population share by 20% and labor productivity by 2.4%, and reduces the share of the urban population living in slums by 19%.
The second chapter is motivated by the fact that labor productivity gaps between rich and poor countries are much larger for agriculture than for non-agriculture. Using detailed data from Mexican farms, this paper shows that value added per worker is frequently over two times larger in cash crops than in staple crops, yet most farmers choose to produce staples. These findings imply that the agricultural productivity gap is actually a staple productivity gap and understanding production decisions of farmers is crucial to explain why labor productivity is so low in poor countries. This paper develops a general equilibrium framework in which subsistence consumption and interregional trade costs determine the efficient selection of farmers into types of crops. The quantitative results of the model imply that decreasing trade costs in Mexico to the U.S. level reduces the ratio of employment in staple to cash crops by 17% and increases agricultural labor productivity by 14%.
The first chapter is motivated by the fact that a prominent feature of cities in developing countries is the existence of slums: locations with low housing-quality and informal property rights. This paper focuses on the allocation of land across slums and formal housing, and emphasizes the role of living in central urban areas for the formation of slums. I build a quantitative spatial general equilibrium model to study the aggregate effects of anti-slum policies and use microdata from India for the quantitative implementation. According to my findings, demolishing slums in central urban areas leads to a decrease in welfare, aggregate labor productivity, and urban population. In contrast, decreasing formal housing distortions in India to the U.S. level increases the urban population share by 20% and labor productivity by 2.4%, and reduces the share of the urban population living in slums by 19%.
The second chapter is motivated by the fact that labor productivity gaps between rich and poor countries are much larger for agriculture than for non-agriculture. Using detailed data from Mexican farms, this paper shows that value added per worker is frequently over two times larger in cash crops than in staple crops, yet most farmers choose to produce staples. These findings imply that the agricultural productivity gap is actually a staple productivity gap and understanding production decisions of farmers is crucial to explain why labor productivity is so low in poor countries. This paper develops a general equilibrium framework in which subsistence consumption and interregional trade costs determine the efficient selection of farmers into types of crops. The quantitative results of the model imply that decreasing trade costs in Mexico to the U.S. level reduces the ratio of employment in staple to cash crops by 17% and increases agricultural labor productivity by 14%.
ContributorsRivera Padilla, Alberto (Author) / Schoellman, Todd K. (Thesis advisor) / Herrendorf, Berthold (Thesis advisor) / Ferraro, Domenico (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2019
Description
This dissertation consists of two parts. The first part is about understanding the mechanism behind female labor supply movement over economic development. Female labor force participation follows a U-shape pattern over per capita GDP cross nationally as well as within some countries. This paper questions if this pattern can be explained through sectoral, uneven technological movements both at market and at home. For that I develop a general equilibrium model with married couples and home production. I defined multiple sectors both at home and in the market. And by feeding the model with uneven technological growth, I observe how participation rate moves over development. My results indicate that a decrease in labor supply is mainly due to structural transformation. Meaning, a higher technology in a large sector causes prices to go up in that sector relative to other. Hence, labor allocated to this sector will decrease. Assuming this sector has a big market share, it will decrease the labor supply. Also, I found that the increase in female labor supply is mostly because of movement from home to market as a result of a higher technological growth in the market. The second part is about developing a methodology to verify and compute the existence of recursive equilibrium in dynamic economies with capital accumulation and elastic labor supply. The method I develop stems from the multi-step monotone mapping methodology which is based on monotone operators and solving a fixed point problem at each step. The methodology is not only useful for verifying and computing the recursive competitive equilibrium, but also useful for obtaining intra- and inter-temporal comparative dynamics. I provide robust intra-temporal comparative statics about how consumption and leisure decisions change in response to changes in capital stock and inverse marginal utility of consumption. I also provide inter-temporal equilibrium comparative dynamics about how recursive equilibrium consumption and investment respond to changes in discount factor and production externality. Different from intra-temporal comparative statics, these are not robust as they only apply to a subclass of equilibrium where investment level is monotone.
ContributorsDalkiran, Dilsat Tugba (Author) / Reffett, Kevin (Thesis advisor) / Datta, Manjira (Committee member) / Vereshchagina, Galina (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2018
Description
This paper investigates the effect of the mismatch between workers' skills and the job requirements on the aggregate output and the earnings distribution. It develops a labor market model in which workers of different skills are allocated across jobs with different skill requirements, and this allocation is distorted by various government regulations. The model is calibrated to match the features of the earnings distribution and the extent of the skill mismatch reported by The Organization for Economic Co-Operation and Development (OECD) for 2015. The model is then used to evaluate the economic outcomes of eliminating government regulations leading to skill mismatch. I find that such a change, despite an almost negligible effect on aggregate output, has quite a significant impact on the distribution of earnings. More formally, output increase by merely 0.045%, while wages allocated to routine workers increases by 1.77% and wages allocated to specialized workers reduced by 10.52%.
ContributorsHerring, Elizabeth Jan (Author) / Vereshchagina, Galina (Thesis director) / Douglas, Kacey (Committee member) / Department of Economics (Contributor) / W.P. Carey School of Business (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2018-05
Description
Yearly changes in the consumer price index are used to adjust social security benefits in order to keep the purchasing power of social security beneficiaries the same. Currently, social security benefits are adjusted using a fixed-weighted price index that reflects the purchasing patterns of workers. However, some believe that a price index that captures the spending habits of the elderly should adjust monthly social security benefits, while others argue that a chain-weighted price index is a more accurate indexation technique. This report finds that if an elderly or chain-weighted price index were implemented this year, there would not be a significant change in the projected insolvency of the social security trust fund, but there could be a substantial decrease in the social security trust fund's yearly cash-flow deficit. Therefore, changing the indexation of social security benefits should not be seen as a short-term solvency fix. Instead, adjusting monthly social security benefits should be about keeping the purchasing power of beneficiaries relatively the same.
ContributorsScobas, Peter Jonathan (Author) / Hobijn, Bart (Thesis director) / Smith, Kerry (Committee member) / Economics Program in CLAS (Contributor) / School of Sustainability (Contributor) / School of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2017-05
ContributorsDavin, Colin (Performer) / ASU Library. Music Library (Publisher)
Created2018-10-05