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- Creators: Barrett, The Honors College
Description
Every year, major companies buy Super Bowl advertisements (‘ads’) to fuel growth through the creation of brand awareness among a large, diverse audience. Although measuring the effectiveness of these marketing tactics is difficult, evaluating the abnormal returns (‘alpha’) of company stocks in the five days following the Super Bowl is effective because it provides insight into how actual returns compare to expected returns (calculated using data from the preceding 250 days). Analysis of a comprehensive sample, which includes all Super Bowl ads for public companies between the years 2015 and 2019, accurately demonstrates the relationship between these returns, illustrating the effectiveness of this type of marketing. To account for variation resulting from different inputs in different financial models, it is important to evaluate alpha based on several, reputable models of expected return to best capture the result. In this study, alpha will be analyzed using the Capital Asset Pricing Model (‘CAPM’) and the Fama and French 3 and 5 factor models. Although the ideology that increased marketing improves stock returns through brand awareness suggests a positive alpha, these models all indicate a statistically significant negative alpha for large, public companies who bought Super Bowl ads over the past five years. Therefore, actual returns, on average, are lower than projected returns for the evaluated five-day window following the Super Bowl. In examining alpha and statistical significance according to these financial models, this thesis will explore different market factors that may explain this counterintuitive result, primarily focusing on the investors’ opinions about this type of marketing. Therefore, in researching various discrepancies contributing to the negative alpha result, this study will accurately assess the effectiveness of Super Bowl advertising in terms of stock performance.
ContributorsWynne, Shannon Elizabeth (Author) / Budolfson, Arthur (Thesis director) / Smith, Geoffrey (Committee member) / Department of Finance (Contributor, Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2019-12
Description
Historically, advertising was best when it was informative because people did not look at advertising for entertainment. Stories, however, were helpful in selling products and promoting trials. Advertising has since evolved with society. Copious amounts of research still go into advertising but some old principles get left in the past. Some can be adapted to today’s digital world while others simply do not ring true anymore. Today, the best of the best showcase in the Super Bowl. This has proven to be very beneficial to those that dazzle and entertain viewers.
The USA Today Ad Meter has been used for decades to rank Super Bowl ads and can show us what works well. All ads that run during the Super Bowl are rated by thousands of viewers and then ranked based on average ratings. The Ad Meter is the most used tool to look at these ads and discern what viewers enjoyed seeing. Entertaining ads do very well on the Ad Meter while informational and simple ads often sink. The Ad Meter does a good job telling advertisers what worked but it does not tell us why it worked or what people want to see.
These entertaining ads do well on the ad meter because, according to the following research study, people prefer entertainment in Super Bowl advertising, whether the product is relevant or not. People are willing to watch a Super Bowl ad that is longer than a normal ad would be because they expect entertainment and the length allows for a story to develop. People also have a strong preference for humorous Super Bowl ads but the emotional/meaningful ads that make it into the top 5 are almost the exception to the rule because the results of the research performed here show very little preference for these ads. While the Super Bowl still seems to be a beneficial way to advertise, the price is a big barrier to entry. Luckily, digital culture gives smaller businesses the power to capture viewers in other ways. The study’s findings suggest that many younger participants often just watch Super Bowl ads on YouTube after the game. Younger people are also watching the Super Bowl less and becoming numb to scrolling through ads on social media. It is important, now more than ever, for advertisers to have attention grabbing tactics for a generation with such short attention spans. Advertisers need to follow the trends to keep up with social media, but it will be worth it.
The USA Today Ad Meter has been used for decades to rank Super Bowl ads and can show us what works well. All ads that run during the Super Bowl are rated by thousands of viewers and then ranked based on average ratings. The Ad Meter is the most used tool to look at these ads and discern what viewers enjoyed seeing. Entertaining ads do very well on the Ad Meter while informational and simple ads often sink. The Ad Meter does a good job telling advertisers what worked but it does not tell us why it worked or what people want to see.
These entertaining ads do well on the ad meter because, according to the following research study, people prefer entertainment in Super Bowl advertising, whether the product is relevant or not. People are willing to watch a Super Bowl ad that is longer than a normal ad would be because they expect entertainment and the length allows for a story to develop. People also have a strong preference for humorous Super Bowl ads but the emotional/meaningful ads that make it into the top 5 are almost the exception to the rule because the results of the research performed here show very little preference for these ads. While the Super Bowl still seems to be a beneficial way to advertise, the price is a big barrier to entry. Luckily, digital culture gives smaller businesses the power to capture viewers in other ways. The study’s findings suggest that many younger participants often just watch Super Bowl ads on YouTube after the game. Younger people are also watching the Super Bowl less and becoming numb to scrolling through ads on social media. It is important, now more than ever, for advertisers to have attention grabbing tactics for a generation with such short attention spans. Advertisers need to follow the trends to keep up with social media, but it will be worth it.
ContributorsGriffin, Karina (Author) / Montoya, Detra (Thesis director) / Giles, Charles Bret (Committee member) / Department of Marketing (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2020-05