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- All Subjects: Real Estate
- Creators: Department of Finance
- Member of: Theses and Dissertations
Understanding the political landscape is crucial to formulating a reasonable prediction as to the future of the London market. Aside from research reports and articles, our main insights into the political direction of Brexit come from our recordings from meetings in March of 2017 with two high-ranking members of Parliament and one member of the House of Lords—all of whom are members of the Tory Party (the meetings being held under the condition of anonymity). The below analysis will be followed by a discussion of the economics of Brexit, primarily focusing on the economic risks and uncertainties which have emerged after the vote, and which currently exist today. Such risks include the UK losing its financial passporting rights, weakening GDP and currency value, the potential for a reduction in foreign direct investment (FDI), and the potential loss of the service sector in the city of London due to not being able to access the European Single Market.
The report will shift focus to analyzing three competing viewpoints of the direction of the London market based on recordings from interviews of stakeholders in the London real estate market. One being an executive of one of the largest REITs in the UK, another being the Global Head of Real Estate at a top asset management firm, and another being a director at a large property consulting firm. The report includes these differing “sub-theses” in order to try to make sense of the vast market uncertainties post-Brexit as well as to contrast their viewpoints with where the market is currently and with the report’s investment recommendation.
The remainder of the report will consist of the methods used for analyzing market trends including how the data was modeled in order to make the investment recommendation. The report will analyze real estate and market metrics pre-Brexit, immediately after the vote, post-Brexit, and will conclude with future projections encapsulating the investment recommendation.
Our findings show that over 70% of an ETFs standard deviation of premia can be explained through a linear combination consisting of two variables: a categorical (Domestic[US], Developed, Emerging) and a discrete variable (time-difference from US). This paper also finds that more traditional metrics such as market cap, ETF price volatility, and even 3rd party market indicators such as the economic freedom index and investment freedom index are insignificant predictors of an ETFs standard deviation of premia when combined with the categorical variable. These findings differ somewhat from existing literature which indicate that these factors should have a significant impact on the predictive ability of an ETFs standard deviation of premia.
Abstract<br/>Foreign Direct Investment has been pursued to economically integrate countries and to increase economic development. This has been accomplished partly through the WTO and Free Trade Agreements (FTAs), which have spurred foreign direct investment (FDI) by removing barriers to trade tariff and nontariff. In addition, they also created a framework and legal guidelines and regulations for investment and trade. Research suggests that this is the case when looking at country level data before and after FTAs go into effect. Although the existing literature offers important insights a weakness is it does not often look at the relationship between FTAs and FDI by analyzing firm level data. This is an important relationship to be studied as, beyond governments multinational companies (MNCs) are one of few key actors that can benefit the most and have the capabilities to take advantage of these FTAs. Therefore, studying the relationship between MNCs and their investments both before and after an FTA is signed is important to see if FDI would change in response to Free Trade Agreements and have an impact at the MNC level deployment of FDI. This would be significant to see if the current steady for attracting FDI is working. This is also important as FDI helps countries develop. Therefore, it can be seen as an exceptional contribution to the overall research on the subject. In this paper I will explore how companies have reacted to the formation of FTAs as well as the distinct effects of North-South South-South and North-North Agreements on firm’s investment strategies, using firm level data and drawing on interviews with multiple trade officials.
The COVID-19 pandemic has and will continue to radically shift the workplace. An increasing percentage of the workforce desires flexible working options and, as such, firms are likely to require less office space going forward. Additionally, the economic downturn caused by the pandemic provides an opportunity for companies to secure favorable rent rates on new lease agreements. This project aims to evaluate and measure Company X’s potential cost savings from terminating current leases and downsizing office space in five selected cities. Along with city-specific real estate market research and forecasts, we employ a four-stage model of Company X’s real estate negotiation process to analyze whether existing lease agreements in these cities should be renewed or terminated.