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Mathematical modeling of infectious diseases can help public health officials to make decisions related to the mitigation of epidemic outbreaks. However, over or under estimations of the morbidity of any infectious disease can be problematic. Therefore, public health officials can always make use of better models to study the potential

Mathematical modeling of infectious diseases can help public health officials to make decisions related to the mitigation of epidemic outbreaks. However, over or under estimations of the morbidity of any infectious disease can be problematic. Therefore, public health officials can always make use of better models to study the potential implication of their decisions and strategies prior to their implementation. Previous work focuses on the mechanisms underlying the different epidemic waves observed in Mexico during the novel swine origin influenza H1N1 pandemic of 2009 and showed extensions of classical models in epidemiology by adding temporal variations in different parameters that are likely to change during the time course of an epidemic, such as, the influence of media, social distancing, school closures, and how vaccination policies may affect different aspects of the dynamics of an epidemic. This current work further examines the influence of different factors considering the randomness of events by adding stochastic processes to meta-population models. I present three different approaches to compare different stochastic methods by considering discrete and continuous time. For the continuous time stochastic modeling approach I consider the continuous-time Markov chain process using forward Kolmogorov equations, for the discrete time stochastic modeling I consider stochastic differential equations using Wiener's increment and Poisson point increments, and also I consider the discrete-time Markov chain process. These first two stochastic modeling approaches will be presented in a one city and two city epidemic models using, as a base, our deterministic model. The last one will be discussed briefly on a one city SIS and SIR-type model.
ContributorsCruz-Aponte, Maytee (Author) / Wirkus, Stephen A. (Thesis advisor) / Castillo-Chavez, Carlos (Thesis advisor) / Camacho, Erika T. (Committee member) / Kang, Yun (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2014
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Description
Rabies disease remains enzootic among raccoons, skunks, foxes and bats in the United States. It is of primary concern for public-health agencies to control spatial spread of rabies in wildlife and its potential spillover infection of domestic animals and humans. Rabies is invariably fatal in wildlife if untreated, with a

Rabies disease remains enzootic among raccoons, skunks, foxes and bats in the United States. It is of primary concern for public-health agencies to control spatial spread of rabies in wildlife and its potential spillover infection of domestic animals and humans. Rabies is invariably fatal in wildlife if untreated, with a non-negligible incubation period. Understanding how this latency affects spatial spread of rabies in wildlife is the concern of chapter 2 and 3. Chapter 1 deals with the background of mathematical models for rabies and lists main objectives. In chapter 2, a reaction-diffusion susceptible-exposed-infected (SEI) model and a delayed diffusive susceptible-infected (SI) model are constructed to describe the same epidemic process -- rabies spread in foxes. For the delayed diffusive model a non-local infection term with delay is resulted from modeling the dispersal during incubation stage. Comparison is made regarding minimum traveling wave speeds of the two models, which are verified using numerical experiments. In chapter 3, starting with two Kermack and McKendrick's models where infectivity, death rate and diffusion rate of infected individuals can depend on the age of infection, the asymptotic speed of spread $c^\ast$ for the cumulated force of infection can be analyzed. For the special case of fixed incubation period, the asymptotic speed of spread is governed by the same integral equation for both models. Although explicit solutions for $c^\ast$ are difficult to obtain, assuming that diffusion coefficient of incubating animals is small, $c^\ast$ can be estimated in terms of model parameter values. Chapter 4 considers the implementation of realistic landscape in simulation of rabies spread in skunks and bats in northeast Texas. The Finite Element Method (FEM) is adopted because the irregular shapes of realistic landscape naturally lead to unstructured grids in the spatial domain. This implementation leads to a more accurate description of skunk rabies cases distributions.
ContributorsLiu, Hao (Author) / Kuang, Yang (Thesis advisor) / Jackiewicz, Zdzislaw (Committee member) / Lanchier, Nicolas (Committee member) / Smith, Hal (Committee member) / Thieme, Horst (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2013
Description
Despite the wealth of folk music traditions in Portugal and the importance of the clarinet in the music of bandas filarmonicas, it is uncommon to find works featuring the clarinet using Portuguese folk music elements. In the interest of expanding this type of repertoire, three new works were commissioned from

Despite the wealth of folk music traditions in Portugal and the importance of the clarinet in the music of bandas filarmonicas, it is uncommon to find works featuring the clarinet using Portuguese folk music elements. In the interest of expanding this type of repertoire, three new works were commissioned from three different composers. The resulting works are Seres Imaginarios 3 by Luis Cardoso; Delirio Barroco by Tiago Derrica; and Memória by Pedro Faria Gomes. In an effort to submit these new works for inclusion into mainstream performance literature, the author has recorded these works on compact disc. This document includes interview transcripts with each composer, providing first-person discussion of each composition, as well as detailed biographical information on each composer. To provide context, the author has included a brief discussion on Portuguese folk music, and in particular, the role that the clarinet plays in Portuguese folk music culture.
ContributorsFerreira, Wesley (Contributor) / Spring, Robert S (Thesis advisor) / Bailey, Wayne (Committee member) / Gardner, Joshua (Committee member) / Hill, Gary (Committee member) / Schuring, Martin (Committee member) / Solis, Theodore (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2013
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Description
Malaria is a vector-borne parasitic disease affecting tropical and subtropical regions. Regardless control efforts, malaria incidence is still incredible high with 219 million clinical cases and an estimated 660,000 related deaths (WHO, 2012). In this project, different population genetic approaches were explored to characterize parasite populations. The goal was to

Malaria is a vector-borne parasitic disease affecting tropical and subtropical regions. Regardless control efforts, malaria incidence is still incredible high with 219 million clinical cases and an estimated 660,000 related deaths (WHO, 2012). In this project, different population genetic approaches were explored to characterize parasite populations. The goal was to create a framework that considered temporal and spatial changes of Plasmodium populations in malaria surveillance. This is critical in a vector borne disease in areas of low transmission where there is not accurate information of when and where a patient was infected. In this study, fragment analysis data and single nucleotide polymorphism (SNPs) from South American samples were used to characterize Plasmodium population structure, patterns of migration and gene flow, and discuss approaches to differentiate reinfection vs. recrudescence cases in clinical trials. A Bayesian approach was also applied to analyze the Plasmodium population history by inferring genealogies using microsatellites data. Specifically, fluctuations in the parasite population and the age of different parasite lineages were evaluated through time in order to relate them with the malaria control plan in force. These studies are important to understand the turnover or persistence of "clones" circulating in a specific area through time and consider them in drug efficacy studies. Moreover, this methodology is useful for assessing changes in malaria transmission and for more efficiently manage resources to deploy control measures in locations that act as parasite "sources" for other regions. Overall, these results stress the importance of monitoring malaria demographic changes when assessing the success of elimination programs in areas of low transmission.
ContributorsChenet, Stella M (Author) / Escalante, Ananias A (Thesis advisor) / Clark-Curtiss, Josephine (Committee member) / Rosenberg, Michael (Committee member) / Taylor, Jesse E (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2014
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Description
In the field of infectious disease epidemiology, the assessment of model robustness outcomes plays a significant role in the identification, reformulation, and evaluation of preparedness strategies aimed at limiting the impact of catastrophic events (pandemics or the deliberate release of biological agents) or used in the management of disease prevention

In the field of infectious disease epidemiology, the assessment of model robustness outcomes plays a significant role in the identification, reformulation, and evaluation of preparedness strategies aimed at limiting the impact of catastrophic events (pandemics or the deliberate release of biological agents) or used in the management of disease prevention strategies, or employed in the identification and evaluation of control or mitigation measures. The research work in this dissertation focuses on: The comparison and assessment of the role of exponentially distributed waiting times versus the use of generalized non-exponential parametric distributed waiting times of infectious periods on the quantitative and qualitative outcomes generated by Susceptible-Infectious-Removed (SIR) models. Specifically, Gamma distributed infectious periods are considered in the three research projects developed following the applications found in (Bailey 1964, Anderson 1980, Wearing 2005, Feng 2007, Feng 2007, Yan 2008, lloyd 2009, Vergu 2010). i) The first project focuses on the influence of input model parameters, such as the transmission rate, mean and variance of Gamma distributed infectious periods, on disease prevalence, the peak epidemic size and its timing, final epidemic size, epidemic duration and basic reproduction number. Global uncertainty and sensitivity analyses are carried out using a deterministic Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered (SIR) model. The quantitative effect and qualitative relation between input model parameters and outcome variables are established using Latin Hypercube Sampling (LHS) and Partial rank correlation coefficient (PRCC) and Spearman rank correlation coefficient (RCC) sensitivity indices. We learnt that: For relatively low (R0 close to one) to high (mean of R0 equals 15) transmissibility, the variance of the Gamma distribution for the infectious period, input parameter of the deterministic age-of-infection SIR model, is key (statistically significant) on the predictability of the epidemiological variables such as the epidemic duration and the peak size and timing of the prevalence of infectious individuals and therefore, for the predictability these variables, it is preferable to utilize a nonlinear system of Volterra integral equations, rather than a nonlinear system of ordinary differential equations. The predictability of epidemiological variables such as the final epidemic size and the basic reproduction number are unaffected by (or independent of) the variance of the Gamma distribution for the infectious period and therefore for the choice on which type of nonlinear system for the description of the SIR model (VIE's or ODE's) is irrelevant. Although, for practical proposes, with the aim of lowering the complexity and number operations in the numerical methods, a nonlinear system of ordinary differential equations is preferred. The main contribution lies in the development of a model based decision-tool that helps determine when SIR models given in terms of Volterra integral equations are equivalent or better suited than SIR models that only consider exponentially distributed infectious periods. ii) The second project addresses the question of whether or not there is sufficient evidence to conclude that two empirical distributions for a single epidemiological outcome, one generated using a stochastic SIR model under exponentially distributed infectious periods and the other under the non-exponentially distributed infectious period, are statistically dissimilar. The stochastic formulations are modeled via a continuous time Markov chain model. The statistical hypothesis test is conducted using the non-parametric Kolmogorov-Smirnov test. We found evidence that shows that for low to moderate transmissibility, all empirical distribution pairs (generated from exponential and non-exponential distributions) for each of the epidemiological quantities considered are statistically dissimilar. The research in this project helps determine whether the weakening exponential distribution assumption must be considered in the estimation of probability of events defined from the empirical distribution of specific random variables. iii) The third project involves the assessment of the effect of exponentially distributed infectious periods on estimates of input parameter and the associated outcome variable predictions. Quantities unaffected by the use of exponentially distributed infectious period within low transmissibility scenarios include, the prevalence peak time, final epidemic size, epidemic duration and basic reproduction number and for high transmissibility scenarios only the prevalence peak time and final epidemic size. An application designed to determine from incidence data whether there is sufficient statistical evidence to conclude that the infectious period distribution should not be modeled by an exponential distribution is developed. A method for estimating explicitly specified non-exponential parametric probability density functions for the infectious period from epidemiological data is developed. The methodologies presented in this dissertation may be applicable to models where waiting times are used to model transitions between stages, a process that is common in the study of life-history dynamics of many ecological systems.
ContributorsMorales Butler, Emmanuel J (Author) / Castillo-Chavez, Carlos (Thesis advisor) / Aparicio, Juan P (Thesis advisor) / Camacho, Erika T (Committee member) / Kang, Yun (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2014
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Description
Extraordinary medical advances have led to significant reductions in the burden of infectious diseases in humans. However, infectious diseases still account for more than 13 million annual deaths. This large burden is partly due to some pathogens having found suitable conditions to emerge and spread in denser and more connected

Extraordinary medical advances have led to significant reductions in the burden of infectious diseases in humans. However, infectious diseases still account for more than 13 million annual deaths. This large burden is partly due to some pathogens having found suitable conditions to emerge and spread in denser and more connected host populations, and others having evolved to escape the pressures imposed by the rampant use of antimicrobials. It is then critical to improve our understanding of how diseases spread in these modern landscapes, characterized by new host population structures and socio-economic environments, as well as containment measures such as the deployment of drugs. Thus, the motivation of this dissertation is two-fold. First, we study, using both data-driven and modeling approaches, the the spread of infectious diseases in urban areas. As a case study, we use confirmed-cases data on sexually transmitted diseases (STDs) in the United States to assess the conduciveness of population size of urban areas and their socio-economic characteristics as predictors of STD incidence. We find that the scaling of STD incidence in cities is superlinear, and that the percent of African-Americans residing in cities largely determines these statistical patterns. Since disparities in access to health care are often exacerbated in urban areas, within this project we also develop two modeling frameworks to study the effect of health care disparities on epidemic outcomes. Discrepant results between the two approaches indicate that knowledge of the shape of the recovery period distribution, not just its mean and variance, is key for assessing the epidemiological impact of inequalities. The second project proposes to study, from a modeling perspective, the spread of drug resistance in human populations featuring vital dynamics, stochasticity and contact structure. We derive effective treatment regimes that minimize both the overall disease burden and the spread of resistance. Additionally, targeted treatment in structured host populations may lead to higher levels of drug resistance, and if drug-resistant strains are compensated, they can spread widely even when the wild-type strain is below its epidemic threshold.
ContributorsPatterson-Lomba, Oscar (Author) / Castillo-Chavez, Carlos (Thesis advisor) / Towers, Sherry (Thesis advisor) / Chowell-Puente, Gerardo (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2014
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Description
Although research has documented robust prospective relationships between externalizing symptomatology and subsequent binge drinking among adolescents, the extent to which internalizing symptoms increase risk for drinking remains controversial. In particular, the role of anxiety as a predictor of binge drinking remains unclear. Recent evidence suggests that one possible reason for

Although research has documented robust prospective relationships between externalizing symptomatology and subsequent binge drinking among adolescents, the extent to which internalizing symptoms increase risk for drinking remains controversial. In particular, the role of anxiety as a predictor of binge drinking remains unclear. Recent evidence suggests that one possible reason for these mixed findings is that separate dimensions of anxiety may differentially confer risk for alcohol use. The present study tested two dimensions of anxiety - worry and physiological anxiety -- as predictors of binge drinking in a longitudinal study of juvenile delinquents. Overall, results indicate that worry and physiological anxiety showed differential relations with drinking behavior. In general, worry was protective against alcohol use, whereas physiological anxiety conferred risk for binge drinking, but both effects were conditional on levels of offending. Implications for future research examining the role of anxiety in predicting drinking behavior among youth are discussed.
ContributorsNichter, Brandon (Author) / Chassin, Laurie (Thesis advisor) / Barrera, Manuel (Committee member) / Presson, Clark (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2014
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Description
The health situation of indigenous peoples is comparable to that of the world's poorest populations, but with the additional burdens of social and cultural marginalization, geographic and cultural barriers to accessing health services, and, in some areas, appropriation of land and natural resources. Cultural transmission (the transfer of beliefs, ideas,

The health situation of indigenous peoples is comparable to that of the world's poorest populations, but with the additional burdens of social and cultural marginalization, geographic and cultural barriers to accessing health services, and, in some areas, appropriation of land and natural resources. Cultural transmission (the transfer of beliefs, ideas, and behaviors from one culture to another) from outsider health institutions should presumably aid in closing this health gap by transferring knowledge, practices, and infrastructure to prevent and treat disease. This study examines the biosocial construction of the disease ecology of tuberculosis (TB) in indigenous communities of the Paraguayan Chaco with varying degrees of cultural transmission from outside institutions (government, religious, and NGOs), to determine the influence of cultural transmission on local disease ecologies. Using a biocultural epidemiological framework for the analysis of human infectious disease ecology, this study employed an interdisciplinary, mixed methods approach to examine the interactions of host, pathogen, and the environment in the Paraguayan Chaco. Three case studies examining aspects of TB disease ecology in indigenous communities are presented: (1) The effective cultural transmission of biomedical knowledge to isolated communities, (2) Public health infrastructure, hygiene, and the prevalence of intestinal parasites: co-morbidities that promote the progression to active TB disease, and (3) Community-level risk factors for TB and indigenous TB burden. Findings from the case studies suggest that greater influence from outside institutions was not associated with greater adoption of biomedical knowledge of TB. The prevalence of helminthiasis was unexpectedly low, but infection with giardia was common, even in a community with cleaner water sources. Communities with a health post were more likely to report active adult TB, while communities with more education were less likely to report active pediatric TB, suggesting that healthcare access is the major determinant of TB detection. More research is needed on the role of non-indigenous community residents and other measures of acculturation or integration in TB outcomes, especially at the household level. Indigenous TB burden in the Chaco is disproportionately high, and better understanding of the mechanisms that produce higher incidence and prevalence of the disease is needed.
ContributorsVansteelandt, Amanda (Author) / Hurtado, Ana Magdalena (Thesis advisor) / Stone, Anne (Thesis advisor) / Hruschka, Daniel (Committee member) / Rojas de Arias, Antonieta (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2014
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Description
The concept of vaccination dates back further than Edward Jenner's first vaccine using cowpox pustules to confer immunity against smallpox in 1796. Nevertheless, it was Jenner's success that gave vaccines their name and made vaccinia virus (VACV) of particular interest. More than 200 years later there is still the need

The concept of vaccination dates back further than Edward Jenner's first vaccine using cowpox pustules to confer immunity against smallpox in 1796. Nevertheless, it was Jenner's success that gave vaccines their name and made vaccinia virus (VACV) of particular interest. More than 200 years later there is still the need to understand vaccination from vaccine design to prediction of vaccine efficacy using mathematical models. Post-exposure vaccination with VACV has been suggested to be effective if administered within four days of smallpox exposure although this has not been definitively studied in humans. The first and second chapters analyze post-exposure prophylaxis of VACV in an animal model using v50ΔB13RMγ, a recombinant VACV expressing murine interferon gamma (IFN-γ) also known as type II IFN. While untreated animals infected with wild type VACV die by 10 days post-infection (dpi), animals treated with v50ΔB13RMγ 1 dpi had decreased morbidity and 100% survival. Despite these differences, the viral load was similar in both groups suggesting that v50ΔB13RMγ acts as an immunoregulator rather than as an antiviral. One of the main characteristics of VACV is its resistance to type I IFN, an effect primarily mediated by the E3L protein, which has a Z-DNA binding domain and a double-stranded RNA (dsRNA) binding domain. In the third chapter a VACV that independently expresses both domains of E3L was engineered and compared to wild type in cells in culture. The dual expression virus was unable to replicate in the JC murine cell line where both domains are needed together for replication. Moreover, phosphorylation of the dsRNA dependent protein kinase (PKR) was observed at late times post-infection which indicates that both domains need to be linked together in order to block the IFN response. Because smallpox has already been eradicated, the utility of mathematical modeling as a tool for predicting disease spread and vaccine efficacy was explored in the last chapter using dengue as a disease model. Current modeling approaches were reviewed and the 2000-2001 dengue outbreak in a Peruvian region was analyzed. This last section highlights the importance of interdisciplinary collaboration and how it benefits research on infectious diseases.
ContributorsHolechek, Susan A (Author) / Jacobs, Bertram L (Thesis advisor) / Castillo-Chavez, Carlos (Committee member) / Frasch, Wayne (Committee member) / Hogue, Brenda (Committee member) / Stout, Valerie (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2011
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African Swine Fever (ASF), endemic in many African countries, is now spreading to other continents. Though ASF is capable of incurring serious economic losses in affected countries, no vaccine exists to provide immunity to animals. Disease control relies largely on rapid diagnosis and the implementation of movement restrictions and strict

African Swine Fever (ASF), endemic in many African countries, is now spreading to other continents. Though ASF is capable of incurring serious economic losses in affected countries, no vaccine exists to provide immunity to animals. Disease control relies largely on rapid diagnosis and the implementation of movement restrictions and strict eradication programs. Developing a scalable, accurate and low cost diagnostic for ASF will be of great help for the current situation. CIM's 10K random peptide microarray is a new high-throughput platform that allows systematic investigations of immune responses associated with disease and shows promise as a diagnostic tool. In this study, this new technology was applied to characterize the immune responses of ASF virus (ASFV) infections and immunizations. Six sets of sera from ASFV antigen immunized pigs, 6 sera from infected pigs and 20 sera samples from unexposed pigs were tested and analyzed statistically. Results show that both ASFV antigen immunized pigs and ASFV viral infected pigs can be distinguished from unexposed pigs. Since it appears that immune responses to other viral infections are also distinguishable on this platform, it holds the potential of being useful in developing a new ASF diagnostic. The ability of this platform to identify specific ASFV antibody epitopes was also explored. A subtle motif was found to be shared among a set of peptides displaying the highest reactivity for an antigen specific antibody. However, this motif does not seem to match with any antibody epitopes predicted by a linear antibody epitope prediction.
ContributorsXiao, Liang (Author) / Sykes, Kathryn (Thesis advisor) / Zhao, Zhan-Gong (Committee member) / Stafford, Phillip (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2011