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- All Subjects: Agriculture economics
- All Subjects: online marketing
- Creators: Park, Sungho
- Member of: Theses and Dissertations
- Status: Published
Description
Consumers search before making virtually any purchase. The notion that consumers engage in costly search is well-understood to have deep implications for market performance. However to date, no theoretical model allows for the observation that consumers often purchase more than a single product in an individual shopping occasion. Clothing, food, books, and music are but four important examples of goods that are purchased many items at a time. I develop a modeling approach that accounts for multi-purchase occasions in a structural way. My model shows that as preference for variety increases, so does the size of the consideration set. Search models that ignore preference for variety are, therefore, likely to under-predict the number of products searched. It is generally thought that lower search costs increase retail competition which pushes prices and assortments down. However, I show that there is an optimal number of products to offer depending on the intensity of consumer search costs. Consumers with high search costs prefer to shop at a store with a large assortment of goods and purchase multiple products, even if the prices that firm charges is higher than competing firms' prices. On the other hand, consumers with low search costs tend to purchase fewer goods and shop at the stores that have lower prices, as long as the store has a reasonable assortment offering. The implications for market performance are dramatic and pervasive. In particular, the misspecification of demand model in which search is important and/or multiple discreteness is observed will produce biased parameter estimates leading to erroneous managerial conclusions.
ContributorsAllender, William Jacob (Author) / Richards, Timothy J. (Thesis advisor) / Park, Sungho (Committee member) / Hamilton, Stephen (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2013
Description
It is well understood that decisions made under uncertainty differ from those made without risk in important and significant ways. Yet, there is very little research into how uncertainty manifests itself in the most ubiquitous of decision-making environments: Consumers' day-to-day decisions over where to shop, and what to buy for their daily grocery needs. Facing a choice between stores that either offer relatively stable "everyday low prices" (EDLP) or variable prices that reflect aggressive promotion strategies (HILO), consumers have to choose stores under price-uncertainty. I find that consumers' attitudes toward risk are critically important in determining store-choice, and that heterogeneity in risk attitudes explains the co-existence of EDLP and HILO stores - an equilibrium that was previously explained in somewhat unsatisfying ways. After choosing a store, consumers face another source of risk. While knowing the quality or taste of established brands, consumers have very little information about new products. Consequently, consumers tend to choose smaller package sizes for new products, which limits their exposure to the risk that the product does not meet their prior expectations. While the observation that consumers purchase small amounts of new products is not new, I show how this practice is fully consistent with optimal purchase decision-making by utility-maximizing consumers. I then use this insight to explain how manufacturers of consumer packaged goods (CPGs) respond to higher production costs. Because consumers base their purchase decisions in part on package size, manufacturers can use package size as a competitive tool in order to raise margins in the face of higher production costs. While others have argued that manufacturers reduce package sizes as a means of raising unit-prices (prices per unit of volume) in a hidden way, I show that the more important effect is a competitive one: Changes in package size can soften price competition, so manufacturers need not rely on fooling consumers in order to pass-through cost increases through changes in package size. The broader implications of consumer behavior under risk are dramatic. First, risk perceptions affect consumers' store choice and product choice patterns in ways that can be exploited by both retailers and manufacturers. Second, strategic considerations prevent manufacturers from manipulating package size in ways that seem designed to trick consumers. Third, many services are also offered as packages, and also involve uncertainty, so the effects identified here are likely to be pervasive throughout the consumer economy.
ContributorsYonezawa, Koichi (Author) / Richards, Timothy J. (Thesis advisor) / Grebitus, Carola (Committee member) / Park, Sungho (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2014
Description
Total digital media advertising spending of $72.5 billion surpassed total television Ad spending of $71.3 billion for the first time ever in 2016. Approximately $39 billion, or 54% of the digital media advertising spend, involved pre-programmed software that purchased Ads on behalf of a buyer in Real-Time Bidding (RTB) settings. A major concern for Ad buyers is sub-optimal spending in RTB settings owing to biases in the attribution of customer conversions to Ad impressions. The purpose of this research is twofold. First, identify and propose a novel experimental design and analysis plan for to handling a previously unidentified and unaddressed source of endogeneity: count/quality simultaneity bias (CQB). Second, conduct a field study using data for Ad response rates, cost, and observed consumer behavior to solve for the profit maximizing daily Ad frequency per customer. One large online retailer provided data for Ad impressions, bid costs, response rates, revenue per visit, and operating costs for 153,561 unique users over 23 days. Unique visitors were randomly assigned to one of seven treatment groups with one, two, three, four, five, and six impressions per day limits as well as a final condition with no daily impression cap. Ordinary least square models (OLS) were fit to the data and a non-linear relationship between Ad impressions and site visits demonstrating declining marginal effect of Ad impression on site visits after an optimal point. The results of the field study confirmed the existence of negative CQB and demonstrated how my novel experimental design and analysis can reduce the negative bias in the estimate of impression quantity on customer response. Second, managers interested in improving the efficiency of advertising spend should restrict display advertising to only the highest quality inventory through specific site targeting and by leveraging direct buys and private marketplace deals. This strategy ensures that subsequent impressions are not of lower quality by restricting the pool of possible impressions from a homogenous set of high quality inventory.
ContributorsFay, Bradley (Author) / Mokwa, Michael P. (Thesis advisor) / Park, Sungho (Thesis advisor) / Han, Sang-Pil (Committee member) / Christopher, Ranjit M (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2017
Description
E-commerce has rapidly become a mainstay in today's economy, and many websites have built themselves around providing a platform for independent sellers. Sites such as Etsy, Storenvy, Redbubble, and Society6 are increasingly popular options for anyone looking to open their own online store. With this project, I attempted to examine the effects of four different marketing techniques on sales in an online store. I opened a shop on Etsy and tracked sales in connection with promotion through social media, selling products in-person at a convention, holding a holiday tie-in sale, and using price anchoring. Social media accounts were opened on Facebook, Tumblr, and Instagram to promote the shop over the course of the project period, and Etsy's web analytics were used to track which sites directed the most traffic to the shop. I attended a convention in mid-January 2016 where I sold my products and distributed business cards with a discount code to track sales resulting from being at the convention. A holiday sale was held in conjunction with Valentine's Day to look at whether holidays influenced purchases. Lastly, a significantly more expensive product was temporarily put in the shop to see whether it produced a price anchoring effect \u2014 that is, encouraged sales of the less expensive products by making them seem affordable in comparison. While the volume of sales data was too small to draw statistically significant conclusions, the project was a highly instructive experience in the process of opening a small online store. The decision-making steps outlined may be helpful to other students looking to open their own online shop.
ContributorsChen, Candice Elizabeth (Author) / Moore, James (Thesis director) / Sanford, Adriana (Committee member) / Harrington Bioengineering Program (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2016-05