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Description
We seek a comprehensive measurement for the economic prosperity of persons with disabilities. We survey the current literature and identify the major economic indicators used to describe the socioeconomic standing of persons with disabilities. We then develop a methodology for constructing a statistically valid composite index of these indicators, and

We seek a comprehensive measurement for the economic prosperity of persons with disabilities. We survey the current literature and identify the major economic indicators used to describe the socioeconomic standing of persons with disabilities. We then develop a methodology for constructing a statistically valid composite index of these indicators, and build this index using data from the 2014 American Community Survey. Finally, we provide context for further use and development of the index and describe an example application of the index in practice.
ContributorsTheisen, Ryan (Co-author) / Helms, Tyler (Co-author) / Lewis, Paul (Thesis director) / Reiser, Mark (Committee member) / Economics Program in CLAS (Contributor) / School of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences (Contributor) / School of Politics and Global Studies (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2017-05
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Description
Cryptocurrencies have become one of the most fascinating forms of currency and economics due to their fluctuating values and lack of centralization. This project attempts to use machine learning methods to effectively model in-sample data for Bitcoin and Ethereum using rule induction methods. The dataset is cleaned by removing entries

Cryptocurrencies have become one of the most fascinating forms of currency and economics due to their fluctuating values and lack of centralization. This project attempts to use machine learning methods to effectively model in-sample data for Bitcoin and Ethereum using rule induction methods. The dataset is cleaned by removing entries with missing data. The new column is created to measure price difference to create a more accurate analysis on the change in price. Eight relevant variables are selected using cross validation: the total number of bitcoins, the total size of the blockchains, the hash rate, mining difficulty, revenue from mining, transaction fees, the cost of transactions and the estimated transaction volume. The in-sample data is modeled using a simple tree fit, first with one variable and then with eight. Using all eight variables, the in-sample model and data have a correlation of 0.6822657. The in-sample model is improved by first applying bootstrap aggregation (also known as bagging) to fit 400 decision trees to the in-sample data using one variable. Then the random forests technique is applied to the data using all eight variables. This results in a correlation between the model and data of 9.9443413. The random forests technique is then applied to an Ethereum dataset, resulting in a correlation of 9.6904798. Finally, an out-of-sample model is created for Bitcoin and Ethereum using random forests, with a benchmark correlation of 0.03 for financial data. The correlation between the training model and the testing data for Bitcoin was 0.06957639, while for Ethereum the correlation was -0.171125. In conclusion, it is confirmed that cryptocurrencies can have accurate in-sample models by applying the random forests method to a dataset. However, out-of-sample modeling is more difficult, but in some cases better than typical forms of financial data. It should also be noted that cryptocurrency data has similar properties to other related financial datasets, realizing future potential for system modeling for cryptocurrency within the financial world.
ContributorsBrowning, Jacob Christian (Author) / Meuth, Ryan (Thesis director) / Jones, Donald (Committee member) / McCulloch, Robert (Committee member) / Computer Science and Engineering Program (Contributor) / School of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2018-05
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Description
FastStat is a responsive website designed to work on any handheld, laptop, or desktop device. It serves as a first step into statistical calculations, educating the user on the basics of statistical analysis, and guiding them as they perform analyses of their own using built-in calculators. The calculators available can

FastStat is a responsive website designed to work on any handheld, laptop, or desktop device. It serves as a first step into statistical calculations, educating the user on the basics of statistical analysis, and guiding them as they perform analyses of their own using built-in calculators. The calculators available can perform z tests, t tests, chi square tests, and analysis of variance tests to determine significant characteristics of the user's data. Outputted data includes means, standard deviations, significance levels, applicable statistics, and worded results indicating the outcome of the performed test. With its clean design, FastStat directs the user in an intuitive manner to fill in the information needed, giving clear indications of what types of values are needed where and flagging descriptive error messages if any inputted values are incorrect. FastStat also implements a halt to calculations if any errors are found, which saves time by avoiding impossible calculations. Once complete, FastStat outputs a variety of information of use to the user in a clearly labeled manner. The calculators are designed in such a way that the user will know what information they will get out of the calculator before performing any calculations at all. Aside from the calculators, FastStat includes introductory pages designed to get users familiar with common statistical terms and the associated tests, solidifying its purpose as an introductory tool. All tests are described by their typical uses, necessary inputs, calculated outputs, and extra notes of importance. Many terms are defined for the purpose of statistics, complete with examples to help educate the user on the concepts. With the information available, even the newest statistician can learn and begin performing tests almost immediately.
ContributorsBroin, Demetri Evan (Author) / Squire, Susan (Thesis director) / Samara, Marko (Committee member) / Graphic Information Technology (Contributor) / School of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2018-12
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Description
There are multiple mathematical models for alignment of individuals moving within a group. In a first class of models, individuals tend to relax their velocity toward the average velocity of other nearby neighbors. These types of models are motivated by the flocking behavior exhibited by birds. Another class of models

There are multiple mathematical models for alignment of individuals moving within a group. In a first class of models, individuals tend to relax their velocity toward the average velocity of other nearby neighbors. These types of models are motivated by the flocking behavior exhibited by birds. Another class of models have been introduced to describe rapid changes of individual velocity, referred to as jump, which better describes behavior of smaller agents (e.g. locusts, ants). In the second class of model, individuals will randomly choose to align with another nearby individual, matching velocities. There are several open questions concerning these two type of behavior: which behavior is the most efficient to create a flock (i.e. to converge toward the same velocity)? Will flocking still emerge when the number of individuals approach infinity? Analysis of these models show that, in the homogeneous case where all individuals are capable of interacting with each other, the variance of the velocities in both the jump model and the relaxation model decays to 0 exponentially for any nonzero number of individuals. This implies the individuals in the system converge to an absorbing state where all individuals share the same velocity, therefore individuals converge to a flock even as the number of individuals approach infinity. Further analysis focused on the case where interactions between individuals were determined by an adjacency matrix. The second eigenvalues of the Laplacian of this adjacency matrix (denoted ƛ2) provided a lower bound on the rate of decay of the variance. When ƛ2 is nonzero, the system is said to converge to a flock almost surely. Furthermore, when the adjacency matrix is generated by a random graph, such that connections between individuals are formed with probability p (where 0

1/N. ƛ2 is a good estimator of the rate of convergence of the system, in comparison to the value of p used to generate the adjacency matrix..

ContributorsTrent, Austin L. (Author) / Motsch, Sebastien (Thesis director) / Lanchier, Nicolas (Committee member) / School of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2018-05
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Description
In this paper, I will show that news headlines of global events can predict changes in stock price by using Machine Learning and eight years of data from r/WorldNews, a popular forum on Reddit.com. My data is confined to the top 25 daily posts on the forum, and due to

In this paper, I will show that news headlines of global events can predict changes in stock price by using Machine Learning and eight years of data from r/WorldNews, a popular forum on Reddit.com. My data is confined to the top 25 daily posts on the forum, and due to the implicit filtering mechanism in the online community, these 25 posts are representative of the most popular news headlines and influential global events of the day. Hence, these posts shine a light on how large-scale social and political events affect the stock market. Using a Logistic Regression and a Naive Bayes classifier, I am able to predict with approximately 85% accuracy a binary change in stock price using term-feature vectors gathered from the news headlines. The accuracy, precision and recall results closely rival the best models in this field of research. In addition to the results, I will also describe the mathematical underpinnings of the two models; preceded by a general investigation of the intersection between the multiple academic disciplines related to this project. These range from social to computer science and from statistics to philosophy. The goal of this additional discussion is to further illustrate the interdisciplinary nature of the research and hopefully inspire a non-monolithic mindset when further investigations are pursued.
Created2016-12
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Description
Problems related to alcohol consumption cause not only extra economic expenses, but are an expense to the health of both drinkers and non-drinkers due to the harm directly and indirectly caused by alcohol consumption. Investigating predictors and reasons for alcohol-related problems is of importance, as alcohol-related problems could be prevented

Problems related to alcohol consumption cause not only extra economic expenses, but are an expense to the health of both drinkers and non-drinkers due to the harm directly and indirectly caused by alcohol consumption. Investigating predictors and reasons for alcohol-related problems is of importance, as alcohol-related problems could be prevented by quitting or limiting consumption of alcohol. We were interested in predicting alcohol-related problems using multiple linear regression and regression trees, and then comparing the regressions to the tree. Impaired control, anxiety sensitivity, mother permissiveness, father permissiveness, gender, and age were included as predictors. The data used was comprised of participants (n=835) sampled from students at Arizona State University. A multiple linear regression without interactions, multiple linear regression with two-way interactions and squares, and a regression tree were used and compared. The regression and the tree had similar results. Multiple interactions of variables predicted alcohol-related problems. Overall, the tree was easier to interpret than the regressions, however, the regressions provided specific predicted alcohol-related problems scores, whereas the tree formed large groups and had a predicted alcohol-related problems score for each group. Nevertheless, the tree still predicted alcohol-related problems nearly as well, if not better than the regressions.
ContributorsVoorhies, Kirsten Reed (Author) / McCulloch, Robert (Thesis director) / Zheng, Yi (Committee member) / Patock-Peckham, Julie (Committee member) / School of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences (Contributor) / Department of Psychology (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2016-12
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Description

Chapter 1: Functional Specialization and Arm Length in Octopus bimaculoides<br/>Although studies are limited, there is some evidence that octopuses use their arms for specialized functions. For example, in Octopus maya and O. vulgaris, the anterior arms are utilized more frequently for grasping and exploring (Lee, 1992; Byrne et al., 2006a),

Chapter 1: Functional Specialization and Arm Length in Octopus bimaculoides<br/>Although studies are limited, there is some evidence that octopuses use their arms for specialized functions. For example, in Octopus maya and O. vulgaris, the anterior arms are utilized more frequently for grasping and exploring (Lee, 1992; Byrne et al., 2006a), while posterior arms are more frequently utilized for crawling in O. vulgaris (Levy et al., 2015). In addition, O. vulgaris uses favored arms when retrieving food and making contact with a T-maze as dictated by their lateralized vision (Byrne, 2006b). O. vulgaris also demonstrates a preference for anterior arms when retrieving food from a Y-maze (Gutnick et. al. 2020). In Octopus bimaculoides bending and elongation were more frequent in anterior arms than posterior arms during reaching and grasping tasks, and right arms displayed deformation more frequently than left arms, with the exception of the hectocotylus (R3) in males (Kennedy et. al. 2020). Given these observed functional differences, the goal of this study was to determine if morphological differences exist between different octopus arm identities, coded as L1-L4 and R1-R4. In particular, the relationship between arm length and arm identity was analyzed statistically. The dataset included 111 intact arms from 22 wild-caught specimens of O. bimaculoides (11 male and 11 female). Simple linear regressions and an analysis of covariance were performed to test the relationship between arm length and a number of factors, including body mass, sex, anterior versus posterior location, and left versus the right side. Mass had a significant linear relationship with arm length and a one-way ANOVA demonstrated that arm identity is significantly correlated with arm length. Moreover, an analysis of covariance demonstrated that independent of mass, arm identity has a significant linear relationship with arm length. Despite an overall appearance of bilateral symmetry, arms of different identities do not have statistically equivalent lengths in O. bimaculoides. Furthermore, differences in arm length do not appear to be related to sex, anterior versus posterior location, or left or right side. These results call into question the existing practice of treating all arms as equivalent by either using a single-arm measurement as representative of all eight or calculating an average length and suggest that morphological analyses of specific arm identities may be more informative.<br/><br/>Chapter 2: Predicting and Analyzing Octopus bimaculoides Sensitivity to Global Anesthetic<br/>Although global anesthetic is widely used in human and veterinary medicine the mechanism and impact of global anesthetic is relatively poorly comprehended, even in well-studied mammalian models. Invertebrate anesthetic is even less understood. In order to evaluate factors that impact anesthetic effectiveness analyses were conducted on 22 wild-caught specimens of Octopus bimaculoides during 72 anesthetic events.Three machine learning models: regression tree, random forest, and generalized additive model were utilized to make predictions of the concentration of anesthetic (percent ethanol by volume) from 11 features and to determine feature importance in making those predictions. The fit of each model was analyzed on three criteria: correlation coefficient, mean squared error, and relative error. Feature importance was determined in a model-specific manner. Predictions from the best performing model, random forest, have a .82 correlation coefficient with experimental values. Feature importance suggests that temperature on arrival and cohabitation factors strongly influence predictions for anesthesia concentration. This likely indicates the transportation process was incurring stress on the animals and that cohabitation was also stressful for the typically solitary O. bimaculoides. This long-term stress could lead to a decline in the animal’s well-being and a lower necessary ethanol concentration (Horvath et al., 2013). This analysis provides information to improve the care of octopus in laboratory settings and furthers the understanding of the effects of global anesthetic in invertebrates, particularly one with a distributed nervous system.

ContributorsSorge, Marieke Alexandria (Author) / Fisher, Rebecca (Thesis director) / Zhao, Yunpeng (Committee member) / Marvi, Hamid (Committee member) / School of Life Sciences (Contributor) / School of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2021-05
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Description

Dreadnought is a free-to-play multiplayer flight simulation in which two teams of 8 players each compete against one another to complete an objective. Each player controls a large-scale spaceship, various aspects of which can be customized to improve a player’s performance in a game. One such aspect is Officer Briefings,

Dreadnought is a free-to-play multiplayer flight simulation in which two teams of 8 players each compete against one another to complete an objective. Each player controls a large-scale spaceship, various aspects of which can be customized to improve a player’s performance in a game. One such aspect is Officer Briefings, which are passive abilities that grant ships additional capabilities. Two of these Briefings, known as Retaliator and Get My Good Side, have strong synergy when used together, which has led to the Dreadnought community’s claiming that the Briefings are too powerful and should be rebalanced to be more in line with the power levels of other Briefings. This study collected gameplay data with and without the use of these specific Officer Briefings to determine the precise impact on gameplay. Linear correlation matrices and inference on two means were used to determine performance impact. It was found that, although these Officer Briefings do improve an individual player’s performance in a game, they do not have a consistent impact on the player’s team performance, and that these Officer Briefings are therefore not in need of rebalancing.

ContributorsJacobs, Max I. (Author) / Schneider, Laurence (Thesis director) / Tran, Samantha (Committee member) / Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering Program (Contributor) / School of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2021-05
Description

This project uses SAS (Statistical Analysis Software) to create a regression model that provides a prediction for which NFL playoff team will win the Super Bowl in a given year.

ContributorsOleksyn, Alexander (Author) / Schneider, Laurence (Thesis director) / Hansen, Whitney (Committee member) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor) / Department of Psychology (Contributor) / School of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences (Contributor)
Created2023-05
Description

Career information for degrees in statistics and data science according to frequently asked questions and twelve major categories of interest: arts, business, education, engineering, environment, government, law, medicine, science, social science, sports, and technology.

ContributorsDerby-Lawson, Lili (Author) / Zheng, Yi (Thesis director) / Zhang, Helen (Committee member) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor) / School of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences (Contributor) / School of International Letters and Cultures (Contributor) / Economics Program in CLAS (Contributor) / School of Sustainability (Contributor)
Created2023-05