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Exploring the Relation Between NAV and Price of ETFs in Financial Markets

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Exchange traded funds (ETFs) in many ways are similar to more traditional closed-end mutual funds, although thee differ in a crucial way. ETFs rely on a creation and redemption feature to achieve their functionality and this mechanism is designed to

Exchange traded funds (ETFs) in many ways are similar to more traditional closed-end mutual funds, although thee differ in a crucial way. ETFs rely on a creation and redemption feature to achieve their functionality and this mechanism is designed to minimize the deviations that occur between the ETF’s listed price and the net asset value of the ETF’s underlying assets. However while this does cause ETF deviations to be generally lower than their mutual fund counterparts, as our paper explores this process does not eliminate these deviations completely. This article builds off an earlier paper by Engle and Sarkar (2006) that investigates these properties of premiums (discounts) of ETFs from their fair market value. And looks to see if these premia have changed in the last 10 years. Our paper then diverges from the original and takes a deeper look into the standard deviations of these premia specifically.

Our findings show that over 70% of an ETFs standard deviation of premia can be explained through a linear combination consisting of two variables: a categorical (Domestic[US], Developed, Emerging) and a discrete variable (time-difference from US). This paper also finds that more traditional metrics such as market cap, ETF price volatility, and even 3rd party market indicators such as the economic freedom index and investment freedom index are insignificant predictors of an ETFs standard deviation of premia when combined with the categorical variable. These findings differ somewhat from existing literature which indicate that these factors should have a significant impact on the predictive ability of an ETFs standard deviation of premia.

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Date Created
2019-05

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Analytics of the Prospect Draft in Major League Baseball

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Our research encompassed the prospect draft in baseball and looked at what type of player teams drafted to maximize value. We wanted to know which position returned the best value to the team that drafted them, and which level is

Our research encompassed the prospect draft in baseball and looked at what type of player teams drafted to maximize value. We wanted to know which position returned the best value to the team that drafted them, and which level is safer to draft players from, college or high school. We decided to look at draft data from 2006-2010 for the first ten rounds of players selected. Because there is only a monetary cap on players drafted in the first ten rounds we restricted our data to these players. Once we set up the parameters we compiled a spreadsheet of these players with both their signing bonuses and their wins above replacement (WAR). This allowed us to see how much a team was spending per win at the major league level. After the data was compiled we made pivot tables and graphs to visually represent our data and better understand the numbers. We found that the worst position that MLB teams could draft would be high school second baseman. They returned the lowest WAR of any player that we looked at. In general though high school players were more costly to sign and had lower WARs than their college counterparts making them, on average, a worse pick value wise. The best position you could pick was college shortstops. They had the trifecta of the best signability of all players, along with one of the highest WARs and lowest signing bonuses. These were three of the main factors that you want with your draft pick and they ranked near the top in all three categories. This research can help give guidelines to Major League teams as they go to select players in the draft. While there are always going to be exceptions to trends, by following the enclosed research teams can minimize risk in the draft.

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2017-05

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Statistical Properties of Coherent Structures in Two Dimensional Turbulence

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Coherent vortices are ubiquitous structures in natural flows that affect mixing and transport of substances and momentum/energy. Being able to detect these coherent structures is important for pollutant mitigation, ecological conservation and many other aspects. In recent years, mathematical criteria

Coherent vortices are ubiquitous structures in natural flows that affect mixing and transport of substances and momentum/energy. Being able to detect these coherent structures is important for pollutant mitigation, ecological conservation and many other aspects. In recent years, mathematical criteria and algorithms have been developed to extract these coherent structures in turbulent flows. In this study, we will apply these tools to extract important coherent structures and analyze their statistical properties as well as their implications on kinematics and dynamics of the flow. Such information will aide representation of small-scale nonlinear processes that large-scale models of natural processes may not be able to resolve.

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Created

Date Created
2018-05

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Valued Plate Appearance Index: Solving for the Contextual Error in Amateur Baseball Statistics

Description

Over the past several decades, analytics have become more and more prevalent in the game of baseball. Statistics are used in nearly every facet of the game. Each team develops its own processes, hoping to gain a competitive advantage over

Over the past several decades, analytics have become more and more prevalent in the game of baseball. Statistics are used in nearly every facet of the game. Each team develops its own processes, hoping to gain a competitive advantage over the rest of the league. One area of the game that has struggled to produce definitive analytics is amateur scouting. This project seeks to resolve this problem through the creation of a new statistic, Valued Plate Appearance Index (VPI). The problem is identified through analysis that was performed to determine whether any correlation exists between performances at the country's top amateur baseball league, the Cape Cod League, and performances in Major League Baseball. After several stats were analyzed, almost no correlation was determined between the two. This essentially means that teams have no way to statistically analyze Cape Cod League performance and project future statistics. An inherent contextual error in these amateur statistics prevents them from correlating. The project seeks to close that contextual gap and create concrete, encompassing values to illustrate a player's offensive performance in the Cape League. To solve for this problem, data was collected from the 2017 CCBL season. In addition to VPI, Valued Plate Appearance Approach (VPA) and Valued Plate Appearance Result (VPR) were created to better depict a player's all-around performance in each plate appearance. VPA values the quality of a player's approach in each plate appearance. VPR values the quality of the contact result, excluding factors out of the hitter's control. This statistic isolates player performance as well as eliminates luck that cannot normally be taken into account. This paper results in the segmentation of players from the 2017 CCBL into four different groups, which project how they will perform as they transition into professional baseball. These groups and the creation of these statistics could be essential tools in the evaluation and projection of amateur players by Major League clubs for years to come.

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Date Created
2017-12

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Marketing to Millennials Within the Airline and Finance Industries Across Cultures

Description

Millennials are the group of people that make up the newer generation of the world's population and they are constantly surrounded by technology, as well as known for having different values than the previous generations. Marketers have to adapt to

Millennials are the group of people that make up the newer generation of the world's population and they are constantly surrounded by technology, as well as known for having different values than the previous generations. Marketers have to adapt to newer ways to appeal to millennials and secure their loyalty since millennials are always on the lookout for the next best thing and will "trade up for brands that matter, but trade down when brand value is weak", it poses a challenge for the marketing departments of companies (Fromm, J. & Parks, J.). The airline industry is one of the fastest growing sectors as "the total number of people flying on U.S. airlines will increase from 745.5 million in 2014 and grow to 1.15 billion in 2034," which shows that airlines have a wider population to market to, and will need to improve their marketing strategies to differentiate from competitors (Power). The financial sector also has a difficult time reaching out to millennials because "millennials are hesitant to take financial risks," as well as downing in college debt, while not making as much money as previous generations (Fromm, J. & Parks, J.). By looking into the marketing strategies, specifically using social media platforms, of the two industries, an understanding can be gathered of what millennials are attracted to. Along with looking at the marketing strategies of financial and airline industries, I looked at the perspectives of these industries in different countries, which is important to look at because then we can see if the values of millennials vary across different cultures. Countries chosen for research to further examine their cultural differences in terms of marketing practices are the United States and England. The main form of marketing that was used for this research were social media accounts of the companies, and seeing how they used the social networking platforms to reach and engage with their consumers, especially with those of the millennial generation. The companies chosen for further research for the airline industry from England were British Airways, EasyJet, and Virgin Atlantic, while for the U.S. Delta Airlines, Inc., Southwest Airlines, and United were chosen. The companies chosen to further examine within the finance industry from England include Barclay's, HSBC, and Lloyd's Bank, while for the U.S. the banks selected were Bank of America, JPMorgan Chase, and Wells Fargo. The companies for this study were chosen because they are among the top five in their industry, as well as all companies that I have had previous interactions with. It was meant to see what the companies at the top of the industry were doing that set them apart from their competitors in terms of social media marketing content and see if there were features they lacked that could be changed or improvements they could make. A survey was also conducted to get a better idea of the attitudes and behaviors of millennials when it comes to the airline and finance industries, as well as towards social media marketing practices.

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Date Created
2016-05

A Fortune 100 Technology Company Collaborative Thesis: Third-Party Services \u2014 Optimizing Headcount

Description

The object of the present study is to examine methods in which the company can optimize their costs on third-party suppliers whom oversee other third-party trade labor. The third parties in scope of this study are suspected to overstaff their

The object of the present study is to examine methods in which the company can optimize their costs on third-party suppliers whom oversee other third-party trade labor. The third parties in scope of this study are suspected to overstaff their workforce, thus overcharging the company. We will introduce a complex spreadsheet model that will propose a proper project staffing level based on key qualitative variables and statistics. Using the model outputs, the Thesis team proposes a headcount solution for the company and problem areas to focus on, going forward. All sources of information come from company proprietary and confidential documents.

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Date Created
2014-05

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Prioritizing Projects on Time and Cost Savings for a more Efficient Manufacturing Process of a Semiconductor Company

Description

Over the course of six months, we have worked in partnership with Arizona State University and a leading producer of semiconductor chips in the United States market (referred to as the "Company"), lending our skills in finance, statistics, model building,

Over the course of six months, we have worked in partnership with Arizona State University and a leading producer of semiconductor chips in the United States market (referred to as the "Company"), lending our skills in finance, statistics, model building, and external insight. We attempt to design models that help predict how much time it takes to implement a cost-saving project. These projects had previously been considered only on the merit of cost savings, but with an added dimension of time, we hope to forecast time according to a number of variables. With such a forecast, we can then apply it to an expense project prioritization model which relates time and cost savings together, compares many different projects simultaneously, and returns a series of present value calculations over different ranges of time. The goal is twofold: assist with an accurate prediction of a project's time to implementation, and provide a basis to compare different projects based on their present values, ultimately helping to reduce the Company's manufacturing costs and improve gross margins. We believe this approach, and the research found toward this goal, is most valuable for the Company. Two coaches from the Company have provided assistance and clarified our questions when necessary throughout our research. In this paper, we begin by defining the problem, setting an objective, and establishing a checklist to monitor our progress. Next, our attention shifts to the data: making observations, trimming the dataset, framing and scoping the variables to be used for the analysis portion of the paper. Before creating a hypothesis, we perform a preliminary statistical analysis of certain individual variables to enrich our variable selection process. After the hypothesis, we run multiple linear regressions with project duration as the dependent variable. After regression analysis and a test for robustness, we shift our focus to an intuitive model based on rules of thumb. We relate these models to an expense project prioritization tool developed using Microsoft Excel software. Our deliverables to the Company come in the form of (1) a rules of thumb intuitive model and (2) an expense project prioritization tool.

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Date Created
2015-05

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Data Analysis of Jungle Pattern in League of Legends with Implications for Players and Game Developers

Description

League of Legends is a Multiplayer Online Battle Arena (MOBA) game. MOBA games are generally formatted where two teams of five, each player controlling a character (champion), will try to take each other's base as quickly as possible. Currently, with

League of Legends is a Multiplayer Online Battle Arena (MOBA) game. MOBA games are generally formatted where two teams of five, each player controlling a character (champion), will try to take each other's base as quickly as possible. Currently, with about 70 million, League of Legends is number one in the digital entertainment industry with $1.63 billion dollars of revenue in year 2015. This research analysis scopes in on the niche of the "Jungler" role between different tiers of player in League of Legends. I uncovered differences in player strategy that may explain the achievement of high rank using data aggregation through Riot Games' API, data slicing with time-sensitive data, random sampling, clustering by tiers, graphical techniques to display the cluster, distribution analysis and finally, a comprehensive factor analysis on the data's implications.

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Date Created
2016-05

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What is a “Good Economy”? Analysis of Economic Metrics & Their Political Impact on the United States

Description

The goal of this research paper is to analyze how we define economic success and how that affects large corporations and consumers. This paper asks the questions: What do we define as a good economy? What metrics are currently utilized?

The goal of this research paper is to analyze how we define economic success and how that affects large corporations and consumers. This paper asks the questions: What do we define as a good economy? What metrics are currently utilized? And how do perceptions of a good economy influence politics? Overall, the research seeks to identify common economic and financial fallacies held by the average citizen and offer alternative methods of how socio-economic information is presented to the consumers. Consumers play a major role in the market, and the information they receive has a considerable impact on their behaviors. Determining why the present economic analysis is used is the first step in finding ways to improve the system. Observing past political and economic trends and relating them to current issues is necessary for finding future solutions.

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Date Created
2020-05

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Using Stepwise Logistic Regression to Determine Substitutions in Baseball

Description

In baseball, a starting pitcher has historically been a more durable pitcher capable of lasting long into games without tiring. For the entire history of Major League Baseball, these pitchers have been expected to last 6 innings or more into

In baseball, a starting pitcher has historically been a more durable pitcher capable of lasting long into games without tiring. For the entire history of Major League Baseball, these pitchers have been expected to last 6 innings or more into a game before being replaced. However, with the advances in statistics and sabermetrics and their gradual acceptance by professional coaches, the role of the starting pitcher is beginning to change. Teams are experimenting with having starters being replaced quicker, challenging the traditional role of the starting pitcher. The goal of this study is to determine if there is an exact point at which a team would benefit from replacing a starting or relief pitcher with another pitcher using statistical analyses. We will use logistic stepwise regression to predict the likelihood of a team scoring a run if a substitution is made or not made given the current game situation.

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Created

Date Created
2019-05