Matching Items (169)

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Assessing the Economic Prosperity of Persons with Disabilities in American Cities

Description

We seek a comprehensive measurement for the economic prosperity of persons with disabilities. We survey the current literature and identify the major economic indicators used to describe the socioeconomic standing

We seek a comprehensive measurement for the economic prosperity of persons with disabilities. We survey the current literature and identify the major economic indicators used to describe the socioeconomic standing of persons with disabilities. We then develop a methodology for constructing a statistically valid composite index of these indicators, and build this index using data from the 2014 American Community Survey. Finally, we provide context for further use and development of the index and describe an example application of the index in practice.

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  • 2017-05

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Analytics of the Prospect Draft in Major League Baseball

Description

Our research encompassed the prospect draft in baseball and looked at what type of player teams drafted to maximize value. We wanted to know which position returned the best value

Our research encompassed the prospect draft in baseball and looked at what type of player teams drafted to maximize value. We wanted to know which position returned the best value to the team that drafted them, and which level is safer to draft players from, college or high school. We decided to look at draft data from 2006-2010 for the first ten rounds of players selected. Because there is only a monetary cap on players drafted in the first ten rounds we restricted our data to these players. Once we set up the parameters we compiled a spreadsheet of these players with both their signing bonuses and their wins above replacement (WAR). This allowed us to see how much a team was spending per win at the major league level. After the data was compiled we made pivot tables and graphs to visually represent our data and better understand the numbers. We found that the worst position that MLB teams could draft would be high school second baseman. They returned the lowest WAR of any player that we looked at. In general though high school players were more costly to sign and had lower WARs than their college counterparts making them, on average, a worse pick value wise. The best position you could pick was college shortstops. They had the trifecta of the best signability of all players, along with one of the highest WARs and lowest signing bonuses. These were three of the main factors that you want with your draft pick and they ranked near the top in all three categories. This research can help give guidelines to Major League teams as they go to select players in the draft. While there are always going to be exceptions to trends, by following the enclosed research teams can minimize risk in the draft.

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  • 2017-05

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Relationship Between College Baseball Conferences and Average Offensive Production of Major League Baseball Players

Description

Beginning with the publication of Moneyball by Michael Lewis in 2003, the use of sabermetrics \u2014 the application of statistical analysis to baseball records - has exploded in major league

Beginning with the publication of Moneyball by Michael Lewis in 2003, the use of sabermetrics \u2014 the application of statistical analysis to baseball records - has exploded in major league front offices. Executives Billy Beane, Paul DePoedesta, and Theo Epstein are notable figures that have been successful in incorporating sabermetrics to their team's philosophy, resulting in playoff appearances and championship success. The competitive market of baseball, once dominated by the collusion of owners, now promotes innovative thought to analytically develop competitive advantages. The tiered economic payrolls of Major League Baseball (MLB) has created an environment in which large-market teams are capable of "buying" championships through the acquisition of the best available talent in free agency, and small-market teams are pushed to "build" championships through the drafting and systematic farming of high-school and college level players. The use of sabermetrics promotes both models of success \u2014 buying and building \u2014 by unbiasedly determining a player's productivity. The objective of this paper is to develop a regression-based predictive model that can be used by Majors League Baseball teams to forecast the MLB career average offensive performance of college baseball players from specific conferences. The development of this model required multiple tasks: I. Data was obtained from The Baseball Cube, a baseball records database providing both College and MLB data. II. Modifications to the data were applied to adjust for year-to-year formatting, a missing variable for seasons played, the presence of missing values, and to correct league identifiers. III. Evaluation of multiple offensive productivity models capable of handling the obtained dataset and regression forecasting technique. IV. SAS software was used to create the regression models and analyze the residuals for any irregularities or normality violations. The results of this paper find that there is a relationship between Division 1 collegiate baseball conferences and average career offensive productivity in Major Leagues Baseball, with the SEC having the most accurate reflection of performance.

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  • 2017-05

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Comparison of Regression and Tree Analyses for Predicting Alcohol-Related Problems

Description

Problems related to alcohol consumption cause not only extra economic expenses, but are an expense to the health of both drinkers and non-drinkers due to the harm directly and indirectly

Problems related to alcohol consumption cause not only extra economic expenses, but are an expense to the health of both drinkers and non-drinkers due to the harm directly and indirectly caused by alcohol consumption. Investigating predictors and reasons for alcohol-related problems is of importance, as alcohol-related problems could be prevented by quitting or limiting consumption of alcohol. We were interested in predicting alcohol-related problems using multiple linear regression and regression trees, and then comparing the regressions to the tree. Impaired control, anxiety sensitivity, mother permissiveness, father permissiveness, gender, and age were included as predictors. The data used was comprised of participants (n=835) sampled from students at Arizona State University. A multiple linear regression without interactions, multiple linear regression with two-way interactions and squares, and a regression tree were used and compared. The regression and the tree had similar results. Multiple interactions of variables predicted alcohol-related problems. Overall, the tree was easier to interpret than the regressions, however, the regressions provided specific predicted alcohol-related problems scores, whereas the tree formed large groups and had a predicted alcohol-related problems score for each group. Nevertheless, the tree still predicted alcohol-related problems nearly as well, if not better than the regressions.

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Date Created
  • 2016-12

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A Model of Nanoparticle Dispersion in Electrospun Nanofibers

Description

Polymer-nanoparticle composites (PNCs) show improved chemical and physical properties compared to pure polymers. However, nanoparticles dispersed in a polymer matrix tend to aggregate due to strong interparticle interactions. Electrospun nanofibers

Polymer-nanoparticle composites (PNCs) show improved chemical and physical properties compared to pure polymers. However, nanoparticles dispersed in a polymer matrix tend to aggregate due to strong interparticle interactions. Electrospun nanofibers impregnated with nanoparticles have shown improved dispersion of nanoparticles. Currently, there are few models for quantifying dispersion in a PNC, and none for electrospun PNC fibers. A simulation model was developed to quantify the effects of nanoparticle volume loading and fiber to particle diameter ratios on the dispersion in a nanofiber. The dispersion was characterized using the interparticle distance along the fiber. Distributions of the interparticle distance were fit to Weibull distributions and a two-parameter empirical equation for the mean and standard deviation was found. A dispersion factor was defined to quantify the dispersion along the polymer fiber. This model serves as a standard for comparison for future experimental studies through its comparability with microscopy techniques, and as way to quantify and predict dispersion in polymer-nanoparticle electrospinning systems with a single performance metric.

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Date Created
  • 2016-12

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The Benefits and Application of Statistical Process Control in a Manufacturing Environment

Description

Statistical process control (SPC) is an important quality application that is used throughout industry and is composed of control charts. Most often, it is applied in the final stages of

Statistical process control (SPC) is an important quality application that is used throughout industry and is composed of control charts. Most often, it is applied in the final stages of product manufacturing. However it would be beneficial to apply SPC throughout all stages of the manufacturing process such as the beginning stages. This report explores the fundamentals of SPC, applicable programs, important aspects of implementation, and specific examples of where SPC was beneficial. Important programs for SPC are general statistical software such as JMP and Minitab, and some programs are made specifically for SPC such as SPACE: statistical process and control environment. Advanced programs like SPACE are beneficial because they can easily assist with creating control charts and setting up rules, alarms and notifications, and reaction mechanisms. After the charts are set up it is important to apply rules to the charts to see when a system is running off target which indicates the need to troubleshoot and investigate. This makes the notification part an integral aspect as well because attention and awareness must be brought to out of control situations. The next important aspect is ensuring there is a reaction mechanism or plan on what to do in the event of an out of control situation and what to do to get the system running back on target. Setting up an SPC system takes time and practice and requires a lot of collaboration with experts who know more about the system or the quality side. Some of the more difficult parts of implementation is getting everyone on board and creating trainings and getting the appropriate personnel trained.

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Date Created
  • 2016-12

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Reddit Predicts Swings in the Stock Market: r/WorldNews and Using Machine Learning to Predict Changes in Stock Price

Description

In this paper, I will show that news headlines of global events can predict changes in stock price by using Machine Learning and eight years of data from r/WorldNews, a

In this paper, I will show that news headlines of global events can predict changes in stock price by using Machine Learning and eight years of data from r/WorldNews, a popular forum on Reddit.com. My data is confined to the top 25 daily posts on the forum, and due to the implicit filtering mechanism in the online community, these 25 posts are representative of the most popular news headlines and influential global events of the day. Hence, these posts shine a light on how large-scale social and political events affect the stock market. Using a Logistic Regression and a Naive Bayes classifier, I am able to predict with approximately 85% accuracy a binary change in stock price using term-feature vectors gathered from the news headlines. The accuracy, precision and recall results closely rival the best models in this field of research. In addition to the results, I will also describe the mathematical underpinnings of the two models; preceded by a general investigation of the intersection between the multiple academic disciplines related to this project. These range from social to computer science and from statistics to philosophy. The goal of this additional discussion is to further illustrate the interdisciplinary nature of the research and hopefully inspire a non-monolithic mindset when further investigations are pursued.

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Date Created
  • 2016-12

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Statistical Properties of Coherent Structures in Two Dimensional Turbulence

Description

Coherent vortices are ubiquitous structures in natural flows that affect mixing and transport of substances and momentum/energy. Being able to detect these coherent structures is important for pollutant mitigation, ecological

Coherent vortices are ubiquitous structures in natural flows that affect mixing and transport of substances and momentum/energy. Being able to detect these coherent structures is important for pollutant mitigation, ecological conservation and many other aspects. In recent years, mathematical criteria and algorithms have been developed to extract these coherent structures in turbulent flows. In this study, we will apply these tools to extract important coherent structures and analyze their statistical properties as well as their implications on kinematics and dynamics of the flow. Such information will aide representation of small-scale nonlinear processes that large-scale models of natural processes may not be able to resolve.

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Created

Date Created
  • 2018-05

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Jump Dynamics

Description

There are multiple mathematical models for alignment of individuals moving within a group. In a first class of models, individuals tend to relax their velocity toward the average velocity of

There are multiple mathematical models for alignment of individuals moving within a group. In a first class of models, individuals tend to relax their velocity toward the average velocity of other nearby neighbors. These types of models are motivated by the flocking behavior exhibited by birds. Another class of models have been introduced to describe rapid changes of individual velocity, referred to as jump, which better describes behavior of smaller agents (e.g. locusts, ants). In the second class of model, individuals will randomly choose to align with another nearby individual, matching velocities. There are several open questions concerning these two type of behavior: which behavior is the most efficient to create a flock (i.e. to converge toward the same velocity)? Will flocking still emerge when the number of individuals approach infinity? Analysis of these models show that, in the homogeneous case where all individuals are capable of interacting with each other, the variance of the velocities in both the jump model and the relaxation model decays to 0 exponentially for any nonzero number of individuals. This implies the individuals in the system converge to an absorbing state where all individuals share the same velocity, therefore individuals converge to a flock even as the number of individuals approach infinity. Further analysis focused on the case where interactions between individuals were determined by an adjacency matrix. The second eigenvalues of the Laplacian of this adjacency matrix (denoted ƛ2) provided a lower bound on the rate of decay of the variance. When ƛ2 is nonzero, the system is said to converge to a flock almost surely. Furthermore, when the adjacency matrix is generated by a random graph, such that connections between individuals are formed with probability p (where 01/N. ƛ2 is a good estimator of the rate of convergence of the system, in comparison to the value of p used to generate the adjacency matrix..

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Date Created
  • 2018-05

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Valued Plate Appearance Index: Solving for the Contextual Error in Amateur Baseball Statistics

Description

Over the past several decades, analytics have become more and more prevalent in the game of baseball. Statistics are used in nearly every facet of the game. Each team develops

Over the past several decades, analytics have become more and more prevalent in the game of baseball. Statistics are used in nearly every facet of the game. Each team develops its own processes, hoping to gain a competitive advantage over the rest of the league. One area of the game that has struggled to produce definitive analytics is amateur scouting. This project seeks to resolve this problem through the creation of a new statistic, Valued Plate Appearance Index (VPI). The problem is identified through analysis that was performed to determine whether any correlation exists between performances at the country's top amateur baseball league, the Cape Cod League, and performances in Major League Baseball. After several stats were analyzed, almost no correlation was determined between the two. This essentially means that teams have no way to statistically analyze Cape Cod League performance and project future statistics. An inherent contextual error in these amateur statistics prevents them from correlating. The project seeks to close that contextual gap and create concrete, encompassing values to illustrate a player's offensive performance in the Cape League. To solve for this problem, data was collected from the 2017 CCBL season. In addition to VPI, Valued Plate Appearance Approach (VPA) and Valued Plate Appearance Result (VPR) were created to better depict a player's all-around performance in each plate appearance. VPA values the quality of a player's approach in each plate appearance. VPR values the quality of the contact result, excluding factors out of the hitter's control. This statistic isolates player performance as well as eliminates luck that cannot normally be taken into account. This paper results in the segmentation of players from the 2017 CCBL into four different groups, which project how they will perform as they transition into professional baseball. These groups and the creation of these statistics could be essential tools in the evaluation and projection of amateur players by Major League clubs for years to come.

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Date Created
  • 2017-12