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Brazilian Civil-Military Relations: Military Coup Risk Analysis

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This thesis deals primarily with contemporary Brazilian civil-military relations. For most of the 20th century Brazil’s political system was stuck in a cycle of repeated military intervention. At present, Brazil

This thesis deals primarily with contemporary Brazilian civil-military relations. For most of the 20th century Brazil’s political system was stuck in a cycle of repeated military intervention. At present, Brazil operates as an electoral democracy and has kept the military out of politics since 1985. In order to understand the likelihood of another coup d’état, this thesis considers threats to the military’s corporate interests and deflations of the government’s political legitimacy within Brazil. Given the lack of significant threats to the military’s self-interest and the absence of serious legitimacy deflations, the Brazilian government appears unlikely to have a coup d’état in the near future. It is, however, important to remember that the 2014 World Cup and 2016 Summer Olympics could challenge Brazil’s current political stability and alter the likelihood of military intervention.

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  • 2014-05

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The Demise of the Montoneros: Divisions in Peronismo

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In September 1974, a guerrilla organization called the Montoneros captured Juan and Jorge Born, two Argentinean heirs to a massive food processing conglomerate, and held them for ransom. After months

In September 1974, a guerrilla organization called the Montoneros captured Juan and Jorge Born, two Argentinean heirs to a massive food processing conglomerate, and held them for ransom. After months of negotiations between this radical political group and the brothers' family, the Montoneros received $61.5 million dollars for the brothers' re- lease. Other kidnappings followed, netting the revolutionaries close to $100 million dol- lars. Although their tactics initially brought them recognition, they also unleashed a vio- lent response. Through a military coup, General Jorge Videla assumed power and used counterinsurgency tactics against the radical left wing of the Peronist party members. The coming years of military repression put an end to the revolutionary efforts of the Mon- toneros and gave the military leaders a reputation of violators of human rights. Even the Argentine people called the repression the "Dirty War," and investigations estimate that 30,000 people, the Montoneros among them, disappeared.

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  • 2012-12