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Catastrophe events occur rather infrequently, but upon their occurrence, can lead to colossal losses for insurance companies. Due to their size and volatility, catastrophe losses are often treated separately from other insurance losses. In fact, many property and casualty insurance companies feature a department or team which focuses solely on

Catastrophe events occur rather infrequently, but upon their occurrence, can lead to colossal losses for insurance companies. Due to their size and volatility, catastrophe losses are often treated separately from other insurance losses. In fact, many property and casualty insurance companies feature a department or team which focuses solely on modeling catastrophes. Setting reserves for catastrophe losses is difficult due to their unpredictable and often long-tailed nature. Determining loss development factors (LDFs) to estimate the ultimate loss amounts for catastrophe events is one method for setting reserves. In an attempt to aid Company XYZ set more accurate reserves, the research conducted focuses on estimating LDFs for catastrophes which have already occurred and have been settled. Furthermore, the research describes the process used to build a linear model in R to estimate LDFs for Company XYZ's closed catastrophe claims from 2001 \u2014 2016. This linear model was used to predict a catastrophe's LDFs based on the age in weeks of the catastrophe during the first year. Back testing was also performed, as was the comparison between the estimated ultimate losses and actual losses. Future research consideration was proposed.
ContributorsSwoverland, Robert Bo (Author) / Milovanovic, Jelena (Thesis director) / Zicarelli, John (Committee member) / School of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2018-05
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Description
Many fear that the growth of automation and artificial intelligence will lead to massive unemployment since human labor would no longer be needed. Although automation does displace workers from their current jobs, it is unclear the total net effect on jobs this period of advancement will have. One possible solution

Many fear that the growth of automation and artificial intelligence will lead to massive unemployment since human labor would no longer be needed. Although automation does displace workers from their current jobs, it is unclear the total net effect on jobs this period of advancement will have. One possible solution to help displaced workers is a Universal Basic Income. A Universal Basic Income(UBI) is a set payment paid to all members of society regardless of working status. Compared to current unemployment programs, a Universal Basic Income does not restrict participants in how to spend the money and is more inclusive. This paper examines the effects of a UBI on a person's motivation to work through a study on current college students. There is reason to believe that a Universal Basic Income will lead to fewer people working as people may become dependent on a base payment to meet their basic needs and not look for work. In addition, some people may drop out of their current jobs and rely on a UBI as their main form of income. The current literature does not offer a consensus opinion on this relationship and more studies are being completed with the threat of mass unemployment looming. This study shows the effects of a UBI on participants' willingness to work and then applies these results to the current economic model. With these results and new economic model, a decision about future policies surrounding a UBI can be made.
ContributorsAgarwal, Raghav (Author) / Pulido Hernadez, Carlos (Thesis director) / Foster, William (Committee member) / School of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences (Contributor) / Department of Economics (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2018-05
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Description
With the coming advances of computational power, algorithmic trading has become one of the primary strategies to trading on the stock market. To understand why and how these strategies have been effective, this project has taken a look at the complete process of creating tools and applications to analyze and

With the coming advances of computational power, algorithmic trading has become one of the primary strategies to trading on the stock market. To understand why and how these strategies have been effective, this project has taken a look at the complete process of creating tools and applications to analyze and predict stock prices in order to perform low-frequency trading. The project is composed of three main components. The first component is integrating several public resources to acquire and process financial trading data and store it in order to complete the other components. Alpha Vantage API, a free open source application, provides an accurate and comprehensive dataset of features for each stock ticker requested. The second component is researching, prototyping, and implementing various trading algorithms in code. We began by focusing on the Mean Reversion algorithm as a proof of concept algorithm to develop meaningful trading strategies and identify patterns within our datasets. To augment our market prediction power (“alpha”), we implemented a Long Short-Term Memory recurrent neural network. Neural Networks are an incredibly effective but often complex tool used frequently in data science when traditional methods are found lacking. Following the implementation, the last component is to optimize, analyze, compare, and contrast all of the algorithms and identify key features to conclude the overall effectiveness of each algorithm. We were able to identify conclusively which aspects of each algorithm provided better alpha and create an entire pipeline to automate this process for live trading implementation. An additional reason for automation is to provide an educational framework such that any who may be interested in quantitative finance in the future can leverage this project to gain further insight.
ContributorsYurowkin, Alexander (Co-author) / Kumar, Rohit (Co-author) / Welfert, Bruno (Thesis director) / Li, Baoxin (Committee member) / Economics Program in CLAS (Contributor) / School of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2019-05
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Description
AARP estimates that 90% of seniors wish to remain in their homes during retirement. Seniors need assistance as they age, historically they have received assistance from either family members, nursing homes, or Continuing Care Retirement Communities. For seniors not wanting any of these options, there has been very few alternatives.

AARP estimates that 90% of seniors wish to remain in their homes during retirement. Seniors need assistance as they age, historically they have received assistance from either family members, nursing homes, or Continuing Care Retirement Communities. For seniors not wanting any of these options, there has been very few alternatives. Now, the emergence of the continuing care at home program is providing hope for a different method of elder care moving forward. CCaH programs offer services such as: skilled nursing care, care coordination, emergency response systems, aid with personal and health care, and transportation. Such services allow seniors to continue to live in their own home with assistance as their health deteriorates over time. Currently, only 30 CCaH programs exist. With the growth of the elderly population in the coming years, this model seems poised for growth.
ContributorsSturm, Brendan (Author) / Milovanovic, Jelena (Thesis director) / Hassett, Matthew (Committee member) / School of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences (Contributor) / Economics Program in CLAS (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2019-05
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Description
A factor accounting for the COVID-19 pandemic was added to a generalized linear model to more accurately predict unpaid claims. COVID-19 has affected not just healthcare, but all sectors of the economy. Because of this, whether or not an automobile insurance claim is filed during the pandemic needs to be

A factor accounting for the COVID-19 pandemic was added to a generalized linear model to more accurately predict unpaid claims. COVID-19 has affected not just healthcare, but all sectors of the economy. Because of this, whether or not an automobile insurance claim is filed during the pandemic needs to be taken into account while estimating unpaid claims. Reserve-estimating functions such as glmReserve from the “ChainLadder” package in the statistical software R were experimented with to produce their own results. Because of their insufficiency, a manual approach to building the model turned out to be the most proficient method. Utilizing the GLM function, a model was built that emulated linear regression with a factor for COVID-19. The effects of such a model are analyzed based on effectiveness and interpretablility. A model such as this would prove useful for future calculations, especially as society is now returning to a “normal” state.
ContributorsKossler, Patrick (Author) / Zicarelli, John (Thesis director) / Milovanovic, Jelena (Committee member) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor) / School of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences (Contributor)
Created2022-05
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Description

The objective of this study is to build a model using R and RStudio that automates ratemaking procedures for Company XYZ’s actuaries in their commercial general liability pricing department. The purpose and importance of this objective is to allow actuaries to work more efficiently and effectively by using this model

The objective of this study is to build a model using R and RStudio that automates ratemaking procedures for Company XYZ’s actuaries in their commercial general liability pricing department. The purpose and importance of this objective is to allow actuaries to work more efficiently and effectively by using this model that outputs the results they otherwise would have had to code and calculate on their own. Instead of spending time working towards these results, the actuaries can analyze the findings, strategize accordingly, and communicate with business partners. The model was built from R code that was later transformed to Shiny, a package within RStudio that allows for the build-up of interactive web applications. The final result is a Shiny app that first takes in multiple datasets from Company XYZ’s data warehouse and displays different views of the data in order for actuaries to make selections on development and trend methods. The app outputs the re-created ratemaking exhibits showing the resulting developed and trended loss and premium as well as the experience-based indicated rate level change based on prior selections. The ratemaking process and Shiny app functionality will be detailed in this report.

ContributorsGilkey, Gina (Author) / Zicarelli, John (Thesis director) / Milovanovic, Jelena (Committee member) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor) / School of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences (Contributor)
Created2022-05