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- All Subjects: Finance
- Creators: Tserlukevich, Yuri
Description
I show that firms' ability to adjust variable capital in response to productivity shocks has important implications for the interpretation of the widely documented investment-cash flow sensitivities. The variable capital adjustment is sufficient for firms to capture small variations in profitability, but when the revision in profitability is relatively large, limited substitutability between the factors of production may call for fixed capital investment. Hence, firms with lower substitutability are more likely to invest in both factors together and have larger sensitivities of fixed capital investment to cash flow. By building a frictionless capital markets model that allows firms to optimize over fixed capital and inventories as substitutable factors, I establish the significance of the substitutability channel in explaining cross-sectional differences in cash flow sensitivities. Moreover, incorporating variable capital into firms' investment decisions helps explain the sharp decrease in cash flow sensitivities over the past decades. Empirical evidence confirms the model's predictions.
ContributorsKim, Kirak (Author) / Bates, Thomas (Thesis advisor) / Babenko, Ilona (Thesis advisor) / Hertzel, Michael (Committee member) / Tserlukevich, Yuri (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2013
Description
In the first chapter, I develop a representative agent model in which the purchase of consumption goods must be planned in advance. Volatility in the agent's portfolio increases the risk that a purchase cannot be implemented. This implementation risk causes the agent to make conservative consumption plans. In the model, this leads to persistent and negatively skewed consumption growth and a slow reaction of consumption to wealth shocks. The model proposes a novel explanation for the negative relation between volatility and expected utility. In equilibrium, prices of risky assets must compensate for the utility loss. Hence, the model suggests a new mechanism for generating the equity risk premium. Importantly, because implementation risk does not rely on the co-movement of asset prices with marginal utility, the resulting equity premium does not require concavity of the intratemporal utility function.
In the second chapter, I challenge the view that equity market timing always benefits
shareholders. By distinguishing the effect of a firm's equity decisions from the effect of mispricing itself, I show that market timing can decrease shareholder value. Additionally, the timing of equity sales has a more negative effect on existing shareholders than the timing of share repurchases. My theory can be used to infer firms' maximization objectives from their observed market timing strategies. I argue that the popularity of stock buybacks, the low frequency of seasoned equity offerings, and the observed post-event stock returns are consistent with managers maximizing current shareholder value.
In the second chapter, I challenge the view that equity market timing always benefits
shareholders. By distinguishing the effect of a firm's equity decisions from the effect of mispricing itself, I show that market timing can decrease shareholder value. Additionally, the timing of equity sales has a more negative effect on existing shareholders than the timing of share repurchases. My theory can be used to infer firms' maximization objectives from their observed market timing strategies. I argue that the popularity of stock buybacks, the low frequency of seasoned equity offerings, and the observed post-event stock returns are consistent with managers maximizing current shareholder value.
ContributorsWan, Pengcheng (Author) / Boguth, Oliver (Thesis advisor) / Tserlukevich, Yuri (Thesis advisor) / Babenka, Ilona (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2015
Description
By matching a CEO's place of residence in his or her formative years with U.S. Census survey data, I obtain an estimate of the CEO's family wealth and study the link between the CEO's endowed social status and firm performance. I find that, on average, CEOs born into poor families outperform those born into wealthy families, as measured by a variety of proxies for firm performance. There is no evidence of higher risk-taking by the CEOs from low social status backgrounds. Further, CEOs from less privileged families perform better in firms with high R&D spending but they underperform CEOs from wealthy families when firms operate in a more uncertain environment. Taken together, my results show that endowed family wealth of a CEO is useful in identifying his or her managerial ability.
ContributorsDu, Fangfang (Author) / Babenko, Ilona (Thesis advisor) / Bates, Thomas (Thesis advisor) / Tserlukevich, Yuri (Committee member) / Wang, Jessie (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2018
Description
For this thesis, the authors would like to create a hypothetical Private Equity Real Estate Investment firm that focuses on creating value for partners by taking an opportunistic approach to acquiring under-performing urban multi-family properties with large upside potential for investing. The project will focus on both the market analysis and financial modeling associated with investment strategy and transactions. There is a substantial amount of complexity within commercial real estate and this thesis seeks to offer an accurate and comprehensive documentary of the process, while simplifying it for everyday readers. Additionally, there are a significant amount of risk factors associated with investment decisions, so the best practices from the industry documented in this manuscript are valuable tools for successful investing in the future. To gain the most profound and reliable industry knowledge, the authors leveraged the experience of dozens of industry professionals through research and personal interviews. Through careful analysis, the authors were able to ascertain the current economic position in the real estate cycle and to create a plan for future investing. Additionally, they were able to identify and evaluate a specific asset for purchase. As a result, the authors found that multifamily properties are a sound investment for the next two years and that the company should slowly start to shift directions to office and retail in 2018.
ContributorsBacon, David (Co-author) / Soto, Justin (Co-author) / Kashiwagi, Dean (Thesis director) / Kashiwagi, Jacob (Committee member) / Department of Finance (Contributor) / Department of Supply Chain Management (Contributor) / Department of Marketing (Contributor) / W. P. Carey School of Business (Contributor) / School of Accountancy (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2016-05
Description
The current model of revenue generation for some free to play video games is preventing the companies controlling them from growing, but with a few changes in approach these issues could be alleviated. A new style of video games, called a MOBA (Massive Online Battle Arena) has emerged in the past few years bringing with it a new style of generating wealth. Contrary to past gaming models, where users must either purchase the game outright, view advertisements, or purchase items to gain a competitive advantage, MOBAs require no payment of any kind. These are free to play computer games that provides users with all the tools necessary to compete with anyone free of charge; no advantages can be purchased in this game. This leaves the only way for users to provide money to the company through optional purchases of purely aesthetic items, only to be purchased if the buyer wishes to see their character in a different set of attire. The genre’s best in show—called League of Legends, or LOL—has spearheaded this method of revenue-generation. Fortunately for LOL, its level of popularity has reached levels never seen in video games: the world championships had more viewers than game 7 of the NBA Finals (Dorsey). The player base alone is enough to keep the company afloat currently, but the fact that they only convert 3.75% of the players into revenue is alarming. Each player brings the company an average of $1.32, or 30% of what some other free to play games earn per user (Comparing MMO). It is this low per player income that has caused Riot Games, the developer of LOL, to state that their e-sports division is not currently profitable. To resolve this issue, LOL must take on a more aggressive marketing plan. Advertisements for the NBA Finals cost $460,000 for 30 seconds, and LOL should aim for ads in this range (Lombardo). With an average of 3 million people logged on at any time, 90% of the players being male and 85% being between the ages of 16 and 30, advertising via this game would appeal to many companies, making a deal easy to strike (LOL infographic 2012). The idea also appeals to players: 81% of players surveyed said that an advertisement on the client that allows for the option to place an order would improve or not impact their experience. Moving forward with this, the gaming client would be updated to contain both an option to order pizza and an advertisement for Mountain Dew. This type of advertising was determined based on community responses through a sequence of survey questions. These small adjustments to the game would allow LOL to generate enough income for Riot Games to expand into other areas of the e-sports industry.
ContributorsSeip, Patrick (Co-author) / Zhao, BoNing (Co-author) / Kashiwagi, Dean (Thesis director) / Kashiwagi, Jacob (Committee member) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor) / Sandra Day O'Connor College of Law (Contributor) / Department of Economics (Contributor) / Department of Supply Chain Management (Contributor)
Created2015-05
Description
Dr. Dean Kashiwagi created a new thinking paradigm, Information Measurement Theory (IMT), which utilizes the understanding of natural laws to help individuals minimize decision-making and risk, which leads to reduced stress. In this new paradigm, any given situation can only have one unique outcome. The more information an individual has for the given situation, the better they can predict the outcome. Using IMT can help correctly "predict the future" of any situation if given enough of the correct information. A prime example of using IMT would be: to correctly predict what a young woman will be like when she's older, simply look at the young woman's mother. In essence, if you can't fall in love with the mother, don't marry the young woman. The researchers are utilizing the concept of IMT and extrapolating it to the financial investing world. They researched different financial investing strategies and were able to come to the conclusion that a strategy utilizing IMT would yield the highest results for investors while minimizing stress. Investors using deductive logic to invest received, on average, 1300% more returns than investors who did not over a 25-year period. Where other investors made many decisions and were constantly stressed with the tribulations of the market, the investors utilizing IMT made one decision and made much more than other investors. The research confirms the stock market will continue to increase over time by looking at the history of the stock market from a birds-eye view. Throughout the existence of the stock market, there have been highs and lows, but at the end of the day, the market continues to break through new ceilings. Investing in the stock market can be a dark and scary place for the blind investor. Using the concept of IMT can eliminate that blindfold to reduce stress on investors while earning the highest financial return potential. Using the basis of IMT, the researchers predict the market will continue to increase in the future; in conclusion, the best investment strategy is to invest in blue chip stocks that have a history of past success, in order to capture secure growth with minimal risk and stress.
ContributorsBerns, Ryan (Co-author) / Ybanez, Julian (Co-author) / Kashiwagi, Dean (Thesis director) / Kashiwagi, Jacob (Committee member) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor) / Department of Finance (Contributor) / Department of Marketing (Contributor) / W. P. Carey School of Business (Contributor)
Created2015-05
Description
The purpose of this research is to gain a deeper understanding of the often-despised financial sector while exploring the parallels it reflects in our society. Information Measurement Theory was applied to several aspects of life apparent in both the financial sector and our society in order to discover parallels present in both. By analyzing the financial sector against our society as a whole, it becomes apparent that the financial sector's composition of individuals reflects that of our societies and is a close representation. Further, the financial sector is able to reflect the importance of information and how individuals react to and justify good and bad results from decision-making. In all our despise of the financial sector is nothing more than the loathe of inherent flaws in our society as a whole.
ContributorsHappe, John Nicholas (Author) / Kashiwagi, Dean (Thesis director) / Sullivan, Kenneth (Committee member) / Barlish, Kristen (Committee member) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor) / Department of Finance (Contributor) / Sandra Day O'Connor College of Law (Contributor) / Department of Psychology (Contributor)
Created2013-05
Description
Abstract The purpose of this project is to utilize the models and concepts from Information Measurement Theory (IMT) to help minimize future decision making with respect to my career path. When I began this project, my future was clouded, my initial conditions were unknown, my stress over future career-path decisions was high, and I had eight possible career paths in mind. I have narrowed my career-path options from eight to four. In addition, I have determined a one-year plan that enables me to be prepared to pursue any of the four career paths that I have found align with me. In this project, I explored my dominant initial conditions with respect to my career path. I tracked the job history of my grandparents and parents. These efforts allowed me to identify the strengths and weaknesses that I was exhibiting by the age of three. Natural law dictates that the strengths and weaknesses of my younger self will be the same strengths and weakness that I excel at and struggle with today. I then used my understanding of natural law and the event model process to map the strengths and weaknesses of my parents and grandparents and to compare and contrast these to my strengths and weaknesses, including those that were apparent by the time that I was three years old. Focusing in on what I really want from a job, four main goals were established to grade the various future career-path options. Finally, I documented my transition from uncertainty to clarity. It began with my sobriety and ended with a milestone one-year plan that will give me information that I need to commit to my career path. This transition has had significant impact. The elusive "who am I" has been addressed, not completely but addressed sufficiently so that the question no longer plagues me. I know from where I have come. I have gained significant insight from those around me who know me. All of this has been documented for my own personal use, and for my children someday. This process permitted me to eliminate outliers from my eight original career paths, reducing them to four. In addition, application of IMT models and concepts has allowed me to see one year into the future. With my new-found knowledge, I will listen and watch the doors close on three of the remaining four career paths, as there is only one path I am meant to take.
ContributorsRichardson, Trevor Woods (Author) / Kashiwagi, Dean (Thesis director) / Kashiwagi, Jacob (Committee member) / Industrial, Systems (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor) / Del E. Webb Construction (Contributor)
Created2014-05
Description
This dissertation consists of two essays on corporate policy. The first chapter analyzes whether being labeled a “growth” firm or a “value” firm affects the firm’s dividend policy. I focus on the dividend policy because of its discretionary nature and the link to investor demand. To address endogeneity concerns, I use regression discontinuity design around the threshold to assign firms to each category. The results show that “value” firms have a significantly higher dividend payout - about four percentage points - than growth firms. This approach establishes a causal link between firm “growth/value” labels and dividend policy.
The second chapter develops investment policy model which associated with du- ration of cash flow. Firms are doing their business by operating a portfolio of projects that have various duration, and the duration of the project portfolio generates dif- ferent duration of cash flow stream. By assuming the duration of cash flow as a firm specific characteristic, this paper analyzes how the duration of cash flow affects firms’ investment decision. I develop a model of investment, external finance, and savings to characterize how firms’ decision is affected by the duration of cash flow. Firms maximize total value of cash flow, while they have to maintain their solvency by paying a fixed cost for the operation. I empirically confirm the positive correlation between duration of cash flow and investment with theoretical support. Financial constraint suffocates the firm when they face solvency issue, so that model with financial constraint shows that the correlation between duration of cash flow and investment is stronger than low financial constraint case.
The second chapter develops investment policy model which associated with du- ration of cash flow. Firms are doing their business by operating a portfolio of projects that have various duration, and the duration of the project portfolio generates dif- ferent duration of cash flow stream. By assuming the duration of cash flow as a firm specific characteristic, this paper analyzes how the duration of cash flow affects firms’ investment decision. I develop a model of investment, external finance, and savings to characterize how firms’ decision is affected by the duration of cash flow. Firms maximize total value of cash flow, while they have to maintain their solvency by paying a fixed cost for the operation. I empirically confirm the positive correlation between duration of cash flow and investment with theoretical support. Financial constraint suffocates the firm when they face solvency issue, so that model with financial constraint shows that the correlation between duration of cash flow and investment is stronger than low financial constraint case.
ContributorsLee, Tae Eui (Author) / Mehra, Rajnish (Thesis advisor) / Tserlukevich, Yuri (Thesis advisor) / Custodio, Claudia (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2015
Description
This paper examines the link between firm size and innovation. Given that innovation is highly reliant on human capital, the ability to attract, motivate, and retain high quality inventors is a key determinant of firm innovation. Firm size may affect these abilities, and small firms are known to account for a disproportionate share of aggregate innovation. I therefore investigate the role that sorting of inventors across firms plays in explaining this disparity. Talented inventors may find employment at a large firm less attractive due to the relative absence of growth options and a lower ability to link compensation to performance. Using inventor-level patent data, I construct employment histories for inventors at U.S. public firms. I find that the most productive inventors are disproportionately likely to move to small firms, while the least productive inventors disproportionately remain at large firms. These results cannot be explained fully by small firms' superior growth opportunities. In addition, productive innovators' turnover in small firms is sensitive to the level of option compensation. Taken together, this evidence is consistent with inventor sorting explaining part of the firm size innovation gap.
ContributorsChi, Yung-Ling (Author) / Lindsey, Laura A. (Thesis advisor) / Tserlukevich, Yuri (Committee member) / Stein, Luke C.D. (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2016