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This thesis takes the form of a market research report with the goal of analyzing the implications of the United Kingdom (UK) leaving the European Union (EU) (known as “Brexit”) on London’s office commercial real estate market. The ultimate goal of this report is to make a prediction, firmly grounded in quantitative and qualitative research conducted over the past several months, as to the direction of London’s commercial real estate market going forward (post-Brexit). Within the commercial real estate sector, this paper narrows its focus to the office segment of the London market.
Understanding the political landscape is crucial to formulating a reasonable prediction as to the future of the London market. Aside from research reports and articles, our main insights into the political direction of Brexit come from our recordings from meetings in March of 2017 with two high-ranking members of Parliament and one member of the House of Lords—all of whom are members of the Tory Party (the meetings being held under the condition of anonymity). The below analysis will be followed by a discussion of the economics of Brexit, primarily focusing on the economic risks and uncertainties which have emerged after the vote, and which currently exist today. Such risks include the UK losing its financial passporting rights, weakening GDP and currency value, the potential for a reduction in foreign direct investment (FDI), and the potential loss of the service sector in the city of London due to not being able to access the European Single Market.
The report will shift focus to analyzing three competing viewpoints of the direction of the London market based on recordings from interviews of stakeholders in the London real estate market. One being an executive of one of the largest REITs in the UK, another being the Global Head of Real Estate at a top asset management firm, and another being a director at a large property consulting firm. The report includes these differing “sub-theses” in order to try to make sense of the vast market uncertainties post-Brexit as well as to contrast their viewpoints with where the market is currently and with the report’s investment recommendation.
The remainder of the report will consist of the methods used for analyzing market trends including how the data was modeled in order to make the investment recommendation. The report will analyze real estate and market metrics pre-Brexit, immediately after the vote, post-Brexit, and will conclude with future projections encapsulating the investment recommendation.
Understanding the political landscape is crucial to formulating a reasonable prediction as to the future of the London market. Aside from research reports and articles, our main insights into the political direction of Brexit come from our recordings from meetings in March of 2017 with two high-ranking members of Parliament and one member of the House of Lords—all of whom are members of the Tory Party (the meetings being held under the condition of anonymity). The below analysis will be followed by a discussion of the economics of Brexit, primarily focusing on the economic risks and uncertainties which have emerged after the vote, and which currently exist today. Such risks include the UK losing its financial passporting rights, weakening GDP and currency value, the potential for a reduction in foreign direct investment (FDI), and the potential loss of the service sector in the city of London due to not being able to access the European Single Market.
The report will shift focus to analyzing three competing viewpoints of the direction of the London market based on recordings from interviews of stakeholders in the London real estate market. One being an executive of one of the largest REITs in the UK, another being the Global Head of Real Estate at a top asset management firm, and another being a director at a large property consulting firm. The report includes these differing “sub-theses” in order to try to make sense of the vast market uncertainties post-Brexit as well as to contrast their viewpoints with where the market is currently and with the report’s investment recommendation.
The remainder of the report will consist of the methods used for analyzing market trends including how the data was modeled in order to make the investment recommendation. The report will analyze real estate and market metrics pre-Brexit, immediately after the vote, post-Brexit, and will conclude with future projections encapsulating the investment recommendation.
ContributorsHorn, Jonathan (Co-author) / Sidi, Adam (Co-author) / Bonadurer, Werner (Thesis director) / McDaniel, Cara (Committee member) / Department of Finance (Contributor) / School of Politics and Global Studies (Contributor) / Economics Program in CLAS (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2017-12
Description
In order to discover if Company X's current system of local trucking is the most efficient and cost-effective way to move freight between sites in the Western U.S., we will compare the current system to varying alternatives to see if there are potential avenues for Company X to create or implement an improved cost saving freight movement system.
ContributorsPicone, David (Co-author) / Krueger, Brandon (Co-author) / Harrison, Sarah (Co-author) / Way, Noah (Co-author) / Simonson, Mark (Thesis director) / Hertzel, Michael (Committee member) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor) / Department of Supply Chain Management (Contributor) / Department of Finance (Contributor) / Economics Program in CLAS (Contributor) / School of Accountancy (Contributor) / W. P. Carey School of Business (Contributor) / Sandra Day O'Connor College of Law (Contributor)
Created2015-05
Description
Catastrophe events occur rather infrequently, but upon their occurrence, can lead to colossal losses for insurance companies. Due to their size and volatility, catastrophe losses are often treated separately from other insurance losses. In fact, many property and casualty insurance companies feature a department or team which focuses solely on modeling catastrophes. Setting reserves for catastrophe losses is difficult due to their unpredictable and often long-tailed nature. Determining loss development factors (LDFs) to estimate the ultimate loss amounts for catastrophe events is one method for setting reserves. In an attempt to aid Company XYZ set more accurate reserves, the research conducted focuses on estimating LDFs for catastrophes which have already occurred and have been settled. Furthermore, the research describes the process used to build a linear model in R to estimate LDFs for Company XYZ's closed catastrophe claims from 2001 \u2014 2016. This linear model was used to predict a catastrophe's LDFs based on the age in weeks of the catastrophe during the first year. Back testing was also performed, as was the comparison between the estimated ultimate losses and actual losses. Future research consideration was proposed.
ContributorsSwoverland, Robert Bo (Author) / Milovanovic, Jelena (Thesis director) / Zicarelli, John (Committee member) / School of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2018-05
Description
Financial Intelligence Pays Off blog is an easy to use blog for high school juniors and seniors and college students to access in order to receive a quick overview of essential financial topics. There are many sources and college courses for students to take to get a more in-depth understanding of topics such as saving, filing taxes, learning about credit but many times students do not know about these courses. However, it is often that courses are restricted to students who are business majors and online sources sometimes use to technical of terminology for young adults to follow along. The goal of this blog is for it to give students just a quick overview of what taxes are, how to manage and have a good credit score, how to keep a budget and other essential financial tasks. There are five topics covered in the blog as well as resources for students to access if they would like more information on a topic.
ContributorsFavata, Danielle (Co-author) / Perez-Vargas, Sofia (Co-author) / Sadusky, Brian (Thesis director) / Hoffman, David (Committee member) / WPC Graduate Programs (Contributor) / School of Accountancy (Contributor) / Department of Information Systems (Contributor) / Department of Finance (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2018-12
Description
Dodd-Frank should be celebrated for its success in stabilizing the financial sector following the last financial crisis. Some of its measures have not only contained financial disaster but contributed to economic growth. These elements of Dodd-Frank have been identified as "clear wins" and include the increase of financial institutions' capital requirements, the single-point-of-entry approach to regulating financial firms, and the creation of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB). The single-point-of-entry strategy (SPOE), specifically, has done much to bring an end to the age of "too big to fail" institutions. By identifying firms that could expect to be aided in case of financial crisis, the SPOE approach reduces uncertainty among financial institutions. Moreover, SPOE eliminates the significant source of risk by establishing clear protocols for resolving failed financial firms. Dodd-Frank has also taken measures to better protect consumers with the creation of the CFPB. Some of the CFPB's stabilizing actions have included the removal of deceptive financial products, setting guidelines for qualified mortgages, and other regulatory safeguards on money transfers. Despite the CFPB's many triumphs, however, there is room for improvement, especially in the agency's ability to reduce regulatory redundancies in supervision and collaboration with other financial sector controllers. The significant strengths of Dodd-Frank are evident in its elements that have secured financial stability. However, it is important to also consider any potential to stifle healthy economic growth. There are several areas for legislative amendments and reforms in order to improve the performance of Dodd-Frank given its sweeping regulatory impact. Several governing redundancies now exist with the creation of new regulatory authorities. Special efforts to increase the authority of the Financial Sector Oversight Council (FSOC) and preserving the impartiality of the Office of Financial Research (OFR) are specific examples of reforms still needed to elevate the effectiveness of Dodd-Frank. In addition, Dodd-Frank could do more to clarify the Volcker Rule in order to ease banks' burden to comply with excessive oversight. Going forward, policymakers must be willing to adjust parts of Dodd-Frank that encroach too far on the private sector's ability to foster efficiency or development. In addition, identifying and monitoring areas of the legislation deemed "too soon to tell" will provide insight on the accuracy and benefit of some Dodd-Frank measures.
ContributorsConrad, Cody Lee (Author) / Sadusky, Brian (Thesis director) / Hoffman, David (Committee member) / School of Politics and Global Studies (Contributor) / Department of Management and Entrepreneurship (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2018-05
Description
The purpose of this paper is to study the impact that poison pills have on the value of share prices after the cancellation of a transaction. While various studies have focused on the generic share price impact of poison pills, very few have focused on the impact of poison pills in cancelled transactions. Based on our research and analysis, in cancelled transactions, target firms that have poison pills prior to the transaction and target firms without poison pills generate returns above the announcement date premium and subsequent investment in the S&P 500 when held to the cancellation of the transaction and when held from cancellation to 6 months after the transaction. This analysis can contribute to the argument that holding shares of firms regardless of cancellation risk is preferable to taking profit at announcement date. Additionally, it can contribute to the study of undiscovered pricing impact of poison pills.
ContributorsChotalla, Gurkaran (Co-author) / Amjad, Hamza (Co-author) / Reddy, Samir (Co-author) / Stein, Luke (Thesis director) / Lindsey, Laura (Committee member) / School of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences (Contributor) / Department of Finance (Contributor) / Economics Program in CLAS (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2016-12
Description
Millennial involvement levels in the stock market are startlingly low. But what has caused this disconnect between America's younger generation and the financial sector? Stress from past financial crises, distrust of Wall Street, corporate greed, or a dislike of capitalism could surely all be viable culprits. Through our mutual experiences and research, however, we have found that most millennials aren't cynical anarchists avoiding the stock market in an attempt to fight against the system. Rather, they are individuals who have the desire to learn about investing but are clueless as to where/how to start. We both began investing in the stock market early in our college careers by opening online brokerage accounts and developing investment portfolios based on knowledge we learned within our Finance degrees and through independent research. Word of our involvement in the stock market began to spread in our social circles and people would consistently approach either of us and ask a variety of questions regarding investing. Questions such as: Can you sit down and help me open up an account and pick some stocks? What type of things do you invest in? How do I get started? How much money have you made? (always a favorite). Pre-med students, engineers, business, science, and technology majors alike all showed interest in the stock market. The more and more we talked to people, the more we realized that the problem was not a lack of desire or a lack of intellect. The problem was a lack of logically presented information, and barriers to entry that were far too high. We want to fix that. Investnet will be an online educational platform that will teach anyone the basics of investing, in plain, easy to understand terms. Whether the individual has absolutely zero knowledge of finances, or has some familiarity with investing, Investnet will provide them with the knowledge and confidence necessary to start investing in the stock market (or choose not to, but at least they'll know how).
ContributorsMcKenzie, Connor (Co-author) / Shatila, Jordan (Co-author) / Budolfson, Arthur (Thesis director) / Hoffman, David (Committee member) / School of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences (Contributor) / Department of Finance (Contributor) / W. P. Carey School of Business (Contributor) / Economics Program in CLAS (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2016-05
Description
The current state of financial inequality in America is showing multiple economic and social problems that harm the American dream and legacy. It is found that increasing inequality causes slower GDP growth, underinvestment in human capital, and disproportionate shifting of political power to the rich. Researches show that Average Americans do not realize how severe inequality has gotten over the past few decades, but one thing is clear: What they thought as ideal distribution of wealth is nowhere close to the reality. In this thesis, I examine the current state of inequality and how it has changed since the 1980s. Then, I present reasons why inequality has been on an increasing trend and identify what economic policies lead to rising inequality. With analysis of Reaganomics (trickle-down economics), I make an argument that reducing taxes on the rich might provide a short-term boost in the national economy, but such policy soon encounters side effects and is unsustainable. Fighting inequality is an imperative step to boost the American middle class and maintain sustainable and stable economic growth. In order to relieve inequality down closer to what Americans picked as the appropriate level, I present two recommendations that can be effective in fighting inequality. One is to reform the tax policies to make it more progressive especially towards the top 5% and shift the tax burden from the bottom to the top, while implementing stricter regulations regarding tax evasion. Next is to provide disadvantaged students with better access to higher education by subsidizing public universities more and lowering FAFSA rate. Realizing one's earning potential starts with education, and higher education today is more important than any other time in the past. Once these solutions prove effective and inequality is relieved, America will be able to regain her reputation as land of opportunity and enjoy faster economic growth.
ContributorsOh, Jae Yoon (Author) / Hoffman, David (Thesis director) / Sadusky, Brian (Committee member) / Yim, Roy (Committee member) / Department of Finance (Contributor) / School of Geographical Sciences and Urban Planning (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2015-12
Description
This thesis will be exploring the situation of one of the most vulnerable groups during the COVID-19 pandemic, low-income renters. As businesses and whole states were shutdown, jobs and wages were lost and the over 100 million renters in the United States, many of whom spend a significant chunk of their income on their rent, were forced into a precarious situation. <br/><br/>The Federal Rent Moratorium that is currently in effect bars any evictions for missed rent payments, but these are expenses that if left unpaid, are just continuously accruing. These large sums of rent payments are currently scheduled to be dropped on struggling individuals at the end of the recently extended date of June 30th, 2021. As these renters are unable to pay for their housing, landlords lose the revenue streams from their investment properties, and are in turn unable to cover the debt service on the financing they utilized to acquire the property. In turn, financial institutions can then face widespread defaults on these loans.<br/><br/>The rental property market is massive, as roughly 34% of the American population consist of renters. If left unaddressed, this situation has the potential to cause cataclysmal consequences on the economy, including mass homelessness and foreclosures of rental properties and complexes. Everyone, from the tenants to the bankers and beyond, are stakeholders in this dire situation and this paper will seek to explore the issues, desires, and potential solutions applicable to all parties involved. Beginning with the pre-pandemic outlook of the rental housing market, then examining the impact of the coronavirus and the resulting federal actions, to finally explore solutions that may prevent or mitigate this potential disaster.
ContributorsMorris, Michael H (Author) / Sadusky, Brian (Thesis director) / Licon, Wendell (Committee member) / Historical, Philosophical & Religious Studies (Contributor) / Historical, Philosophical & Religious Studies, Sch (Contributor) / Department of Finance (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2021-05
Description
Music streaming services have affected the music industry from both a financial and legal standpoint. Their current business model affects stakeholders such as artists, users, and investors. These services have been scrutinized recently for their imperfect royalty distribution model. Covid-19 has made these discussions even more relevant as touring income has come to a halt for musicians and the live entertainment industry. <br/>Under the current per-stream model, it is becoming exceedingly hard for artists to make a living off of streams. This forces artists to tour heavily as well as cut corners to create what is essentially “disposable art”. Rapidly releasing multiple projects a year has become the norm for many modern artists. This paper will examine the licensing framework, royalty payout issues, and propose a solution.
ContributorsKoudssi, Zakaria Corley (Author) / Sadusky, Brian (Thesis director) / Koretz, Lora (Committee member) / Dean, W.P. Carey School of Business (Contributor) / Department of Finance (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2021-05