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- All Subjects: Finance
- All Subjects: Statistics
- Creators: Economics Program in CLAS
- Creators: Hoffman, David
Description
This thesis takes the form of a market research report with the goal of analyzing the implications of the United Kingdom (UK) leaving the European Union (EU) (known as “Brexit”) on London’s office commercial real estate market. The ultimate goal of this report is to make a prediction, firmly grounded in quantitative and qualitative research conducted over the past several months, as to the direction of London’s commercial real estate market going forward (post-Brexit). Within the commercial real estate sector, this paper narrows its focus to the office segment of the London market.
Understanding the political landscape is crucial to formulating a reasonable prediction as to the future of the London market. Aside from research reports and articles, our main insights into the political direction of Brexit come from our recordings from meetings in March of 2017 with two high-ranking members of Parliament and one member of the House of Lords—all of whom are members of the Tory Party (the meetings being held under the condition of anonymity). The below analysis will be followed by a discussion of the economics of Brexit, primarily focusing on the economic risks and uncertainties which have emerged after the vote, and which currently exist today. Such risks include the UK losing its financial passporting rights, weakening GDP and currency value, the potential for a reduction in foreign direct investment (FDI), and the potential loss of the service sector in the city of London due to not being able to access the European Single Market.
The report will shift focus to analyzing three competing viewpoints of the direction of the London market based on recordings from interviews of stakeholders in the London real estate market. One being an executive of one of the largest REITs in the UK, another being the Global Head of Real Estate at a top asset management firm, and another being a director at a large property consulting firm. The report includes these differing “sub-theses” in order to try to make sense of the vast market uncertainties post-Brexit as well as to contrast their viewpoints with where the market is currently and with the report’s investment recommendation.
The remainder of the report will consist of the methods used for analyzing market trends including how the data was modeled in order to make the investment recommendation. The report will analyze real estate and market metrics pre-Brexit, immediately after the vote, post-Brexit, and will conclude with future projections encapsulating the investment recommendation.
Understanding the political landscape is crucial to formulating a reasonable prediction as to the future of the London market. Aside from research reports and articles, our main insights into the political direction of Brexit come from our recordings from meetings in March of 2017 with two high-ranking members of Parliament and one member of the House of Lords—all of whom are members of the Tory Party (the meetings being held under the condition of anonymity). The below analysis will be followed by a discussion of the economics of Brexit, primarily focusing on the economic risks and uncertainties which have emerged after the vote, and which currently exist today. Such risks include the UK losing its financial passporting rights, weakening GDP and currency value, the potential for a reduction in foreign direct investment (FDI), and the potential loss of the service sector in the city of London due to not being able to access the European Single Market.
The report will shift focus to analyzing three competing viewpoints of the direction of the London market based on recordings from interviews of stakeholders in the London real estate market. One being an executive of one of the largest REITs in the UK, another being the Global Head of Real Estate at a top asset management firm, and another being a director at a large property consulting firm. The report includes these differing “sub-theses” in order to try to make sense of the vast market uncertainties post-Brexit as well as to contrast their viewpoints with where the market is currently and with the report’s investment recommendation.
The remainder of the report will consist of the methods used for analyzing market trends including how the data was modeled in order to make the investment recommendation. The report will analyze real estate and market metrics pre-Brexit, immediately after the vote, post-Brexit, and will conclude with future projections encapsulating the investment recommendation.
ContributorsHorn, Jonathan (Co-author) / Sidi, Adam (Co-author) / Bonadurer, Werner (Thesis director) / McDaniel, Cara (Committee member) / Department of Finance (Contributor) / School of Politics and Global Studies (Contributor) / Economics Program in CLAS (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2017-12
Description
The NFL is one of largest and most influential industries in the world. In America there are few companies that have a stronger hold on the American culture and create such a phenomena from year to year. In this project aimed to develop a strategy that helps an NFL team be as successful as possible by defining which positions are most important to a team's success. Data from fifteen years of NFL games was collected and information on every player in the league was analyzed. First there needed to be a benchmark which describes a team as being average and then every player in the NFL must be compared to that average. Based on properties of linear regression using ordinary least squares this project aims to define such a model that shows each position's importance. Finally, once such a model had been established then the focus turned to the NFL draft in which the goal was to find a strategy of where each position needs to be drafted so that it is most likely to give the best payoff based on the results of the regression in part one.
ContributorsBalzer, Kevin Ryan (Author) / Goegan, Brian (Thesis director) / Dassanayake, Maduranga (Committee member) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor) / Economics Program in CLAS (Contributor) / School of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences (Contributor)
Created2015-05
Description
The concentration factor edge detection method was developed to compute the locations and values of jump discontinuities in a piecewise-analytic function from its first few Fourier series coecients. The method approximates the singular support of a piecewise smooth function using an altered Fourier conjugate partial sum. The accuracy and characteristic features of the resulting jump function approximation depends on these lters, known as concentration factors. Recent research showed that that these concentration factors could be designed using aexible iterative framework, improving upon the overall accuracy and robustness of the method, especially in the case where some Fourier data are untrustworthy or altogether missing. Hypothesis testing methods were used to determine how well the original concentration factor method could locate edges using noisy Fourier data. This thesis combines the iterative design aspect of concentration factor design and hypothesis testing by presenting a new algorithm that incorporates multiple concentration factors into one statistical test, which proves more ective at determining jump discontinuities than the previous HT methods. This thesis also examines how the quantity and location of Fourier data act the accuracy of HT methods. Numerical examples are provided.
ContributorsLubold, Shane Michael (Author) / Gelb, Anne (Thesis director) / Cochran, Doug (Committee member) / Viswanathan, Aditya (Committee member) / Economics Program in CLAS (Contributor) / School of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2016-05
Description
In order to discover if Company X's current system of local trucking is the most efficient and cost-effective way to move freight between sites in the Western U.S., we will compare the current system to varying alternatives to see if there are potential avenues for Company X to create or implement an improved cost saving freight movement system.
ContributorsPicone, David (Co-author) / Krueger, Brandon (Co-author) / Harrison, Sarah (Co-author) / Way, Noah (Co-author) / Simonson, Mark (Thesis director) / Hertzel, Michael (Committee member) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor) / Department of Supply Chain Management (Contributor) / Department of Finance (Contributor) / Economics Program in CLAS (Contributor) / School of Accountancy (Contributor) / W. P. Carey School of Business (Contributor) / Sandra Day O'Connor College of Law (Contributor)
Created2015-05
Description
Financial Intelligence Pays Off blog is an easy to use blog for high school juniors and seniors and college students to access in order to receive a quick overview of essential financial topics. There are many sources and college courses for students to take to get a more in-depth understanding of topics such as saving, filing taxes, learning about credit but many times students do not know about these courses. However, it is often that courses are restricted to students who are business majors and online sources sometimes use to technical of terminology for young adults to follow along. The goal of this blog is for it to give students just a quick overview of what taxes are, how to manage and have a good credit score, how to keep a budget and other essential financial tasks. There are five topics covered in the blog as well as resources for students to access if they would like more information on a topic.
ContributorsFavata, Danielle (Co-author) / Perez-Vargas, Sofia (Co-author) / Sadusky, Brian (Thesis director) / Hoffman, David (Committee member) / WPC Graduate Programs (Contributor) / School of Accountancy (Contributor) / Department of Information Systems (Contributor) / Department of Finance (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2018-12
Description
Dodd-Frank should be celebrated for its success in stabilizing the financial sector following the last financial crisis. Some of its measures have not only contained financial disaster but contributed to economic growth. These elements of Dodd-Frank have been identified as "clear wins" and include the increase of financial institutions' capital requirements, the single-point-of-entry approach to regulating financial firms, and the creation of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB). The single-point-of-entry strategy (SPOE), specifically, has done much to bring an end to the age of "too big to fail" institutions. By identifying firms that could expect to be aided in case of financial crisis, the SPOE approach reduces uncertainty among financial institutions. Moreover, SPOE eliminates the significant source of risk by establishing clear protocols for resolving failed financial firms. Dodd-Frank has also taken measures to better protect consumers with the creation of the CFPB. Some of the CFPB's stabilizing actions have included the removal of deceptive financial products, setting guidelines for qualified mortgages, and other regulatory safeguards on money transfers. Despite the CFPB's many triumphs, however, there is room for improvement, especially in the agency's ability to reduce regulatory redundancies in supervision and collaboration with other financial sector controllers. The significant strengths of Dodd-Frank are evident in its elements that have secured financial stability. However, it is important to also consider any potential to stifle healthy economic growth. There are several areas for legislative amendments and reforms in order to improve the performance of Dodd-Frank given its sweeping regulatory impact. Several governing redundancies now exist with the creation of new regulatory authorities. Special efforts to increase the authority of the Financial Sector Oversight Council (FSOC) and preserving the impartiality of the Office of Financial Research (OFR) are specific examples of reforms still needed to elevate the effectiveness of Dodd-Frank. In addition, Dodd-Frank could do more to clarify the Volcker Rule in order to ease banks' burden to comply with excessive oversight. Going forward, policymakers must be willing to adjust parts of Dodd-Frank that encroach too far on the private sector's ability to foster efficiency or development. In addition, identifying and monitoring areas of the legislation deemed "too soon to tell" will provide insight on the accuracy and benefit of some Dodd-Frank measures.
ContributorsConrad, Cody Lee (Author) / Sadusky, Brian (Thesis director) / Hoffman, David (Committee member) / School of Politics and Global Studies (Contributor) / Department of Management and Entrepreneurship (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2018-05
Description
This paper examines the Syrian Civil War using seven different civil war settlement theories in order to assess the likelihood of a negotiated settlement ending the conflict. The costs of war, balance of power, domestic political institutions, ethnic identity, divisibility of stakes, veto player, and credible commitment theories were used in a multi-perspective analysis of the Syrian Civil War and the possibility of a peace settlement. It was found that all of the theories except for costs of war and balance of power predict that a negotiated settlement is unlikely to resolve the conflict. Although the Syrian government and the Syrian National Coalition are currently engaged in diplomatic negotiations through the Geneva II conference, both sides are unwilling to compromise on the underlying grievances driving the conflict. This paper ultimately highlights some of the problems inhibiting a negotiated settlement in the Syrian Civil War. These obstacles include: rival ethno-religious identities of combatants, lack of democratic institutions in Syria, indivisibility of stakes in which combatants are fighting for, number of veto player combatant groups active in Syria, and the lack of a credible third party to monitor and enforce a peace settlement.
ContributorsRidout, Scott Jeffries (Author) / Grossman, Gary (Thesis director) / Siroky, David (Committee member) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor) / Economics Program in CLAS (Contributor) / School of Politics and Global Studies (Contributor)
Created2014-05
Description
The goal of this thesis is to motivate college students to be financially aware and drive them toward attainable financial goals and freedom through budgeting. By providing a foundation of financial knowledge, they can begin to make intelligent decisions about their purchases. After they learn about their current spending habits, students can soundly determine what they have monetarily and then how to allocate that money appropriately. The paper outlines different categories these students should focus on fiscally, like rent and housing as the largest expenses and entertainment expenses as a common pitfall in a college student's budget. Constant financial awareness is reiterated throughout, indicating this is a day-to-day skill to develop. The thesis finally ties up with discussing financing options for college and life in general, with student loans, credit cards, and savings.
ContributorsSchachte, Jessica Linn (Author) / Budolfson, Arthur (Thesis director) / Hoffman, David (Committee member) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor) / Department of Finance (Contributor)
Created2013-12
Description
We seek a comprehensive measurement for the economic prosperity of persons with disabilities. We survey the current literature and identify the major economic indicators used to describe the socioeconomic standing of persons with disabilities. We then develop a methodology for constructing a statistically valid composite index of these indicators, and build this index using data from the 2014 American Community Survey. Finally, we provide context for further use and development of the index and describe an example application of the index in practice.
ContributorsTheisen, Ryan (Co-author) / Helms, Tyler (Co-author) / Lewis, Paul (Thesis director) / Reiser, Mark (Committee member) / Economics Program in CLAS (Contributor) / School of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences (Contributor) / School of Politics and Global Studies (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2017-05
Description
The purpose of this paper is to study the impact that poison pills have on the value of share prices after the cancellation of a transaction. While various studies have focused on the generic share price impact of poison pills, very few have focused on the impact of poison pills in cancelled transactions. Based on our research and analysis, in cancelled transactions, target firms that have poison pills prior to the transaction and target firms without poison pills generate returns above the announcement date premium and subsequent investment in the S&P 500 when held to the cancellation of the transaction and when held from cancellation to 6 months after the transaction. This analysis can contribute to the argument that holding shares of firms regardless of cancellation risk is preferable to taking profit at announcement date. Additionally, it can contribute to the study of undiscovered pricing impact of poison pills.
ContributorsChotalla, Gurkaran (Co-author) / Amjad, Hamza (Co-author) / Reddy, Samir (Co-author) / Stein, Luke (Thesis director) / Lindsey, Laura (Committee member) / School of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences (Contributor) / Department of Finance (Contributor) / Economics Program in CLAS (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2016-12