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Analyzing the Spread of Chikungunya in the Caribbean 2013-2015

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This work examines one dimension of the effect that complex human transport systems have on the spread of Chikungunya Virus (CHIKV) in the Caribbean from 2013 to 2015. CHIKV is transmitted by mosquitos and its novel spread through the Caribbean

This work examines one dimension of the effect that complex human transport systems have on the spread of Chikungunya Virus (CHIKV) in the Caribbean from 2013 to 2015. CHIKV is transmitted by mosquitos and its novel spread through the Caribbean islands provided a chance to examine disease transmission through complex human transportation systems. Previous work by Cauchemez et al. had shown a simple distance-based model successfully predict CHIKV spread in the Caribbean using Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) statistical methods. A MCMC simulation is used to evaluate different transportation methods (air travel, cruise ships, and local maritime traffic) for the primary transmission patterns through linear regression. Other metrics including population density to account for island size variation and dengue fever incidence rates as a proxy for vector control and health spending were included. Air travel and cruise travel were gathered from monthly passenger arrivals by island. Local maritime traffic is approximated with a gravity model proxy incorporating GDP-per-capita and distance and historic dengue rates were used for determine existing vector control measures for the islands. The Caribbean represents the largest cruise passenger market in the world, cruise ship arrivals were expected to show the strongest signal; however, the gravity model representing local traffic was the best predictor of infection routes. The early infected islands (<30 days) showed a heavy trend towards an alternate primary transmission but our consensus model able to predict the time until initial infection reporting with 94.5% accuracy for islands 30 days post initial reporting. This result can assist public health entities in enacting measures to mitigate future epidemics and provide a modelling basis for determining transmission modes in future CHIKV outbreaks.

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2015-12

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STRUCTURAL HEALTH MONITORING OF FIBER REINFORCED COMPOSITE STRUCTURES UNDER HIGH VELOCITY IMPACT LOADS

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This thesis encompasses research performed in the focus area of structural health monitoring. More specifically, this research focuses on high velocity impact testing of carbon fiber reinforced structures, especially plates, and evaluating the damage post-impact. To this end, various non-destructive

This thesis encompasses research performed in the focus area of structural health monitoring. More specifically, this research focuses on high velocity impact testing of carbon fiber reinforced structures, especially plates, and evaluating the damage post-impact. To this end, various non-destructive evaluation techniques such as ultrasonic C-scan testing and flash thermography were utilized for post-impact analysis. MATLAB algorithms were written and refined for the localization and quantification of damage in plates using data from sensors such as piezoelectric and fiber Bragg gratings sensors. Throughout the thesis, the general plate theory and laminate plate theory, the operations and optimization of the gas gun, and the theory used for the damage localization algorithms will be discussed. Additional quantifiable results are to come in future semesters of experimentation, but this thesis outlines the framework upon which all the research will continue to advance.

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2015-05