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Description
Modern, advanced statistical tools from data mining and machine learning have become commonplace in molecular biology in large part because of the “big data” demands of various kinds of “-omics” (e.g., genomics, transcriptomics, metabolomics, etc.). However, in other fields of biology where empirical data sets are conventionally smaller, more traditional statistical methods of inference are still very effective and widely used. Nevertheless, with the decrease in cost of high-performance computing, these fields are starting to employ simulation models to generate insights into questions that have been elusive in the laboratory and field. Although these computational models allow for exquisite control over large numbers of parameters, they also generate data at a qualitatively different scale than most experts in these fields are accustomed to. Thus, more sophisticated methods from big-data statistics have an opportunity to better facilitate the often-forgotten area of bioinformatics that might be called “in-silicomics”.
As a case study, this thesis develops methods for the analysis of large amounts of data generated from a simulated ecosystem designed to understand how mammalian biomechanics interact with environmental complexity to modulate the outcomes of predator–prey interactions. These simulations investigate how other biomechanical parameters relating to the agility of animals in predator–prey pairs are better predictors of pursuit outcomes. Traditional modelling techniques such as forward, backward, and stepwise variable selection are initially used to study these data, but the number of parameters and potentially relevant interaction effects render these methods impractical. Consequently, new modelling techniques such as LASSO regularization are used and compared to the traditional techniques in terms of accuracy and computational complexity. Finally, the splitting rules and instances in the leaves of classification trees provide the basis for future simulation with an economical number of additional runs. In general, this thesis shows the increased utility of these sophisticated statistical techniques with simulated ecological data compared to the approaches traditionally used in these fields. These techniques combined with methods from industrial Design of Experiments will help ecologists extract novel insights from simulations that combine habitat complexity, population structure, and biomechanics.
As a case study, this thesis develops methods for the analysis of large amounts of data generated from a simulated ecosystem designed to understand how mammalian biomechanics interact with environmental complexity to modulate the outcomes of predator–prey interactions. These simulations investigate how other biomechanical parameters relating to the agility of animals in predator–prey pairs are better predictors of pursuit outcomes. Traditional modelling techniques such as forward, backward, and stepwise variable selection are initially used to study these data, but the number of parameters and potentially relevant interaction effects render these methods impractical. Consequently, new modelling techniques such as LASSO regularization are used and compared to the traditional techniques in terms of accuracy and computational complexity. Finally, the splitting rules and instances in the leaves of classification trees provide the basis for future simulation with an economical number of additional runs. In general, this thesis shows the increased utility of these sophisticated statistical techniques with simulated ecological data compared to the approaches traditionally used in these fields. These techniques combined with methods from industrial Design of Experiments will help ecologists extract novel insights from simulations that combine habitat complexity, population structure, and biomechanics.
ContributorsSeto, Christian (Author) / Pavlic, Theodore (Thesis advisor) / Li, Jing (Committee member) / Yan, Hao (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2018
Description
Visualizations are an integral component for communicating and evaluating modern networks. As data becomes more complex, info-graphics require a balance between visual noise and effective storytelling that is often restricted by layouts unsuitable for scalability. The challenge then rests upon researchers to effectively structure their information in a way that allows for flexible, transparent illustration. We propose network graphing as an operative alternative for demonstrating community behavior over traditional charts which are unable to look past numeric data. In this paper, we explore methods for manipulating, processing, cleaning, and aggregating data in Python; a programming language tailored for handling structured data, which can then be formatted for analysis and modeling of social network tendencies in Gephi. We implement this data by applying an algorithm known as the Fruchterman-Reingold force-directed layout to datasets of Arizona State University’s research and collaboration network. The result is a visualization that analyzes the university’s infrastructure by providing insight about community behaviors between colleges. Furthermore, we highlight how the flexibility of this visualization provides a foundation for specific use cases by demonstrating centrality measures to find important liaisons that connect distant communities.
ContributorsMcMichael, Jacob Andrew (Author) / LiKamWa, Robert (Thesis director) / Anderson, Derrick (Committee member) / Goshert, Maxwell (Committee member) / Arts, Media and Engineering Sch T (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2020-05
Description
37,461 automobile accident fatalities occured in the United States in 2016 ("Quick Facts 2016", 2017). Improving the safety of roads has traditionally been approached by governmental agencies including the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration and State Departments of Transporation. In past literature, automobile crash data is analyzed using time-series prediction technicques to identify road segments and/or intersections likely to experience future crashes (Lord & Mannering, 2010). After dangerous zones have been identified road modifications can be implemented improving public safety. This project introduces a historical safety metric for evaluating the relative danger of roads in a road network. The historical safety metric can be used to update routing choices of individual drivers improving public safety by avoiding historically more dangerous routes. The metric is constructed using crash frequency, severity, location and traffic information. An analysis of publically-available crash and traffic data in Allgeheny County, Pennsylvania is used to generate the historical safety metric for a specific road network. Methods for evaluating routes based on the presented historical safety metric are included using the Mann Whitney U Test to evaluate the significance of routing decisions. The evaluation method presented requires routes have at least 20 crashes to be compared with significance testing. The safety of the road network is visualized using a heatmap to present distribution of the metric throughout Allgeheny County.
ContributorsGupta, Ariel Meron (Author) / Bansal, Ajay (Thesis director) / Sodemann, Angela (Committee member) / Engineering Programs (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2017-12
Description
In the words of W. Edwards Deming, "the central problem in management and in leadership is failure to understand the information in variation." While many quality management programs propose the institution of technical training in advanced statistical methods, this paper proposes that by understanding the fundamental information behind statistical theory, and by minimizing bias and variance while fully utilizing the available information about the system at hand, one can make valuable, accurate predictions about the future. Combining this knowledge with the work of quality gurus W. E. Deming, Eliyahu Goldratt, and Dean Kashiwagi, a framework for making valuable predictions for continuous improvement is made. After this information is synthesized, it is concluded that the best way to make accurate, informative predictions about the future is to "balance the present and future," seeing the future through the lens of the present and thus minimizing bias, variance, and risk.
ContributorsSynodis, Nicholas Dahn (Author) / Kashiwagi, Dean (Thesis director, Committee member) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor) / School of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences (Contributor)
Created2015-05
Description
Understanding the necessary skills required to work in an industry is a difficult task with many potential uses. By being able to predict the industry of a person based on their skills, professional social networks could make searching better with automated tagging, advertisers can target more carefully, and students can better find a career path that fits their skillset. The aim in this project is to apply deep learning to the world of professional networking. Deep Learning is a type of machine learning that has recently been making breakthroughs in the analysis of complex datasets that previously were not of much use. Initially the goal was to apply deep learning to the skills-to-company relationship, but a lack of quality data required a change to the skills-to-industry relationship. To accomplish the new goal, a database of LinkedIn profiles that are part of various industries was gathered and processed. From this dataset a model was created to take a list of skills and output an industry that people with those skills work in. Such a model has value in the insights that it forms allowing candidates to: determine what industry fits a skillset, identify key skills for industries, and locate which industries possible candidates may best fit in. Various models were trained and tested on a skill to industry dataset. The model was able to learn similarities between industries, and predict the most likely industries for each profiles skillset.
ContributorsAndrew, Benjamin (Co-author) / Thiel, Alex (Co-author) / Sodemann, Angela (Thesis director) / Sebold, Brent (Committee member) / Engineering Programs (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2017-12
Description
This reports investigates the general day to day problems faced by small businesses, particularly small vendors, in areas of marketing and general management. Due to lack of man power, internet availability and properly documented data, small business cannot optimize their business. The aim of the research is to address and find a solution to these problems faced, in the form of a tool which utilizes data science. The tool will have features which will aid the vendor to mine their data which they record themselves and find useful information which will benefit their businesses. Since there is lack of properly documented data, One Class Classification using Support Vector Machine (SVM) is used to build a classifying model that can return positive values for audience that is likely to respond to a marketing strategy. Market basket analysis is used to choose products from the inventory in a way that patterns are found amongst them and therefore there is a higher chance of a marketing strategy to attract audience. Also, higher selling products can be used to the vendors' advantage and lesser selling products can be paired with them to have an overall profit to the business. The tool, as envisioned, meets all the requirements that it was set out to have and can be used as a stand alone application to bring the power of data mining into the hands of a small vendor.
ContributorsSharma, Aveesha (Author) / Ghazarian, Arbi (Thesis advisor) / Gaffar, Ashraf (Committee member) / Bansal, Srividya (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2016
Description
The dawn of Internet of Things (IoT) has opened the opportunity for mainstream adoption of machine learning analytics. However, most research in machine learning has focused on discovery of new algorithms or fine-tuning the performance of existing algorithms. Little exists on the process of taking an algorithm from the lab-environment into the real-world, culminating in sustained value. Real-world applications are typically characterized by dynamic non-stationary systems with requirements around feasibility, stability and maintainability. Not much has been done to establish standards around the unique analytics demands of real-world scenarios.
This research explores the problem of the why so few of the published algorithms enter production and furthermore, fewer end up generating sustained value. The dissertation proposes a ‘Design for Deployment’ (DFD) framework to successfully build machine learning analytics so they can be deployed to generate sustained value. The framework emphasizes and elaborates the often neglected but immensely important latter steps of an analytics process: ‘Evaluation’ and ‘Deployment’. A representative evaluation framework is proposed that incorporates the temporal-shifts and dynamism of real-world scenarios. Additionally, the recommended infrastructure allows analytics projects to pivot rapidly when a particular venture does not materialize. Deployment needs and apprehensions of the industry are identified and gaps addressed through a 4-step process for sustainable deployment. Lastly, the need for analytics as a functional area (like finance and IT) is identified to maximize the return on machine-learning deployment.
The framework and process is demonstrated in semiconductor manufacturing – it is highly complex process involving hundreds of optical, electrical, chemical, mechanical, thermal, electrochemical and software processes which makes it a highly dynamic non-stationary system. Due to the 24/7 uptime requirements in manufacturing, high-reliability and fail-safe are a must. Moreover, the ever growing volumes mean that the system must be highly scalable. Lastly, due to the high cost of change, sustained value proposition is a must for any proposed changes. Hence the context is ideal to explore the issues involved. The enterprise use-cases are used to demonstrate the robustness of the framework in addressing challenges encountered in the end-to-end process of productizing machine learning analytics in dynamic read-world scenarios.
This research explores the problem of the why so few of the published algorithms enter production and furthermore, fewer end up generating sustained value. The dissertation proposes a ‘Design for Deployment’ (DFD) framework to successfully build machine learning analytics so they can be deployed to generate sustained value. The framework emphasizes and elaborates the often neglected but immensely important latter steps of an analytics process: ‘Evaluation’ and ‘Deployment’. A representative evaluation framework is proposed that incorporates the temporal-shifts and dynamism of real-world scenarios. Additionally, the recommended infrastructure allows analytics projects to pivot rapidly when a particular venture does not materialize. Deployment needs and apprehensions of the industry are identified and gaps addressed through a 4-step process for sustainable deployment. Lastly, the need for analytics as a functional area (like finance and IT) is identified to maximize the return on machine-learning deployment.
The framework and process is demonstrated in semiconductor manufacturing – it is highly complex process involving hundreds of optical, electrical, chemical, mechanical, thermal, electrochemical and software processes which makes it a highly dynamic non-stationary system. Due to the 24/7 uptime requirements in manufacturing, high-reliability and fail-safe are a must. Moreover, the ever growing volumes mean that the system must be highly scalable. Lastly, due to the high cost of change, sustained value proposition is a must for any proposed changes. Hence the context is ideal to explore the issues involved. The enterprise use-cases are used to demonstrate the robustness of the framework in addressing challenges encountered in the end-to-end process of productizing machine learning analytics in dynamic read-world scenarios.
ContributorsShahapurkar, Som (Author) / Liu, Huan (Thesis advisor) / Davulcu, Hasan (Committee member) / Ameresh, Ashish (Committee member) / He, Jingrui (Committee member) / Tuv, Eugene (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2016
Description
A major challenge in health-related policy and program evaluation research is attributing underlying causal relationships where complicated processes may exist in natural or quasi-experimental settings. Spatial interaction and heterogeneity between units at individual or group levels can violate both components of the Stable-Unit-Treatment-Value-Assumption (SUTVA) that are core to the counterfactual framework, making treatment effects difficult to assess. New approaches are needed in health studies to develop spatially dynamic causal modeling methods to both derive insights from data that are sensitive to spatial differences and dependencies, and also be able to rely on a more robust, dynamic technical infrastructure needed for decision-making. To address this gap with a focus on causal applications theoretically, methodologically and technologically, I (1) develop a theoretical spatial framework (within single-level panel econometric methodology) that extends existing theories and methods of causal inference, which tend to ignore spatial dynamics; (2) demonstrate how this spatial framework can be applied in empirical research; and (3) implement a new spatial infrastructure framework that integrates and manages the required data for health systems evaluation.
The new spatially explicit counterfactual framework considers how spatial effects impact treatment choice, treatment variation, and treatment effects. To illustrate this new methodological framework, I first replicate a classic quasi-experimental study that evaluates the effect of drinking age policy on mortality in the United States from 1970 to 1984, and further extend it with a spatial perspective. In another example, I evaluate food access dynamics in Chicago from 2007 to 2014 by implementing advanced spatial analytics that better account for the complex patterns of food access, and quasi-experimental research design to distill the impact of the Great Recession on the foodscape. Inference interpretation is sensitive to both research design framing and underlying processes that drive geographically distributed relationships. Finally, I advance a new Spatial Data Science Infrastructure to integrate and manage data in dynamic, open environments for public health systems research and decision- making. I demonstrate an infrastructure prototype in a final case study, developed in collaboration with health department officials and community organizations.
The new spatially explicit counterfactual framework considers how spatial effects impact treatment choice, treatment variation, and treatment effects. To illustrate this new methodological framework, I first replicate a classic quasi-experimental study that evaluates the effect of drinking age policy on mortality in the United States from 1970 to 1984, and further extend it with a spatial perspective. In another example, I evaluate food access dynamics in Chicago from 2007 to 2014 by implementing advanced spatial analytics that better account for the complex patterns of food access, and quasi-experimental research design to distill the impact of the Great Recession on the foodscape. Inference interpretation is sensitive to both research design framing and underlying processes that drive geographically distributed relationships. Finally, I advance a new Spatial Data Science Infrastructure to integrate and manage data in dynamic, open environments for public health systems research and decision- making. I demonstrate an infrastructure prototype in a final case study, developed in collaboration with health department officials and community organizations.
ContributorsKolak, Marynia Aniela (Author) / Anselin, Luc (Thesis advisor) / Rey, Sergio (Committee member) / Koschinsky, Julia (Committee member) / Maciejewski, Ross (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2017
Description
In the last two decades, fantasy sports have grown massively in popularity. Fantasy football in particular is the most popular fantasy sport in the United States. People spend hours upon hours every year building, researching, and perfecting their teams to compete with others for money or bragging rights. One problem, however, is that National Football League (NFL) players are human and will not perform the same as they did last week or last season. Because of this, there is a need to create a machine learning model to help predict when players will have a tough game or when they can perform above average. This report discusses the history and science of fantasy football, gathering large amounts of player data, manipulating the information to create more insightful data points, creating a machine learning model, and how to use this tool in a real-world situation. The initial model created significantly accurate predictions for quarterbacks and running backs but not receivers and tight ends. Improvements significantly increased the accuracy by reducing the mean average error to below one for all positions, resulting in a successful model for all four positions.
ContributorsCase, Spencer (Author) / Johnson, Jarod (Co-author) / Kostelich, Eric (Thesis director) / Zhuang, Houlong (Committee member) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor) / Department of Psychology (Contributor) / Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering Program (Contributor)
Created2023-05
Description
Sports analytics refers to the implementation of data science and analytics techniques within the sports industry. Several sports analysts and team managers have utilized analytical tools to boost overall team and player performance, often through the analysis of historical data. One of the most common techniques employed in sports analytics is that of data mining–the extensive practice of analyzing data in order to extract and deliver insights and findings. Data mining projects are frequently guided with the six-step Cross Industry Standard Process for Data Mining (CRISP-DM) framework. One such sport that has extensively used data science and analytics, and data mining specifically, is that of Formula One (F1). Given the sports’ reliance on technology, race engineers working for F1 constructors often develop statistical models analyzing historical race performance to derive insight of drivers’ success. For the purposes of this project, the perspective of a race engineer working for the F1 constructor McLaren was considered. As the constructor is seeking to gain a competitive advantage for the upcoming F1 season, race performance data concerning previous seasons was collected and analyzed as part of a larger data mining project utilizing the CRISP-DM framework. Statistical models, such as linear regression and random forest, were developed to predict the number of points scored by McLaren racers and the variables most strongly contributed to such scored points. The final results point to specific lap times having to be aimed for as the most important variable in determining the number of points gained, although specific locations also seem prone to McLaren race success. These results in turn will be utilized to develop race strategies for the upcoming season to ensure McLaren has high efficiency against its competitors.
ContributorsImam, Amir (Author) / Simon, Alan (Thesis director) / Sha, Xiqing (Committee member) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor) / Department of Information Systems (Contributor)
Created2023-05