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Description
A Pairwise Comparison Matrix (PCM) is used to compute for relative priorities of criteria or alternatives and are integral components of widely applied decision making tools: the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and its generalized form, the Analytic Network Process (ANP). However, a PCM suffers from several issues limiting its application to large-scale decision problems, specifically: (1) to the curse of dimensionality, that is, a large number of pairwise comparisons need to be elicited from a decision maker (DM), (2) inconsistent and (3) imprecise preferences maybe obtained due to the limited cognitive power of DMs. This dissertation proposes a PCM Framework for Large-Scale Decisions to address these limitations in three phases as follows. The first phase proposes a binary integer program (BIP) to intelligently decompose a PCM into several mutually exclusive subsets using interdependence scores. As a result, the number of pairwise comparisons is reduced and the consistency of the PCM is improved. Since the subsets are disjoint, the most independent pivot element is identified to connect all subsets. This is done to derive the global weights of the elements from the original PCM. The proposed BIP is applied to both AHP and ANP methodologies. However, it is noted that the optimal number of subsets is provided subjectively by the DM and hence is subject to biases and judgement errors. The second phase proposes a trade-off PCM decomposition methodology to decompose a PCM into a number of optimally identified subsets. A BIP is proposed to balance the: (1) time savings by reducing pairwise comparisons, the level of PCM inconsistency, and (2) the accuracy of the weights. The proposed methodology is applied to the AHP to demonstrate its advantages and is compared to established methodologies. In the third phase, a beta distribution is proposed to generalize a wide variety of imprecise pairwise comparison distributions via a method of moments methodology. A Non-Linear Programming model is then developed that calculates PCM element weights which maximizes the preferences of the DM as well as minimizes the inconsistency simultaneously. Comparison experiments are conducted using datasets collected from literature to validate the proposed methodology.
ContributorsJalao, Eugene Rex Lazaro (Author) / Shunk, Dan L. (Thesis advisor) / Wu, Teresa (Thesis advisor) / Askin, Ronald G. (Committee member) / Goul, Kenneth M (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2013
Description
The current Enterprise Requirements and Acquisition Model (ERAM), a discrete event simulation of the major tasks and decisions within the DoD acquisition system, identifies several what-if intervention strategies to improve program completion time. However, processes that contribute to the program acquisition completion time were not explicitly identified in the simulation study. This research seeks to determine the acquisition processes that contribute significantly to total simulated program time in the acquisition system for all programs reaching Milestone C. Specifically, this research examines the effect of increased scope management, technology maturity, and decreased variation and mean process times in post-Design Readiness Review contractor activities by performing additional simulation analyses. Potential policies are formulated from the results to further improve program acquisition completion time.
ContributorsWorger, Danielle Marie (Author) / Wu, Teresa (Thesis director) / Shunk, Dan (Committee member) / Wirthlin, J. Robert (Committee member) / Industrial, Systems (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2013-05
Description
The following is a case study composed of three workflow investigations at the open source software development (OSSD) based Apache Software Foundation (Apache). I start with an examination of the workload inequality within the Apache, particularly with regard to requirements writing. I established that the stronger a participant's experience indicators are, the more likely they are to propose a requirement that is not a defect and the more likely the requirement is eventually implemented. Requirements at Apache are divided into work tickets (tickets). In our second investigation, I reported many insights into the distribution patterns of these tickets. The participants that create the tickets often had the best track records for determining who should participate in that ticket. Tickets that were at one point volunteered for (self-assigned) had a lower incident of neglect but in some cases were also associated with severe delay. When a participant claims a ticket but postpones the work involved, these tickets exist without a solution for five to ten times as long, depending on the circumstances. I make recommendations that may reduce the incidence of tickets that are claimed but not implemented in a timely manner. After giving an in-depth explanation of how I obtained this data set through web crawlers, I describe the pattern mining platform I developed to make my data mining efforts highly scalable and repeatable. Lastly, I used process mining techniques to show that workflow patterns vary greatly within teams at Apache. I investigated a variety of process choices and how they might be influencing the outcomes of OSSD projects. I report a moderately negative association between how often a team updates the specifics of a requirement and how often requirements are completed. I also verified that the prevalence of volunteerism indicators is positively associated with work completion but what was surprising is that this correlation is stronger if I exclude the very large projects. I suggest the largest projects at Apache may benefit from some level of traditional delegation in addition to the phenomenon of volunteerism that OSSD is normally associated with.
ContributorsPanos, Ryan (Author) / Collofello, James (Thesis advisor) / Fowler, John (Thesis advisor) / Pan, Rong (Committee member) / Wu, Teresa (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2017
Description
In today's global market, companies are facing unprecedented levels of uncertainties in supply, demand and in the economic environment. A critical issue for companies to survive increasing competition is to monitor the changing business environment and manage disturbances and changes in real time. In this dissertation, an integrated framework is proposed using simulation and online calibration methods to enable the adaptive management of large-scale complex supply chain systems. The design, implementation and verification of the integrated approach are studied in this dissertation. The research contributions are two-fold. First, this work enriches symbiotic simulation methodology by proposing a framework of simulation and advanced data fusion methods to improve simulation accuracy. Data fusion techniques optimally calibrate the simulation state/parameters by considering errors in both the simulation models and in measurements of the real-world system. Data fusion methods - Kalman Filtering, Extended Kalman Filtering, and Ensemble Kalman Filtering - are examined and discussed under varied conditions of system chaotic levels, data quality and data availability. Second, the proposed framework is developed, validated and demonstrated in `proof-of-concept' case studies on representative supply chain problems. In the case study of a simplified supply chain system, Kalman Filtering is applied to fuse simulation data and emulation data to effectively improve the accuracy of the detection of abnormalities. In the case study of the `beer game' supply chain model, the system's chaotic level is identified as a key factor to influence simulation performance and the choice of data fusion method. Ensemble Kalman Filtering is found more robust than Extended Kalman Filtering in a highly chaotic system. With appropriate tuning, the improvement of simulation accuracy is up to 80% in a chaotic system, and 60% in a stable system. In the last study, the integrated framework is applied to adaptive inventory control of a multi-echelon supply chain with non-stationary demand. It is worth pointing out that the framework proposed in this dissertation is not only useful in supply chain management, but also suitable to model other complex dynamic systems, such as healthcare delivery systems and energy consumption networks.
ContributorsWang, Shanshan (Author) / Wu, Teresa (Thesis advisor) / Fowler, John (Thesis advisor) / Pfund, Michele (Committee member) / Li, Jing (Committee member) / Pavlicek, William (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2010