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Attendance Elasticity of Win Percentage in the NBA: An Exploration of the Effects of Team Performance on Home Game Attendance

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In the wide world of sports, not all fan bases are created equally—especially in the NBA. Differences in factors like tradition, history, team performance amongst teams make each fan base distinctly unique. This paper will analyze how team performance effects

In the wide world of sports, not all fan bases are created equally—especially in the NBA. Differences in factors like tradition, history, team performance amongst teams make each fan base distinctly unique. This paper will analyze how team performance effects one component of fan behavior: home game attendance. Using win-loss data and home game attendance data for each NBA team from 2001 to 2017, I will construct statistical models to estimate how great of an impact team performance has on each team’s home game attendance. I expect each team’s fan base to respond differently to changes in their team’s win-loss record. This paper will also attempt to quantify other facts that impact attendance at NBA games, including year-to-year changes in team salary expenditures, regional income, and the number of star players playing for the team. Finally, this paper will explore the factors that affect home game attendance for specific games within a given season—things like weather, strength of opponent, and win streaks. Ultimately, the goal of this paper will be to provide NBA business analysts with resources to more precisely anticipate their team’s home game attendance. The ability to understand what motivates the behavior of a fan base is invaluable in creating a marketing strategy that drives fans to the arena. This paper will help to identify teams that are most susceptible to significant fluctuations in attendance and outline alternative strategies to positioning their product offering effectively to fans.

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2018-05

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Analyzing the Rise of the Strikeout in 21st Century Baseball

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This project looks at the change in strikeout patterns over the past 19 years of Major League Baseball. New research in 2001 revolutionized the pitching statistics field, and non-coincidentally, the number of strikeouts has ballooned since then. I first detail

This project looks at the change in strikeout patterns over the past 19 years of Major League Baseball. New research in 2001 revolutionized the pitching statistics field, and non-coincidentally, the number of strikeouts has ballooned since then. I first detail the statistical nature of the increase, looking at where the additional strikeouts are coming from. Then, a discussion of why this has happened, referencing changes in baseball strategy and talent usage optimization follows. The changes in the ways MLB teams use their pitching staffs are largely the cause of this increase. Similar research is cited to confirm that these strategy changes are valid and are having the effect of increasing strikeouts in the game. Strikeout numbers are then compared to other pitching statistics over the years to determine whether the increase has had any effect on other pitching metrics. Lastly, overall team success is looked at as a verification method as to whether the increased focus on increasing strikeouts has created positive results for major league teams. Teams making the MLB playoffs consistently ranked much higher than non-qualifying teams in terms of strikeout rates. Also included in the project are the details of data acquisition and manipulation, to ensure the figures used are valid. Ideas for future research and further work on the topic are included, as the amount of data available in this field is quite staggering. Further analysis could dive into the ways pitches themselves are changing, rather than looking at pitching outcomes. Overall, the project details and explains a major shift in the way baseball has been played over the last 19 years, complete with both pure data analysis and supplementary commentary and explanation

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2019-05

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Touchdowns to TV

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In this research paper I explore former male athletes, specifically professional football players entering local journalism. Research paired with interviews in regards to the topic explain why there are nearly 10 former NFL players in local markets where an NFL

In this research paper I explore former male athletes, specifically professional football players entering local journalism. Research paired with interviews in regards to the topic explain why there are nearly 10 former NFL players in local markets where an NFL team is present, and why local journalists along with future journalists should not be worried about the number of former male athletes in local journalism. The paper also dives into the side-by-side statistics of why there is significantly more former college athletes in local journalism than former NFL players. The research focused on more than 100 television stations, revealing that 100 former or current collegiate or pro athletes are journalists for local stations where an NFL team is present. The data is solely reliant on the information that the journalists provided in their bios on the station websites. This could be seen as a possible limitation, however, the likelihood of these journalists either lying or not identifying as a former athlete is minimal due to the size of the accomplishment of actually participating in college as an athlete. The basis of my research is to figure out if former NFL players and former athletes in general are taking journalism jobs from aspiring journalists. I conclude that future journalists are not at risk of losing jobs when it comes to retired football players entering the field of local journalism. With that said, aspiring journalists need to continue to develop their social media skills to compete with athletes’ audiences on social networks.

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2019-05

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The Cognitive Audit: The Effects of Cognitive Computing on Financial Audit Roles of Tomorrow

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Cognitive technology has been at the forefront of the minds of many technology, government, and business leaders, because of its potential to completely revolutionize their fields. Furthermore, individuals in financial statement auditor roles are especially focused on the impact of

Cognitive technology has been at the forefront of the minds of many technology, government, and business leaders, because of its potential to completely revolutionize their fields. Furthermore, individuals in financial statement auditor roles are especially focused on the impact of cognitive technology because of its potential to eliminate many of the tedious, repetitive tasks involved in their profession. Adopting new technologies that can autonomously collect more data from a broader range of sources, turn the data into business intelligence, and even make decisions based on that data begs the question of whether human roles in accounting will be completely replaced. A partial answer: If the ramifications of past technological advances are any indicator, cognitive technology will replace some human audit operations and grow some new and higher order roles for humans. It will shift the focus of accounting professionals to more complex judgment and analysis.
The next question: What do these changes in the roles and responsibilities look like for the auditors of the future? Cognitive technology will assuredly present new issues for which humans will have to find solutions.
• How will humans be able to test the accuracy and completeness of the decisions derived by cognitive systems?
• If cognitive computing systems rely on supervised learning, what is the most effective way to train systems?
• How will cognitive computing fair in an industry that experiences ever-changing industry regulations?
• Will cognitive technology enhance the quality of audits?
In order to answer these questions and many more, I plan on examining how cognitive technologies evolved into their use today. Based on this historic trajectory, stakeholder interviews, and industry research, I will forecast what auditing jobs may look like in the near future taking into account rapid advances in cognitive computing.
The conclusions forecast a future in auditing that is much more accurate, timely, and pleasant. Cognitive technologies allow auditors to test entire populations of transactions, to tackle audit issues on a more continuous basis, to alleviate the overload of work that occurs after fiscal year-end, and to focus on client interaction.

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2018-05

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The Winning Losers: Combatting the Economic and Competitive Balance Effects of Tanking in the National Basketball Association

Description

In order to establish sustainable parity in competition year over year, all four major professional sports organizations in the United States have established a first-year draft with an order decided or influenced by their Win-Loss record the previous year. The

In order to establish sustainable parity in competition year over year, all four major professional sports organizations in the United States have established a first-year draft with an order decided or influenced by their Win-Loss record the previous year. The assumption is that this draft structure should keep all teams competitive. Rather, there is an overwhelming shift to analytical problem-solving that suggests building a winning team requires a period of losing and collecting young talent. The separation has become so apparent that it has been referred to as, “Twelve teams a-tanking.” (Boras, 2018) The trend was so pronounced this last season that the seven worst teams that held their own pick all lost by more than 15 points in the span of two days.(Sheinin, 2018) This leaves the ratio of games with a 15 point or more point differential to that of less than 15 points was 8:9 on the date described by Sheinin, as opposed to the usual ratio of 2:5 for the rest of the season. This stretch of games occurred during a pivotal time in the season and should have garnered high interest for entertainment as teams grapple for playoff position heading into the post season. Instead, viewers were treated to seven blow-out games. In this thesis, the effects of tanking will be studied as it pertains to the NBA, as a whole, losing attendance in multiple aspects. This applies directly to the value of sponsorships in the NBA. In short, this thesis will answer three of questions; (1) How does expected point spread, which is highly affected by tanking, affect NBA attendance, of all teams, down the stretch of games? (2) How can the NBA protect its sponsors from the effects of tanking? (3) How can NBA sponsors protect themselves from the effects of tanking?

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Date Created
2020-05

The Value of Wins: The Remunerative Impact of Sustained Consistency in Professional Sports

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This paper is intended to identify a correlation between the winning percentage of sports teams in the four major professional sports leagues in the United States and the GDP per capita of their respective cities. We initially compiled fifteen years

This paper is intended to identify a correlation between the winning percentage of sports teams in the four major professional sports leagues in the United States and the GDP per capita of their respective cities. We initially compiled fifteen years of franchise performance along with economic data from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis to analyze this relationship. After converting the data into a language recognized by Stata, the regression tool we used, we ran multiple regressions to find relevant correlations based off of our inputs. This paper will show the value of the economic impact of strong or weak performance throughout various economic cycles through data analysis and conclusions drawn from the results of the regression analysis.

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Date Created
2017-12

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Age and Upside: Why Youth Should be Valued in the NBA

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The National Basketball Association is the world's most recognized professional basketball league. Athletes such as Kobe Bryant and Lebron James have transcended from being high school standouts to global icons, but their careers might not have panned out the same

The National Basketball Association is the world's most recognized professional basketball league. Athletes such as Kobe Bryant and Lebron James have transcended from being high school standouts to global icons, but their careers might not have panned out the same way if they weren't allowed to declare for the draft immediately upon graduating high school. In 2005, the NBA and the NBA Players Association agreed to implement an age limit for athletes declaring for the NBA Draft. Although this was supposed to reduce the quantity of younger players declaring for the draft, the rule has been ineffective as the average age of lottery picks, also known as the first 14 picks of the draft, has decreased since the rule's implementation. Adam Silver, the current commissioner of the NBA, has been vocal about potentially raising the minimum draft-eligible age once more because of NBA team executives calling recent draft picks unfit for the NBA. The purpose of this research is to examine if lottery picks are indeed "NBA ready" upon being drafted, and if there is a correlation between the age at which they are drafted, the pick at which they were selected, the length of their career, and their career success. Various statistical analysis techniques are utilized, such as the calculation of R-squared values and correlation coefficients, and the usage of t-tests and multiple regressions. Box score statistics such as minutes per game, points per game, rebounds, and assists as well as advanced metrics such as player efficiency rating, win shares, box plus/minus, and value over replacement player were the focal point of this study. Players drafted with lottery selections from the 1985-2016 drafts had their career statistics compiled and examined for this analysis in order to adequately conduct the regressions. The results indicate that although lottery picks are having a decreasing immediate impact upon being drafted, the younger an athlete is drafted, the more long-term success they can expect to achieve in the NBA.

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Date Created
2018-05

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A Study of League Influence on the Overall Health and Perceptions of Major League Baseball and the National Football League

Description

We were driven by the question: what is happening to the popularity of Major League Baseball? In order to answer this question we compared the league structure of Major League Baseball with that of the National Football League. We were

We were driven by the question: what is happening to the popularity of Major League Baseball? In order to answer this question we compared the league structure of Major League Baseball with that of the National Football League. We were able to speak with five former or current members of the respective leagues in order to gain some insight into how the two leagues operate. The main focus of our research was around the payroll structures of the two leagues as well as their revenue sharing policies. In the end, we discovered that Major League Baseball is becoming highly regionalized. The sport is still growing in popularity in terms of revenue and fan involvement, but it is becoming less popular on a national stage. The league is benefitting greatly from factors like the increasing importance of "TiVo proof programming" and a lack of competition. Each league is very different in its own right. While the NFL promotes a perception of competitive balance, Major League Baseball can be plagued by the negative perception it creates surrounding some of its smaller market teams.

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2015-05

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Home Advantage in Sports: The Value it Holds with COVID Restrictions

Description

Home advantage affects the game in almost all team sports across the world. Due to<br/>COVID and all of the precautions being taken to keep games played, more extensive research is able to be conducted about what factors truly go into

Home advantage affects the game in almost all team sports across the world. Due to<br/>COVID and all of the precautions being taken to keep games played, more extensive research is able to be conducted about what factors truly go into creating a home advantage. Some common factors of home advantage include the crowd, facility familiarity, and travel. In the English Premier League, there are no fans allowed at any of the games; furthermore, in the NBA, a bubble was created at one neutral venue with no fans in attendance. Even with the NBA being at a neutral site, there was still a “home team” at every game. The sports betting industry struggled due to failing to shift betting lines in accordance with this decreased home advantage. With these leagues removing some of the factors that are frequently associated with home advantage, analysts are able to better see what the results would be of removing these variables. The purpose of this research is to determine if these adjustments made due to COVID had an impact on the home advantage in different leagues around the world, and if they did, to what extent. Individual game data from the past 10 seasons were used for analysis of both the NBA and the Premier League. The results show that there is a significant difference in win percentage between prior seasons and seasons behind closed doors. In addition to win percentage, many other game statistics see a significant shift as well. Overall, the significance of being the home team disappears in games following the COVID-19 break.

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2021-05

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SustainSports - “Green”: On and Off the Field

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This project dives into the journey of our entrepreneurial startup with the Founders Lab Thesis Program. In the global sports business industry, we knew that there was something missing. While conducting market research, there was little data and information about

This project dives into the journey of our entrepreneurial startup with the Founders Lab Thesis Program. In the global sports business industry, we knew that there was something missing. While conducting market research, there was little data and information about sustainability initiatives that engaged sports fans, especially in college sports. Not to mention, there was no sustainability information provided on any existing platforms that sporting teams use for ticketing and advertising. So, for our startup, we decided to create a website called SustainSports which gives fans the opportunity to inform themselves about sustainability initiatives at sports events (https://sustainsports.webflow.io/). These fans can also earn points and rewards for practicing sustainability activities at home. In short, SustainSports serves as an educational, interactive, and informative website that connects users to sustainability initiatives, community activities, and exciting rewards, while encouraging users to continue such environmentally-friendly practices in their daily lives. In chronological order, this thesis paper will examine the process we took to create SustainSports and demonstrate our efforts that properly allowed us to defend it one academic year later. From meetings with renowned sports enthusiasts and professors to interviews with ASU students and sports fans, we have listened to and taken in diverse perspectives to understand the perceptions of sustainability in the global sports industry. When we realized that there was a significant gap between sports and sustainability - both important elements of American society and culture - we knew a change needed to be made. Hence, SustainSports came to life, offering users a fresh opportunity to be more aware of their sustainability surroundings, while simultaneously enjoying the sports they know and love.

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2021-05