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The main objective of this research is to develop an integrated method to study emergent behavior and consequences of evolution and adaptation in engineered complex adaptive systems (ECASs). A multi-layer conceptual framework and modeling approach including behavioral and structural aspects is provided to describe the structure of a class of engineered complex systems and predict their future adaptive patterns. The approach allows the examination of complexity in the structure and the behavior of components as a result of their connections and in relation to their environment. This research describes and uses the major differences of natural complex adaptive systems (CASs) with artificial/engineered CASs to build a framework and platform for ECAS. While this framework focuses on the critical factors of an engineered system, it also enables one to synthetically employ engineering and mathematical models to analyze and measure complexity in such systems. In this way concepts of complex systems science are adapted to management science and system of systems engineering. In particular an integrated consumer-based optimization and agent-based modeling (ABM) platform is presented that enables managers to predict and partially control patterns of behaviors in ECASs. Demonstrated on the U.S. electricity markets, ABM is integrated with normative and subjective decision behavior recommended by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) and Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC). The approach integrates social networks, social science, complexity theory, and diffusion theory. Furthermore, it has unique and significant contribution in exploring and representing concrete managerial insights for ECASs and offering new optimized actions and modeling paradigms in agent-based simulation.
ContributorsHaghnevis, Moeed (Author) / Askin, Ronald G. (Thesis advisor) / Armbruster, Dieter (Thesis advisor) / Mirchandani, Pitu (Committee member) / Wu, Tong (Committee member) / Hedman, Kory (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2013
Description
Two thirds of the U.S. power systems are operated under market structures. A good market design should maximize social welfare and give market participants proper incentives to follow market solutions. Pricing schemes play very important roles in market design.
Locational marginal pricing scheme is the core pricing scheme in energy markets. Locational marginal prices are good pricing signals for dispatch marginal costs. However, the locational marginal prices alone are not incentive compatible since energy markets are non-convex markets. Locational marginal prices capture dispatch costs but fail to capture commitment costs such as startup cost, no-load cost, and shutdown cost. As a result, uplift payments are paid to generators in markets in order to provide incentives for generators to follow market solutions. The uplift payments distort pricing signals.
In this thesis, pricing schemes in electric energy markets are studied. In the first part, convex hull pricing scheme is studied and the pricing model is extended with network constraints. The subgradient algorithm is applied to solve the pricing model. In the second part, a stochastic dispatchable pricing model is proposed to better address the non-convexity and uncertainty issues in day-ahead energy markets. In the third part, an energy storage arbitrage model with the current locational marginal price scheme is studied. Numerical test cases are studied to show the arguments in this thesis.
The overall market and pricing scheme design is a very complex problem. This thesis gives a thorough overview of pricing schemes in day-ahead energy markets and addressed several key issues in the markets. New pricing schemes are proposed to improve market efficiency.
Locational marginal pricing scheme is the core pricing scheme in energy markets. Locational marginal prices are good pricing signals for dispatch marginal costs. However, the locational marginal prices alone are not incentive compatible since energy markets are non-convex markets. Locational marginal prices capture dispatch costs but fail to capture commitment costs such as startup cost, no-load cost, and shutdown cost. As a result, uplift payments are paid to generators in markets in order to provide incentives for generators to follow market solutions. The uplift payments distort pricing signals.
In this thesis, pricing schemes in electric energy markets are studied. In the first part, convex hull pricing scheme is studied and the pricing model is extended with network constraints. The subgradient algorithm is applied to solve the pricing model. In the second part, a stochastic dispatchable pricing model is proposed to better address the non-convexity and uncertainty issues in day-ahead energy markets. In the third part, an energy storage arbitrage model with the current locational marginal price scheme is studied. Numerical test cases are studied to show the arguments in this thesis.
The overall market and pricing scheme design is a very complex problem. This thesis gives a thorough overview of pricing schemes in day-ahead energy markets and addressed several key issues in the markets. New pricing schemes are proposed to improve market efficiency.
ContributorsLi, Chao (Author) / Hedman, Kory (Thesis advisor) / Sankar, Lalitha (Committee member) / Scaglione, Anna (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2016